Turn the other cheek diplomacy

The recently concluded 17th summit meeting of SAARC leaders at Addu city has come in for criticism on the "appeasement" policy followed by the Indian PM, Shri. Manmohan Singh. Specifically, one commentator states that: Linky 1

However, the Addu Declaration has failed to address India's concern on terrorism.
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Given the fact that India has been a victim of cross-border terrorism for more than three decades now, and by the admission of Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik that "incidents like 26/11 happen every day in Pakistan," the Addu Declaration has clubbed terrorism, transnational organised crimes, illegal trafficking in narcotics and psychotropic substances, illegal human trafficking, piracy and smuggling of small arms together, albeit briefly.

One certainly cannot be in an eternal state of aggressive diplomacy (aka) jingoistic fervor to make a point. Given the enormity of challenges in ensuring connectivity to the Northeast of India, and securing energy resources from Nepal and Bhutan in a grid that spans India and Bangladesh, it would have been suicidal to score an own goal of further persisting with an India-Pakistan equal-equal. India needs to handle Pakistan and vice versa, but these are bilateral issues that need not stalemate a multilateral initiative such as SAARC. In fact, given the Indian reluctance to make J&K, crossborder terrorism as de jure multilateral initiatives, it has been a big surprise that a forum such as SAARC has been hijacked by the India-Pakistan status quo. Divorcing Indian problems with cross-border terror emanating from Pakistan in a multilateral setting that allows the leeway to speak broadly and widely and cutting across many boundaries can at best be termed "Turn the other cheek" diplomacy, at worst as sell-out. I would rather have it the former than the latter. At the very least, it behooves to understand the Prime Minister's logic before mounting noisy protestations at his supposed "sell-outs."

1) From his inaugural address at the summit: Linky 2
On cutting down the sensitive list:

I am happy to announce that, in a major trade liberalization effort, the Government of India has issued a notification to reduce the Sensitive List for the Least Developed Countries under the South Asian Free Trade Area Agreement from 480 tariff lines to 25 tariff lines. Zero basic customs duty access will be given for all items removed with immediate effect. I recognize that non-tariff barriers are an area of concern. India is committed to the idea of free and balanced growth of trade in South Asia. Competition begins at home. Our industries have to learn to compete if our economies are to have a future in this globalised world that we live in. We can all benefit from our respective comparative advantages. These include our hydropower and natural resource endowments, possibilities of earnings from transit, marine resources, our scientific and technological base and above all our young population which will drive consumption and investment in the years ahead.

On connectivity issues:

The theme of this year’s Summit is “Building Bridges”. This eloquently summarizes the imperative of greater regional integration, and is an objective to which India is fully committed. One such initiative taken last year was the launch of the South Asia Forum that has brought eminent South Asians from different walks of life together. In our Summit in Dhaka in 2005, I had suggested a reciprocal initiative to provide unrestricted access to airlines from SAARC States to our four metropolitan cities, and to 18 other destinations in India. Connectivity has partially improved since then. We must take this further. We should aim to conclude a regional Air Services Agreement, for which India would be happy to host a meeting of officials next year.

We have been talking of a Regional Railway Agreement and a Motor Vehicle Agreement for a long time. Let us agree to conclude these agreements as a matter of priority. India, Maldives and Sri Lanka are in the process of developing regional ferry services. We should replicate many more such connectivity arrangements in other parts of our sub-continent.

I commend the Postal Administrations of SAARC for agreeing to establish a South Asian Postal Union. India is happy to host the ad hoc Secretariat for the Union, and to sponsor training courses at our Postal Staff College to train upto ten SAARC officials per year, belonging to interested Member States. We should follow up this agreement by improving our telecommunication linkages to reduce call rates and telecommunication tariffs and interconnection termination charges. India will be ready to facilitate the development of a regional telecommunications infrastructure to improve the quality of connectivity. We should encourage greater broadcasting, television and film exchanges among our countries. It is time that we overcome the information deficit among the SAARC countries. We should encourage our people to know more about each other.

In this spirit, I wish to announce the following initiatives that India will take.

We will host a conclave of the top dozen tour operators from the SAARC region to boost tourism exchanges. We will take the initiative to establish a travelling exhibition on the ancient history of South Asia. This could comprise of a hundred archeologically-significant pieces per country to be selected by member States. The exhibition can be hosted in each of our national museums in turn for three months. Post-graduate courses in the South Asian University have started in July 2010. India will increase the number of SAARC Silver Jubilee Scholarships for the South Asian University from 50 to 100. 75 of these will be at the Masters level and 25 at the doctoral level.

On environmental matters:

Protecting our environment even as we pursue rapid growth is essential. The India Endowment for Climate Change which I had announced last year has been established. We look forward to receiving project proposals from our SAARC partners. We will provide a total of ten scholarships per year to SAARC Member States for post-graduate and doctoral studies in forestry courses at the Forestry Research Institute of India, Dehradun.

2) As a consequence of the push: Linky 3

In his address during the inauguration of the summit on Thursday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had called for full implementation of his six-year-old proposal for unrestricted access to airlines from SAARC states. He had also suggested giving priority to a Regional Railway Agreement and a Motor Vehicle Agreement. The declaration made no mention of an air services agreement but met Dr. Singh's desire for SAARC-wide ferry and rail services. In the absence of seamless air, rail and sea connections among SAARC member-countries due to traditional animosities, unsettled conditions and apprehension about the other country's designs, the common man travelling between some SAARC countries is forced to take circuitous routes. In this respect, the eight leaders at the summit decided to finalise a Regional Railways Agreement and complete the preparatory work on an Indian Ocean Cargo and Passenger Ferry Service by the end of this year.

3) From the Addu declaration, some points that need highlighting: Linky 4

7. To direct the conclusion of the Inter-governmental Framework Agreement for Energy Cooperation and the Study on the Regional Power Exchange Concept as also the work related to SAARC Market for Electricity.
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11. To initiate work towards combating maritime piracy in the region.
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19. To undertake a comprehensive review of all matters relating to SAARC’s engagement with Observers, including the question of dialogue partnership, before the next Session of the Council of Ministers in 2012.

4) More on the observer issue: Linky

India today persuaded other Saarc member-countries to undertake a comprehensive review of the association’s guidelines for granting observer status to other nations.
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A three-year moratorium on admitting new observers ended this year. New Delhi believes the existing nine observers is one too many for the eight-member Saarc. The observers are the US, Australia, China, Iran, Japan, South Korea, Mauritius, Myanmar and the European Union. India’s concerns stem from member-countries, particularly Pakistan, pushing for China to become a more involved partner. New Delhi does not want Saarc to become Beijing’s playground. It also has reservations about Pakistan support for Turkey’s bid to become an observer.

5) Four agreements were signed at Addu city:

a) SAARC Agreement on Rapid Response to Natural Disasters
b) SAARC Agreement on Multilateral Arrangement on Recognition of Conformity Assessment
c) SAARC Agreement on Implementation of Regional Standards
d) SAARC Seed Bank Agreement

As I point out elsewhere, the primacy of an Indian-centred electricity grid that is shared with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and that is supplied by the massive hydro potential of Bhutan, Nepal and surplus power states of the Indian Northeast such as Arunachal Pradesh can go a long way to address the burgeoning demand for electricity in India and its neighborhood. Nuclear power can only go so far, and there is a need to diversify the sources of cheap and sustainable power. That does not make renewable power an alternative model for electricity generation discourse in India. Nor does it condone the criminality of transmission, distribution and pilferage losses.

Nepal peace accord and Northeast updates (November 1, 2011)

1) Nepal peace accord: Linky

Breaking a political deadlock that has lasted more than three years, Nepal's political parties arrived at a historic agreement on the peace process, Constitution writing and power-sharing late on Tuesday evening. The Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), the Nepali Congress (NC), the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), and the Madhesi parties settled the future of 19,602 Maoist combatants, agreeing to integrate a maximum of 6,500 fighters into the Nepal Army (NA) and provide rehabilitation and cash packages to the rest.
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According to the deal, the former combatants would be integrated in a newly-created special directorate under the Nepal Army, which will also include NA soldiers and personnel from other security forces. The directorate will be responsible for development works, industrial security, forest security, and disaster relief. Combatants will be integrated on an individual basis, and will have to meet the norms of the security force. But there will be flexibility on age, marital status, and educational qualification. To determine ranks, the norms of the security organs will be taken into account. There will be bridging and educational courses for the combatants.
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A Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Disappearances Commission, a high-level political mechanism to oversee the peace and Constitution process, and an experts' team to address state restructuring issues would also be constituted. The parties have also agreed to complete the process of regrouping of combatants by November 23, and prepare the first draft of the Constitution by November 30. While not in the agreement, sources said a power-sharing arrangement had also been worked out, whereby the NC will lead the government which will hold elections after Constitution promulgation.

More on this: Linky

UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepali Congress President Sushil Koirala, CPN-UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal and Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha leader Bijay Kumar Gachhadar signed the time-bound agreement that commits these political forces for a national consensus on completing the peace and constitution making process resolving the contentious issues in the integration of Maoist combatants.
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The deal commits to integrate maximum 6,500 Maoists combatant in the Nepal Army, offers package worth between Rs. 600,000 to Rs. 900,000 for combatants opting rehabilitation and cash package between Rs. 500,000 to Rs. 800,000 for combatants choosing the voluntary retirement option. According to the deal, the regrouping of combatants along with the return of the properties seized during the conflict to rightful owners and dismantling of the paramilitary structure of the Young Communist League will be completed within November 23. The agreement provides a way forward for addressing the fate of over 19,000 former Maoist combatants living in the seven main and 21 satellite cantonments since 2006. The international community including the United Nations had been putting pressure the Nepali actors to reach an agreement to address the future of former combatants.
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The issue of rank determination will be resolved on the basis of existing standards of the security forces by the prime minister-led Special Committee. The date of combatants' enrolment in the Maoist Army recorded by UNMIN, the provision of allocation of rank in the security forces would be kept in mind so as not to adversely affect the career prospect of regular recruits of the existing security agencies.
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In the agreement signed on Tuesday, leaders have committed to form a high level mechanism to conduct discussions for concluding the peace and constitution making process. They have agreed to immediately form an expert panel from the CA instead of a commission to seek recommendation on the restructuring of the state. They have pledged to proceed ahead in preparation of the first draft of the constitution within a month. The efforts to form national unity government once the peace and constitution making process gains momentum in accordance to agreement signed on Tuesday. Leaders involved in negotiations have said there is no possibility of change in government leadership before the November 30 deadline of the CA. There is a tacit understanding between the Nepali Congress that a Maoist led government will continue until the promulgation of new constitution and NC will lead the next government that will ovesee the general elections as per the new constitution, according to Maoist and NC leaders involved in cross-party talks.

Meanwhile, Linky

The hardliner faction of the UCPN (Maoist) led by Vice Chairman Mohan Baidya has objected to the historic seven-point deal signed by the major political parties and Madhesi Morcha on Tuesday evening to conclude the peace process. During the three-party meeting at Prime Minister's official residence in Baluwatar, the Baidya faction opposed the content of the agreement. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal tried to convince the Baidya group for more than two hours in Baluwatar, but the hardliners refused to own up the agreement, delaying the signing ceremony.
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The rift inside the Maoists party began primarily after the Central Committee (CC) on July 22 decided to follow the path of peace and constitution on which hardliner faction registered note of dissent. The sixth extended plenum of Maoists held in Gorkha last year had passed the line of peace and revolt at the same time, latter Dahal changed the party's political course to peace and constitution. After the Maoist decided to adopt the line of peace and constitution, Dahal and PM Bhattarai stood together and the hardliner faction began to feel increasingly isolated inside the party.

After that the hardliner faction wrote series of note of dissent on party's numerous decisions, and Dahal and Bhattarai continued to push through on peace and constitution on the basis of the majority they hold inside the party. The intra-party rift became even pricklier after the party decided to handover the keys of arms container immediately after the formation of government under Maoist's leadership.The hardliner faction was pressing Dahal and Bhattarai not to take any decision before the CC meet which begins from November 3. Leaders from the Dahal camp said Dahal took a huge risk in party's history to forge an agreement on peace despite the objection from the hardliners. Leaders say if Dahal fails to manage the rift it might cause split in the party. Dahal had taken similar risk inside the party by signing Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2006.

My comments:
a) The maoist integration issue has been one of the biggest sticking points in the whole imbroglio. Now that a 6,500 number has been arrived at, and the integrated combatants' responsibility is not to include internal security, the Nepal Army should breathe easy on this sticking point and let the whole thing slide through.
b) This is one of the biggest face-savers that the maoists should consider as manipulated out of their People's War. It would be detrimental to the maoists' to keep pushing the envelope past this stage. But knowing the devil, it would not be entirely surprising to see such a move. Yet, the presence of Dr. Bhattarai calms one's nerves for the time-being.
c) Much of the stalemate must have been broken following the recent visit of the PM, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai to India. The Indian footprint in the whole peace and reconciliation process was more and more overt following the rise of Dr. Bhattarai as a consensus candidate for PMship. So there you go: India 1, China 0 in a continuation of Linky
d) Another exhibit in this direction is the importance placed to Shri. Bijay Kumar Gachhedar in the agreement. Overnight, the Nepali triangle has become a quadrilateral with the Madhesis becoming a full force in the political spectrum by this very act. Their de facto joining the big players league was not in question given the makeup of the coalition that led to the "coronation" of Dr. Baburam Bhattarai.
e) It is no secret that the Indian think-tank has been in favor of the Madhesis given the cross-border connections between the Madhesis in Nepal and the people of Bihar/UP. Ideally, the next best thing would be to let Shri. Nitish Kumar make the inevitable cross-border visit and forge many development projects with benefits to both sides of the divide.
f) In terms of the internal dynamics of the maoist party, the vocal anti-Indian faction of Mohan Baidya Kiran seems to have been sidelined. Their opposition to BIPPA and this deal is just pure theatrics given that Nepal has signed BIPPA with many other countries before it signed with India. It is in India's interest to forge a dominant grouping inside the maoist plank led by Dr. Bhattarai with Prachanda inside the house as a big player. This will keep the vocal anti-Indian faction out of the camp and with complete freedom to release their bodily fluids into the wind. It should not be entirely surprising to see the maoists split vertically along the Prachanda-Bhattarai axis with the Kiran grouping forming a splinterist "true" maoist faction. This is only natural for a People's War-driven movement. There is a big segment of the Nepalese population from which this camp can derive sympathy over its natural course.
g) There will be further splits into uncontrollable factions over the next few years, but with the main hardliners inside the camp, and with BIPPA signed, India and Nepal can forge ahead in their common paths of lifting the teeming millions out of poverty and desperation.
h) So make that India 1, China 0 effectively an India 1, China -1. However, it is important to note that only the foolish will persist on certainties at this stage!

2) On Nepal-Bhutan relations, Refugee problem in Bhutan: Linky

Two small bombs exploded in a Bhutanese border town just three days ahead of the royal wedding on Oct 13. Responsibility for the blasts was claimed by the United Revolutionary Front of Bhutan (URFB), an insurgent group based in Nepal, which said it had timed the explosions to draw attention to the “gross national sufferings of the Bhutanese people”. This incident highlights laidback Bhutan’s startlingly hardline approach to preserving its traditional culture and identity. This pillar of its Gross National Happiness (GNH) index, has not been helpful in lending happiness to some segments of its population. Bhutan’s bid to preserve its unique identity is rooted in its Buddhist beliefs, but it has to resolve the problem of thousands of Hindu Bhutanese Nepalis languishing in refugee camps and the small but growing Christian population who seek recognition of their religion and to be allowed to build churches.

The biggest blot on Bhutan’s history is its attempt to deal with the Nepali people within its borders. The Nepali claim brutality. The Bhutan government says they are illegal immigrants. People of Nepali descent have been settling in southern Bhutan in the late 1800s and early 1900s, as Bhutan has a porous border with hardly any immigration control. By the 1950s the number of Nepali immigrants swelled to such an extent that a Citizenship Act was passed in 1958 to stem the flow. Those who could show proof that they have lived in Bhutan at least 10 years prior to 1958 could stay but those who could not were deemed illegal immigrants. In 1988, the government conducted its first real census exercise and decided to force out the “illegal” immigrants, perceiving a threat to the country’s cultural identity. But poorly trained census officials who were sometimes arbitrary in their classification of who were non-nationals triggered a great deal of tension. About the same time, the government also started enforcing the Bhutanese traditional dress and language code.

These measures combined to alienate even the genuine citizens of Nepali descent. Militancy grew in the south and and turned violent in September 1990 when protest marches were held in different districts. Schools were torched and local government officials stripped of their national attire. The army responded with mass arrests that triggered more protests and arrests that sent thousands of ethnic Nepalis fleeing the country between 1990 and 1992. They settled in seven UNHCR refugee camps in South-Eastern Nepal. Meanwhile, many poor, border-dwelling Nepalis claimed to be refugees in order to receive aid, and within a year, the camps’ population grew to more than 100,000, according to UNHCR. The United States, Australia, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands and Denmark offered to resettle the refugees and by the end of 2010, 40,000 of the refugees were resettled and more are slated to be resettled in the coming years. It is often these resettled Bhutanese of Nepali descent who work hard to ensure their plight is not forgotten abroad. For them, and for some of the ethnic Nepalis still in Bhutan (about 150,000), Bhutan’s promotion of Buddhist culture has been a source of distress. This festering refugee problem looks set to haunt Bhutan in the international arena for years to come.

Another brewing problem is among the Christians, estimated to be between 6,000 and 15,000, who would like to see their religion recognised. They are not allowed to build churches or proselytise. Several stories have appeared in Bhutan’s newspapers claiming that converts were being paid money by Christians from Western countries, which Christian leaders in the country vehemently deny. But the government is deeply suspicious of Christian evangelism and under proposed Section 463 of the Penal Code that carries a jail term, “a defendant shall be guilty of the offence of proselytisation if the defendant uses coercion or other forms of inducement to cause the conversion of a person from one religion or faith to another,” according to the government-run Kuensel newspaper.

Prime Minister Jigmi Yoser Thinley told Compass the proposed clause in the penal code was “essentially… to deter conversion,” saying there was no reason why Christians should seek to induce others to join their faith. “There are a few Christians and followers of other faiths as well (in Bhutan), and there is no difficulty with that,” Thinley said. “That is good… we promote diversity of cultures. But then, when there are those who try to convert others without understanding the values, the principles, and the essence of the other religion, we have here what constitutes the worst form of discrimination.” While the constitution recognises a citizen’s freedom to religion, only Buddhist and Hindu organisations have been registered by the Chhoedey Lhentshog – the country’s authority which regulates religious organisations.

About 75% of Bhutan’s population is Buddhist, and Hindus, mainly ethnic Nepali, account for around 22%. Bhutan’s Minister for Home and Culture Minjur Dorji told Compass that the passing and implementation of the penal code amendment “may take some more time, due to procedures involved.” Asked if the law could be misused to make false allegations and thereby create religious disharmony, as in Indian states with similar anti-conversion legislation, Dorji said he would not allow that to happen. The Christians remain hopeful that the country’s leaders will move beyond the distrust of their religion and discussions are going on.

It should also be noted that Nepal too followed the Bhutanese role and enforced a "national dress," but that is a tale for a different day.
3) GNLA ban view: Linky

“Recently, the Centre sought comments from the state government on whether it (GNLA) should be declared a banned outfit,” a senior government official told reporters here today.

The official said the comments would be sent “as early as possible”. However, the state has not been in favour of recommending that the GNLA be declared a proscribed outfit, but it would do all it can to wipe out the group. Personnel belonging to the elite Combat Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) and the BSF, apart from the state Special Weapons And Tactics (SWAT) commandos, are currently engaged in flushing out GNLA cadres from Garo hills.

4) Interview with Bertil Lintner: Linky

Q: Do you think the recent peace initiatives taken by New Delhi with several militant groups in the north-east are sufficient to solve the insurgency problem in the trouble-torn region?

A: It's definitely a good step taken by New Delhi. The expulsion of ULFA leaders from Bangladesh, and the subsequent arrests of Anthony Shimray, the NSCN-IM's main arms procurer, and United National Liberation Front chairman Sana Yaima indicate that India is determined to wipe out insurgency movements in the north-east once and for all to clear the area for trade with Myanmar. But the ethnic problems in the north-eastern India are not going to disappear even if the militants are neutralised; there are genuine grievances that has to be addressed as well. Many people in the region feel neglected and marginalised. Development has to reach those areas, and their ethnic identities have to be respected. Frankly speaking, many of them feel that they are not Indians.

5) Manipur People's Party -- Nexus between politicians and terror: Linky

Manipur Peoples Party vice-president Y. Mangi Singh and four others, arrested for alleged involvement in illegal arms, were today remanded in police custody till November 8. Police said a team of commandos arrested Y. Biju, 33, after recovering two pistols and six live rounds of ammunition from him at his Khagempali locality yesterday morning during a frisking operation which was conducted following information that weapons were going to change hands in the area. Biju, the younger brother of an alleged cadre of the militant Peoples Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak, told interrogators that four persons were coming to collect the weapons from him.
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The police are also investigating whether the weapons were meant for use during campaigning for Assembly elections, which are expected to be held in February 2012. The MPP, a major Opposition party in the state, is silent on the development. Mangi Singh is a prominent person in Imphal East. He contested the last Assembly elections from Heingang constituency of Imphal East and his name has been doing the rounds for candidature this time as well.

6) Talks with UPDS: Linky

An hourlong meeting in Delhi between representatives of the Union home ministry and the United People’s Democratic Solidarity resolved all the hurdles in signing the proposed accord between the government and the Karbi militant outfit. A jubilant UPDS leadership said the conclave removed all the blocks and the pact would be signed within the next 10 days according to the time and date scheduled by the government. “We are happy with the decisions taken in today’s meeting,” said UPDS general secretary Saiding-Eh.
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“The changes are very minor and these are not related to the context of the accord. There are four or five such points which the state government wants to change. We had some objection in case of one or two — even the home ministry had some objections to one or two clauses — anyway, all these have been resolved in the discussions and in a friendly atmosphere all the recently emerged points have been brought to a meaningful solution,” said UPDS joint secretary Tong-Eh-Nongloda after the meeting. Nongloda, however, did not explain the minor changes.
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The proposed accord for a Karbi Anglong territorial autonomous council was scheduled to be signed last September, but the date was postponed to October 24. On October 21, the UPDS announced that it would not sign the accord if the government climbed down from the decision of forming a neutral interim administrator. The term of the Congress-led existing Karbi Anglong autonomous council ends in December, prompting the party to pressure Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi into postponing the date of signing the accord to November.

7) In a continuation from Linky, Nabam Tuki sworn in as Arunachal Chief Minister: Linky

Mr. Tuki, the first Chief Minister from the Nyishi community, told reporters that his priority was to maintain communal harmony among all tribes for development of the land-locked State. Mr. Tuki was chosen as Mr. Gamlin’s successor by the Congress high command after the latter stepped down.

Bangladesh update (August 18, 2011)

1) On Anup Chetia: Linky

Sources said the Ulfa general secretary was expected to withdraw his petition, filed in the high court in 2003, seeking asylum in Bangladesh. Once he withdraws his petition, he will be handed over to the Indian authorities. It had been reported earlier that Chetia could not be handed over to India until his asylum case had been disposed of. The Bangladesh government has to approach the high court to seek permission to release him.
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The sources said Dhaka was considering handing Chetia over to India as soon as the legal formalities were over but it was also expecting an assurance that India would extradite the two remaining killers of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman who are allegedly hiding in India.

No idea who these two are, since the last known collation of data showed that they were all elsewhere, see Linky
Another unknown nugget:

Chetia, a Muttock from Upper Assam, belongs to the same ethnic group as Paresh Barua. They are first cousins and Chetia is believed to have been Barua’s mentor in the early days.

2) Rail Bhavan ki Diplomazy: Linky

Bangladesh wants the Dhaka-Calcutta train service to be extended to other Indian cities, including Delhi and Ajmer. “We want India and Bangladesh to agree to at least two more cities which will be connected by rail. Right now, it’s just a Calcutta-Dhaka service, we want it to be a service which connects Bangladesh with India, not just the two Bengals,” Bangladesh high commissioner Tariq Karim said.
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With the Dhaka-Calcutta service already in place, India is now working to link Bangladesh with neighbouring Tripura.

If you missed more of that news, here it is:

India will construct an 18-km-long railway line at a cost of Rs 267 crore to connect Agartala with Akhaura via Gangasagar in Bangladesh, a top railway official said today. B N Rajsekhar, additional member of the Indian Railway Board, said here that the project, second after the Kolkata-Dhaka line, would be completed in two and a half years. A six-member delegation, led by Rajsekhar, yesterday saw the alignment of the railway line and gave a final nod to it. Rajsekhar said the project was held up for a long time and got a fresh lease of life only after Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visited New Delhi last year. "Two months ago the Planning Commission had asked the Railway Board to finalise the alignment of the railway," he said

In any case, we have more:

The train plan is part of a larger sub-regional pact Dhaka wants to sign for better road and rail connectivity, power grid and water-sharing with India, Nepal and Bhutan. It has been flagged as “the key issue” in Prime Minister Singh’s planned talks with Sheikh Hasina early next month, besides exchange of border enclaves and trade concessions. Mamata is scheduled to accompany Singh on the trip.
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India has also drawn up plans to take its railway network to Bhutan and Nepal. This follows China linking Tibet’s Lhasa with Beijing by train. It has also started work on a rail link to Khasa, on the Nepal-Tibet border. India, too, acknowledges the strategic and trade significance of networking its neighbours with its 64,000 km rail network. “Just like Europe, the time has come to integrate South Asia as one railway hub.

Also: Linky

Meghalaya Chief Minister Mukul Sangma will accompany Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his visit to Bangladesh next month, officials said in Shillong on Thursday. The decision came after Mr. Sangma received the personal invitation letter from the Prime Minister on Wednesday, they said.

3) More on integration: Linky

Bangladesh yesterday pitched for a sub-regional cooperation in hydro power sector involving India, Bhutan and Nepal, and equitable share of Teesta River water.
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Asked if Bangladesh hopes to get half the share of Teesta waters, Rizvi declined to mention the quantum but said, “We are for equitable sharing and the benefit of the people living in catchment areas of the river.” Since the larger portion of the catchment area of Teesta is in Bangladesh, Dhaka has argued its case on the water-sharing citing the needs of the people in the area. Indian Water Resources Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal is expected to come to Dhaka ahead of Manmohan Singh's visit next month, but the dates for Bansal's trip are yet to be finalised, said Bangladesh High Commissioner to India Tariq Ahmed Karim.
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He said Bangladesh has suggested India more boarding and boarding-off points for the Maitree Express train running between Dhaka and Kolkata, so that it truly becomes an “India-Bangladesh friendship” train instead of just a link.

4) Will West Bengal go the Tamil Nadu way, a little belatedly?

The Left Front today discussed the government’s proposal to rename West Bengal and decided to request the administration at tomorrow’s all-party meeting to choose between Bangla and Paschimbanga. “Three names have been suggested by the government — Bangla, Paschimbanga and Bangabhumi. As far as the Left Front is concerned, we prefer either Paschimbanga or Bangla,’’ Forward Bloc leader Naren Chatterjee said. The all-party meeting will also consider the bifurcation of West Midnapore, Jalpaiguri, South and North 24-Parganas, Burdwan and Murshidabad, sources said.

5) HUJI-B's acting boss held: Linky

Banned militant outfit Harkatul Jihad al Islami (Huji) "acting chief" Hafez Moulana Yahiya, an accused in the August 21 grenade attack case, was arrested along with two accomplices in Kishoreganj yesterday. The Rapid Action Battalion (Rab) claims Yahiya, 46, was serving as the acting chief of Huji since its earlier chief Moulana Sheikh Farid was arrested on July 26. According to the Criminal Investigation Department (CID), he is also charge-sheeted accused in the Ramna Batamul blast case and Kotalipara bomb planting case.
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Sources say Yahiya was one of the masterminds of the August 21 grenade attack that killed 24 Awami League leaders and activists and injured over 300 including Sheikh Hasina. Describing the operation, Commander Sohail said the elite force had a tip-off that the trio were heading towards Kishoreganj on a bus that left Sylhet late Wednesday night. Accordingly, they intercepted several buses at Durjoy intersection in Bhairab and arrested them around 2:15am. Some training manuals of the banned outfit and books on jihad were also recovered. Earlier in December in 2005, police arrested Yahiya in Chittagong as a suspected leader of Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). He later disappeared after he came out of jail on bail.

Yahiya, who hailed from Chhalimpur village in Sitakunda upazila in Chittagong, had fought in Afghanistan and also in Myanmar for the Arakan Muslims. He studied at Kazi Bazar Kowmi Madrasa in Sylhet for seven years and for one year at Hathajari Madrasa. In 1986, he joined Lalkhan Bazar Madrasa as a teacher and took part in the Afghan war in 1988. After the Afghan war, he returned to Bangladesh in 1992.
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Sohail said they have so far arrested 76 top-ranked leaders and activists of Huji including former Huji chiefs Mufti Abdul Hannan and Sheikh Farid and top Huji leader Moulana Sabbir. Replying to a query, Sohail added 20,000 to 25,000 leaders and activists of the Huji are active.

India and its near-abroad

The Economists' take on India and what it should have done, not-done yada yada, yet for all its agenda and whatnot it does have some truth to it - of course you need to ensure you blood does not boil at the tone of the article.

NO ONE loves a huge neighbour. For all that, India’s relations with the countries that ring it are abysmal. Of the eight with which it shares a land or maritime boundary, only two can be said to be happy with India: tiny Maldives, where India has the only foreign embassy and dispenses much largesse, and Bhutan, which has a policy of being happy about everything. Among its other South Asian neighbours, the world’s biggest democracy is incredible mainly because of its amazing ability to generate wariness and resentment.

Until recently it operated a shoot-to-kill policy towards migrant workers and cattle rustlers along its long border with Bangladesh. Over the years it has meddled madly in Nepal’s internal affairs. In Myanmar India snuggles up to the country’s thuggish dictators, leaving the beleaguered opposition to wonder what happened to India’s championing of democracy. Relations with Sri Lanka are conflicted. It treats China with more respect, but feuds with it about its border

The following two paragraphs seems to be in indirect ode to MMS and SG.

With the notable exception of India’s prime minister, Manmohan Singh, who has heroically persisted in dialogue with Pakistan in the face of provocations and domestic resistance, India’s dealings with its neighbours are mostly driven by arrogance and neglect. It has shared shockingly little of its economic dynamism and new-found prosperity with those around it. Just 5% of South Asia’s trade is within the region.

Too little and too late, the neglect is starting to be replaced by engagement (see article). This week Sonia Gandhi, dynastic leader of India’s ruling Congress Party, visited Bangladesh—a first. And on July 27th India’s foreign minister hosted his Pakistani counterpart, the first such meeting in a year. He promised a “comprehensive, serious and sustained” dialogue.

One thing I do agree is the lack of vision. Maybe before the current economic prosperity India did not have the necessary muscle or economic power to create and nurture a vision. What use is a vision if one does not have the capability to implement it, right? With India's attention to South East Asia, hopefully it has now a better vision and clarity of purpose to take its agenda forward.

Second, dynamic India can hardly soar globally while mired in its own backyard. Promoting regional prosperity is surely the best way to persuade neighbours that its own rise is more of an opportunity than a threat. Yet India lacks any kind of vision. A region-wide energy market using northern neighbours’ hydropower would transform South Asian economies. Vision, too, could go a long way to restoring ties that history has cut asunder, such as those between Karachi and Mumbai, once sister commercial cities but now as good as on different planets; and Kolkata and its huge former hinterland in Bangladesh. Without development and deeper integration, other resentments will be hard to soothe. It falls on the huge unloved neighbour to make the running.

Oh well, Karachi and Mumbai becoming sisters again? It is a dream for the select few. For the realists, it is not going to happen unless Pakistan changes and becomes friendly towards India. Not going to happen anytime soon.

ULFA Updates

Linky

Antu Chowdang and second lieutenant Pradip Chetia arrested in Bangladesh.

Further, Telegraph reports: Linky

Moreover, unconfirmed reports said that a senior Ulfa cadre — Pranjit Saikia — has been apprehended in Dhaka yesterday by personnel of Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), the elite anti-crime force of Bangladesh. This is the second such arrest in Bangladesh following arrest of outfit’s self-styled captain Antu Chowdang and second lieutenant Pradip Chetia in Bangladesh within this month.

Meanwhile, some points I gleaned from the Press statements and a close re-examination of the past one year of reports:
1) MHA under P. Chidambaram, Ajay Maken and G.K.Pillai has NOT been keen on letting the ULFA bigwigs go on bail. For this, the precedent has been from January 1992 when the first round of preliminary talks with a five-member ULFA delegation comprising 'general secretary' Anup Chetia and 'central committee' members Robin Neog, Kamal Bora, Siddhartha Phukan and Sabhan Saikia was held with then prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao in New Delhi. All the five leaders were granted safe passage to attend the meeting and then allowed to leave to convince their other top leaders for the peace talks. But the delegation led by Anup Chetia jumped parole never to return. It has only been the push of CM Tarun Gogoi that has made PC reconsider his position. So if things go awry, you know who to blame.
2) What goes on from now onwards is going to be/will be determined by the ULFA Central Committee. There are/were 15 (16 by some accounts and Ramu Mech retired) Central Committee Members: 1) Arabinda Rajkhowa, 2) Pradeep Gogoi, 3) Sashadhar Choudhury, 4) Chitrabon Hazarika, 5) Bhimkanta Buragohain, 6) Mithinga Daimary, 7) Pranati Deka, 8) Raju Barua. Most of these 8 form the Political Wing of ULFA, in contrast to the Military Wing. All of them have been/will be released on bail, and the process is ongoing as I write.
3) Of the 7 remaining, Anup Chetia is in jail in BD, while Poresh Borua and Jiban Moran complete the "living" 11. Three ULFA central committee members (Ashanta Bagh Phukan, Robin Neog and Benning Rabha) have remained untraceable since the crackdown against the insurgent outfit by the Royal Bhutan Army in 2003, while another member, Robin Handique, passed away due to kidney failure in August 2005.
4) Of the Military Wing, the most potent folks that remain outside are the five top commanders of Borua: 1) Bijoy Chinese (a) Bijoy Das, 2) Jiban Moran, 3) Drishti Rajkhowa (a) Mohan Rabha, 4) Subal Mahanta, 5) Hira Sarania. Others of interest include Nayan Medhi, Pranjal Saikia, Ujjal Gohain, Dibakar Moran. Paresh Barua is believed to be in China, while, Antu Chowdang and Drishti Rajkhowa are in Bangladesh. Hira Sarania moves between Bangladesh and India and Jiban Moran is in Myanmar.
5) Some info on the various battalions:
a) 28th Battalion is Burma-based and hence operates in Upper Assam. Two out of three companies of the 28th battalion have announced unilateral ceasefire with Mrinal Hazarika, a former commander and 14 other leaders of Charlie and Alpha companies, coming out on June 24, 2008. The Bravo Company commander is Sujit Moran (said to be in not much control these days) and overall commander of the 28th battalion is Bijoy Chinese.
b) 27th Battalion: Centered out of the hilly southern district of Karbi Anglong. Mridul Kalita, the commander in charge of the 27th battalion was killed in March 2010 near Udalgiri. The 27th Battalion is commanded by Pallab Saikia (a close aide of Poresh Borua). Another top commander is Nayan Medhi.
c) 709th Battalion: Based out of districts such as Nalbari, Baksa, Chirang and Kamrup, that share a border with Bhutan. Commanded by Hira Sarania. It is believed that Sarania is closer to Rajkhowa than Borua.
d) 109th Battalion: Active in lower Assam districts, particularly in Goalpara and Kamrup. Top commanders of this battalion include Drishti Rajkhowa, Gulit Das and Pradeep Basumatary. SATP had this to say on Sept 27, 2010: "Meanwhile, sources said that the Bangladesh Government has in its custody senior ULFA leader Drishti Rajkhowa who happens to be a close ally of the outfit’s ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Barua. Government sources indicate that Dristi Rajkhowa could be handed over to India any day now," but this has not happened so far (to the best of my knowledge).
6) While Op All Clear is clearly noted as the operation responsible for breaking the back-bone of ULFA, it was the loss of turf due to activation of the COIN grid in Arunachal Pradesh and the subsequent clashes with NSCN(IM) that further liquidated their terrain that was clearly responsible for the coming out of the Alpha and Charlie companies of the 28th battalion.
7) There have been three terrains where ULFA had taken sustenance: Bhutan, Bangladesh and Burma. While Bhutan seems to have cleansed up, there has been some regrouping in the Lower Assam districts with proximity to Bhutan. Bangladesh is a sordid tale of much delayedness. There is no reason to hope that things would be wiped clean very quickly, it is a slow lethargic process, provided BAL returns to power again. The case of Burma is a hopeless one. There had been some activity that a joint Indo-Burma action would happen in the Kachin State that borders Arunachal Pr. and Upper Assam. More than 15 terrorist groups have taken umbrage in either the Kachin State or the Sagaing Division. But the clincher is the unofficial "Wa State" (bordering China where the Kokang incident happened) with connections to the drug trade of the famed Golden Triangle that acts as a mediator to second-hand arms trade from China as well as unofficial umbrage. Kachin State is primarily a lurking area and United Wa State Army (UWSA), which is the biggest anti-junta grouping in Burma holds the key to liquidating ULFA, along with Kachin Independence Army (KIA). Plus, there are cross-border tribal affinities between the Konyak Nagas dominated by NSCN(K) and the Tangkhul Nagas represented by NSCN(IM). While the relationship between NSCN and ULFA seems to have been strained, both groups continue to use each other's resources as needed.
8) There have been an across-the-board connection to ISI(D) and the Maoists. In fact, there have been enough news reports of Poresh Borua meeting Musharaff with the meeting arranged by Begum Khaleda Zia's government, meeting Koteswara Rao (a) Kishen, seen in Yunnan, using his Bangladeshi passport to get a Chinese visa stamp under the name Kamruj Zaman Khan, etc. In fact, the former Minister Lutfozaman Babar is in jail in the 10 truck arms haul case. While the DGFI and NSI have been implicated in the hearings, there have been enough rumours that Tareque Rahman (the elder son of BKZ) played a major role in this shipment. As of now, Tareque is in London on a medical parole on a graft charge in BD. BKZ's other son Arafat Rahman Coco is absconding in Thailand, also on a medical parole. Both were released by the Caretaker government of 1/11.
9) The "People's Consultative Group" or SJA and its leader, Lachit Bordoloi, are utterly compromised. They are open-fronts of ULFA and have been seen as such by those who matter in this complex saga. They used to operate earlier under the moniker MASS.
10) And finally, there have been precedents as to why a peace deal struck with only a select few is a bad proposition. Shillong Accord is number one in this long-unending set of Exhibits. Somehow, CM Gogoi has been itching to make some progress on peace talks (with electoral motives in the back of his mind perhaps!), hence the hurry. Even if peace is struck with the Central Committee Members out now, Poresh Borua has an extensive matrix of connections to the worldwide Islamist movement and there is no reason to hope that others (BD, Pakistan or China) will want sanity to prevail in Assam. Plus, ULFA is not even a globally representative body of Assamese opinion, especially with the Bodos and Dimasas claiming their own bodies that are in different stages of truce with GoI. Even otherwise, ULFA is a compromised entity in Assamese opinion, especially with its loosening on the critical illegal immigration issue from BD and its extensive victim profile that includes children and women. As one well-informed commentator gave 2018 for a new separatist movement in Assam, I do not have great hopes for any self-sustaining peace, for which the prime exhibit would be Mizoram.

Let the Games begin!

Updates (November 30, 2010)

1) SAAG says this on Nepal: Linky

It is seen that some emissaries from India with or without “official blessings” are in Nepal to explain India’s stand and perhaps are taking/preparing a conciliatory approach towards the Maoists. If this is so, it will be most unfortunate and it is time India stops countenancing the usual trend seen in Nepal of “public humiliation and private appeasement.”
...
The important result of the plenum is that Prachanda has retained his leadership and in order to retain his position, he may continue with his India bashing at least outwardly!

2) Nepal maoists' open support for Indian maoists: Linky

The week-long plenum of Nepal’s largest party, that ended in a remote village in western Nepal on Saturday, has formally condemned India’s Operation Green Hunt, the offensive started in five Indian states in November 2009 to flush out underground Maoists, known as Naxalites in India. “We condemn the oppression of the Indian people in the name of Operation Green Hunt,” the plenum declaration said. “We urge for a peaceful resolution of the problem.” The 14-point statement also condemned the “immoral and planned murder” of Cherukuri Rajkumar, who was the spokesman of the Indian Maoists under the nom de guerre Azad.

3) Indo-Nepal border encroachment: Linky

The no-man’s-land near India-Nepal border at Adapur has become a free-for-all space with citizens of both the countries encroaching on it to cultivate grains for their personal use. The resident also said that an area of about 12 acres in the no-man’s land under Adapur block had been encroached. Sashatra Seema Bal inspector and Beldarwa camp in-charge Sitaram Sharma said the administration has not made any efforts to check residents who have started cultivating the no-man’s land for their personal gains.
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The administration of either country is not bothered about the encroachment or the uprooted pillar that lies limp at the place that once marked the international border. Any action against the encroachers could be initiated only after instructions from higher authorities. Most of the encroachers are Nepali citizens, added Kumar. A local said the administration had been alarmed over the issue when, a few days ago, a Nepali citizen Gani Miya, a resident of Basantpur under Bara district of Nepal, uprooted pillar no. 382/18 from the border and moved it within 20ft of the Indian border.

4) Rail connectivity to Nepal: Linky

Indian Railways has decided to execute a 70km rail line project at an estimated cost of Rs 470 crore in Nepal as part of the move to strengthen ties between the two neighbouring countries, Indian news agency Press Trust of India (PTI) reported Sunday. PTI quoted East-Central Railway general manager KK Srivastava as saying that the project includes gauge conversation between Jai Nagar (India) and Janakpur (Nepal) spanning a distance of 30 km and laying a new Janakpur-Bardivas line covering a distance of 40 km. The railway ministry has given its nod for the project and released Rs10 crore as first installment for the purpose, he said.

5) Green stump on rail connectivity: Linky

In 2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Bhutan king had signed an agreement to extend the railway link to the Himalayan kingdom as a gesture of friendship to mark the golden jubilee of Jawaharlal Nehru’s visit to Bhutan. It was decided that the lines would be extended from five stations — the other three routes being Kokrajhar-Gelephu, Pathsala-Naglam and Rangia-Samdrupjongkhar via Darrang, all originating from Assam. The Northeast Frontier Railway had planned to extend the railway lines from Banarhat and Hashimara to Samtse and Phuentsholing in Bhutan following an agreement between the two countries. The state forest department will oppose any move by the railways to extend the Dooars rail route to Bhutan as it will pose threats to the wildlife, minister Ananta Roy has said. The opposition from the government came close on the heels of the deaths of seven elephants on the Dooars rail tracks on September 22.

Railway officials said the survey on the three stretches of Assam was complete but a similar exercise in Bengal was held up because of land encroachment. “We own land on the two stretches (of Bengal) but they are already encroached upon by a number of families. When we discussed the project with the district magistrate of Jalpaiguri and the divisional commissioner of Jalpaiguri, we were assured that an alternative land would be provided,” said S. Singh, the divisional railway manager of Alipurduar which falls under the NFR. “We agreed to it but now we have no clue about the statements made by the forest department.”

6) AFSPA: Linky

Government today ruled out revoking the controversial Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act from "some" of the North-Eastern states in the wake of the security situation there. Minister of State for Home Affairs Mullappally Ramachandran stated this in reply to a question in Lok Sabha. The members of the House had asked whether the government was contemplating withdrawing the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act from North-Eastern states including Manipur. "No, Madam. In view of security situation in some of the NE states, it is necessary that the Act continues to be in force," the Minister said.

7) ANVC update: Linky

Meghalaya Chief Minister Mukul Sangma today said his government was examining the demands of the Achik National Volunteer Council, the Garo rebel outfit, which is currently engaged in tripartite talks. "The group has scaled down from its demand for a separate Garoland state to that of a Garo Hills Territorial Council in line with the Bodo Territorial Council of Assam. The matter is under consideration," Sangma said in reponse to a question in the state Assembly.

Kishen and other terrorists update, and BIMSTEC meet

1) First, on Kishen: Linky

The poster signed by an unknown entity calling itself Tribal Platoon says "We will not allow the misuse of Shaheed Kishenji for selfish gains." What has triggered the debate is the use of the term shaheed before Kishenji's name which suggests that he is dead.

More from HT Linky

Kishen, the elusive Maoist leader, might have been injured in a 12-hour-long gunbattle between the rebels and the security forces near Lalgarh, around 160 Km southwest of Kolkata. Kishenji, the elusive Maoist leader, might have been injured in a 12-hour-long gunbattle between the rebels and the security forces near Lalgarh, around 160 Km southwest of Kolkata.

A senior police official of West Midnapore, not willing to be quoted, informed that Koteswara Rao alias Kishenji, was likely to be seriously injured in the exchange of fire that took place at the Hatishol forest close to Lakhanpur village, around 8 Km east of Lalgarh, since 6 am on Thursday. "Our ground level sources at Lakhanpur have informed us that around 15 Maoists have died in the battle. While a section of informers said Kishen suffered a bullet injury to his leg, another group said he might be dead. We can't be sure till we find the bodies," the officer said.
...
The gunbattle started after the security forces were tipped off that a group of PLGA guerrillas and Maoist leaders had convened at the Hatishol forest, adjacent to Lakhanpur. "The security forces reached the spot around 6 am and the gun battle started. It went on for nearly 12 hours," the senior cop said. Lakhanpur, where the gunbattle took place on Thursday, was the place where Kishen was reportedly cornered on October 22, when the rebel leader was to release Atindranath Dutta, the abducted Officer-in-Charge of Sankrail police station. It was at the same Hatishol forest where he met with media persons and formally released Dutta the same day.

IE adds: Linky

Terming Mansaram alias Bikas, a second rank Maoist leader active in Lalgarh, as traitor, another poster announces reads that he has forgotten his own community and people will punish him, said a police officer. The third stated, “We will not tolerate if Marshall is insulted”. Manoj Verma, SP, West Midnapore said: “It does not appear to be reliable, but we are verifying the matter.” Marshall was a senior Maoist leader and a close associate of Kishen. But following a tiff between the two, he formed his own group. On March 26, after an encounter at Hatiloth forest, police had claimed that Kishen was either seriously injured or dead.

Asian Age adds some caution: Linky

It maybe recalled that Kishen had received serious injuries to his legs in April during an encounter with the joint security forces in Hatilot forest. Intelligence agencies, however, suspect that the Maoists are trying to mislead the police and the government in their desperate attempt to stop the joint operations in Jangalmahal by describing Kishen as “Shaheed”.

The police also holds the same view. Inspector-general (western zone) Zulfiquar Hasan said, “We do not believe in the Maoists’ latest reference to Kishen as Shaheed.” Superintendent of police (West Midnapore) Manoj Kumar Verma said, “We do not have any authentic information about his death since April. At the same time, the audio and video CDs in which he gave statements also do not prove whether he is alive. They might not be genuine.”

2) Seems like some progress has been made on the NDFB anti-talks faction with two folks (involved in the slaying of 24 people last week) arrested in Kokrajhar.
3) UNLF into microfinance as the govt watches?: Linky

In order to woo back local support, North East India's biggest militant outfit United National Liberation Front (UNLF) has been using microfinance schemes like women's cooperatives and has already covered 2500 beneficiaries in Manipur and Assam. Though unreported, this has been going on for the last four years and has regained much of their eroded mass base by a unique grassroots experiment, called Phunga Marup, a microfinance scheme aimed at small entrepreneurs which threatens to render conventional counter insurgency operations futile.
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"We applied with the Government earlier but never got any help so we gave up trying. Who will sponsor us," questions a Phunga Marup beneficiary. The failure of the government at every level has allowed militias to gain control.

On the BIMSTEC 2010 summit:
4) Opinions from the Bangladesh side: Linky

The Industry Minister of Bangladesh Dilip Barua has underscored the need for increasing cross-border trade between Bangladesh and North-East India. “North-East India is a focal point for trade and commerce for Bangladesh and therefore several Bangladeshi companies are planning to invest in the region,” Barua said on the sidelines of the ‘BIMSTEC 2010 Summit’ in Guwahati today. He, however, said that to carry this forward the existing infrastructure and connectivity should be improved. “We are also planning to include more items in the list of trade which have very good demand in the North East market. Moreover,Bangladesh has already allowed India to access its Chittagong Port that will further boost bilateral trade between the two countries,” he added.

Pitching for more expansive trade with North East India, the Industry Minister revealed that his government had already taken a number of steps to upgrade the road connectivity with the North East. “Infrastructure and connectivity are the key areas which need to be addressed immediately to get desired results in the field of trade. Bangladesh and India have signed pact on border haats which will be made operational within the six months,” Barua added. The current value of Indo-Bangladesh trade is $3 billion. The flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) from India to Bangladesh up to June 2010 was $ 494.69 million. The Indian government has sanctioned Rs 12.50 crore to improve the land customs points along the border.

Providing feedback on the bilateral trade, Barua said that leading Indian companies are keen on investing in the field of IT, apparel, pharmaceutical and infrastructure sectors inBangladesh which is a good sign as far as bilateral relation is concerned. The summit, organised by the Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC), is aimed at promoting tourism, trade and investment among the BIMSTEC countries. Earlier, participating in the summit, Suresh K Reddy, Joint Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, stressed on increasing cross-border trade among the BIMSTEC nations. He said that BIMSTEC countries should upgrade connectivity and infrastructure to boost trade. Later, Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, Bangladesh signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for sharing information about trade and economic development between India and Bangladesh.

5) Opinions from the Bhutanese side: Linky

Bhutan today said insurgency and frequent bandhs in the Northeast were hitting its trade relations with the region. Speaking at the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) summit here today, the consul-general of Bhutan in India, Dasho Tshering Wangda, said the large number of bandhs in the Northeast coupled with insurgency were affecting its trade. The summit was organised by the Indian Chamber of Commerce and attended by officials from the ministry of external affairs and member countries of BIMSTEC. “Insurgency and bandhs in the region have neither let local businesses prosper nor allowed businessmen from outside to indulge in trade here, with constant fear of extortion, abduction and intimidation,” Wangda said.

Apart from Bhutan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand constitute the other countries in the BIMSTEC sub-regional group. According to figures compiled by Bhutan, there are 111 bandh days in a year in the Northeast. “The BIMSTEC countries and the Northeast region aspire for economic development. Politicians, security personnel and citizens should resist and stop insurgency once and for all. If insurgency is stopped, it will not only bring peace and stability amongst the militancy-affected cross-border countries and the Northeast but will also help BIMSTEC countries come closer in the long run,” Wangda said.

He said the trade relations of BIMSTEC countries with India’s northeastern region were not as good as expected, considering the abundant resources and rich opportunities. On medical opportunities, Wangda said Bhutan alone spent Rs 7-8 crore in Calcutta for treatment of Bhutanese patients. “There are good opportunities for Dhaka and Guwahati to become medical tourism hubs, taking into account their skill, population, size and growth. They should seize this opportunity,” he said. On investment opportunities, Wangda said, “The Pran group is investing in the Northeast. The Tripura government has allotted an acre of land to the group at Bodhjung Nagar industrial zone in west Tripura to set up the proposed unit.”

6) From the Sri Lankan side:

The Indian Chamber of Commerce today signed a memorandum of understanding with the National Chamber of Commerce, Sri Lanka to develop trade relationship between the two countries with special reference to the north eastern region. Signing the MOU, Lal De Alwis President of the Sri Lanka Chamber of Commerce sterssed that the connection between his country and the NE region was very vital. The Sri Lankan official said tourism, fishery, agriculture, connectivity and networking were the key sectors in which the two countries could focus.

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7) And finally Big IT moves more work, jobs to China Linky

Rising wages, attrition rates and increasing scarcity of employable labour are among the top reasons for this shift in the way Indian IT industry has been looking at China. A September report by Goldman Sachs says Infosys' revenues from China could top $200 million in three years, from $100 million today. TCS' China revenues are expected to reach $250 million from almost $100 million currently, the report added.

While bidding for global outsourcing contracts, Indian vendors are beginning to break up a project into pure application development and software testing components. Of these, "non customer-facing portions such as testing is increasingly going to China," says Amneet Singh, vice-president, global sourcing at consultant Everest Group. Some clients are also concerned about growing geo-political risks in India because of terrorist threats and delicate equations with neighbours such as Pakistan and China.

Enough is enough!

0) Rant time: One anecdote on tax issues before regular action kicks in: US and Phillipines are perhaps the ONLY countries where one has to pay taxes if they are "resident aliens" for tax purposes, independent of their citizenship status and current tax home. The strange clause is that a resident alien under the Substantial Presence test has little protection but to file taxes for worldwide income UNLESS they can prove a complicated combination of non-residency in the subsequent year, which is hard if you keep flitting back and forth and work temporarily in the academic system this and academic system that. In every other country I can think of, including India, it is the vague notion of "tax domicile" that is the key to whether you owe taxes or not. Obviously, one should attribute and associate Phillipines' system with the US' colonial days. In any case, the US' economic system is already biased by obtaining social-security contributions from temporary "dual-intent" workers on H1 and L1. I started paying into the social security system of the US even during my student days with absolutely no visible intention (under immigration laws) to become a "lawful permanent resident". If one knew of my personal beliefs on US-India geostrategic positions, there would be even lesser scope for that. But to expect some kind of global "fairness" (a grossly misused word!) in these times of economic woe is to expect the US to not indulge in one-upmanship with little to prove on flat earth. Anyway, SCREW tax returns -- sorry for the rant :). I am not done with this woe that befell me, but I could nt care less. Sue me, please, IRS!! I would rather go to jail than file the returns and break my head on legalese that is beyond a normal (useless to the world, obviously) "engineer."

1) Alternative trade route via Burma -- no news for people in the ken Linky

India is betting big on a Rs 1,700 crore project to develop an alternate route through Myanmar to transport goods to the North-east, as against the current congested passage via Guwahati, to promote relations with Asean countries and develop the northeastern region, reports PTI. “We are betting big on the ambitious Kaladan multi-modal project. Once complete, bilateral trade would grow manifold. It will also help in overall development of the North-East region and particularly land-locked states like Mizoram,” the Minister of the Department of the North-East Region, BK Handique, told PTI.
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In this light, India and Myanmar had in 2007 inked a pact to set up a multi-modal project, which comprises building a port, inland waterway facility and connecting road in the neighbouring country. India is funding the mega-project, which aims at bringing goods into the North-east through Myanmar. “The Kaladan project envisages connectivity between India ports on the eastern sea board and Sittwe Port in Myanmar and then riverine transport and by road to Mizoram, thus providing an alternate route for northeastern India for the transportation of goods,” Handique said. In addition to the Kaladan project, India is already in a dialogue with Bangladesh to develop a rail link between a bordering town in Meghalaya to Chittagong in Bangladesh, which is a port city. The government is working to develop more routes to ship goods in the North-east region.

Critics of the project say that the multi-modal project is expensive and “time consuming.” But Handique said the project will further India’s ‘Look East’ policy and make the North-east region the “vanguard” of policy to foster ties with East Asian countries. Under the multi-modal project, it is envisaged to ship goods from the Kolkata port to Myanmar’s Sittwe Port, which is being developed by the Essar Group at a cost of over Rs 311 crore. The sea distance between Kolkata and Sittwe is 539 km. From the Sittwe Port to Setpyitpyin in Myanmar, an inland waterway route is to be developed along the river Kaladan. From Setpyitpyin to the Myanmar-India border, a 62 km road is to be built to carry the cargo. Finally, from the international border, national highway NH-54 would be stretched by 100 km to touch Lawngtalai, in Mizoram, for bringing the goods to the most populous part of the region. The entire project could cost about Rs 1,700 crore, a government official said. “The overall project is scheduled to be operational by 2014-15,” Handique added. In 2009-10, India and Myanmar had trade worth 1.5 billion, up about 30 per cent from 2008-09.

2) South Asia’s Rectangular Triangle – Nepal, Bhutan and India Linky
Read the transcript of the tape that was caught here: Linky
The subliminal message to china is that any transaction in Nepal can be and will be tapped. The message to maoists is to not push the envelope further. The message to others is that the bucks stops with India. Wonderful, now can we have elections, please?!

Updates

1) UT status for Gorkhaland Linky

The Centre is considering granting Union territory status to the Darjeeling hills on the lines of the Delhi model after the expiry of the proposed interim authority’s tenure. The term of the interim authority, according to the Centre’s proposal, ends on December 31, 2011. The Centre is trying to find a permanent solution to the statehood problem, particularly with the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha unwilling to accept an extension in the proposed authority’s term. The Centre feels there is little possibility of the Bengal government agreeing to the Morcha demand for additional territory — the party wants the Dooars and the Terai besides the Darjeeling hills — or statehood.

Granting Union territory status to the hills is being seen as a face-saver for the stakeholders with all sides compromising on their stand on additional territory, officials in New Delhi said. The proposed plan, based largely on the National Capital Territory model of Delhi, will offer an elected Assembly with sizeable legislative powers to the hills. At present, only two of the seven Union territories — Delhi and Puducherry — have elected legislative Assemblies. The Centre wants the Bengal governor to play the role of the lieutenant governor. However the Centre’s plan needs to cross several hurdles, including convincing the new government at Writers’ Building after the Assembly polls next year.

2) If one had read the Namrata Goswami's four scenarios, one of them visualizes the Northeast as a tourism haven. Here is a report on this matter: Linky

According to a report of the United Nations World Tourism Organisation, India’s position based on foreign tourist arrival is 41, while that of China is four and Malaysia 11. Even Thailand, with 14.5 million tourists, is far ahead of India.

“The pages of a magazine in an airline have beautiful advertisements of the Incredible India campaign. The tourism department of Tamil Nadu proudly splashed the pages with all the beautiful destinations one can visit... Now turn to the page where the advertisement is about the tourism prospects of Assam and the pictures of chief minister Tarun Gogoi and tourism minister Rockybul Hussain stare back at the reader. Is this what Assam has to offer to its tourists?” asked Shantikam Hazarika, the director of Assam Institute of Management at a seminar on Tourism, Destination North East Tourism as an Engine of Growth, at Sankaradeva Kalakshetra today. The auditorium burst into applause — more appalled than thrilled.

3) Updates on ANVC Linky. Read it along with my previous report on ANVC at Linky

The Meghalaya government is examining the memorandum on the demand of the Garo hills-based militant outfit, the Achik National Volunteers Council (ANVC), for a Garoland Autonomous Council. Meghalaya chief secretary W.M.S. Pariat today said the state government was examining the various points in the ANVC memorandum.
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The primary demand of the ANVC is creation of the Garoland Autonomous Council, unlike the existing district councils in the state. The Garo hills has the Garo Hills Autonomous District Council, a constitutional body formed more than 50 years ago. However, with the setting up of the Garoland Autonomous Council, the ANVC hopes to get direct funding from the Centre to run the administration. The autonomous body suggested by the ANVC is on the lines of the Bodoland Territorial Council in Assam.

On June 30, the outfit had agreed to the extension of the tripartite ceasefire agreement for three months on the condition that its demand for setting up of the Garoland Autonomous Council, among others, would be fulfilled within this period. The ANVC entered into the ceasefire with the Centre and the state on July 23, 2004. Though the initial demand of the militant outfit was for the creation of a separate Garo state, they now want the state government to set up an autonomous body, the Garoland Autonomous Council. During a meeting on July 30 with government officials, the ANVC promised that it would make sure that the ceasefire ground rules were strictly adhered by its cadres.

The Rock for Peace concert organised by the outfit in Tura in the West Garo Hills on August 15 was an initiative to show the government that it wanted peace and development to go hand in hand. The ANVC is also planning to take up similar initiatives in the future, which it hoped will pave way for early solution to their various demands pending for the past six years. During the period of ceasefire, there was relative peace in the three districts of Garo Hills. Other than the usual ceasefire monitoring committee meetings with the ANVC, there were two rounds of political talks this year with the outfit initiated by the Centre’s mediator, P.C. Haldar.

4) Meanwhile in Assam, Linky

Traffic was disrupted for several hours on National Highway 37 after protesters blocked the road at Bamunigaon under Chaygaon police station this morning. Several hundred protesters were on their way to block the Gopinath Bordoloi International Airport when they were stopped by a contingent of state police and CRPF. The protesters, comprising Garos and non-tribals from the Goalpara-Kamrup areas, were demanding exclusion of their villages from the Rabha Hasong Autonomous Council’s jurisdiction and holding of panchayat elections. “We are demanding that our villages be taken out of the Rabha Hasong Council and panchayat elections be held immediately,” Pradip Kalita, vice president of the Kamrup district unit of Ajanajati Surakhya Manch, said over telephone. The Manch had organised the march to the airport along with several other organisations representing the Garo community in Kamrup and Goalpara districts, like the Garo National Council and the Garo Women’s Council.
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Panchayat elections in the Rabha Hasong council areas were put on hold after various organisations, led by the All Rabha Students Union, objected to it. Non-Rabha groups, on the other hand, demanded the elections be held leading to clashes in 2008. Kalita said majority of the 779 villages under the Council was inhabited by non-Rabhas and hence there was no justification of keeping these villages under its jurisdiction. “Approximately 500 villages are not inhabited by Rabhas, so where is the justification?” he asked. Garo organisations also raised the demand for a Garo autonomous council in Assam, comprising areas inhabited by the community in Kamrup and Goalpara districts. “We have no objection to such a council as long as the non-tribal villages are not included,” Kalita said. According to him, there are approximately 300 such villages.

One has to understand the constraints faced by GoI and babus when such inter-community angst exists on the ground. Not like there is no inter-community angst elsewhere in India, but the situation is so grave in the Northeast that the "rent-a-crowd-and-make-a-ruckus" mentality constrains the bulldozing of prosperity to this part of the country.
5) Elsewhere, from SATP: Why would nt taking to arms not be a career-based move if the state government does stuff to prove the terrorism-politicians' nexus?

Shillong Times reports that the surrendered Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) cadres are slowly taking charge over some crucial business interests in Meghalaya. Sources said the surrendered cadres are also getting the bulk of contract works in North-Eastern Hill University (NEHU). The unemployed youths in the State allege that the Government is tilted towards the surrendered militants instead of encouraging educated youths for productive growth. Sources said that whenever any tenders are floated by NEHU the officers of the construction wing direct the youths to meet and seek permission from Julius Dorphang, the former self-styled HNLC ‘chairman’ and his associates. Incidentally Dorphang is also a seasoned businessman now. Some registered contractors of NEHU on request of anonymity said, "Surrendered HNLC cadres are the bosses in NEHU and they are the ones who control the tendering process now."

According to these contractors, the surrendered HNLC has formed its own association of contractors particularly for NEHU construction works. All registered contractors seeking work in NEHU have been advised to seek membership of the association or they would not be allowed to participate in the tendering process. "We are required to pay a commission ranging from two to five per cent of the total value of the project to the surrendered HNLC association for each and every contract allotted to us," a contractor said. The report adds that the surrendered militants take full charge during the submission of tenders. They are at the gate to scan all tenderers and oversee the entire tender process. Contractors are actually short listed and selected by these former militants. Sources have also informed that most of the parking bays under the Meghalaya Urban Development Agency (MUDA), too, are controlled by the surrendered HNLC cadres.

6) It was only recently feared the a tri-some on motorcycles would launch attacks on paras and melt away in the crowd. I am seeing the first report of such a modus operandi. Linky

A surprise attack by a Maoist trio on a CRPF camp in Vishnugarh near Bokaro-Giridih border and an ensuing gun battle resulted in the death of a rebel in the small hours today. Two Maoists and a CRPF jawan also suffered bullet injuries in the incident. Around 3:45am, three Maoists on a bike, armed with AK-47 and SLRs, entered the block office of Vishnugarh from the back gate where the CRPF’s 22 Battalion was camping. They opened fire and a jawan, Mukesh Kumar, sustained a bullet wound in his hand.
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CRPF officers said the Maoist attack reflected a strategy used by terrorists in Kashmir — attacking an establishment from the rear end. While the gunfight was on, hundreds of local residents were offering a special puja at a Shiv Mandir barely 500 metres away. Although the camp has a 10-point security network round the clock, devotional songs from the Shiv Mandir drowned the sound of rebel firing and delayed reinforcement, said a CRPF guard.

May be it is time we accepted that the maoists' success is because they out-think the cops. That is one reason why we need to neutralize the well-educated strategists in the Politburo. Some of the tribals may be willing pawns in this war, but the key to win the war is to cut the head off (no puns intended). At this stage, there should be no sympathy for the Politburo, even if there is some empathy for the tribals.
7) Linky

A group of Bhutanese refugees expelled from their Himalayan homeland nearly two decades ago left Nepal for Britain on Monday to begin new lives after living in United Nations-run camps for years. Thirty-seven refugees left Monday and will be followed by many more, said Stephen Jaquemet, an official with the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees in Nepal. Britain is the eighth nation to take in Bhutanese refugees. So far 32,000 have left for Western countries, most to the United States. More than 100,000 ethnic Nepalese — a Hindu minority in Bhutan for centuries — were forced out of Bhutan in the early 1990s by authorities who wanted to impose the country’s dominant Buddhist culture. They have lived as refugees in Nepal ever since.