Making Sense of the Manipuri Verdict 2012 -- Part II

We continue from the previous post (Linky) on interpreting the Manipur mandate 2012.

Manipur has nine administrative districts and 60 Assembly constituencies (see Footnote 1). The Imphal Valley has approx 60% of the state's population whereas the Hill districts have approx 40% of the population. Due to delimitation exercises done as late as 2011, the Valley has been divided into 40 Assembly constituencies and the Hill districts have 19 reserved (for ST candidates -- read as Kuki/Chin/Mizo and Naga tribal affinities -- only) constituencies and 1 general constituency (in Senapati district). The main candidate parties for the Assembly elections were: i) INC, ii) Manipur People's Party (MPP), iii) Naga People's Front (NPF), iv) Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), v) All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), vi) CPI, vii) CPM, viii) Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), ix) Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), x) BJP, xi) BSP, xii) Janata Dal (United), xiii) Janata Dal (Secular), etc. Of these, the first five are/were serious contenders to be meaningful participants in the Assembly debates with enough members to change the course of certain policy decisions, while the rear end had/has their pockets of influence in Manipur but not severe enough to dent the course of the main contenders.

First, some useful statistics from the elections and comparable data from the 9th Assembly elections of 2007. Most of the data have been sourced from:
1) Linky 1
2) Linky 2
3) Linky 3
4) Linky 4
5) Linky 5
6) Linky 6.

Voting percentage: 79.8% of the electorate (86.73% in 2007)
Overall seat wins: INC 42, AITC 7, MSCP 5, NPF 4, LJP 1, NCP 1 (In 2007, it was INC 30, MPP 5, NCP 5, CPI 4, RJD 3, NPP 3, Independent 10)
No. of women winners: 3 (Akoijam Mirabai, Okram Landhoni Devi (wife of Okram Ibobi Singh), Nemcha Kipgen)
In 2007, it was one when Okram Landhoni Devi won the Khangabok seat vacated by the resignation of CM Okram Ibobi Singh who had also won from Thoubal.
Big-time losers:
1) Radhobinod Koijam (former CM and NCP state unit President),
2) L. Jayantakumar Singh and 3) D. D. Thaisii (both Ministers in the previous Cabinet)
4) O. Joy Singh (veteran MPP leader)
5) Th. Chaoba Singh (another veteran MPP leader)

Lessons from the elections:
1) Toothless Opposition: The MPP, CPM, NCP, JD(U) and RJD had initially come under the People's Democratic Front umbrella to fight the incumbent INC regime and this combine soon became the People's Democratic Alliance of eleven non-Congress parties (with the inclusion of AITC, CPI, BJP, MSCP, NPP and NPF). While it may remain questionable (in the minds of a few) that the eventual outcome was whether a massive mandate for the Congress, it certainly was a mandate against an ineffective, toothless Opposition with nothing much in common except a visceral hatred towards INC rule. Very often have we seen such maha-parivars fail to usurp the sitting party and the Opposition has yet again made a big mistake in sensing people's moods and sentiments. The facts that the INC government was hobbled by many a scandal and handled the economic blockade (see Footnote 2) by the Nagas and the tit-for-tat from the Kukis rather poorly did not seem to have had any impact on the voters. In fact, from 30 seats in 2007, INC has increased its tally to 42 in 2012. More specifically,

For the first time in over a quarter century or more, a single party has won an absolute majority in the 60-member state assembly.

This is just a direct reflection of the quality of Opposition in the elections.

2) Congress' Performance: As for the INC, it stood in all the 60 constituencies. Of the 40 Valley constituencies, it won in 28 seats, came a strong second in 9, came a strong third in 2 and got washed out in Langthabal where its candidate Waikhom Shyama Devi was no match for other contestants. In the Hill constituencies, INC won in 14 of the 19 reserved seats and came a strong second in 5. In the Kangpokpi (Gen) seat in Senapati district, INC came third behind MSCP and AITC. Thus, INC could claim to have had an across-the-state presence amongst all the three sets of peoples -- Meiteis, Kukis and Nagas. The Meiteis of the Valley seem to have polarized strongly in favor of INC as witnessed by the strong showing of INC in the Valley. Or have they?

3) Kuki vs. Naga votes in the Hill constituencies: The NPF took to the hustings in 12 of the 19 reserved seats. Its performance was first in 4 seats (Chandel (ST), Karong (ST), Mao (ST) and Ukhrul (ST)), a second in 3 seats and a third in 5 seats. As noted above, INC came first in 14 of the 19 reserved seats and came a strong second in 5. The remaining seat was won by MSCP (which had come first in Tamenglong (ST)) ahead of the INC and NPF candidates. The Kangpokpi (general) seat was won by MSCP ahead of AITF and INC. Of the 9 Kuki dominated seats including Kangpokpi, INC has won in 8 and MSCP in 1, while in the 11 Naga dominated seats, INC has won 6, NPF in 4, and MSCP in 1.

4) More on the NPF flop-show: In the 12 seats where the INC and NPF had directly contested, the scorecard was INC 7-5-0, NPF 4-3-5. In terms of district-wise divisions, of the three seats in Tangkhul Naga dominated Ukhrul district (Chingai (ST), Phungyar (ST), Ukhrul (ST)), NPF could win only in one seat (Ukhrul (ST)) and that too by a slim margin of 70 votes over the INC candidate with the BJP candidate (Danny Shaiza who was an independent MLA in the 2007 Assembly) coming a strong third. Further, in Chingai (ST), an independent candidate (Khashim Vashum who was embroiled in a recent controversy Linky) had come second ahead of the NPF candidate.

In the three seats of the Kabui-Kacha Naga dominated Tamenglong district (Nungba (ST), Tamei (ST), Tamenglong (ST)), NPF had failed to win a single seat. In fact, in Nungba (ST) and Tamei (ST), the MSCP and AITC candidates had come second ahead of the NPF candidate, respectively. In Tamenglong, both MSCP and INC candidates had come ahead of NPF candidate. In the six seats of Senapati district, the NPF contested three and came 1-1-2 (Mao (ST)-Karong (ST)-Tadubi (ST)). However, in Mao (ST), the AITC candidate was a strong third behind NPF and INC. In the six seats of Churachandpur district, NPF contested one and came third (Heinglep (ST)) behind the INC and AITC candidates. In the two seats of Chandel district, NPF came 1-2 (Chandel (ST)-Tengnoupal (ST)) with the win in Chandel (ST) coming by a margin of 60 votes.

Thus, the NPF had provided a knockout win in only 2 of the 12 constituencies it had contested in. The numbers also indicate that the NPF seems to have had the backing of Mao-Maram-Anal-Maring-Paomei affinities, but not the Kabui-Kacha Naga-Tangkhul Naga affinities. For a party that had put its credibility at stake in terms of being the united Naga voice and the grand spearhead of the Nagalim campaign within the Manipur Assembly, such a show was a massively poor outcome. This intra-Naga dynamic should not be completely surprising. NPF which is also a part of the DAN government in Nagaland is dominated by Angami Nagas (Nagaland CM Dr. Neiphiu Rio and NPF founder Shurhozelie Liezietsu are Angamis), whereas NSCN (IM) is dominated by Tangkhul (Muivah) and Sema (Swu) Nagas and NSCN (K) based primarily out of Arunachal and Burma is dominated by Konyak (Khaplang) Nagas. Kacha Nagas have been at the forefront of the massive Kuki genocide of 1992-93 (see Footnote 3) in Tamenglong district and elsewhere and have migrated more towards Tangkhul Nagas and NSCN (IM) in this interregnum. Thus, even though the NPF was promised NSCN (IM) support in the pre-election setting, assuming that this support was forthcoming on the ground seems like a mirage.

5) Grand-Nagalim Project: The role played by Nagaland CM Dr. Neiphiu Rio in inflaming emotions in the Naga-dominated regions of Manipur when he was campaigning for NPF needs attention. In fact, Rio had stated the following at an election rally in Tamenglong district on January 19 (Linky):

Last year, Ibobi Singh and his cabinet decided that they will not allow the Naga Chief Minister to enter the State, but now that the elections have been announced, he no longer has the power to prevent me from coming here and meeting you. But if you let him win again I will not be able to come to Manipur to meet all of you.

Needless to say, that remark was in rather poor taste and the poor show of NPF was richly deserved.
Overall, the impression one gets from the NPF campaign is that the whole of Nagaland (DAN, INC as well as NSCN-IM, NSCN-K, NSCN-KK, NNC, Naga Hoho, etc.) is firmly behind the grand-Nagalim project. Only the methods adopted by the different actors change from time to time, some adopt democratic means, some use coercive means; some use legal means, some use extra-legal means, and so on. Nevertheless, despite all overall impressions of union, when it comes to tit for tat, things breakdown along tribal sub-affinities.

6) Comparison with 2007: Note that in the 2007 Assembly elections, the INC which had won a total of 30 seats took 25 from the Valley and only 5 from the reserved Hill seats (3 in Churachandpur district -- Churachandpur (ST), Hinglep (ST), Saikot (ST), one in Senapati district -- Karong (ST) and one in Tamenglong district -- Nungba (ST)). The Hill seats breakdown for 2007 was 5 in favor of INC, 3 (including Kangpokpi) for the NPP, 2 for the RJD, 1 for the NCP and 9 for independents supported by the NPF, ANSAM and the Naga combine. Here is a theory to explain the reversal in fortunes for MPP, NPP, NPF, RJD, INC, etc.

In contrast to the NPF's woes, INC has won 6 out of 6 seats in Churachandpur district, 3 of 6 in Senapati district, 2 of 3 in Ukhrul and Tamenglong districts, and 1 of 2 in Chandel district. While almost all of these wins do not appear to be massive/overwhelming and appear to be steals in a tri-cornered fight with a spoiler candidate, the endorsement of INC can only be logically explained as the Kuki side's tilt to INC (the only possible perceptible winner) as a backlash to the ANSAM enforced Naga blockade (see Footnote 2).

7) Rise of the Trinamool Congress: In contrast to what Nitin Gokhale states (Linky):

Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, never before a force to reckon with in Manipur, has won seven seats in the recent assembly elections, overtaking established political forces like the Manipur People's Party.

the rise of AITC should be seen in the light of: i) how a strong dynamic in West Bengal will always have (and has always had!) an influence in all the Northeastern states (not just Manipur), ii) the brand of minority politics wielded by the likes of AITC and CPM -- both of which are constrained by realpolitik of a rising and enlightening Muslim votebank and who are never shy of showing off their secular credentials, iii) how the AITC had become popular amidst the also-running Opposition parties as witnessed by its success in the bye-elections of 2011 (Linky).

8) Looking at the Trinamool performance more closely: The Trinamool Congress won in the following constituencies (winners in 2007 elections are given in parentheses):
a) Thounaojam Shyamkumar -- Andro by 10432 votes (T. Shyamkumar on MPP ticket)
b) Maibam Kunjo -- Hiyanglam by 17 votes (Elangbam Dwijamani Singh of INC)
c) Konthoujam Sharat Singh -- Konthoujam by 514 votes (Late Dr. Sapam Budhichandra Singh of INC)
d) Irengbam Ibohalbi Singh -- Oinam by 956 votes (I. I. Singh on MPP ticket)
e) Khumukcham Joykishan Singh -- Thangmeiband by 984 votes (Radhabinod Koijam of NCP)
f) Thongam Biswajit Singh -- Thongju by 603 votes (Bijoy Koijam of INC)
g) Oinam Lukhoi Singh -- Wangoi by 182 votes (Salam Joy Singh of NCP)
Thus, of the seven seats Trinamool won in 2012, three were sitting MLAs -- two won the elections in 2007 on a MPP ticket and one had won the bye-elections of 2011. Thus, Trinamool Congress has gained significantly due to defections from MPP. Further, three of the winning seats are in Imphal west district, two in Imphal east and one each in Thoubal and Bishnupur, all in the Valley area. This makes a case that Trinamool had a backing only in the Meitei areas and not much in the Kuki-Naga areas. Such a coarse analysis misses the big picture.

The Trinamool finished a strong second (several thousand votes) in 16 constituencies of which 6 were reserved constituencies (Churachandpur (ST), Henglep (ST), Saikot (ST), Saikul (ST), Singhat (ST), Tipaimukh (ST)), a strong third in 11 constituencies of which 4 were reserved constituencies (Mao (ST), Saitu (ST), Tadubi (ST), Tengnoupal (ST)), and a strong fourth in 4 constituencies of which one was reserved (Ukhrul (ST)). In other words, the Trinamool has been a strong candidate in 37 of the 48 seats it contested, making it the number 2 party in the state by any metric and the biggest riser from 2007. Of these 11 reserved constituencies, 5 are in Senapati district, 5 in Churachandpur district and one in Chandel district. In Ukhrul and Tamenglong districts (both Naga dominated), the Trinamool took to the polls in only 2 of the 6 constituencies getting washed out in both. Thus, a strong case can be made that the Trinamool is becoming the no. 2 party of choice of both Meiteis and Kukis.

9) Trinamool Trend: It may appear that the rise of Trinamool Congress is perhaps a temporary aberration of people putting more hope in the Trinamool than in the Opposition combine of Manipur. The moment there is a sense of de javu and hopelessness that Trinamool Congress is just another party is the moment it shall lose its rising stars -- the ball for which is in the court of the Trinamool, of course. On the other hand, if the AITC does snatch this ball (so-to-speak), it could be the alternate pole sorely needed in the Indian Northeast to the INC given that the BJP has seemed to have fallen off from its high of 1998-2004. More so, the rise of the Indian Northeast cannot be ensured without the co-option of West Bengal and AITC's rise augurs well for this prospect (also bringing with it all the pitfalls that already constrain West Bengal's polity today). In addition, AITC could be seen more hopefully by people in the Northeast to solve regional problems than the likes of BJP given the image manufactured by AITC so far. For example, prior to the elections, AITC had given support to withdrawal of AFSPA from Manipur. Further, a good showing in a few more states could give a fillip to AITC's seeking of National Party status, which will bring in its own added momentum (Linky) and the consequence of the bold standing up to the INC in coalition politics will have its own unintended consequences.

Overall,
1) In response to the Naga blockade crisis, the Meiteis of the Valley seem to have chosen to stick with the INC -- more or less the only credible choice -- and put AITC over the rest of the established parties such as NCP, MPP, MSCP, etc.
2) In contrast to an ambivalent 2007, the Kukis seem to have sided with the INC and partly with AITC.
3) The Nagas seem to have been vertically divided along tribal sub-affinities in terms of support to NPF (Nagalim issue and territorial sovereignty of Manipur).
4) This dynamic means that INC has been able to land a whitewash despite massively poor economic upliftment of the people of Manipur, enormous increase in extortion activities and the business of terrorism, and complete stalling of bureaucracy/officialdom over the previous five years. The fact that INC has not had any major success in any of the other four state elections except for a marginal performance in Uttarakhand means that this win stands out for its complete surprise.
5) If any of the Opposition parties have to make a dent into this quickly transforming INC bastion (along with Assam where the illegal votebank has become a de facto powerbroker), they have to see past the fractiousness of the tribal divisions and present a credible solution to Manipur's economic woes. The only seeming prospect as of now appears to be AITC, but it is a hope banked on hope rather than on performance. If such an alternative is not coming soon, it is advantage INC to maintain status quo in spite of poor performance. The INC should feel like the ball is in the Opposition court for they have to manufacture a win out of nothing in 2017 (or earlier).
6) Despite all the whitewashes, the bluster of NPF and the Opposition combine shall continue as the blame for the whitewash will fall on imaginary conspiracies.

Other Minor Facts:
1) The biggest margin of victory was achieved by the incumbent CM Okram Ibobi Singh from the Thoubal constituency. Other 10K+ margin winners include Thounaojam Shyamkumar of AITC from
Andro and Ginsuanhau of INC from Singhat (ST).
2) Out of the 60 newly elected MLAs of the Manipur Assembly, no MLA has declared criminal cases against him/her. 57 of the 60 are men and 3 are women. In terms of educational qualification, 49 out of 60 are graduates with only 4 being 10th Pass and below.
3) Out of all 60 MLAs analyzed from Manipur 2012 Assembly Elections, 16 are crorepatis. In 2007 Assembly Election for the whole of Manipur only 1 MLA was crorepati.
4) The MLA with maximum assets in Manipur is T.N. Haokip of INC from Saikot (ST) constituency with assets worth Rs. 10.07 crores followed by Ksh. Biren Singh of INC from Lamlai with assets worth Rs. 5.22 crores and R.K. IMO Singh of MSCP from Sagoiband constituency with assets worth Rs. 2.72 crores. Among major parties, the average asset per candidate for INC is Rs. 1.05 crores, for AITC is Rs. 69.8 lakhs, for MSCP is Rs. 97.43 lakhs, and for NPF is Rs. 68.5 lakhs.
5) The number of re-elected MLAs from 2007 is 35. Of these 35, the average asset value in 2007 was Rs. 20.02 lakhs. The average asset value of this set in 2012 is Rs. 1.18 crore. Of these,
a) T.N. Haokip of INC's asset worth increased from Rs. 29.73 lakhs in 2007 to Rs. 10.07 crores in 2012.
b) Ksh. Biren Singh of INC's asset worth increased from Rs. 14.23 lakhs in 2007 to Rs. 5.22 crores in 2012.
c) Kh. Govindas of INC's asset worth increased from Rs. 38.25 lakhs in 2007 to Rs. 2.49 crores in 2012.
Other notable increases include:
d) K. Meghachandra of INC's assets rose from Rs. 2.90 lakhs in 2007 to Rs. 2.06 crores in 2012.
e) Akoijam Mirabai Devi of INC's assets rose from Rs. 30.5 thousand in 2007 to Rs. 14.40 lakhs in 2012.
f) K. Ranjit Singh of INC's assets rose from Rs. 3.82 lakhs in 2007 to Rs. 1.70 crores in 2012.

Footnotes:
1) The smallest number that can be had for a Legislative Assembly is 60, unless there is a Constitutional exception by an Act of the Parliament (as is the case with Sikkim, Mizoram and Goa). See Linky for details.

2) When the Centre decided to hold ADC elections in Manipur, the All Naga Students Association of Manipur (ANSAM) and the Naga Students Federation (NSF) began a blockade of NH-39 in April 2010 to protest the decision. In May 2010, the crisis took a bitter turn when the State government disallowed NSCN (IM) general secretary Thuingaleng Muivah from visiting his village Somdal in Ukhrul. During the four-month long blockade, Manipur was strapped for severely needed resources like petrol, LPG and basic food commodities. As Kuki-Naga tensions worsened, the NSCN (IM) was accused of trying to stall the democratic process in Manipur where nearly 200,000 voters would vote. A year later, in 2011, Kuki groups from Manipur started a 122-day blockade to draw attention to their demand — declare Sarda in Senapati district an autonomous district for Kukis. Both blockades crippled the State economically and losses ran to the tune of Rs. 250 crore.

In fact, there is a precedent from 2002 and 2007 to the claim that economic blockades matter zilch in Manipur.

3) Within the Hill districts, Kuki and Naga militia have been at loggerheads since the 1990s, with Kuki groups asking for the establishment of an Autonomous District Council (ADC) in Senapati, and Naga groups, backed by the NPF and NSCN (IM), demanding that large chunks of the four Hill districts be part of Greater Nagalim since these areas were inhabited by Tangkhul Nagas.

Understanding the Manipuri Verdict -- Part I

Elections to the 10th Legislative Assembly of Manipur has just now been completed with the people's mandate counted and declared. It makes sense to understand the subtle and not-so-subtle meanings of this democratic mandate as Manipur is not only a frontier and fractured state, but also because this could have serious import on the business of counterterrorism in the Indian Northeast for a significant period.

But before this task can be undertaken, the numbers that make Manipur need to be understood. For this, we follow-up from Linky in our goal of understanding Manipur and its peoples.

1) There are nine administrative districts in Manipur: i) Bishnupur, ii) Imphal East, iii) Imphal West, iv) Thoubal, v) Churachandpur, vi) Chandel (formerly known as Tengnoupal), vii) Senapati, viii) Tamenglong, and ix) Ukhrul. A picture of the district map of Manipur is available at: (Linky).

2) Of these, the four districts of Bishnupur, Imphal East, Imphal West and Thoubal form the Valley or plateau region while the rest form the Hilly area. The area of Manipur is 22,327 sq km, of which 20,736 sq km is the surrounding Hills and the remaining area is the Valley. Clearly, the population density in the Valley is much much more than the density in the Hilly districts.

3) From the 2011 census, the population of the various districts of Manipur is as below (Linky). Also provided is the district's population percentage relative to the state's population in the 2001 census

Manipur total population: 2,721,756 = 100%

Valley population: 1,628,224 = 59.79% (2011) 61.54% (2001)
Bishnupur - 240,363 = 8.83% 9.08%
Thoubal - 420,517 = 15.45% 15.87%
Imphal West - 514,683 = 18.91% 19.37%
Imphal East - 452,661 = 16.63% 17.21%

Hills population: 1,093,532 = 40.18% (2011) 38.46% (2001)
Senapati - 354,972 = 13.04% 12.36%
Tamenglong - 140,143 = 5.15% 4.86%
Churachandpur - 271,274 = 9.97% 9.94%
Ukhrul - 183,115 = 6.73% 6.14%
Chandel - 144,028 = 5.29% 5.16%

Conclusion 1: Thus the population of the Valley districts has decreased slightly over the 2001-2011 census relative to the population of the Hill districts. But in terms of general trends, both the 2011 census as well as the 2001 census show similar behavior. This is in contrast to the 1991 census where dramatic changes were witnessed due to ethnic cleansing of Kukis from Naga-dominated territories by NSCN(IM), ANSAM and affiliated bodies so that a stake for Nagalim could be put.

4) As we know from Linky, Manipur is a four-way contest between the Meiteis, the Meitei Pangals, the Kuki/Chin/Mizo tribal affinities and the Naga tribal affinities. The precise contest as from the 2001 census is as follows:

Hill districts
a) Senapati district:
Population - 283,621 (- 100%)

Population excluding Mao-Maram, Purul and Paomata subdivisions - 156,513
Christians: 122,724
Hindus: 30,441
Muslims: 1,281

ST Population - 122,791
Thadou (Kuki): 72,535
Tangkhul (Naga): 8,329
Vaiphei (Kuki): 7,357
Rest: 34,570

Missing data on Mao-Maram, Paomei (Naga): 127,108

Estimate of Naga percentage in the district population: 47.75%
Estimate of Kuki percentage in the district population: 28.17%
Estimate of rest: 12.19%
Estimate of Meitei population: 10.73%

Assembly constituencies (6): Karong (ST), Mao (ST), Saikul (ST), Saitu (ST), Tadubi (ST), Kangpokpi (General)
----------------------------------------------
b) Churachandpur district:
Population - 227,905 (= 100%)
Christians: 213,186 (93.5%)
Hindus: 10,538 (4.6%)
Muslims: 2,573 (1.13%)

ST Population of district - 212,482 (= 93.23% of district population)
Thadous (Kuki group): 54,929 (25.9% of ST population)
Paite (Kuki): 45,549 (21.4%)
Hmar (Kuki): 37,998 (17.9%)
Rest: 74,006 (34.8%)

Assembly constituencies (6): Churachandpur (ST), Hinglep (ST), Saikot (ST), Singhat (ST), Thanlon (ST), Tipaimukh (ST)
----------------------------------------------
c) Ukhrul district:
Population - 140,778 (= 100%)
Christians: 133,966 (95.2%)
Hindus: 5,687 (4.04%)
Muslims: 881 (0.6%)

ST Population of district - 134,493 (= 95.54% of district population)
Tangkhul (Naga group): 127,035 (94.5% of ST population)
Thadou (Kuki): 5,268 (3.92%)
Simte (Naga): 718 (0.5%)
Rest: 1,472 (1.09%)

Assembly constituencies (3): Chingai (ST), Phungyar (ST), Ukhrul (ST)
----------------------------------------------
d) Tamenglong district:
Population - 111,499 (= 100%)
Christians: 105,791 (94.88%)
Hindus: 3,187 (2.86%)
Muslims: 1,431 (1.28%)

ST Population of district - 106,349 (= 95.38% of district population)
Kabui (Naga group): 60,893 (57.26 % of ST population)
Kacha Naga (Naga): 34,368 (32.32 %)
Thadou (Kuki) - 6,888 (6.47%)
Rest: 4,200 (3.95%)

Assembly constituencies (3): Nungba (ST), Tamei (ST), Tamenglong (ST)
----------------------------------------------
e) Chandel district:
Population - 118,327 (= 100%)
Christians: 109,128 (92.2%)
Hindus: 5,701 (4.8%)
Muslims: 2,318 (1.96%)

ST Population of district - 108,779 (= 91.93% of district population)
Thadou (Kuki group): 35,086 (32.3% of ST population)
Anal (Naga): 20,851 (19.2%)
Maring (Naga): 19,828 (18.2%)
Rest: 33,014 (30.3%)

Assembly constituencies (2): Chandel (ST), Tengnoupal (ST)
----------------------------------------------

Conclusion 2: Thus, Churachandpur district is two-thirds Kuki majority, Ukhrul is Tangkhul Naga (same affinity as Thuingaleng Muivah who was prevented from entering Ukhrul district in 2011)-dominated, and Tamenglong is Kabui-Kacha Naga dominated. On the other hand, Chandel is evenly split between Kukis and Nagas. For Senapati district, the figures are controversial because no census was taken for Mao-Maram, Purul and Paomata subdivisions and the numbers for other subdivisions is believed to be inflated at the edges (see Linky, for example). But it is also widely believed that these three subdivisions are (at least historically) dominated by Naga affinities, specifically Mao-Maram and Pangmei tribes. On the other hand, the complete stalling of activity in the Sadar Hills subdivision by Kuki blockades over the last year shows that these regions could be Kuki dominated. Using this intuition and the 2001 census figures, our best guesstimate is that in Senapati district, the Nagas are ~55% in the district, with Kukis around ~30%, and Meiteis around ~15% (give or take 1 or 2% points either side for the three parties). This explains why a general Assembly constituency (Kangpokpi) is delimited in the Senapati district for the Meitei/general population.

Valley districts:
f) Imphal West:
Population - 444,382
Hindus: 330,994 (74.48%)
Others: 73,705 (16.59%)
Muslims: 19,124 (4.3%)

ST Population of district - 21,118 (= 4.75% of district population)
Dominant ST group: Kabui (Naga) - 9,042
---------------------------------------------
g) Imphal East:
Population - 394,876
Hindus: 240,347 (60.87%)
Others: 67,741 (17.16%)
Muslims: 62,932 (15.94%)

ST Population of district - 24,712 (= 6.26% of district population)
Dominant ST group: Tangkhul (Naga) - 5,896
---------------------------------------------
h) Thoubal district:
Population - 364,140
Hindus: 221,096 (60.72%)
Muslims: 86,849 (23.85%)
Others: 50,819 (13.96%)

ST Population of district - 4,274 (= 1.17% of district population)
Dominant ST group: Thadou (Kuki) - 1,154
---------------------------------------------
i) Bishnupur district:
Population - 206,368
Hindus: 148,903 (72.15%)
Others: 38,763 (18.78%)
Muslims: 14,194 (6.88%)

ST Population of district - 6,143 (= 2.95% of district population)
Dominant ST group: Kom (Kuki) - 2,229
---------------------------------------------
Conclusion 3: Thus, except for Thoubal district, Hindus and Others (followers of Sanamahi religion, nature-worshippers, etc.) dominate over the rest of the religious affinities.

To follow next: What does the Manipur verdict really mean?

Nepal peace accord and Northeast updates (November 1, 2011)

1) Nepal peace accord: Linky

Breaking a political deadlock that has lasted more than three years, Nepal's political parties arrived at a historic agreement on the peace process, Constitution writing and power-sharing late on Tuesday evening. The Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), the Nepali Congress (NC), the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), and the Madhesi parties settled the future of 19,602 Maoist combatants, agreeing to integrate a maximum of 6,500 fighters into the Nepal Army (NA) and provide rehabilitation and cash packages to the rest.
...
According to the deal, the former combatants would be integrated in a newly-created special directorate under the Nepal Army, which will also include NA soldiers and personnel from other security forces. The directorate will be responsible for development works, industrial security, forest security, and disaster relief. Combatants will be integrated on an individual basis, and will have to meet the norms of the security force. But there will be flexibility on age, marital status, and educational qualification. To determine ranks, the norms of the security organs will be taken into account. There will be bridging and educational courses for the combatants.
...
A Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Disappearances Commission, a high-level political mechanism to oversee the peace and Constitution process, and an experts' team to address state restructuring issues would also be constituted. The parties have also agreed to complete the process of regrouping of combatants by November 23, and prepare the first draft of the Constitution by November 30. While not in the agreement, sources said a power-sharing arrangement had also been worked out, whereby the NC will lead the government which will hold elections after Constitution promulgation.

More on this: Linky

UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepali Congress President Sushil Koirala, CPN-UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal and Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha leader Bijay Kumar Gachhadar signed the time-bound agreement that commits these political forces for a national consensus on completing the peace and constitution making process resolving the contentious issues in the integration of Maoist combatants.
...
The deal commits to integrate maximum 6,500 Maoists combatant in the Nepal Army, offers package worth between Rs. 600,000 to Rs. 900,000 for combatants opting rehabilitation and cash package between Rs. 500,000 to Rs. 800,000 for combatants choosing the voluntary retirement option. According to the deal, the regrouping of combatants along with the return of the properties seized during the conflict to rightful owners and dismantling of the paramilitary structure of the Young Communist League will be completed within November 23. The agreement provides a way forward for addressing the fate of over 19,000 former Maoist combatants living in the seven main and 21 satellite cantonments since 2006. The international community including the United Nations had been putting pressure the Nepali actors to reach an agreement to address the future of former combatants.
...
The issue of rank determination will be resolved on the basis of existing standards of the security forces by the prime minister-led Special Committee. The date of combatants' enrolment in the Maoist Army recorded by UNMIN, the provision of allocation of rank in the security forces would be kept in mind so as not to adversely affect the career prospect of regular recruits of the existing security agencies.
...
In the agreement signed on Tuesday, leaders have committed to form a high level mechanism to conduct discussions for concluding the peace and constitution making process. They have agreed to immediately form an expert panel from the CA instead of a commission to seek recommendation on the restructuring of the state. They have pledged to proceed ahead in preparation of the first draft of the constitution within a month. The efforts to form national unity government once the peace and constitution making process gains momentum in accordance to agreement signed on Tuesday. Leaders involved in negotiations have said there is no possibility of change in government leadership before the November 30 deadline of the CA. There is a tacit understanding between the Nepali Congress that a Maoist led government will continue until the promulgation of new constitution and NC will lead the next government that will ovesee the general elections as per the new constitution, according to Maoist and NC leaders involved in cross-party talks.

Meanwhile, Linky

The hardliner faction of the UCPN (Maoist) led by Vice Chairman Mohan Baidya has objected to the historic seven-point deal signed by the major political parties and Madhesi Morcha on Tuesday evening to conclude the peace process. During the three-party meeting at Prime Minister's official residence in Baluwatar, the Baidya faction opposed the content of the agreement. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal tried to convince the Baidya group for more than two hours in Baluwatar, but the hardliners refused to own up the agreement, delaying the signing ceremony.
...
The rift inside the Maoists party began primarily after the Central Committee (CC) on July 22 decided to follow the path of peace and constitution on which hardliner faction registered note of dissent. The sixth extended plenum of Maoists held in Gorkha last year had passed the line of peace and revolt at the same time, latter Dahal changed the party's political course to peace and constitution. After the Maoist decided to adopt the line of peace and constitution, Dahal and PM Bhattarai stood together and the hardliner faction began to feel increasingly isolated inside the party.

After that the hardliner faction wrote series of note of dissent on party's numerous decisions, and Dahal and Bhattarai continued to push through on peace and constitution on the basis of the majority they hold inside the party. The intra-party rift became even pricklier after the party decided to handover the keys of arms container immediately after the formation of government under Maoist's leadership.The hardliner faction was pressing Dahal and Bhattarai not to take any decision before the CC meet which begins from November 3. Leaders from the Dahal camp said Dahal took a huge risk in party's history to forge an agreement on peace despite the objection from the hardliners. Leaders say if Dahal fails to manage the rift it might cause split in the party. Dahal had taken similar risk inside the party by signing Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2006.

My comments:
a) The maoist integration issue has been one of the biggest sticking points in the whole imbroglio. Now that a 6,500 number has been arrived at, and the integrated combatants' responsibility is not to include internal security, the Nepal Army should breathe easy on this sticking point and let the whole thing slide through.
b) This is one of the biggest face-savers that the maoists should consider as manipulated out of their People's War. It would be detrimental to the maoists' to keep pushing the envelope past this stage. But knowing the devil, it would not be entirely surprising to see such a move. Yet, the presence of Dr. Bhattarai calms one's nerves for the time-being.
c) Much of the stalemate must have been broken following the recent visit of the PM, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai to India. The Indian footprint in the whole peace and reconciliation process was more and more overt following the rise of Dr. Bhattarai as a consensus candidate for PMship. So there you go: India 1, China 0 in a continuation of Linky
d) Another exhibit in this direction is the importance placed to Shri. Bijay Kumar Gachhedar in the agreement. Overnight, the Nepali triangle has become a quadrilateral with the Madhesis becoming a full force in the political spectrum by this very act. Their de facto joining the big players league was not in question given the makeup of the coalition that led to the "coronation" of Dr. Baburam Bhattarai.
e) It is no secret that the Indian think-tank has been in favor of the Madhesis given the cross-border connections between the Madhesis in Nepal and the people of Bihar/UP. Ideally, the next best thing would be to let Shri. Nitish Kumar make the inevitable cross-border visit and forge many development projects with benefits to both sides of the divide.
f) In terms of the internal dynamics of the maoist party, the vocal anti-Indian faction of Mohan Baidya Kiran seems to have been sidelined. Their opposition to BIPPA and this deal is just pure theatrics given that Nepal has signed BIPPA with many other countries before it signed with India. It is in India's interest to forge a dominant grouping inside the maoist plank led by Dr. Bhattarai with Prachanda inside the house as a big player. This will keep the vocal anti-Indian faction out of the camp and with complete freedom to release their bodily fluids into the wind. It should not be entirely surprising to see the maoists split vertically along the Prachanda-Bhattarai axis with the Kiran grouping forming a splinterist "true" maoist faction. This is only natural for a People's War-driven movement. There is a big segment of the Nepalese population from which this camp can derive sympathy over its natural course.
g) There will be further splits into uncontrollable factions over the next few years, but with the main hardliners inside the camp, and with BIPPA signed, India and Nepal can forge ahead in their common paths of lifting the teeming millions out of poverty and desperation.
h) So make that India 1, China 0 effectively an India 1, China -1. However, it is important to note that only the foolish will persist on certainties at this stage!

2) On Nepal-Bhutan relations, Refugee problem in Bhutan: Linky

Two small bombs exploded in a Bhutanese border town just three days ahead of the royal wedding on Oct 13. Responsibility for the blasts was claimed by the United Revolutionary Front of Bhutan (URFB), an insurgent group based in Nepal, which said it had timed the explosions to draw attention to the “gross national sufferings of the Bhutanese people”. This incident highlights laidback Bhutan’s startlingly hardline approach to preserving its traditional culture and identity. This pillar of its Gross National Happiness (GNH) index, has not been helpful in lending happiness to some segments of its population. Bhutan’s bid to preserve its unique identity is rooted in its Buddhist beliefs, but it has to resolve the problem of thousands of Hindu Bhutanese Nepalis languishing in refugee camps and the small but growing Christian population who seek recognition of their religion and to be allowed to build churches.

The biggest blot on Bhutan’s history is its attempt to deal with the Nepali people within its borders. The Nepali claim brutality. The Bhutan government says they are illegal immigrants. People of Nepali descent have been settling in southern Bhutan in the late 1800s and early 1900s, as Bhutan has a porous border with hardly any immigration control. By the 1950s the number of Nepali immigrants swelled to such an extent that a Citizenship Act was passed in 1958 to stem the flow. Those who could show proof that they have lived in Bhutan at least 10 years prior to 1958 could stay but those who could not were deemed illegal immigrants. In 1988, the government conducted its first real census exercise and decided to force out the “illegal” immigrants, perceiving a threat to the country’s cultural identity. But poorly trained census officials who were sometimes arbitrary in their classification of who were non-nationals triggered a great deal of tension. About the same time, the government also started enforcing the Bhutanese traditional dress and language code.

These measures combined to alienate even the genuine citizens of Nepali descent. Militancy grew in the south and and turned violent in September 1990 when protest marches were held in different districts. Schools were torched and local government officials stripped of their national attire. The army responded with mass arrests that triggered more protests and arrests that sent thousands of ethnic Nepalis fleeing the country between 1990 and 1992. They settled in seven UNHCR refugee camps in South-Eastern Nepal. Meanwhile, many poor, border-dwelling Nepalis claimed to be refugees in order to receive aid, and within a year, the camps’ population grew to more than 100,000, according to UNHCR. The United States, Australia, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands and Denmark offered to resettle the refugees and by the end of 2010, 40,000 of the refugees were resettled and more are slated to be resettled in the coming years. It is often these resettled Bhutanese of Nepali descent who work hard to ensure their plight is not forgotten abroad. For them, and for some of the ethnic Nepalis still in Bhutan (about 150,000), Bhutan’s promotion of Buddhist culture has been a source of distress. This festering refugee problem looks set to haunt Bhutan in the international arena for years to come.

Another brewing problem is among the Christians, estimated to be between 6,000 and 15,000, who would like to see their religion recognised. They are not allowed to build churches or proselytise. Several stories have appeared in Bhutan’s newspapers claiming that converts were being paid money by Christians from Western countries, which Christian leaders in the country vehemently deny. But the government is deeply suspicious of Christian evangelism and under proposed Section 463 of the Penal Code that carries a jail term, “a defendant shall be guilty of the offence of proselytisation if the defendant uses coercion or other forms of inducement to cause the conversion of a person from one religion or faith to another,” according to the government-run Kuensel newspaper.

Prime Minister Jigmi Yoser Thinley told Compass the proposed clause in the penal code was “essentially… to deter conversion,” saying there was no reason why Christians should seek to induce others to join their faith. “There are a few Christians and followers of other faiths as well (in Bhutan), and there is no difficulty with that,” Thinley said. “That is good… we promote diversity of cultures. But then, when there are those who try to convert others without understanding the values, the principles, and the essence of the other religion, we have here what constitutes the worst form of discrimination.” While the constitution recognises a citizen’s freedom to religion, only Buddhist and Hindu organisations have been registered by the Chhoedey Lhentshog – the country’s authority which regulates religious organisations.

About 75% of Bhutan’s population is Buddhist, and Hindus, mainly ethnic Nepali, account for around 22%. Bhutan’s Minister for Home and Culture Minjur Dorji told Compass that the passing and implementation of the penal code amendment “may take some more time, due to procedures involved.” Asked if the law could be misused to make false allegations and thereby create religious disharmony, as in Indian states with similar anti-conversion legislation, Dorji said he would not allow that to happen. The Christians remain hopeful that the country’s leaders will move beyond the distrust of their religion and discussions are going on.

It should also be noted that Nepal too followed the Bhutanese role and enforced a "national dress," but that is a tale for a different day.
3) GNLA ban view: Linky

“Recently, the Centre sought comments from the state government on whether it (GNLA) should be declared a banned outfit,” a senior government official told reporters here today.

The official said the comments would be sent “as early as possible”. However, the state has not been in favour of recommending that the GNLA be declared a proscribed outfit, but it would do all it can to wipe out the group. Personnel belonging to the elite Combat Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) and the BSF, apart from the state Special Weapons And Tactics (SWAT) commandos, are currently engaged in flushing out GNLA cadres from Garo hills.

4) Interview with Bertil Lintner: Linky

Q: Do you think the recent peace initiatives taken by New Delhi with several militant groups in the north-east are sufficient to solve the insurgency problem in the trouble-torn region?

A: It's definitely a good step taken by New Delhi. The expulsion of ULFA leaders from Bangladesh, and the subsequent arrests of Anthony Shimray, the NSCN-IM's main arms procurer, and United National Liberation Front chairman Sana Yaima indicate that India is determined to wipe out insurgency movements in the north-east once and for all to clear the area for trade with Myanmar. But the ethnic problems in the north-eastern India are not going to disappear even if the militants are neutralised; there are genuine grievances that has to be addressed as well. Many people in the region feel neglected and marginalised. Development has to reach those areas, and their ethnic identities have to be respected. Frankly speaking, many of them feel that they are not Indians.

5) Manipur People's Party -- Nexus between politicians and terror: Linky

Manipur Peoples Party vice-president Y. Mangi Singh and four others, arrested for alleged involvement in illegal arms, were today remanded in police custody till November 8. Police said a team of commandos arrested Y. Biju, 33, after recovering two pistols and six live rounds of ammunition from him at his Khagempali locality yesterday morning during a frisking operation which was conducted following information that weapons were going to change hands in the area. Biju, the younger brother of an alleged cadre of the militant Peoples Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak, told interrogators that four persons were coming to collect the weapons from him.
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The police are also investigating whether the weapons were meant for use during campaigning for Assembly elections, which are expected to be held in February 2012. The MPP, a major Opposition party in the state, is silent on the development. Mangi Singh is a prominent person in Imphal East. He contested the last Assembly elections from Heingang constituency of Imphal East and his name has been doing the rounds for candidature this time as well.

6) Talks with UPDS: Linky

An hourlong meeting in Delhi between representatives of the Union home ministry and the United People’s Democratic Solidarity resolved all the hurdles in signing the proposed accord between the government and the Karbi militant outfit. A jubilant UPDS leadership said the conclave removed all the blocks and the pact would be signed within the next 10 days according to the time and date scheduled by the government. “We are happy with the decisions taken in today’s meeting,” said UPDS general secretary Saiding-Eh.
...
“The changes are very minor and these are not related to the context of the accord. There are four or five such points which the state government wants to change. We had some objection in case of one or two — even the home ministry had some objections to one or two clauses — anyway, all these have been resolved in the discussions and in a friendly atmosphere all the recently emerged points have been brought to a meaningful solution,” said UPDS joint secretary Tong-Eh-Nongloda after the meeting. Nongloda, however, did not explain the minor changes.
...
The proposed accord for a Karbi Anglong territorial autonomous council was scheduled to be signed last September, but the date was postponed to October 24. On October 21, the UPDS announced that it would not sign the accord if the government climbed down from the decision of forming a neutral interim administrator. The term of the Congress-led existing Karbi Anglong autonomous council ends in December, prompting the party to pressure Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi into postponing the date of signing the accord to November.

7) In a continuation from Linky, Nabam Tuki sworn in as Arunachal Chief Minister: Linky

Mr. Tuki, the first Chief Minister from the Nyishi community, told reporters that his priority was to maintain communal harmony among all tribes for development of the land-locked State. Mr. Tuki was chosen as Mr. Gamlin’s successor by the Congress high command after the latter stepped down.

Northeast terrorist group updates (October 25, 2011)

Assam:
1) ULFA talks go past the talks-about-talks stage: Linky

The charter of demands includes constitutional amendments to give Assam greater control over its natural resources, revenue generation, participation in the planning process, ensuring a secure demographic situation, besides accelerated and balanced development. Rajkhowa told reporters before the talks that they would "explain long-standing demands of the region and the aspirations of the people". The meeting will be formal with the minutes to be signed and a notification to be issued in the gazette, official sources said.
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The Times of India reports that the ‘Executive committee’ of United Liberation front of Asom (ULFA), which met in Guwahati city on September 16, adopted a resolution for making the changes as decided at the general council meeting held in Nalbari in July 31. The resolution is about bringing forth amendments to the ULFA's constitution, which will bring the command structure of the different battalions of ULFA by placing them under the ‘Chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa, instead of ‘Commander in Chief ‘Paresh Baruah. It is to be noted that ULFA militants have been grouped into four battalions - the 27th battalion in central Assam, the 28 battalion in upper Assam, 107 battalion in Garo Hills and 709 battalion in lower Assam. The outfit's constitution authorizes only the military wing, headed by the commander-in-chief, to command these units. But with the starting of peace talks and majority of the cadres joining the peace process, the cadres will now have to stay at development centres called Naba Nirman Kendras where they will take up various activities, agriculture being the primary one.

On the ATF faction:

Further, ULFA-ATF has reorganized its member under three groups namely Rongili, Lakhimi and Kopili. Rongili (the cheerful lady) is the identification code for ULFA-ATF’s biggest group based in Myanmar, Lakhimi (the homely lady) is the group still left behind in Bangladesh and Kopili (the speedy river) stands for the erstwhile 27th battalion, which is now temporarily based in Majuli.

More: Linky

The Paresh Barua group of Ulfa has become stronger by 105 cadres at a time when the faction was being seen as one of no consequence since the split in the outfit and resultant depletion in manpower.
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Sources in the home department said Ulfa has four camps in Myanmar with a mobile headquarters in the Sagaing division which is shared by at least 10 militant groups of the Northeast, including the Khaplang faction of the NSCN, People’s Liberation Army, Prepak and UNLF. Sources, however, said there was no confirmation about the recent reports about the attacks on Ulfa camps by Myanmar army. Neog, on the other hand, said it was with the help of the Khaplang faction of the NSCN, the Ulfa cadres travel to Myanmar and back through Nagaland. “The NSCN-K militants provide shelter and act as guides to trek through leech-infested jungles to Myanmar,” he said.

The Security Forces (SFs) reportedly arrested on October 22 four militants, including a central committee member of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), Vimal Roy alias Dergrah Sarania, from Dalu along the Indo-Bangladesh border in West Garo Hills District. The Shillong Times adds that Dergrah Sarania was arrested in 2009 under the Bangladesh Passport act for having fake documents and spent some time in prison in Bangladesh. Sarania is also reportedly close to ULFA ‘commander’ Dristi Rajkhowa.
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Meanwhile, a top militant of the Anti-Talks Faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-ATF), ‘sergeant major’ Biranjay Boro alias Bithn Boro alias Daju Boro from the Chirang District of Assam, surrendered before the Border Security Forces (BSF) in Shillong on September 29, reports The Telegraph. Prior to his surrender, he was working as the area commander of the NDFB, looking after Panbari reserve forest covering areas from Ulubari to Chirang District and also the border areas of Baksa and Barpeta Districts of Assam.

Haldar uncertain on Chetia: Linky
2) Bodoland: Linky

The influential All Bodo Students' Union (ABSU) took out cycle rallies from the North bank of Brahmaputra River between Kokrajhar district to the west and Dhemaji district to the East to press for their demand for a separate state for the Bodo tribe in Assam.
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The ABSU has revived its long-standing but dormant statehood movement after being enthused by the national focus on the on-going Telangana statehood movement.

Meanwhile,

The Telegraph reports that Bodo National Conference (BNC), the umbrella organisation of the Bodo community, on September 26 finalised steps to get the Anti-Talks faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-ATF) on board for talks as early as possible and try to clear misunderstanding with the Pro-Talks faction of National democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-PTF). BNC chief convener Hagrama Mohilary said they would soon be move the Central Government interlocutor P.C. Haldar and Union ‘Home Secretary’ R.K. Singh to accord the same treatment to Daimary as given to ULFA leaders and start the peace process with the group. BNC would send a team to Udalguri on October 1 to hold discussions with the NDFB-PTF leadership.

3) DHD(J): Linky

A probe conducted by the Enforcement Directorate into the money-laundering of the DHD-J revealed that Hojai had landed property and invested crores of rupees in travel agencies, hotels, real estate and investment firms in Nepal from illegally acquired proceeds and extortion money. He allegedly also has an account at a bank in Singapore, which he had opened a few years ago under the fake name of Nirmal Rai. The militant, who allegedly holds a Nepali passport in the name of Nirmal Rai, has travelled to several countries like China, Thailand, Malaysia and South Africa on that passport.
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Central Government has urged the Singapore government to investigate an account in a bank of that country which allegedly belongs to the Black Widow (BW) militant group ‘commander-in-chief’ Niranjan Hojai, reports The Telegraph. (Linky)

Meanwhile, Linky

The Nunisa Faction of Dima Halam Daogah (DHD-Nunisa) has decided climb down from its demand for an autonomous state and settle for a territorial council with proposed boundary that includes parts of Nagaon, Cachar, Karbi Anglong Districts of Assam and Dimapur of Nagaland. The DHD-Nunisa ‘chairman’ Dilip Nunisa said the proposed council is to be named as Dimaraji Territorial Council (DTC) and it would comprise three Districts including existing Dima Hasao and two new Districts namely Garampani District and Borail District, while Borail will include parts of present Dima Hasao and the tribal dominated areas of Cachar, including the ancient Kachari kingdom capital Khaspur. Garampani would include eastern Dima Hasao and neighbouring Nagaon District’s Dimasa-dominated of Lanka, Hojai, Lumding and Kampur and stretch up to Kachari Satra in Dakhinpat under Nagaon sadar Police Station. In addition, Borlangfar, Dhansiri in Karbi Anglong District and Dimapur plains in Nagaland should be included in the existing Dima Hasao District. Nunisa further said, “The territorial council will have 40 elected and four nominated members. The number of Assembly constituencies might be increased from the present one to four and there might be a separate Lok Sabha seat comprising the three territorial council districts.”

Another trial awaits Hojai: Linky
4) UPDS and Karbi Anglong:
Linky

The Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC) today threatened to restart its democratic move for an autonomous council as neither Dispur nor New Delhi was interested in signing the proposed accord for a territorial council with the United People’s Democratic Solidarity.
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“If the government continues its apathy, we shall have to begin afresh our decades-long struggle for a state,” Kro said.

Centre-UPDS accord hits barrier

UPDS sources said the Centre had earlier agreed to install a neutral interim administration till the territorial council came into being, but was now unwilling to go ahead. The signing of the accord for a territorial council was scheduled for October 24 in New Delhi. Initially, the accord was to have been signed in September at Diphu in the presence of chief minister Tarun Gogoi and Union home minister P. Chidambaram. It was later postponed to October 24 and the venue shifted to New Delhi.

The Assam government as well as the local Congress-led autonomous council are said to be against its dissolution, which has led to the impasse. UPDS general secretary Saiding-Eh today said his organisation would not sign the accord if New Delhi continued to stick to its decision. “The setting up of a neutral administration of the Karbi Anglong autonomous council for the period between signing of the peace accord and holding of the next election is the formula agreed between the UPDS negotiating team and Union home minister P. Chidambaram. This agreement had set the ball rolling for preparation of the signing ceremony. The UPDS will decline to sign the proposed agreement on October 24 if the agreed formula is not adhered to,” Saiding-Eh said.
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According to a high-level source of the Karbi Anglong Congress, preparations are on for the next council election scheduled to take place in the first week of December.

“Dissolution means the Congress will be dropped from the council. Setting up of a neutral administration will adversely affect the wave in favour of our party. The credit for upgrading the council will go to UPDS. There might be a gap between people and Congress leaders as power would be in the hands of the neutral administration,” the source said. According to the proposed peace accord, the existing council will be upgraded to a territorial council with more powers. The number of council seats would be increased from the current 28 to 45.

“We expect that the signing of the accord will follow immediately after dissolution of the existing council. The neutral administration will be there, assisted by a 12-member advisory board consisting of members from political parties. Work like delimitation and administrative reforms will be done by the neutral administration and fresh elections will be held on completion of all the work. It seems the Congress thinks they should be allowed to rule even when preparations for the territorial council are on,” said Jaysingh Engleng, a Karbi student leader.

Assam Tribune reports on October 25 that notwithstanding Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi optimism over the possibility of the Government sealing a deal with United People Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) soon, the deadlock continues with the outfit on October 24 sticking to their demand on setting up a neutral autonomous council ahead of the polls. The Chief Minister, however, appeared non-committal, when asked about the demand for dismissal of the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council (KAAC). “I have to consult the autonomous district council, as the body is constituted under the Sixth schedule of the Constitution,” he said. Also, the non-Karbi organizations, comprising different student bodies of Karbi Anglong District, have demanded the Central, State government and the UPDS which is on ceasefire to disclose the charter of demands publicly, reports The Sentinel.

Assam Tribune reports on October 24 that in the face of a fresh standoff with the United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), Union Home Minister, P Chidambaram has invited Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi to join him on October 24 (today) to resolve the deadlock.

5) On NSCN support to non-Dimasa groups in Dima Hasao: Linky

The Assam Tribune quoted the DIG of Police (southern range) Vinod Kumar of saying that confessional statements of persons arrested following the arson and killing (between October 13-16, 2011) indicated that members of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Issak Muivah (NSCN-IM) were involved in the Dima Hasao clashes. Kumar said that the NSCN helped the formation of newly created militant outfit Hill Tiger Force (HTF) and also provided weapons and training and added the NSCN militants came to NC Hills (Dima Hasao) on the eve of the recent clashes and instigated the non-Dimasa people and members of the HTF. Kumar further said that Naga outfit was involved in one of the incidents of setting fire to a village.

Followed by and preceded by Dimasa violence on Hmars:

Times of India reports that about 200 Hmar refugees from Dima Hasao District of Assam have taken shelter in Mizoram's Kolasib District along the Assam border since October 16, following ethnic clashes between Dimasas and other tribes. Many refugees belonging to Hmar, Kuki and other ethnic communities have fled Assam's hill Districts and took shelter in Mizoram due to threats of Dimasa militant groups and other militants. Violence broke out in the Dima Hasao District on October 16 as suspected tribal militants set ablaze 19 houses of Dimasas and sprayed bullets targeting fleeing villagers, killing one person and injuring three others.

6) ANLA:

SFs arrested Ajitu Khaka, ‘finance secretary’ of Adivasi National Liberation Army (ANLA) and NDFB militant, Debison Basumatary alias Hanghw, from two separate locations of Udalguri District on October 23, reports The Telegraph. Khaka was arrested from the Bhutan border in the District. The militant revealed that most of their cadres move under cover along the Bhutan border and do not stay at one place for a long time.

7) Rebels buy homes in Guwahati - NIA orders attachment of flats allegedly belonging to Manipur militant leaders Linky

The mess that is Manipur:
8) In Manipur, NSCN clashes with other Naga sub-tribes:

Kanglaonline reports that an armed encounter took place between the cadres of National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) in a forest at Guitang village under Khoupum Police Station in Tamenglong District on October 7.
...
Referring to the October 7 shoot out in Tamenglong District in Manipur where six cadres of National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) were killed by the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF), the ZUF said it was a sad incident caused by the intrusion by outsiders that had disturbed the peaceful atmosphere, reports Kanglaonline. At any cost the ZUF will safeguard the Zeliangrong land. It then said no others had instigated the ZUF on any activity carry out by the ZUF. “It is natural for us to protect our land and we are doing it with our own volition,” said the ZUF. It alleged that the NSCN-IM had given immense hardship to the Zeliangrong villages in Tamenglong District. The ZUF said the NSCN-IM only imposes its `military rule` in Zeliangrong region when there are so many Naga areas that are untouched by the latter outfit.

9) Nagas and Kukis in Manipur: Linky

Asked at a news conference about the nearly two-month long blockade on the two national highways in Manipur, the home minister said Nagas and Kukis wanted separate districts. Kuki organisations want a separate Sadar Hills district and the Nagas want the Jiribam district carved out of Imphal while also opposing formation of Sadar Hills district.

First, on the Naga demand:

On expiry of the 20-days deadline of Naga bodies given to the Central Government to make ‘alternative arrangement’ for the Nagas in Manipur, the All Naga Students’ Association Manipur (ANSAM) has called for a three-day general strike in the Naga areas, effective from October 21 (today) midnight, reports The Sentinel. On September 29, the United Naga Council had submitted an ultimatum, with a 20-days deadline, to the Central leaders demanding intervention for an “alternative arrangement” for Nagas in Manipur. Since there is no discernible move by the Central government, UNC has resorted to the three-day general strike.
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Meanwhile, the United Naga Council (UNC) has begun its mobilization in `Naga areas` in Manipur regarding the `Alternative Arrangement` while asking the Nagas to remain prepared for any eventuality after October 19. On October 3, the UNC had threatened to agitate in the manner it had violently resorted in 2010, if the demand for the `alternative arrangement` outside the Government of Manipur is not done within 20 days counting from September 29. The UNC said it had communicated with New Delhi on September 29 in connection with the `alternative arrangement` for the Nagas in Manipur.
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Sangai Express reports that Naga civil society organisations of Chandel District will enforce economic blockade on the Imphal-Moreh road till there is an agreement between the United Naga Council (UNC) and Government of Manipur, affirmed the convenor of Chandel Naga Civil Society Coordination Core Committee, Cohring Victor on September 28. Cohring reminded all concerned that the ongoing UNC-sponsored movement is to urge the Government of Manipur that no land of the Nagas should be distorted when there is reorganisation of District boundaries or formation of new Districts.

10) Sadar Hills District Demand: Linky

The Sadar Hills District hood Demand Committee (SHDDC) on October 22 submitted a memorandum to Leishemba Sanajaoba, the titular king of Manipur, seeking his intervention into their demand to create Sadar Hills District. The SHDDC failed to turn up for further talks with the State Government on October 24 which was agreed between the two sides during the talks on October 23 night at the Chief Minister’s bungalow and decided to continue its stir.
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Meanwhile, on October 19 Chief Minister Okram Ibobi reiterated that the Government is considering the demand for upgrading Sadar Hills to a full fledged District. The Chief Minister was speaking at the reception function of Autonomous District Council (ADC) Members elected unopposed from Senapati and Ukhrul ADCs at District Council Bhavan, Sangakpham in Imphal East District on October 18.
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Also, calling upon the Prime Minister of India to intervene for non creation of Sadar Hills District in Mani-pur, the Naga Students' Union Delhi (NSUD) on October 13 held a protest demonstration in New Delhi, reports The Sangai Express. Meanwhile, Manipur Chief Minister O. Ibobi Singh met the Union Home Minister P Chidambaram on the same day.
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Meanwhile, three more women agitators who have been on a fast unto death stir demanding conversion of Sadar Hills to a full fledged District have been arrested by Police and sent to judicial custody on September 30. The arrested women are identified as Kimlhai Lhouvum (50), Hatneng Khongsai (54) and Ngamthem Gangte (54). They started their fast unto death agitation together from August 23.
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Nagaland Post reports that a seven-member delegation of the Church Leaders Forum, Sadar Hills, on September 26 met with Manipur Chief Minister O Ibobi Singh and urged him to fulfill the demand of the Sadar Hills District hood Demand Committee (SHDDC) during a two-hour long meeting at the Chief Minister’s office chamber. Despite the firm stand of the Manipur Government not to declare Sadar Hills as full-fledged District of the State in a ‘hasty’ manner without consulting with different communities and civil society groups, supporters of the SHDDC continued to press the State Government for “full implementation of the Manipur (Hills Areas) District Councils Act, 1971 in the Sadar Hills.

Linky

The Sadar Hills District Demand Committee-sponsored blockade has earned the dubious distinction of being the longest economic blockade not only in Manipur but perhaps in the entire country. The 25 lakh blockade-saturated people of the state, however, have stopped lamenting about the inconveniences, and are learning the virtues of frugality instead. The blockade imposed on Imphal-Dimapur (NH-39) and Imphal-Jiribam (NH-37) highways, demanding creation of Sadar Hills district out of Senapati district, entered its 70th day today.

Before this, the longest blockade was imposed by the All Naga Students Association, Manipur, with full support from the United Naga Council (UNC). They blocked supply to Imphal from outside the state for 68 days against holding of district council elections as well as an alternative administrative arrangement for Nagas in Manipur last year. The blockade came shortly before the Okram Ibobi Singh government prevented NSCN (I-M) leader Th. Muivah from entering Manipur through Mao Gate, along the Imphal-Dimapur highway last year.

11) KCP: Linky

Kanglaonline reports that the ‘commander-in-chief’ of Kangleipak Communist Party-Mobile Task Force (KCP-MTF), Chirom Tiken Meitei alias Sunil Meitei who escaped from the lockup of Porompat Police Station on October 3 was killed by Imphal West Police commandos during an operation conducted at Yumnam Huidrom Awang Leikai in Imphal West District on October 11. One .9 mm pistol along with four live rounds was recovered from his possession.
Addressing media persons, Manipur Director General of Police (DGP) Y. Joykumar stated that based on specific information, the Imphal west police commandos raided the house of Longjam Shyam (56), where the militant leader Sunil Meitei was taking shelter in an underground hideout inside the house. Longjam Shyam is a retired police constable and he is presently the ‘secretary in-charge’ for home of KCP-MTF, Sunil Meitei faction, the DGP added. One family member of Longjam Shyam disclosed that Sunil Meitei was staying at their house since the night of October 9. Sunil Meitei was arrested from Bangalore on June 29 and brought back to Imphal for questioning on July 21.
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The Telegraph reports that Sunil Meitei, a leader of Kangleipak Communist Party-Mobile Task Force (KCP-MTF) escaped from the lock-up of Porompat Police Station in Imphal East in the night of October 3. Seven Police personnel on duty at the Police station, including the officer-in-charge, have been suspended.

12) UNLF chargesheet: Linky

The National Investigation Agency is ready to file its second chargesheet against the United National Liberation Front, a banned militant outfit fighting for Manipur’s sovereignty.

The NIA had filed its first chargesheet against 19 accused, including UNLF chairman Raj Kumar Meghen alias Sana Yaima and vice-chairman Khundong Tomba alias Bikramjit alias Sunil, on February 14 this year. “Four of the chargesheeted accused who are absconding, including Tomba, have been declared proclaimed offenders,” the source said. He rued that the efforts of the security forces to bust the UNLF’s network had suffered a setback when Tomba, who was arrested in Guwahati on May 1, 2010, went into hiding after jumping bail.

The UNLF vice-chairman, who was released on bail on July 30, 2010, is now believed to be in Myanmar. Tomba was let off on bail as Assam police failed to file a chargesheet against him within the stipulated 90 days. According to law, if the chargesheet is not filed within the stipulated time, the accused can be released on bail by default. A chargesheet was filed against Tomba after the NIA took over the investigation of the case last year.

“Tomba has become a major headache for Indian security forces since taking over as the acting chairman of the UNLF, following the arrest of the outfit’s chairman Raj Kumar Meghen, on November 30, 2010. In Meghen’s absence, he is now coordinating all the anti-national activities of the UNLF,” the source said. The NIA is also probing how Tomba managed to escape to Myanmar and who were the people who helped him. The other three absconding accused whose names figure in the NIA’s first chargesheet are Brahmachari Mayum Angobi Sharma, Y. Nabinchand alias Abo and Brahmachari Mayum Gopal Krishna Sharma.

13) Paramilitary job sop for militants - Ibobi govt moves Delhi on offer Linky

Nagaland and Arunachal:
14) NSCN-KK faction in the form of an MLA:

Times of India reports that the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) issued a threat to the sitting Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) of Dimapur, Azheto Zhimomi, for "his act of open defiance and abuse of the outfit".

According to the statement by NSCN-K, Zhimomi, who is also a timber businessman, was requested by the outfit to "clear pending annual revenue accounts of his firm". In response, he invited a NSCN-K cadre, Hemail Sumi, to his official residence in Thahekhu village, Dimapur, to finalize the balance of accounts, accordingly, the cadre, as per the given appointment, went to Azheto's residence. "However, to his surprise, Azheto Zhimomi, along with members of NSCN (Khole-Kitovi) was standing at the gate and apprehended Hemail Sumi there itself," the statement alleged, adding, "with the directions of Azheto Zhimomi, Hemail Sumi was whisked away and is still being held in confinement by the NSCN (Khole-Kitovi) at the Khehoi camp."
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The Telegraph reports that the ‘chairman’ of the Khole-Kitovi faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-Khole-Kitovi), Khole Konyak, is on a tour in Mon District in an attempt to dispel misgivings and doubts among the Konyak people about his outfit. This was Khole’s first visit to the District since formation of the faction in July, after leaders of the Khehoi designated camp of the NSCN-K (Khaplang) “expelled” leader S.S. Khaplang from the outfit in retaliation against his autocratic decision to remove the outfit’s armed wing ‘chief’, Khole Konyak, from the post.
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Nagaland Post reports that an 18-member United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) delegation led by its ‘chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa made a courtesy call on the collective leadership of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khole-Kitovi (NSCN-Khole-Kitovi) faction ‘chairman’ Khole Konyak and ‘general secretary’ N. Kitovi Zhimomi at Khehoi camp in Dimapur on September 13. The primary purpose of the visit by the ULFA delegation was to “express and appreciate the Naga reconciliation process, which had impressed the neighbouring nations and people”.
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The Telegraph reports that the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) said that Anti-talks faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-ATF) ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Barua is in China and not in Myanmar. Rubbishing reports of Barua being in Myanmar, taking shelter in Khaplang’s headquarters not far from the Indo-Myanmar border, kilonser (minister) for information and publicity, Wangtin Naga told The Telegraph over phone from his hideout somewhere in Mon District of Nagaland that Barua is currently in Yunnan province of China.

‘Envoy’ to the collective leadership of the outfit, Kughalu Mulatonu, quoting reports from Myanmar, said the military might have overrun a few mobile camps of the NSCN-K but there was no report of any casualty. Mulatonu said some weeks back New Delhi had supplied over 50 trucks laden with arms and ammunition to Myanmar to flush out Indian militants taking refuge in Myanmar. Mulatonu and Tikhak have expressed resentment to the Government of India for supplying arms and ammunition to Myanmar to wage war against the NSCN-K while talks of peace are on. Further, Kughalu Mulatonu blamed the Forum for Naga Reconciliation (FNR) for the split in NSCN-K in June. In a statement, Kughalu Mulatonu, blamed Wati Aier and “his FNR for the split” in the outfit in June that resulted in one faction headed by S.S.Khaplang and the other by ‘General’ Khole Konyak and N.Kitovi Zhimomi. Mulatonu described the FNR act as fratricide and demanded that it explain the real motive of exclusion of other Naga political groups in the reconciliation process.

15) On the same theme, but from a different place: Bomb blast outside Minister's residence:

Nagaland Post reports that a low intensity bomb exploded inside the compound of State social welfare minister, N. Loken, at Leimapokpam in Bishnupur District on October 18. According to Police sources, the bomb, a local made, was hurled by unidentified militants. No casualty was reported in the blast. Various militant outfits are demanding siphoning off funds released by the Centre for the scheme sponsored by it to the State social welfare department.

16) ENPO: Linky

The Eastern Nagaland People’s Organisation (ENPO) today ruled out violent means to press the Centre for a separate “frontier Nagaland” state. The ENPO, which has rejected the offer of an autonomous council for Kiphire, Mon, Longleng and Tuensang districts, said they would resort to democratic means to press for a separate state.
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On the Centre’s rejection of “frontier Nagaland” state, the ENPO member said their movement originated from the grassroots and not from few people. He said the four districts have their own history which the Centre cannot ignore.

Mizoram:
17) HPC-D: Linky

The Hmar People’s Convention- Democratic (HPC-D) is likely to split into two factions following the impeachment of its founder president, Lalhmingthanga Sanate sometimes back.
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The Sangai Express reports that the executive council of the Hmar People’s Convention-Democratic (HPC-D) in its emergency meeting held on September 29 resolved and removed their ‘president’ Lalhminthang Sanate. According to a press release jointly signed by secretary information John F Hmar and information publicity officer David L Hmar, Lalhminthang Sanate, without even informing and consulting the executive committee of the HPC-D signed the Deed of Agreement and merged the HPC-D as a member of the Kuki National Organisation (KNO). Declaring the Deed of Agreement signed by Lalhminthang as null and void, the HPC-D apologised to the Hmar people for allowing a traitor to lead the party and the people it represented.

Meghalaya:
18) ANVC:

Shillong Times reports that Centre’s interlocutor PC Haldar on October 19 said that the Union Government is still examining the political demands of the Garo militant outfit, Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC), which is currently under ceasefire agreement, for creation of the Garoland Territorial Council in line with that of the Bodoland Territorial Council in Assam. “We have had a discussion with the ANVC on this matter. The Union Government is still examining their demand,” Haldar, who is the Centre’s interlocutor for talks said. He however said that no specific time line has been set by the Union Government.
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The Telegraph reports that the Meghalaya Government has sought more time to finalise the long-pending demands of the Garo hills-based militant outfit, the Achik National Volunteers Council, (ANVC) despite the Centre’s request to speed up the process. Chief minister Mukul Sangma, during his recent visit to Delhi, met Union home minister P. Chidambaram and discussed the settlement of ANVC’s demands. The key demands of the ANVC, currently in ceasefire, include creation of a Garoland autonomous council on the lines of the Bodoland Territorial Council and direct funding from the Centre for the administration of the proposed council. The Centre had earlier sought the state’s views on ANVC’s demands and subsequently a high-level committee was formed to give its final views on the issue.

The ANVC had submitted its charter of demands to the Prime Minister and the home minister besides the state political leaders. However, the State Government has viewed the demand of the ANVC to have a separate council and to have direct funding from the Centre as a contentious issue, which required further deliberation. The tripartite ceasefire agreement between the Centre, State Government and the ANVC was extended by another year effective from Oct 1, adds Shillong Times.

19) GNLA:

The Shillong Times reports that Police killed a senior Garo National Liberation army (GNLA) ‘deputy area commander’ Dilseng alias Bashish on the outskirts of Nengmaldalgre village, 6 kilometers from Williamnagar in East Garo Hills District on October 18. The ‘chief’ of GNLA Sohan D Shira who happened to be with the group narrowly escaped.

20) HNLC:

Telegraph reports that the former ‘chairman’ of Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), Julius Dorphang and a member of the special operations team (SOT) of the Meghalaya Police, Joey Marbaniang were arrested on September 26 following the assault of a surrendered HNLC cadre on September 24.
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The Sentinel reports that Julius Dorphang, former ‘Chairman’ of the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), along with Special Operation Team (SOT), assaulted a surrendered cadre of the HNLC at Paltinum Discothèque at Polo Towerson in Shillong, East Khasi Hills District on September 24. The surrendered HNLC cadre, identified as Shemphang Khalukhi, was seriously injured in the brawl.

Meanwhile, the HNLC has issued a warning to the Nepalese (Linky) in Meghalaya to refrain from activities which affect the indigenous Khasis living in the Langpih area along the Meghalaya-Assam border in the Meghalaya side. A report says that Khasi Students Union (KSU) member Michael Jyrwa (23) and his three relatives were seriously injured in an attack by four Nepalese armed with sharp weapons at Nongsohphoh, Upper Mawprem on September 24.
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The All Assam Gorkha Students’ Union (AAGSU) on September 24 registered its protest against the branding of Nepalese staying in Assam as illegal Bangladeshis, reports The Telegraph.
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The Assam Tribune reports that the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) alleged that the Meghalaya Government is not sincere to hold talks with the rebel group and warned that it would continue its armed struggle. “We are not against peace. We had done our homework and had submitted a letter to the government in 2004...But the State Government is not sincere,” HNLC ‘publicity secretary’ Sainkupar Nongtraw said in an email. The reaction from the HNLC came within a week of Chief Minister Mukul Sangma saying that the Government was open to hold talks with the militant group to ensure that the issues raised by them could be addressed through constitutional means. Sangma had said that despite offering talks from various platforms, the Government was yet to get any communication from the outfit.

Tripura:
21) ATTF-NLFT:

An unofficial report said that the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) Head Quarter (HQ) located at Satcherri in Bangladesh had recently fallen to National Liberation front of Tripura (NLFT) following most of the remaining ATTF militants joining hands with their rival-NLFT, reports Tripurainfo. In this regard, unofficial sources said, “The process began last year when ATTF suffered a vertical split with Sachindra Debbarma launching a coup against the president Ranjit Debbarma. Both the ATTF and NLFT were already suffering severe financial crisis and loss of manpower and hold following steady and continuous surrenders of top leaders and lower level cadres with arms”.
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The Shillong Times reports that outgoing Director General of Police (DGP) K Saleem Ali said the insurgency is still a major challenge when it comes to internal security in Tripura though it suffered a lot during the past few years. DGP further said that All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), one of the frontline insurgent groups is on the brink of collapse as its archrival National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) had snatched away almost all weapons, according to intelligence inputs and the morale of NLFT is also very low as its cadre strength has scaled down to 100-120. However, the DGP warned that they (NLFT) are desperately trying to boost the strength by recruiting new guys during the winter keeping in mind of the next Assembly election slated for 2013. Saleem Ali further said, “We have credential inputs about the existence of around 20 hideouts in Bangladesh in spite of their efforts to flush out insurgents holed up in their soil. There are reports of procuring Bangladesh ration cards by some rebel leaders and staying there with their families”.
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Director General of Police, Tripura, K Saleem Ali on September 22 said that militants are getting themselves re-organized in Tripura with better coordination among different factions, reports The Sentinel. Ali further said that militant activities were reported recently to be more vigorous than last several months in border adjacent areas like Kanchanpur, Chowmanu, Gandacherra and Raishyabari. However, Ali stated that the insurgent groups are suffering from acute crisis of manpower since late.

22) Other connections between groups:

Union Home Ministry on October 20 said that terrorist outfits National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and Meitei extremist outfits of Manipur continue to have close links between themselves to carry out subversive activities, reports The Sentinel.
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Meanwhile, highly placed sources in the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said that the Police and Security Forces in the NE should always remain alert as the Maoists always try to capitalize on mass movements to establish their roots and the entire region, of late, is facing public upsurge on different issues, Assam Tribune reports.
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Assam Power Minister Pradyut Bordoloi said the state government has proof that Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) is trying to gain foothold in the Northeast by trying to organise protests against Hydel Power Projects, reports Economic Times. Bordoloi on October 7 said, "Opposing mega power projects and gaining foothold among people is the new modus operandi of Left-wing extremism. We have evidence to substantiate that Maoists are looking to make inroads in Sadiya area of the Tinsukia District". An officer with one of the intelligence agencies said the growing presence of Naxals [Left Wing Extremists] in the Tinsukia District, a stronghold of the Anti-Talks faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-ATF) and adjoining District of Arunachal Pradesh was a security concern. Maoists have initiated a recruitment drive in the area and are targeting the youth of the area. Bordoloi further said, "To counter Maoist influence, we are initiating developmental measures. We will install transmission line along the Dholla-Sadiya Bridge. This bridge over river Brahmaputra will cut down the traveling time between Assam and Arunachal Pradesh".

23) More on the PLA-maoist nexus: Linky
24) CIA-ISI nexus:

A former top brass of the Intelligence Bureau (IB), who did not wish to be named has accused the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of fomenting trouble in the northeast through insurgency, reports The Times of India. He said, "The ISI-CIA combination, active in the region, is fomenting insurgency to destabilize the region". He added that the ISI was helping northeast militants to create trouble and the CIA is providing support. Both CIA and ISI are working to create terrorist groups in the world." Stating that the CIA-ISI combine was providing "logistics" to the ultras of the region, he said, "We can stop this if we go for overall development of the northeast." He said "some neighboring countries" were harboring NE militants by providing them a safe haven for setting up of training camps.

25) China connection:

China and Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) supports Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), the Manipur based outfit, in its bid to form a ‘Strong United Front’ along with Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) and Kashmiri militants, reports Times of India. Officials claimed that ISI was funding PLA for supplying arms and ammunition to Maoists in the country and a "Strategic United Front" was being made to carry out attacks in India and on Security Forces in the Naxal-affected areas. An official source said, "ISI and PLA are in touch and supplying Maoists with arms. They are supposedly using China as the alternative route." The special cell of Delhi Police has learnt that the chief of the political wing of the PLA - Irengbam Chaoren - is hiding in China and is operating an arms syndicate from there. The Police have also come to know that PLA, having over 1,500 cadres, was planning to liaise with terrorist outfits based in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), including Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and separatist groups based in Jammu and Kashmir and the northeast. The revelations were made by two top PLA leaders - N Dilip Singh (51) and Arun Kumar Singh Salam (36) – arrested in New Delhi. "N Dilip Singh and Arun Kumar were arrested from a hotel in Paharganj on October 1.
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Deccan Chronicle citing intelligence inputs from top intelligence agency reports that Anti –Talks Faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA- ATF) ‘chairman’ Paresh Baruah received a massive consignment of arms and ammunition worth $2.5 million from China as recently as in May. The consignment includes 1,600 pieces of arms and ammunition, including AK-47s, rocket launchers, light machine guns and 800,000 rounds of ammunition were sent to Paresh Baruah from two units of National Ordinance Factory in North and South China. The consignment was loaded at South Chinese port of Beihai near Vietnam”. It was then brought to the deep sea territory of Bangladesh near Moheshkhali Island. In mid-sea the consignment was shifted to three trawlers and then further transported to Bangladesh. Sources said that two Singapore nationals carried out the job, the input further adds that these men are said to be close to arms smugglers in the region and organize transport for such activities.
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Director of Intelligence Bureau (IB), Nehchal Sandhu on September 15 formally mentioned China’s involvement in the affairs of the Northeast of India, reports The Telegraph. Sandhu in his welcome address at the conference of Directors-General of Police and Inspectors-General of Police said “This conference will review the continuing presence of (Indian insurgent) groups in Myanmar and to some extent in Bangladesh and also in respect of fresh evidence of intrusive interest of the Chinese in the affairs of (insurgent) groups (in the Northeast)”.

26) Hideouts in Bangladesh:

Outlook reports that during the biannual conference of Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) held in Dhaka from September 25 to 30, the BSF handed over a fresh list of Indian insurgents hiding in Bangladesh to the BGB and demanded action against them even as the latter ruled out presence of rebels in Bangladesh.

27) War on the Burma front:

Nagaland Post reports that, taking a step towards closer security cooperation, Yangon, the capital of Myanmar has told New Delhi to provide satellite imagery of North East (NE) militant camps based across the border in Myanmar, so that a military operation can be launched.
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Sources said India is, however, likely to press for sustained operations against the militant outfits operating out of the border areas of the country. Several of the militant outfits including National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), besides People’s Liberation Army (PLA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF), and People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), among others, maintain and operate bases in that country. The Myanmar Army had recently mounted an operation against the militant outfits and destroyed some camps belonging to NSCN-K, where ULFA had stationed their cadres.
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With Tirap and Changlang Districts of Arunachal Pradesh becoming a hotbed of militant activities, the Government has decided to launch a full scale operation in the area. Highly placed security sources told The Assam Tribune that the militants belonging to the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) normally use two major routes to enter India from the camps in Myanmar. One of the routes is through the Mon District of Nagaland and the other through the Tirap and Changlang Districts. But in recent times, the ULFA cadres are mostly using the route through Arunachal Pradesh and launching of an offensive in that area would make it difficult for the militants to maintain the shelters in the place.

Sources revealed that, both National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K) have strong bases in Tirap and Changlang and the militants belonging to the outfits are engaged in extortion and other illegal activities. The outfits even went to the extent of demanding money from some of the legislators of the area and in recent times, the NSCN-IM was also involved in meddling in the political affairs of the State. The outfit also reportedly tried to launch an offensive against the Jarbom Gamlin Government after the Chief Minister approached the Centre with the request to launch an offensive in the area. In addition to both factions of the NSCN and ULFA, the Left Wing Extremists groups are also trying to establish roots in Tirap and Changlang and concerned over the developments, the Government is planning an offensive in the area.
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Sentinel reports that United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and Maoists may try to disturb the public hearing of 3000 MW Dibang Multi Purpose Project scheduled to be held on October 24.
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According to National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) sources, at least one cadre each from NSCN-K and United National Liberation Front (UNLF) were killed as their camps were heavily attacked by the Myanmar Army in Sagaing division on September 14, reports The Telegraph. “Myanmar military has carried out a midnight attack on NSCN and UNLF camps in northern Sagaing division last night,” envoy to the collective leadership of NSCN-K Kughalu Mulatonu told The Telegraph over phone from his hideout. He said at least three army personnel were killed. “Casualty would be high on the Myanmar military side,” he claimed. He said S.S. Khaplang, chairman of the NSCN-K, is still safe at his council headquarters, heavily guarded by his cadres. Mulatonu said it would take time for the military to attack Khaplang’s headquarters but in anticipation of assault the Naga outfit has also mobilised cadres in the area. He said, in June the Government of India supplied over 60 truckloads of arms and ammunition to Myanmar. The shipment of arms and ammunition were transported to Manipur. He said the Nagas may lose the battle this time but not the war. NSCN-K sources said there had been heavy mobilisation of Myanmar army in divisional headquarters in Khamfi, Namjung and Mytkhina.
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Times of India reports that in a boost for Indian security concerns, the Myanmar army launched a second offensive on September 11 in Sagaing province against various Indian militant groups, including United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), who have their bases there. Around 250 cadres of about 10 North-Eastern militant outfits, including Anti Talk Faction of ULFA (ULFA-ATF), National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), People's Liberation Army (PLA), People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) and United National Liberation Front (UNLF), were present in camps at Sagaing in North Myanmar bordering India. Sources said the militant outfits have sent about 200 armed cadres as reinforcement to Myanmar.

Shambhu Singh, Joint Secretary (North-East) of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), said, "We haven't received any official information from the Myanmar Government. We are not sure if there is any casualty or arrests." The Myanmar Army had launched its first attack on September 7. There are reports that ULFA's mobile headquarters at Sagaing was destroyed in the attack. Unconfirmed reports said ULFA ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Baruah and S.S Khaplang, the former ‘chief’ of NSCN-K, managed to escape unhurt. Besides Sagaing, ULFA has three other camps in Myanmar.

28) Illegal firearms, handsets etc.:

Assam Tribune reports that illegal firearms being channeled into the North East (NE) are going to emerge as a major concern in maintaining law and order in a region already infested by dozens of insurgents and subversive groups. Apart from pistols and revolvers, semi-automatic weapons with considerable fire power are being brought into the region. At times American and European weapons have also been recovered from insurgents, which reveal the demand for high-quality firearms.

“Firearms are being brought in by several insurgent outfits on their own, or by middlemen who have contacts in Myanmar and China. Some of these are sophisticated pieces commanding good prices. These already pose a grave risk to innocent people of the region,” a senior intelligence operative said. The threat from illegal firearms is not confined to the region, as some of those can be ferried to other parts of the country. Although, it is yet to be fully corroborated, there are reports that some consignments of illegal firearms brought from across the border into the North East have found their way to the neighbouring States.
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Frequent use of illegally procured satellite phones in the North East region, calls of which can be traced by China, posed a grave threat to the National Security, reports The Assam Tribune. Although there are strong regulations for use of satellite phones in India and most of the leaders of the militant groups of the North East are using illegally procured satellite phones, while, some other influential people are also using such phones. Sources pointed out that satellite phones can be used in India only with permission from the Department of Telecommunication (DoT) and only specific type of International Maritime Satellite Organisation (INMARSAT) are permitted.