Know your Nepalese leaders

A placeholder for all kinds of influentials from Nepal... with more to follow over time.

Maoists camp aka UCPN (Maoist), associates and splinterists 
1) Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda -- Chairman
2) Narayan Kaji Shreshtha -- Vice Chairman
3) Krishna Bahadur Mahara -- General Secretary
4) Matrika Prasad Yadav -- Coordinator and also leads United Madhes National Movement (not to be confused with former PM, Matrika Prasad Koirala)
5) Lila Mani Pokharel, Haribol Gajurel
6) Futuristan (:P): Prakash Dahal (Son of Prachanda)

7) Dr. Baburam Bhattarai -- Ideologue and JNU graduate, formed a splinterist outfit Naya Shakti, to the right of UCPN(M)
8) Hisila Yami-Bhattarai (Wife of Baburam Bhattarai)

9) Mohan Baidya Pokharel 'Kiran' -- Formed a splinterist outfit named Nepal Communist Party (Revolutionary), further to the left of UCPN(M)
10) Ram Bahadur Thapa 'Badal' -- General Secretary
11) C. P. Gajurel
12) Dev Gurung -- Secretary

13) Netra Bikram Chanda 'Biplav' -- Former a splinterist outfit called Nepal Communist Party Maoist out of UCPN(Maoists), further to the left of NCP(R)
14) Kiran Ghimire
15) Kamal Majhi
16) Sabitri Dura
17) Bil Bahadur Gurung
18) Narayan Kunwar
19) Bharat Bam

Congress camp aka NC and associates  
1) Sher Bahadur Deuba
2) Ram Chandra Poudel -- Acting President
3) Arjun Nara Singh KC
4) Krishna Prasad Sitaula -- General Secretary
5) Prakash Man Singh -- General Secretary
6) Mahesh Acharya -- Member of Working Committee
7) Dr. Ram Sharan Mahat -- Former Finance Minister
8) Sujata Koirala -- Former Deputy PM and Former Foreign Minister, Daughter of Girija Prasad Koirala
9) Shekhar Koirala (Son of Keshav Prasad Koirala and cousin of Sujata)
10) Shashank Koirala (Son of Bisheshar Prasad Koirala and cousin of Sujata)
11) Gopal Man Shrestha, Nabindra Raj Joshi -- Central Committee Members
12) Futuristan: Gagan Thapa, Gururaj Ghimire, Pradeep Poudel

Sushil Koirala -- now deceased, Former NC President and Former PM

Marxist-Leninist camp aka CPN(ML) and associates 
1) Khadaga Prasad Sharma Oli -- incumbent PM
2) Subas Nembang -- Deputy Leader of Party
3) Kamal Thapa -- Chairman of Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (Nepal), Deputy PM, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Local Development
4) Bijaya Kumar Gachhedhar -- Chairman of Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (Loktantrik), Deputy PM and only Madhesi in the current government
5) C. P. Mainali -- Deputy PM, Minister for Women, Children and Social Welfare
6) Bhim Rawal -- Deputy PM, Defense Minister
7) Chitra Bahadur K. C. -- Deputy PM, Minister for Poverty Alleviation, Chairman of Rashtriya Janmorcha Nepal

8) Bishnu Poudel -- Finance Minister
9) Bishnu Rimal -- Chief Political Advisor of KP Sharma Oli
10) Radhika Shakya -- Wife of KP Sharma Oli
11) Sher Dhan Rai -- Minister for Information and Communication and Official Nepal government spokesperson
12) Devendra Karki -- Minister of Physical Infrastructure
13) Top Bahadur Rayamaji -- Minister for Energy
14) Shakti Basnet -- Home Minister

15) Jhalanath Khanal -- Former PM of Nepal
16) Madhav Kumar Nepal -- Former PM of Nepal
17) Khil Raj Regmi
18) Mohan Shrestha -- Aide of Kamal Thapa
19) Narayan Man Bijukche Rohit -- Chairman of Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party (Nepal) 
20) Ananda Prasad Pokharel -- Minister for Tourism and Civil Aviation
21) Agni Sapkota -- Minister for Forest and Soil Conservation
22) Satya Narayan Mandal -- Minister for Youth and Sports
23) Shankar Pokharel -- Standing Committee Member
24) Bhanu Bhakta Dhakal -- Party Whip
25) Rajan Bhattarai
26) Futuristan: Yogesh Bhattarai, Rajan Karki

Madhesi camp, associates and splinterists 
1) Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (Loktantrik) -- Bijaya Kumar Gachhedhar (Chairman, Deputy PM and only Madhesi in the current government), Jitendra Dev
2) Sadhbhavana Party, part of the Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha -- Rajendra Mahato (Chairman), Laxman Lal Karna (Co-chairman)
3) Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, part of SLMM -- Mahantha Thakur (Chairman), Mahendra Rai Yadav (Co-chairman), Hridayesh Tripathi (Vice-chairman), Mahendra Sonal
4) Tarai Madhes Sadhbhavana Party -- Ramnaresh Rai Yadav
5) Federal Socialist Forum (Nepal) aka Sanghiya Samajwadi Forum Nepal, part of SLMM -- Upendra Yadav (Chairman), Rajendra Shreshtha (Vice-chairman), Pradip Yadav
6) Rashtriya Madhes Samajwadi Party -- Satat Singh Bhandari (Chairman)
7) Federal Sadbhavana Party -- Anil Kumar Jha (Chairman)
8) Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (Republican) -- Raj Kishore Yadav (Chairman)
9) Jay Prakash Gupta -- Head of Federal Inclusive Alliance
10) Jai Krishna Goit
11) C. K. Raut -- supports secession of Madhes

Assorted set of people 
1) Bidya Devi Bhandari -- President of Nepal
2) Nanda Bahadur Kishore Pun -- Vice President of Nepal
3) Deep Kumar Upadhyay -- Ambassador to India
4) Tirtha Wagley -- Counselor at Nepal's embassy in New Delhi
5) Rajendra Chhetri -- Army Chief
6) Tulasi Dangi -- Personal Joint Secretary of VP Pun

7) Ranjit Rae -- Current Ambassador of India to Nepal
8) Jayant Prasad, Rakesh Sood -- Former Ambassador of India to Nepal
9) Arun Kumar Sinha, Akhilesh Misra, Abhay Thakur

10) Wang Yi -- Foreign Minister of China
11) Wu Chuntai -- Ambassador of China to Nepal
12) Chang Fang -- Deputy Minister for International Affairs of China

13) Laxman Tharu and Lahu Ram Tharu -- Part of the Tharuhat/Tharuwan Joint Struggle Committee for the formation of a Tharu state in Nepal
14) Ramesh Nath Pandey -- Former Foreign Minister

Journalists, Litterateurs, Activists and Others  
1) Rishi Dhamala -- Journalist
2) Basant Basnet
3) Prashant Jha
4) Subina Shreshtha
5) Kanak Mani Dixit

6) Manjushree Thapa -- Writer
7) Khagendra Sangraula
8) C. K. Lal
9) Kishore Nepal

10) Subin Mulmi -- Activist
11) Anubhav Ajeet

12) Prashant Tamang -- Winner of Indian Idol Season 3

Monarchists, pseudo-monarchists and the like  
1) Gyanendra Shah -- Former King
2) Sagar Timilsena -- Personal Aide of Gyanendra
3) Paras Shah and Himani Shah -- Son and Daughter-in-Law
4) Devyani Rana (Daughter of Usha Raje Scindia and purported bride of Dipendra before his killing spree)
5) Kunwar Aishwarya Singh (Spouse of Devyani Rana and grandson of Arjun Singh)
6) Karan Singh (Son of Hari Singh of J&K and spouse of Yashodhara Rajya Lakshmi, granddaughter of Mohan Shumsher Jang Bahadur Rana)

7) Rashtriya Prajatantra Party --  Kamal Thapa (Chairman), Lokendra Bahadur Chand (Co-chairman), Buddhiman Tamang (General Secretary), Rajeev Parajuli (Vice President), Prakash Chandra Lohani

Track 2 people aka "intellectuals" 
1) Sukh Dev/Deo Muni -- From JNU and purported mentor of Baburam Bhattarai
2) Sridhar Khatri
3) Ananda Swarup Verma
4) Nishchal Nath Pandey
5) Kul Chandra Gautam -- Former UN Representative
6) Dinesh Bhattarai -- Former Ambassador of Nepal to India

7) Ram Madhav -- BJP General Secretary

Eminent Persons Group (reviews the 1950 treaty among other tasks) 
1) Bhekh Bahadur Thapa -- Former Foreign Minister, also a royalist
2) Rajan Bhattarai
3) Surya Nath Upadhyaya -- Former Chief of CIAA
4) Nilamber Acharya

5) Bharat Singh Koshyari -- BJP Vice President
6) Mahendra Lama
7) Jayant Prasad -- Former Ambassador of India to Nepal
8) B. C. Upreti

Blast from the past 
1) Former PMs -- Manmohan Adhikari, Kirti Nidhi Bista, Girija Prasad Koirala, Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, Surya Bahadur Thapa
2) Former Kings -- Prithvi Narayan Shah (first King), Mahendra, Birendra, Dipendra (committed suicide), Gyanendra

And here is an older version: India, its peoples and its neighbors: Nepal update (July 2, 2010)

Nepal update

Sorry for the long absence, but life is a-churning, as is Nepal....  Please excuse the lack of complete sentences aka social media-type rambling. Take it for what its worth... 

... the passing away of SuKo aka Sushil Koirala (the vanguard of the Koirala dynasty) has opened the flood gates of a rapprochement... of sorts.... Seems like the IB had intel on his impending demise. Plus the fact that the UDMF was splitting away and folks like Rajendra Mahato of the Sadhbhavana party were saying "get the hell out" to the threesome in UDMF (that is, Mahendra Thakur, Upendra Yadav and Mahendra Raya Yadav). Looks like despite the blockade, illegal trade/smuggling was going on (which would always be the case --- happens anywhere there is a border crossing) and Rajendra Mahato might have been pissed or not making enough cash relative to the threesome. So Rajendra babu loosened his hold of Birgunj and he was the one holding the forte at the Birgunj-Raxaul border crossing (70% of Indian imports go through this route, not Biratnagar, not Sunauli, definitely not Nepalgunj, not nothing)...  

So the Indians/IB must have been seeing all this tamasha and forced the UDMF to call off the blockade... And of course nothing moves in the Raxaul-Birgunj sector without the South Block saying ok... This is reality, however one would like to deny it. 

So here is my story, rumor-mill sourced or otherwise... SuKo bulldozed through a Constitution as a mission that cannot wait for the next hour, let alone tomorrow... Why I dont know... Was it the fact that he knew of his near/impending-death... wanting to be the Messiah of a new Nepal, a republican Nepal, a 21st century Nepal?... No idea, but this tamasha was easily bought in by the CPN(ML) and CPN(M) cabal... Was it just a case of entrenched Pahadi elites holding forte for eternity?.. I dont know... but does not smell right to me... 

But there was/is a vertical divide inside the CPN(M) camp.. with the ideologicals (aka useful idiots) led by Baburam Bhattarai saying, "what, what, why so urgent?".. and the Prachanda gang sitting opposite to the ideologicals.. There was already a split with the now not-so-healthy Mohan Baidya Kiran camp going wolf on "People's war is not over yet, we need to torch more buses, torch more thanas, recruit more thugs, fight more battles, till then laal salaam, laal salaam"... Now that Baburam-da has quit CPN(M) and started his useless party of sorts (which had been long time coming btw), Prachanda and MBK are making up... They will make up given that MBK is nearing his saranagati days and he needs the army of Prachanda cabal to sing along, lest he be consigned to the trashcan of history... Prachanda too needs MBK to shore up his wing as the real CPN(M) given that Guru Dronacharya is out of the ranch now :))... 

But still... how did CPN(ML) and CPN(M) buy this SuKo drama all along?.. This is something I dont see a good answer to.. its not just the anti-Indian of sorts, Jhalanath Khanal, but also the old aspiring PM-lot (aka Madhav Kumar Nepal) and that dreg who is the PM now, KP Sharma Oli... All were seeking bread crumbs??.. Makes little sense... the Indians/IB/South block/MEA/foreign office seem to have been caught up in surprise given the quick movement of things... and the quick sabaash-waa-rewa (1-2-3) from the Chinese, the Americans and the Pakistanis meant that Indians said "Start the moosik, pronto." Of course, the Nepali establishment had to retort with "We will seek the warmth and embrace of our birathers up north," but even an IQ-deficient person knows that this is just claptrap. The Bangladeshis, Sri Lankans and Dhivehis do this too, but in the case of Nepalese, it is utter claptrap. China cannot supply beyond a certain point to Nepal and only the poor will suffer (as it is the case now). Even the Nepali establishment (visceral in its hatred of the Indian establishment is) knows it. All they want is for the Chinese to supply their party offices so that they are not using firewood to light up their offices, aamchi Gorkhali be damned. Anyway.... 

One major thing was a few amendments were made to please the Madhesis.. the kicking of the bucket of SuKo + wanting a face saver + things quickly spiraling out of control and losing the face of not holding the border to ransom meant that Indians called things off at that stage... now people (aka Singha Durbarians) will forget the remaining Madhesi demand for re-drawing provinces... none will happen, yes you heard that right. If they did not happen for so long after 4 1/2 mths of crippling blockade, none will happen with 4 1/2 yrs of People's war... So we have 6 provinces now, or was that 7?.. I lost count already. Also, plus, the person who is going to run riot in NC now (Sher Bahadur Deuba - the other pole of the NC) does not want to split one of the provinces despite the Tharu demand or inspite of it. So status quo it is. Each province shares a border entrypoint with India (is that good or bad, even that Pashupathinath will not know!)... the Madhesis get their amendments... the Nepalese get their fuel and supplies.. India gets its face saving withdrawal... now does it mean that the Nepalese will go back to normal or will people remember this blockade for far longer?... Of course, time will tell... but most likely people will remember.. they remember the 1990 blockade.. Why wont they remember this given its so immediate pain?... This is also a yug where every dog and his uncle needs to have an opinion, so yes, the blockade stings/stang/whatever. 

Now what can they do if they remember?.. Nothing... Nepal is landlocked, period... You can euphemistically call it any way you want, go to the UN or even a bigger body, sing dongfang hong or pak sar zameen, but that is what it is.. But did it (the blockade) help for India?.. Probably not... So I am confused... What is the grand strategy to all these tactics?.. What am I missing?.. It is idiotic to assume that the South Block decided to blockade because they woke up on the wrong side of the bed one fine day... South Block is legendary in its deep elephantine memory and things do not move up quickly unless they are serious, important and worse, painful. 

Did the SuKo Messiah mission ruin a carefully built decade of work, albeit moving at a glacial pace??.. the Constitution work was going on from 2004 since the 8-point agreement was signed. There was one 6 year mis-rule of CPN(M) followed by another elections (which was long time coming when I was waiting for that) and Constitution writing was going nowhere... and within a few days/weeks they promulgated one.. Even for miracles, its weird... how.. what.. wtf.. This is exactly what must have happened at South Block... So here are a few questions that make no sense (at least to me) now: 

1) How did the Constitution come up overnight? 

2) Who orchestrated it?

3) How did all the three parties buy into it? How did the greasing/convincing happen?  

4) Why did the Indians get surprised? 

5) Why did they blockade? 

6) What do they want as a face saver? 

7) Did they get one? 

8) If so, is all well now? 

9) If not, what can be done? 

10) What is being to address the colossal intel failure that was? 

Here are more questions that can be asked, but wont be: 

1) Did the INC ruin the India-Nepal relationship by cosying up with the Pahadi elites for so long, across party affiliation? 

2) Is the change from embracing the Pahadi elites and ignoring the Madhesis for so long get a U-turn with the arrival of Modi? All this roti-beti tamasha make no sense with the Pahadis, it started with Modi. Innit?! 

3) Why did India let the mudslinging at the "Indian-origin" Madhesi take traction when the Madhesis are Nepalis? 

4) Are we preparing for a demographic shift in favor of the Madhesis? 

5) Are we seeing a Pahadi (which is euphemism for the upper class partisans of the Brahmin-Kshatriya varna) vs. Madhesi (which is euphemism for OBC/more comfortable in Hindi than Nepali) fistfight in the name of something else? Or is this a regular fight of the entrenched vs. usurpers? How much of this is caste, class and status?  

6) All policies get the imprint of the man in-charge, but does the current change in policy have an imprint from Nagpur? 

Of course, remote controlling happens across party-lines and not that one can do much if Nagpur does frame policies. But one is indeed curious as to if there is a grand strategy and if so, have all things been considered properly? 

In general, I am more confused with time than not... 

Did that non-partisan line-up (of Anand Sharma, Sitaram Yechuri, Sharad Yadav, Sushma Swaraj + Ajit Doval) cremate a SuKo type Messianic effort for good?? Did it?? I will always doubt such certitudes... Will KP Sharma Oli stop barking at the wrong tree now? While the Burnol will take a few days/months to heal, I dont expect the visceral garbage to go down any time soon. Nepal establishment is not a bosom friend of the Indian establishment, period. It never was, it never will be, and one should not even expect anything close to that. Period... 

So what is our strategy now? How exactly is a strategy supposed to be defined? What are the parameters, what are the contours of the optimization? "Do nothing" is loser-talk and I dont buy grand visions and strategies hinged on inaction ... So what exactly is going on in Nepal?! 

Nepal update (November 27, 2011)

1) Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement:

Nepal and India signed the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) on Sunday replacing the old agreement which was in effect from 1987. The pact comes soon after the two countries signed the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement during Mr. Bhattarai’s visit to India last month. The DTAA was also to be signed during that trip, but the plan was postponed citing need for more preparations. These preparations were taken care of by Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai. The agreement was signed by Nepal's Finance Minister Barsha Man Pun and India's Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in the presence of Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai at the PM's official residence in Baluwatar.

"The revised DTAA will provide tax stability to the residents of India and Nepal and facilitate mutual economic cooperation as well as stimulate the flow of investment, technology and services between India and Nepal. In the revised DTAA the threshold withholding tax rates on dividends, interest, etc., are rationalised to reflect the present day situation and developments in the area of international taxation. India has 81 such DTAAs. In line with the best practices followed, we have incorporated in this DTAA also, the provisions for effective exchange of information, assistance in collection of taxes between tax authorities and the anti-abuse provisions to ensure that the benefits of the Agreement are availed of by the genuine residents and not misused by third country residents. In the area of exchange of information, the revised DTAA provides for internationally accepted standards including sharing of bank information and sharing of information without domestic tax interest. Further, the information received can be shared with other law enforcement agencies with the consent of the information supplying country," said Mukherjee in his Press release after signing the pact.

A DTAA enables Indian investors and traders to enjoy tax relaxation in India once they pay taxes in Nepal. Sujeev Shakya, head of BEED, a consultancy and financial advisories firm, told The Hindu, “This is positive and was required as India is our biggest business partner. It will pave way for greater investment, transparency, and allow both countries to avail of each other’s comparative advantages.” He explained that since tax rates were lower in Nepal, investors who had paid taxes in India would not have to do so in Nepal and those who paid taxes in Nepal would only have to pay the differential amount back in India. Nepal hopes that the two agreements together would encourage further Indian investment in Nepal, which in turn would lead to greater exports and help bridge the growing trade deficit with India. India accounts for more than 45 per cent of foreign direct investment in Nepal, while two-thirds of Nepal’s trade is with India.

Sources close to Mukherjee said he met top leaders (separately), including President Dr Ram Baran Yadav, UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepali Congress President Sushil Koirala, senior leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, general secretaries Prakash Man Singh and Krishna Sitaula, and CPN-UML Chairman Jhal Nath Khanal, KP Sharma Oli, Bidya Devi Bhandari and Bharat Mohan Adhikari.

2) Maoist reintegration process:

As of Saturday evening, out of the 13,065 combatants who participated in the regrouping process, 7,097 opted for integration and 5,966 voluntary retirement, while two opted for rehabilitation in the second division in Sindhuli. The November 1 seven-point agreement stipulates a maximum of 6,500 for integration. This will pose fresh problems in the integration process and could throw up a possibility of the Maoists pushing for renegotiation.

Maoist leader and member of the Special Committee Barsha Man Pun said that the clause in the seven-point deal stating that a maximum of 6,500 combatants would be integrated in the Army could be reviewed. “We will discuss the issue with other parties and find a political solution,” he said. “We can accommodate the excess personnel in Nepal Police or the Armed Police Force.” The opposition parties—Nepali Congress and CPN-UML—are strongly against any inflation or revision of the numbers.

While combatants are fast choosing integration, commanders loyal to the Maoist hardline faction led by Mohan Baidya are confident that the PLA would not be able to meet the 6,500 ceiling by the time a new directorate is in place. “The constraints on age and educational qualification and conditions set by the Army will bar many from serving in the Nepal Army,” Durga Prasad Chudhary, a Division Vice-commander of the Sixth Division at Dashratpur, Surkhet, said. “I think the final figures will go around 4,000 to 4,500,” he said, urging his party leaders not to give ‘false promises’ by ‘misinterpreting’ the seven-point agreement.

When asked about the absence of interest in rehabilitation, seventh division commander Parwana said: “Combatants want to either get integrated or take the money and lead an independent life as soon as possible. Rehab would involve spending a minimum of one year undergoing training, the costs of which are being cut from one's package. And then there is no job security.” Adding that while “India, America, UNDP and foreigners” were pushing rehabilitation instead of cash, Mr. Parwana said the packages were not attractive enough.

A combatant in the same camp in Kailali said sneeringly, “Who needs to learn how to make orange juice or rear goats?” Mr. Bhatt, the secretariat member, however had a different explanation. He said the problem began with the word, “rehabilitation”, since it connoted to combatants that they had to be somehow reformed and re-accommodated in society. “They say they are in society, with the masses.” Other secretariat members suggested the commanders had not briefed the combatants properly, and they had misunderstood the concept.

A poor track record and successive failures of both the government and the international community to implement rehab packages in the past is also seen as a deterrent. The process of providing rehabilitation to the “disqualified” combatants who were discharged in early 2010 is widely perceived as “messy and flawed”. Maoist sixth divisional commander Prajwal said: “There is no faith in the government's ability to actually provide rehabilitation. To get a small thing done, you need so many connections. No one wants to get stuck.”

3) Water sharing talks:

India and Nepal are to hold bilateral talks on shared water programmes, including the progress on the 6,000-MW multi-purpose Pancheshwar hydro-power project on the Mahakali river near the border. The Joint Committee of Secretaries will meet on November 24 and 25, Union Water Resources Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal said here after inaugurating the Ministry's pavilion at the India International Trade Fair. A giant model of the Pancheshwar project, the Rupaligad dam, the Tanakpur and Banbasa barrage under the India-Nepal Mahakali agreement, greets visitors to the pavilion. The model shows the entire flow of the river and the projects conceived on it. The ‘live model' was switched on by the Minister. The project is being jointly developed by India and Nepal at an estimated cost of Rs. 30,000 crore. “The Secretary-level talks will be followed by Ministerial discussions at a mutually set date,” Mr. Bansal said.

4) Rubeena Mahato writes:

Monday, 21 November, marks the fifth anniversary of the signing of the UN-brokered Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) that formally ended ten years of conflict between the Maoists and the state. It ended the war, but didn’t bring peace. The Maoists lowered their guns, but didn’t abandon them. They joined mainstream politics, but didn’t abjure violence.

Few remember the sense of jubilation that swept the nation as Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Girija Prasad Koirala signed the document in the presence of senior leaders and the UN brass. The ceremony was held inside the BICC, that later served as the Constituent Assembly.

As I write this, the amnesty case of Balkrishna Dhungel is raging like wildfire, jolting Baburam Bhattarai’s seat of power. There have been five prime ministers in the last five years, all of whom have failed to deliver. There may now be a sixth. Impunity is rife, and the rot starts at the top. Power cuts and fuel shortage have worsened. Farmers are having to take to the streets to demand fertilisers. The middle class is struggling to keep up with inflation.

Never mind the disillusionment this has created in the general public, like a bad dream, the ex-guerillas who had fought for change are now engaged in an intense struggle for the hearts and minds of their own radicalised cadre base.

In the past five years, there have been 4-point, 5-point, 7-point agreements. Promises no one intended to keep, agreements not worth the paper they were written on. Everyone played for time until they ran out of time. All they were interested in was to lengthen their time in office so they could amass wealth from kickbacks and payoffs. Most people were past caring, they raised their heads when Baburam Bhattarai became prime minister with slender hope that he would be different. But they have been tragically disappointed again.

Four years ago, just before the CA elections, I was travelling across Rolpa, the district that was the cradle of the Maoist revolution. Everywhere in Rolpa, hopes ran high. Infrastructure projects that had been stuck for more than a decade were being revived. In Thawang, ex-guerillas were building a micro-hydro power plant. A huge festival was being organised in Jaljala, a historically significant place for the Maoists, to promote tourism in the region.

Finally it seemed like Rolpa would rise. After all, the very leaders who had taken shelter in homes that were destroyed in bombings from helicopters had risen to power in Kathmandu. Thawangis were sure that their time had come. I can never bring myself to accept violence as a political tool, but could understand the anger of women who had lost all their male relatives to war, were raped and battered and were raising babies of the enemy. But even they lit up with hope talking about the future. They were glad the war was over.

The dream has shattered. The Maoists turned out to be like everyone else. After getting to power in Kathmandu, they forgot about Thawang and Jaljala. Parts of Thawang are still in ruins.

The promises of leaders to make Thawang a model commune commemorating the civil war fails to elicit any response from the villagers anymore. And there are other promises which have remained unfulfilled. The families of the disappeared are still seeking closure, thousands of internally displaced people are waiting to go back home. They have waited for five years without result and have now given up on the government.

This is the silence that is mistaken for peace today. This year, too, there will be the usual rituals marking the CPA anniversary. Leaders will wax eloquent on the historic agreement and its significance. The people will not be listening because they have heard it all before.

Why not do some damage control by paying a fitting tribute to the CPA, by immediately setting up the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, or by forming the Commission on the Disappeared? This is what will finally determine the direction of the peace process, how the grievances and discontent of the conflict affecting people are managed. In their squabble for power, leaders have forgotten what they had actually come together for five years ago. What a waste.

5) Interview with Balkrishna Dhungel (mentioned in the above report) in Naya Patrika, 16 November

Nayapatrika: What do you have to say about the presidential pardon for you which has become an issue of national politics?

Balkrishna Dhugel: The issue has been overblown. This is an attempt to criminalise the insurgency and the Maoists.

What do you think is the intention behind this? Those who had fixed a reward on our heads still want to finish us off. They have been trying to find a way to criminalise the Maoist movement and people’’s movement.

Where were you at the time of incident? What had actually happened? It was purely political, not personal at all. We found him spying on us and he was eliminated.

What proof do you have that he was a spy? The government categorised the conflict affected areas and recruited influential people in the regions to carry out the mission in 1996. Ujjan Shrestha used to live in Kathmandu. He was sent to village as advised by Bal Bahadur Rai and Gopal Rai to spy on us. He went back to village the following year. The government launched a bloody operation in Likhu areas in which families of the Maoists and Jana Morcha were killed and displaced. He played major
role in this. The police arrested 47 people including me, Puskar Gautam, Shambhu Gautam, Madhav Dhungel, Prem Prasad Dhungel among others. We were released on bail when Bamdev Gautam was the home minister.

What did you do to Ujjan after that? He was still working as an agent. We warned him, asked his relatives to convince him, party formally approached his family but he continued. Then, the party concluded that he should be eliminated.

Which level of the party had decided? If we have to eliminate someone during the insurgency, we had to take permission from the party command. No district or area command could take decision on elimination.

What was your position in the party then? We had demarcated areas from Tamakosi to Ramechhap including some VDCs of Okhaldhunga, Khotang, Solukhumbu and Bhojpur as our eastern base. Biswa was in-charge of the area and I was next to him.

How did the case reach the court and how did you land up in jail? I was involved in politics since 1986 and went underground from 1996. The incident took place when I was underground. The government launched a massive operation in the region. The party had concluded that he was a plain clothed policeman. Locals were arrested, tortured and forced them to sign in a paper saying Balkrishna Dhungel and Puskar Gautam were involved in killing. I was arrested in 1999 and released in 2006.

What will you do if the president doesn’’t grant you a pardon? I am a responsible party member. Whatever party decides is my decision.

Turn the other cheek diplomacy

The recently concluded 17th summit meeting of SAARC leaders at Addu city has come in for criticism on the "appeasement" policy followed by the Indian PM, Shri. Manmohan Singh. Specifically, one commentator states that: Linky 1

However, the Addu Declaration has failed to address India's concern on terrorism.
...
Given the fact that India has been a victim of cross-border terrorism for more than three decades now, and by the admission of Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik that "incidents like 26/11 happen every day in Pakistan," the Addu Declaration has clubbed terrorism, transnational organised crimes, illegal trafficking in narcotics and psychotropic substances, illegal human trafficking, piracy and smuggling of small arms together, albeit briefly.

One certainly cannot be in an eternal state of aggressive diplomacy (aka) jingoistic fervor to make a point. Given the enormity of challenges in ensuring connectivity to the Northeast of India, and securing energy resources from Nepal and Bhutan in a grid that spans India and Bangladesh, it would have been suicidal to score an own goal of further persisting with an India-Pakistan equal-equal. India needs to handle Pakistan and vice versa, but these are bilateral issues that need not stalemate a multilateral initiative such as SAARC. In fact, given the Indian reluctance to make J&K, crossborder terrorism as de jure multilateral initiatives, it has been a big surprise that a forum such as SAARC has been hijacked by the India-Pakistan status quo. Divorcing Indian problems with cross-border terror emanating from Pakistan in a multilateral setting that allows the leeway to speak broadly and widely and cutting across many boundaries can at best be termed "Turn the other cheek" diplomacy, at worst as sell-out. I would rather have it the former than the latter. At the very least, it behooves to understand the Prime Minister's logic before mounting noisy protestations at his supposed "sell-outs."

1) From his inaugural address at the summit: Linky 2
On cutting down the sensitive list:

I am happy to announce that, in a major trade liberalization effort, the Government of India has issued a notification to reduce the Sensitive List for the Least Developed Countries under the South Asian Free Trade Area Agreement from 480 tariff lines to 25 tariff lines. Zero basic customs duty access will be given for all items removed with immediate effect. I recognize that non-tariff barriers are an area of concern. India is committed to the idea of free and balanced growth of trade in South Asia. Competition begins at home. Our industries have to learn to compete if our economies are to have a future in this globalised world that we live in. We can all benefit from our respective comparative advantages. These include our hydropower and natural resource endowments, possibilities of earnings from transit, marine resources, our scientific and technological base and above all our young population which will drive consumption and investment in the years ahead.

On connectivity issues:

The theme of this year’s Summit is “Building Bridges”. This eloquently summarizes the imperative of greater regional integration, and is an objective to which India is fully committed. One such initiative taken last year was the launch of the South Asia Forum that has brought eminent South Asians from different walks of life together. In our Summit in Dhaka in 2005, I had suggested a reciprocal initiative to provide unrestricted access to airlines from SAARC States to our four metropolitan cities, and to 18 other destinations in India. Connectivity has partially improved since then. We must take this further. We should aim to conclude a regional Air Services Agreement, for which India would be happy to host a meeting of officials next year.

We have been talking of a Regional Railway Agreement and a Motor Vehicle Agreement for a long time. Let us agree to conclude these agreements as a matter of priority. India, Maldives and Sri Lanka are in the process of developing regional ferry services. We should replicate many more such connectivity arrangements in other parts of our sub-continent.

I commend the Postal Administrations of SAARC for agreeing to establish a South Asian Postal Union. India is happy to host the ad hoc Secretariat for the Union, and to sponsor training courses at our Postal Staff College to train upto ten SAARC officials per year, belonging to interested Member States. We should follow up this agreement by improving our telecommunication linkages to reduce call rates and telecommunication tariffs and interconnection termination charges. India will be ready to facilitate the development of a regional telecommunications infrastructure to improve the quality of connectivity. We should encourage greater broadcasting, television and film exchanges among our countries. It is time that we overcome the information deficit among the SAARC countries. We should encourage our people to know more about each other.

In this spirit, I wish to announce the following initiatives that India will take.

We will host a conclave of the top dozen tour operators from the SAARC region to boost tourism exchanges. We will take the initiative to establish a travelling exhibition on the ancient history of South Asia. This could comprise of a hundred archeologically-significant pieces per country to be selected by member States. The exhibition can be hosted in each of our national museums in turn for three months. Post-graduate courses in the South Asian University have started in July 2010. India will increase the number of SAARC Silver Jubilee Scholarships for the South Asian University from 50 to 100. 75 of these will be at the Masters level and 25 at the doctoral level.

On environmental matters:

Protecting our environment even as we pursue rapid growth is essential. The India Endowment for Climate Change which I had announced last year has been established. We look forward to receiving project proposals from our SAARC partners. We will provide a total of ten scholarships per year to SAARC Member States for post-graduate and doctoral studies in forestry courses at the Forestry Research Institute of India, Dehradun.

2) As a consequence of the push: Linky 3

In his address during the inauguration of the summit on Thursday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had called for full implementation of his six-year-old proposal for unrestricted access to airlines from SAARC states. He had also suggested giving priority to a Regional Railway Agreement and a Motor Vehicle Agreement. The declaration made no mention of an air services agreement but met Dr. Singh's desire for SAARC-wide ferry and rail services. In the absence of seamless air, rail and sea connections among SAARC member-countries due to traditional animosities, unsettled conditions and apprehension about the other country's designs, the common man travelling between some SAARC countries is forced to take circuitous routes. In this respect, the eight leaders at the summit decided to finalise a Regional Railways Agreement and complete the preparatory work on an Indian Ocean Cargo and Passenger Ferry Service by the end of this year.

3) From the Addu declaration, some points that need highlighting: Linky 4

7. To direct the conclusion of the Inter-governmental Framework Agreement for Energy Cooperation and the Study on the Regional Power Exchange Concept as also the work related to SAARC Market for Electricity.
...
11. To initiate work towards combating maritime piracy in the region.
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19. To undertake a comprehensive review of all matters relating to SAARC’s engagement with Observers, including the question of dialogue partnership, before the next Session of the Council of Ministers in 2012.

4) More on the observer issue: Linky

India today persuaded other Saarc member-countries to undertake a comprehensive review of the association’s guidelines for granting observer status to other nations.
...
A three-year moratorium on admitting new observers ended this year. New Delhi believes the existing nine observers is one too many for the eight-member Saarc. The observers are the US, Australia, China, Iran, Japan, South Korea, Mauritius, Myanmar and the European Union. India’s concerns stem from member-countries, particularly Pakistan, pushing for China to become a more involved partner. New Delhi does not want Saarc to become Beijing’s playground. It also has reservations about Pakistan support for Turkey’s bid to become an observer.

5) Four agreements were signed at Addu city:

a) SAARC Agreement on Rapid Response to Natural Disasters
b) SAARC Agreement on Multilateral Arrangement on Recognition of Conformity Assessment
c) SAARC Agreement on Implementation of Regional Standards
d) SAARC Seed Bank Agreement

As I point out elsewhere, the primacy of an Indian-centred electricity grid that is shared with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and that is supplied by the massive hydro potential of Bhutan, Nepal and surplus power states of the Indian Northeast such as Arunachal Pradesh can go a long way to address the burgeoning demand for electricity in India and its neighborhood. Nuclear power can only go so far, and there is a need to diversify the sources of cheap and sustainable power. That does not make renewable power an alternative model for electricity generation discourse in India. Nor does it condone the criminality of transmission, distribution and pilferage losses.

Nepal peace accord and Northeast updates (November 1, 2011)

1) Nepal peace accord: Linky

Breaking a political deadlock that has lasted more than three years, Nepal's political parties arrived at a historic agreement on the peace process, Constitution writing and power-sharing late on Tuesday evening. The Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), the Nepali Congress (NC), the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), and the Madhesi parties settled the future of 19,602 Maoist combatants, agreeing to integrate a maximum of 6,500 fighters into the Nepal Army (NA) and provide rehabilitation and cash packages to the rest.
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According to the deal, the former combatants would be integrated in a newly-created special directorate under the Nepal Army, which will also include NA soldiers and personnel from other security forces. The directorate will be responsible for development works, industrial security, forest security, and disaster relief. Combatants will be integrated on an individual basis, and will have to meet the norms of the security force. But there will be flexibility on age, marital status, and educational qualification. To determine ranks, the norms of the security organs will be taken into account. There will be bridging and educational courses for the combatants.
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A Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Disappearances Commission, a high-level political mechanism to oversee the peace and Constitution process, and an experts' team to address state restructuring issues would also be constituted. The parties have also agreed to complete the process of regrouping of combatants by November 23, and prepare the first draft of the Constitution by November 30. While not in the agreement, sources said a power-sharing arrangement had also been worked out, whereby the NC will lead the government which will hold elections after Constitution promulgation.

More on this: Linky

UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepali Congress President Sushil Koirala, CPN-UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal and Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha leader Bijay Kumar Gachhadar signed the time-bound agreement that commits these political forces for a national consensus on completing the peace and constitution making process resolving the contentious issues in the integration of Maoist combatants.
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The deal commits to integrate maximum 6,500 Maoists combatant in the Nepal Army, offers package worth between Rs. 600,000 to Rs. 900,000 for combatants opting rehabilitation and cash package between Rs. 500,000 to Rs. 800,000 for combatants choosing the voluntary retirement option. According to the deal, the regrouping of combatants along with the return of the properties seized during the conflict to rightful owners and dismantling of the paramilitary structure of the Young Communist League will be completed within November 23. The agreement provides a way forward for addressing the fate of over 19,000 former Maoist combatants living in the seven main and 21 satellite cantonments since 2006. The international community including the United Nations had been putting pressure the Nepali actors to reach an agreement to address the future of former combatants.
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The issue of rank determination will be resolved on the basis of existing standards of the security forces by the prime minister-led Special Committee. The date of combatants' enrolment in the Maoist Army recorded by UNMIN, the provision of allocation of rank in the security forces would be kept in mind so as not to adversely affect the career prospect of regular recruits of the existing security agencies.
...
In the agreement signed on Tuesday, leaders have committed to form a high level mechanism to conduct discussions for concluding the peace and constitution making process. They have agreed to immediately form an expert panel from the CA instead of a commission to seek recommendation on the restructuring of the state. They have pledged to proceed ahead in preparation of the first draft of the constitution within a month. The efforts to form national unity government once the peace and constitution making process gains momentum in accordance to agreement signed on Tuesday. Leaders involved in negotiations have said there is no possibility of change in government leadership before the November 30 deadline of the CA. There is a tacit understanding between the Nepali Congress that a Maoist led government will continue until the promulgation of new constitution and NC will lead the next government that will ovesee the general elections as per the new constitution, according to Maoist and NC leaders involved in cross-party talks.

Meanwhile, Linky

The hardliner faction of the UCPN (Maoist) led by Vice Chairman Mohan Baidya has objected to the historic seven-point deal signed by the major political parties and Madhesi Morcha on Tuesday evening to conclude the peace process. During the three-party meeting at Prime Minister's official residence in Baluwatar, the Baidya faction opposed the content of the agreement. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal tried to convince the Baidya group for more than two hours in Baluwatar, but the hardliners refused to own up the agreement, delaying the signing ceremony.
...
The rift inside the Maoists party began primarily after the Central Committee (CC) on July 22 decided to follow the path of peace and constitution on which hardliner faction registered note of dissent. The sixth extended plenum of Maoists held in Gorkha last year had passed the line of peace and revolt at the same time, latter Dahal changed the party's political course to peace and constitution. After the Maoist decided to adopt the line of peace and constitution, Dahal and PM Bhattarai stood together and the hardliner faction began to feel increasingly isolated inside the party.

After that the hardliner faction wrote series of note of dissent on party's numerous decisions, and Dahal and Bhattarai continued to push through on peace and constitution on the basis of the majority they hold inside the party. The intra-party rift became even pricklier after the party decided to handover the keys of arms container immediately after the formation of government under Maoist's leadership.The hardliner faction was pressing Dahal and Bhattarai not to take any decision before the CC meet which begins from November 3. Leaders from the Dahal camp said Dahal took a huge risk in party's history to forge an agreement on peace despite the objection from the hardliners. Leaders say if Dahal fails to manage the rift it might cause split in the party. Dahal had taken similar risk inside the party by signing Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2006.

My comments:
a) The maoist integration issue has been one of the biggest sticking points in the whole imbroglio. Now that a 6,500 number has been arrived at, and the integrated combatants' responsibility is not to include internal security, the Nepal Army should breathe easy on this sticking point and let the whole thing slide through.
b) This is one of the biggest face-savers that the maoists should consider as manipulated out of their People's War. It would be detrimental to the maoists' to keep pushing the envelope past this stage. But knowing the devil, it would not be entirely surprising to see such a move. Yet, the presence of Dr. Bhattarai calms one's nerves for the time-being.
c) Much of the stalemate must have been broken following the recent visit of the PM, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai to India. The Indian footprint in the whole peace and reconciliation process was more and more overt following the rise of Dr. Bhattarai as a consensus candidate for PMship. So there you go: India 1, China 0 in a continuation of Linky
d) Another exhibit in this direction is the importance placed to Shri. Bijay Kumar Gachhedar in the agreement. Overnight, the Nepali triangle has become a quadrilateral with the Madhesis becoming a full force in the political spectrum by this very act. Their de facto joining the big players league was not in question given the makeup of the coalition that led to the "coronation" of Dr. Baburam Bhattarai.
e) It is no secret that the Indian think-tank has been in favor of the Madhesis given the cross-border connections between the Madhesis in Nepal and the people of Bihar/UP. Ideally, the next best thing would be to let Shri. Nitish Kumar make the inevitable cross-border visit and forge many development projects with benefits to both sides of the divide.
f) In terms of the internal dynamics of the maoist party, the vocal anti-Indian faction of Mohan Baidya Kiran seems to have been sidelined. Their opposition to BIPPA and this deal is just pure theatrics given that Nepal has signed BIPPA with many other countries before it signed with India. It is in India's interest to forge a dominant grouping inside the maoist plank led by Dr. Bhattarai with Prachanda inside the house as a big player. This will keep the vocal anti-Indian faction out of the camp and with complete freedom to release their bodily fluids into the wind. It should not be entirely surprising to see the maoists split vertically along the Prachanda-Bhattarai axis with the Kiran grouping forming a splinterist "true" maoist faction. This is only natural for a People's War-driven movement. There is a big segment of the Nepalese population from which this camp can derive sympathy over its natural course.
g) There will be further splits into uncontrollable factions over the next few years, but with the main hardliners inside the camp, and with BIPPA signed, India and Nepal can forge ahead in their common paths of lifting the teeming millions out of poverty and desperation.
h) So make that India 1, China 0 effectively an India 1, China -1. However, it is important to note that only the foolish will persist on certainties at this stage!

2) On Nepal-Bhutan relations, Refugee problem in Bhutan: Linky

Two small bombs exploded in a Bhutanese border town just three days ahead of the royal wedding on Oct 13. Responsibility for the blasts was claimed by the United Revolutionary Front of Bhutan (URFB), an insurgent group based in Nepal, which said it had timed the explosions to draw attention to the “gross national sufferings of the Bhutanese people”. This incident highlights laidback Bhutan’s startlingly hardline approach to preserving its traditional culture and identity. This pillar of its Gross National Happiness (GNH) index, has not been helpful in lending happiness to some segments of its population. Bhutan’s bid to preserve its unique identity is rooted in its Buddhist beliefs, but it has to resolve the problem of thousands of Hindu Bhutanese Nepalis languishing in refugee camps and the small but growing Christian population who seek recognition of their religion and to be allowed to build churches.

The biggest blot on Bhutan’s history is its attempt to deal with the Nepali people within its borders. The Nepali claim brutality. The Bhutan government says they are illegal immigrants. People of Nepali descent have been settling in southern Bhutan in the late 1800s and early 1900s, as Bhutan has a porous border with hardly any immigration control. By the 1950s the number of Nepali immigrants swelled to such an extent that a Citizenship Act was passed in 1958 to stem the flow. Those who could show proof that they have lived in Bhutan at least 10 years prior to 1958 could stay but those who could not were deemed illegal immigrants. In 1988, the government conducted its first real census exercise and decided to force out the “illegal” immigrants, perceiving a threat to the country’s cultural identity. But poorly trained census officials who were sometimes arbitrary in their classification of who were non-nationals triggered a great deal of tension. About the same time, the government also started enforcing the Bhutanese traditional dress and language code.

These measures combined to alienate even the genuine citizens of Nepali descent. Militancy grew in the south and and turned violent in September 1990 when protest marches were held in different districts. Schools were torched and local government officials stripped of their national attire. The army responded with mass arrests that triggered more protests and arrests that sent thousands of ethnic Nepalis fleeing the country between 1990 and 1992. They settled in seven UNHCR refugee camps in South-Eastern Nepal. Meanwhile, many poor, border-dwelling Nepalis claimed to be refugees in order to receive aid, and within a year, the camps’ population grew to more than 100,000, according to UNHCR. The United States, Australia, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands and Denmark offered to resettle the refugees and by the end of 2010, 40,000 of the refugees were resettled and more are slated to be resettled in the coming years. It is often these resettled Bhutanese of Nepali descent who work hard to ensure their plight is not forgotten abroad. For them, and for some of the ethnic Nepalis still in Bhutan (about 150,000), Bhutan’s promotion of Buddhist culture has been a source of distress. This festering refugee problem looks set to haunt Bhutan in the international arena for years to come.

Another brewing problem is among the Christians, estimated to be between 6,000 and 15,000, who would like to see their religion recognised. They are not allowed to build churches or proselytise. Several stories have appeared in Bhutan’s newspapers claiming that converts were being paid money by Christians from Western countries, which Christian leaders in the country vehemently deny. But the government is deeply suspicious of Christian evangelism and under proposed Section 463 of the Penal Code that carries a jail term, “a defendant shall be guilty of the offence of proselytisation if the defendant uses coercion or other forms of inducement to cause the conversion of a person from one religion or faith to another,” according to the government-run Kuensel newspaper.

Prime Minister Jigmi Yoser Thinley told Compass the proposed clause in the penal code was “essentially… to deter conversion,” saying there was no reason why Christians should seek to induce others to join their faith. “There are a few Christians and followers of other faiths as well (in Bhutan), and there is no difficulty with that,” Thinley said. “That is good… we promote diversity of cultures. But then, when there are those who try to convert others without understanding the values, the principles, and the essence of the other religion, we have here what constitutes the worst form of discrimination.” While the constitution recognises a citizen’s freedom to religion, only Buddhist and Hindu organisations have been registered by the Chhoedey Lhentshog – the country’s authority which regulates religious organisations.

About 75% of Bhutan’s population is Buddhist, and Hindus, mainly ethnic Nepali, account for around 22%. Bhutan’s Minister for Home and Culture Minjur Dorji told Compass that the passing and implementation of the penal code amendment “may take some more time, due to procedures involved.” Asked if the law could be misused to make false allegations and thereby create religious disharmony, as in Indian states with similar anti-conversion legislation, Dorji said he would not allow that to happen. The Christians remain hopeful that the country’s leaders will move beyond the distrust of their religion and discussions are going on.

It should also be noted that Nepal too followed the Bhutanese role and enforced a "national dress," but that is a tale for a different day.
3) GNLA ban view: Linky

“Recently, the Centre sought comments from the state government on whether it (GNLA) should be declared a banned outfit,” a senior government official told reporters here today.

The official said the comments would be sent “as early as possible”. However, the state has not been in favour of recommending that the GNLA be declared a proscribed outfit, but it would do all it can to wipe out the group. Personnel belonging to the elite Combat Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) and the BSF, apart from the state Special Weapons And Tactics (SWAT) commandos, are currently engaged in flushing out GNLA cadres from Garo hills.

4) Interview with Bertil Lintner: Linky

Q: Do you think the recent peace initiatives taken by New Delhi with several militant groups in the north-east are sufficient to solve the insurgency problem in the trouble-torn region?

A: It's definitely a good step taken by New Delhi. The expulsion of ULFA leaders from Bangladesh, and the subsequent arrests of Anthony Shimray, the NSCN-IM's main arms procurer, and United National Liberation Front chairman Sana Yaima indicate that India is determined to wipe out insurgency movements in the north-east once and for all to clear the area for trade with Myanmar. But the ethnic problems in the north-eastern India are not going to disappear even if the militants are neutralised; there are genuine grievances that has to be addressed as well. Many people in the region feel neglected and marginalised. Development has to reach those areas, and their ethnic identities have to be respected. Frankly speaking, many of them feel that they are not Indians.

5) Manipur People's Party -- Nexus between politicians and terror: Linky

Manipur Peoples Party vice-president Y. Mangi Singh and four others, arrested for alleged involvement in illegal arms, were today remanded in police custody till November 8. Police said a team of commandos arrested Y. Biju, 33, after recovering two pistols and six live rounds of ammunition from him at his Khagempali locality yesterday morning during a frisking operation which was conducted following information that weapons were going to change hands in the area. Biju, the younger brother of an alleged cadre of the militant Peoples Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak, told interrogators that four persons were coming to collect the weapons from him.
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The police are also investigating whether the weapons were meant for use during campaigning for Assembly elections, which are expected to be held in February 2012. The MPP, a major Opposition party in the state, is silent on the development. Mangi Singh is a prominent person in Imphal East. He contested the last Assembly elections from Heingang constituency of Imphal East and his name has been doing the rounds for candidature this time as well.

6) Talks with UPDS: Linky

An hourlong meeting in Delhi between representatives of the Union home ministry and the United People’s Democratic Solidarity resolved all the hurdles in signing the proposed accord between the government and the Karbi militant outfit. A jubilant UPDS leadership said the conclave removed all the blocks and the pact would be signed within the next 10 days according to the time and date scheduled by the government. “We are happy with the decisions taken in today’s meeting,” said UPDS general secretary Saiding-Eh.
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“The changes are very minor and these are not related to the context of the accord. There are four or five such points which the state government wants to change. We had some objection in case of one or two — even the home ministry had some objections to one or two clauses — anyway, all these have been resolved in the discussions and in a friendly atmosphere all the recently emerged points have been brought to a meaningful solution,” said UPDS joint secretary Tong-Eh-Nongloda after the meeting. Nongloda, however, did not explain the minor changes.
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The proposed accord for a Karbi Anglong territorial autonomous council was scheduled to be signed last September, but the date was postponed to October 24. On October 21, the UPDS announced that it would not sign the accord if the government climbed down from the decision of forming a neutral interim administrator. The term of the Congress-led existing Karbi Anglong autonomous council ends in December, prompting the party to pressure Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi into postponing the date of signing the accord to November.

7) In a continuation from Linky, Nabam Tuki sworn in as Arunachal Chief Minister: Linky

Mr. Tuki, the first Chief Minister from the Nyishi community, told reporters that his priority was to maintain communal harmony among all tribes for development of the land-locked State. Mr. Tuki was chosen as Mr. Gamlin’s successor by the Congress high command after the latter stepped down.

Peace dividend vs. Democratic dividend vs. Oligarchic dividend

There have been quite a few moves by the South Block in the last few weeks/months: Nepal, Burma, Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, ..., that one opinionator found the deafening silence so perplexing (LInky)

All of this is good news both for India and for the region as a whole. So why does the story not get better play in the media, in the region and globally? Perhaps because no one is making the point.

So let me try undoing this silence on a not-so-grand-scale.

1) First, some opinions on BIPPA's aftermath in Nepal:

Maoist Spokesperson Dina Nath Sharma went on to claim that the BIPPA was approved by the Standing Committee meeting of the party prior to Bhattarai’s India visit and the deal has been reached abiding by the international norms and values. On October 18, the Standing Committee meeting of the Maoists had directed PM Bhattarai not to sign any controversial deals during his India trip.

By this one move, BIPPA will ensure guaranteed security for Indian investments in Nepal which the Indian embassy can invoke as and when needed. It will allow encircled companies such as Dabur, Tata, etc., to breathe free from bashing by different factions of maoists. The fact that this deal was signed with the maoists speaks more on why it could nt have passed muster under the JHK regime or worse, with MKN. That does nt mean that we are home now.

Meanwhile, the faction led by Maoist Vice Chairman Mohan Baidya has strongly objected to the deal reached between India and Nepal. Maoist Secretary CP Gajurel, who is considered close to Baidya, tagged the BIPPA as “anti-national.”

Sooner than later, even the NC and CPN(ML) will find a need to oppose BIPPA as an "imposed" treaty which should be re-bargained to maintain the honor and dignity of Nepal.
2) In Burma, an opinionator describes the happenings as follows: Linky

The Tatmadaw, i.e. the military, has agreed to try out a different method of governance (in which a ‘ civilian' government bears day-to-day responsibility for the country's affairs), but red markers are in place. Political forces are expected to behave responsibly, ensuring that public order and territorial integrity are not jeopardised and no one asks for a full-fledged democracy in a hurry.

So it may not be the Burmans' hedging of the bets against the chinese for all one knows. It could be that, and it could in part be a realization that democratic credentials surely are important in a long-term context of the internal health of Burma itself. Which is precisely where India fits in far better than the chinese will, given that our democratic dividend (in contrast to the classical demographic dividend, I know this word will become popular very soon, so you know who to attribute it to :)) is far better. Is India mediating on behalf of Burma to let the west go slow and see reason? You bet it.
3) India's biggest problem with Burma is not its pro-chinese moves, but

Delving deeper, two key gains of the visit should be highlighted. The first relates to border security management. A whole mix of negative activities is a constant on the India-Myanmar border. Although Myanmar extends cooperation to India, it is episodic, not sustained, in nature and it is given to a suboptimal degree. This explains the two governments' agreement on “enhancing effective cooperation and coordination” between their security forces in tackling “the deadly menace of insurgency and terrorism.” It is hoped that President Thein Sein carried home a clear message and that he would deliver on this score satisfactorily.
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For the first time, a figure was put out, showing the monetary value of the assistance extended by India through various projects in recent years; it is $300 million. What is of the greatest importance — and what also constitutes evidence that South Block is listening to Track II deliberations — is the decision to offer a generous Line of Credit (LoC) amounting to $500 million for new projects.

There you go in terms of comparison: Bangladesh (1 billion US$) > Burma (500 million US$) > Nepal (250 million US$). All these are still peanuts w.r.t. 2 billion US$ to Afghanistan projects.
4) Soft loan of 250 million US$ for Nepal while 1 billion US$ reserved for Bangladesh. Much of foreign policy happens via the classical "carrots and sticks" paradigm and India is no exception to this game. Bangladesh delivered on some of the NE terrorist outfits and received a giant carrot. The Nepalese delivered on regime change and brought a moderate faction of the maoists to power. The Indians worked backroom to cool down the NC and the desperate Jhalnath Khanal faction of the CPN(ML), brokered some power for the Madhesi parties, and stitched an alliance that is as much as chalk is to cheese. Ok, curd rice to jam if you are as much sdre as you usually are. India did deliver some goodies, but it has held back quite a bit because we want results before goodies get unloaded.
5) So that sets the tongues wagging on why why Indo-BD relations are a model for the rest of the Indian subcontinent.
6) As someone wisely pointed out that real life is a zero-sum game. Rajiv Bhatia says this:

Myanmar's decision to suspend the Myitsone dam project with China as the main beneficiary, has introduced new tensions, but the two governments are likely to craft a modus vivendi soon. The India-related factor is that South Block, facing criticism, has begun to strive hard to expedite implementation of previous projects and to choose new projects that are susceptible to execution within a shorter time frame.

So the chinese will try to fix the mess on their side, and things will settle back in. But that does not take away from the South Block's gains over the last month or so.
7) As Paul Keating says in a different context (Linky),

On America, Keating is dismayed by the pivotal change in its outlook after the end of the Cold War. "When the Berlin Wall came down the Americans cried victory and walked off the field," he says. "Yet the end of the Cold War offered the chance for America to develop a new world order. It didn't know what to do with its victory. ... "
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"Well, frankly, the US didn't have the wisdom. It just wanted to celebrate its peace dividend. The two Clinton terms and the two George W. Bush terms, that's four presidential terms, have cost US mightily."

fear is that the South Block will rest on its much hard-earned laurels. There is no time for that kinda sitting back and self-kudo-ing.
8) However, with the IDSA pointing out the direction, which I interpret hopefully, as a one-way street (Linky),

India needs to increase its footprints in Afghanistan. Towards this end the recent agreements signed during the visit of President Karzai are insufficient to leave lasting imprints post 2014. India needs to increase its stakes in Afghanistan in the energy, minerals and power sectors, which have a longer presence and resultantly require construction of ancillaries like transportation, railways and housing besides the need to guard assets. Further, India must build on the training of the Afghan National Army and Police by enlarging the scope to include the provision and supply of arms and munitions, vehicles and stores as also training the Afghan Air Force. All these must be guaranteed by the US through trilateral agreements before its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I am not losing much sleep on my worries.
9) Elsewhere, as Edward Luttwak writes in the Infinity Journal on "Why China will not become the next global power ... But it could," a detente calls for a deconstruction of the aggressive military posturing and stances on perceived territorial disputes. As another wiseman Billy Joel said, we did nt unfortunately start the fire and hence, we cannot be party to a transformation from oligarchic dividend to democratic dividend. Therefore, I am loving this battle already. Bring it on! Peace!

0) As an aside, one commentator had this deep question with my comments in parantheses (Linky):

Sheikh Hasina’s visit to Dahagram-Angarpota had been on the cards for several weeks. Until three days before her visit, the Bangladeshis were told that India’s Home Minister P Chidambaram would be there to receive her. Sore and humiliated by the PM’s refusal to call Mamata Banerjee’s bluff over the Teesta (as if West Bengal's share of waters flowing through its state are to be bestowed by the Union Government to a foreign entity for their benefit), they agreed that Chidambaram’s presence would be a big gesture from Delhi.

Then it was said that Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh – said to be close to the Gandhi family, and even Rahul – would be going, along with the junior minister for home affairs, Jitendra Singh. In the end, Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, along with Singh, ended up doing the honours. No offence meant to Mr Azad, but how relevant is his presence to a meeting with a Bangladeshi leader? Where was Foreign Minister S M Krishna? What was Mr Chidambaram doing that he couldn’t drop everything and go?

Well, if Jyoti Malhotra had googled up, she would have noted that Linky

Union home minister P. Chidambaram, who was to receive her and hold a 20-minute discussion literally by the roadside when Hasina crosses the corridor, had to call off the visit because of his mother Lakshmi Ammal’s ill health. Chidambaram is in Tamil Nadu. (So Chidambaram had something urgent to attend to unless if the order of priority is Bangladesh >> Mother, not to mention that that happens too at times.)

“I will be going but I do not know if there would be discussions. I have been told only a short while back,” Ramesh told The Telegraph. (So a Minister asked to stand in for someone else may not have anything else on his plate given that he is a Cabinet Minister?!)

In Chidambaram’s absence, Hasina was received by Indian Health Minister Golam Nabi Azad and Minister of State for Home Affairs Jitendra Prasad. Indian officials worked overnight to build a helipad in the Teen Bigha corridor near the BSF outpost for the Prime Minister’s helicopter’s landing and take-off. She was given a guard of honour by the BSF.
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Can Congress President Sonia Gandhi urgently please set aside a few hours, even on a weekly basis, and ask for the files dealing with the most important foreign policy issues? In Dhaka last month, when the Teesta agreement was falling apart, everyone talked about the amazing trip Sonia Gandhi had had to Dhaka just days before. If only Sonia Gandhi were here, they said, this wouldn’t have happened; she would have phoned Mamata Banerjee and persuaded her to see reason.
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The point of this column is that there is such a terrible absence of political leadership in South Block that “chalta hai” (anything goes) has begun to take the place of creative imagination.
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Imagine if Hasina had been greeted by a galaxy of leaders from Delhi and Bengal, all lined up on the Teen Bigha. Imagine if the Indian government – the president, the prime minister, whoever – gave the young and newly married King of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Wangchuk, who comes to India in a few days to spend his honeymoon in Rajasthan, a public reception at the Red Fort or the Mughal Gardens at the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

Yes, we can imagine all these things, but then the government officeholders have to run a government instead of being the chaperones to the newly married King of Bhutan and being around when Sh. Hasina makes a point to visit the enclaves in India. Jyoti Malhotra's penchant for symbolism devoid of cool and rational logic which should ideally be what foreign policy moves are, of acts that matter more to building image than to acts that build credentials, focus on propaganda and a deep worry on what others might think of us instead of worrying about what they do think of us, etc., is what makes commentariat in India so irritating, painful and yet a big pleasure to endure. A crying call for Sonia Gandhi and pleas for "creative imagination" when full-time Foreign Service personnel work double hard to square circles without displeasing the manifold internal stakeholders is what makes this episode even sadder than it is. But then these commentators are the news-makers of India, they literally make the news, not like their job ends with reporting on events that make the news.

Nepal updates (October 21, 2011)

1) List of agreements signed: Linky

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government today extended its policy of “good neighbourliness” to Nepal. New Delhi delivered on a promise it made in early 2010 by committing a $250 million (Rs1,200 crore) credit line to Kathmandu for infrastructure development. Over the past year, India has provided similar or larger lines of credit to Myanmar, Bangladesh and Afghanistan.

The credit line “will be used to finance infrastructure projects such as highways, airports, bridges, irrigation, roads, railways and hydropower projects”, a foreign ministry statement said. Nepal will be able to engage Indian companies in infrastructure development work from this line of credit. The agreement provides Nepal the loan at an interest rate of 1.75 per cent per annum with a repayment period of 20 years, including a five-year moratorium.

India has also promised Rs 2 crore in subsidies for iodised salt to help Nepal control goitre and other iodine-deficiency diseases in 22 of its remote districts. Apart from improving roads and other infrastructure, India wants Nepal to replicate the success of Bhutan’s hydropower sector. Indian investment in Thimphu has made it a power-surplus country.

The two sides also signed an agreement for the protection and promotion of investments, which New Delhi was keen on after Maoist attacks on some of its joint venture projects in Nepal. The agreement was on the anvil since 1998 but could not be signed because of misgivings within the Nepali bureaucracy. The investment promotion and protection agreement will remain in force for 10 years. In exchange for investment protection, South Block has assured Nepal Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai that it will continue to support and help his government negotiate the peace process and draft its constitution.

More on BIPPA looking like the Indus Water Treaty redux: Linky

The two sides formalised the long pending Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPPA), which commits one State to providing compensation to commercial entities, whose country of origin is the other. This applies particularly in cases of wars, national emergency, and armed conflict. Investments from either country in the territory of the other country are to be accorded ‘National Treatment' and ‘Most Favoured Nation' treatment. It also provides for elaborate dispute resolution mechanisms between investors and the government concerned, and between governments, including international arbitration.
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While Nepal had asked for soft loans of $1 billion, the final pact provided a $250-million line of credit to Nepal to finance infrastructure projects, at the concessional rate of interest of 1.75 per cent annually. India had announced a similar loan for Bangladesh during the New Delhi visit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in January 2010. The billion-dollar soft loan deal, the biggest credit package New Delhi has ever earmarked for any nation, was inked when Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee visited Dhaka in August last year.
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Despite extensive negotiations, the two sides failed to agree on a double taxation avoidance agreement which was on the agenda.
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A senior Indian official, who wished to remain anonymous, said Mr. Bhattarai's visit was an ‘unqualified success.' “It shows firm Indian political support for Bhattarai's government, and we are banking on him to complete the political transition. There is also recognition on both sides that our relations need to have a strong economic content.” A member of the Nepali delegation confirmed to The Hindu that India did not push security-related issues that Nepal finds politically uncomfortable to deal with, namely extradition and mutual legal assistance treaties.

More.... Linky

Dr. Bhattarai said he was aware that there will be a domestic backlash in Nepal, referring to criticism that the agreement will spell huge liabilities for the Nepali state. “I have taken a risk, but if you don’t take risks, the country cannot develop. We are at the stage of capitalist development. If we want double digit growth, wish to raise the per capita income of citizens to $3000 in ten years, and develop, this is the only route. It will create conducive environment for investment.”
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The Prime Minister clarified that the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement, which was on the agenda, could not be signed because of ‘miscommunication’ between the two countries.

2) Dr. Bhattarai writes in the Hindu: Linky

One major field is the exploitation of water resources for mutual benefit. The next is drawing in Indian investment to Nepal — we are committed to creating a conducive environment for investors and providing them security. The trade balance between our two countries has been quite skewed. Our trade deficit with India is quite huge. The import-export ratio is about 7:1, which is not sustainable. That is another area where we have to deepen our economic cooperation.

3) Elsewhere... Linky

Nepalese Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai on Wednesday sacked Defence Minister Sarad Singh Bhandari, a prominent Madhesi leader for allegedly making secessionist remarks, days after a Maoist leader was shown the door.

Mr. Bhandari was relieved from duty at the recommendation of his party Madhesi Peoples Rights Forum (MPRF)-Democratic. Earlier this week, Land Reforms Minister and Maoist leader Prabhu Sah was relieved from the post for his alleged links in the murder of a Hindu youth leader Kashi Nath Tiwari last year. Addressing the Legislature-Parliament in the capital, the prime minister announced that Mr. Bhandari and Mr. Sah have been relieved from their ministerial posts on the recommendation of their respective parties.
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Home Minister and chairman of MPRF-Democratic Biajaya Kumar Gachhadar has been given the responsibility of the Defence Ministry while Maoist leader and Minister for Local Development Top Bahadur Rayamajhi would look after the Land Reform Ministry.

SAAG says more on this matter: Linky

In the case of another, the Defence Minister S. S. Bhandari said to be close to the Deputy Prime Minister Gacchadar, was forced out, for making an indiscreet statement about Terai seceding, in a public meeting at Banepa on the 26th of September though in my view this did not call for the extreme punishment. There seems to be, finally a genuine feeling that the peace process and the completion of a draft constitution should be made without further delay.

4) Dr. SC avers that internal Maoist dynamics is all for show:

Second, is the internal opposition faced from the Mohan Baidya faction within the party (UCPN-M) that is said to prevent Bhattarai from being a little more flexible. The Nepalese press is full of articles describing the Maoist party of having a hardline faction and a moderate one with the Mohan Baidya faction being identified with the former and those of Bhattarai and the Chairman P.K. Dahal belonging to the “moderate” faction.

I am still not convinced that there are a hardline and a moderate faction within the party. If one looks at the statements made by Bhattarai until 2009, one could say that he was as much a hardliner as anyone else in the party. To me, it looks that the views of the so called hardline faction is being used by the Maoist leadership to be inflexible in the settlement of all the contentious issues relating to the peace process. Dahal is still in a position to take firm decisions in the matter of integration of PLA. There will be differences, but once the decision is made no one would oppose the party line.

5) On the sticky integration issue, Dr. Bhattarai says this: Linky

What is the meeting point on the contentious issues regarding the future of Maoist combatants?

First, for modality, we have more or less agreed that a separate directorate will be created under the Nepal Army. Second, international norms of security forces will be obeyed by all members to be integrated. But there will be certain concessions on age, education, marital status etc. Third, on ranks, our senior commanders will be brought back for political work and junior commanders can be adjusted. The fourth issue is package for those opting for rehabilitation or voluntary retirement or golden handshake. We are working out an honourable settlement. And on numbers, we proposed a figure between 8,000 and 10,000. With Madhesi parties, there was an agreement of around 7,000. Other parties have come to about 6,000. We will finally settle around 7,000; that should be the compromise number of those to be integrated. We can then immediately start regrouping, which can be completed in one month. And within two weeks after that, we should be able to complete the process of integration.
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There is suspicion that a part of the money given to the combatants as ‘golden handshake’ will be used to fill in Maoist coffers.

It is time to get over this kind of mistrust. The Maoist party, being a principled party based on firm political and ideological convictions, does not believe in duping people. The package will be utilized for the welfare of the PLA cadre. There is no question of the party taking away money from them.