Turn the other cheek diplomacy

The recently concluded 17th summit meeting of SAARC leaders at Addu city has come in for criticism on the "appeasement" policy followed by the Indian PM, Shri. Manmohan Singh. Specifically, one commentator states that: Linky 1

However, the Addu Declaration has failed to address India's concern on terrorism.
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Given the fact that India has been a victim of cross-border terrorism for more than three decades now, and by the admission of Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik that "incidents like 26/11 happen every day in Pakistan," the Addu Declaration has clubbed terrorism, transnational organised crimes, illegal trafficking in narcotics and psychotropic substances, illegal human trafficking, piracy and smuggling of small arms together, albeit briefly.

One certainly cannot be in an eternal state of aggressive diplomacy (aka) jingoistic fervor to make a point. Given the enormity of challenges in ensuring connectivity to the Northeast of India, and securing energy resources from Nepal and Bhutan in a grid that spans India and Bangladesh, it would have been suicidal to score an own goal of further persisting with an India-Pakistan equal-equal. India needs to handle Pakistan and vice versa, but these are bilateral issues that need not stalemate a multilateral initiative such as SAARC. In fact, given the Indian reluctance to make J&K, crossborder terrorism as de jure multilateral initiatives, it has been a big surprise that a forum such as SAARC has been hijacked by the India-Pakistan status quo. Divorcing Indian problems with cross-border terror emanating from Pakistan in a multilateral setting that allows the leeway to speak broadly and widely and cutting across many boundaries can at best be termed "Turn the other cheek" diplomacy, at worst as sell-out. I would rather have it the former than the latter. At the very least, it behooves to understand the Prime Minister's logic before mounting noisy protestations at his supposed "sell-outs."

1) From his inaugural address at the summit: Linky 2
On cutting down the sensitive list:

I am happy to announce that, in a major trade liberalization effort, the Government of India has issued a notification to reduce the Sensitive List for the Least Developed Countries under the South Asian Free Trade Area Agreement from 480 tariff lines to 25 tariff lines. Zero basic customs duty access will be given for all items removed with immediate effect. I recognize that non-tariff barriers are an area of concern. India is committed to the idea of free and balanced growth of trade in South Asia. Competition begins at home. Our industries have to learn to compete if our economies are to have a future in this globalised world that we live in. We can all benefit from our respective comparative advantages. These include our hydropower and natural resource endowments, possibilities of earnings from transit, marine resources, our scientific and technological base and above all our young population which will drive consumption and investment in the years ahead.

On connectivity issues:

The theme of this year’s Summit is “Building Bridges”. This eloquently summarizes the imperative of greater regional integration, and is an objective to which India is fully committed. One such initiative taken last year was the launch of the South Asia Forum that has brought eminent South Asians from different walks of life together. In our Summit in Dhaka in 2005, I had suggested a reciprocal initiative to provide unrestricted access to airlines from SAARC States to our four metropolitan cities, and to 18 other destinations in India. Connectivity has partially improved since then. We must take this further. We should aim to conclude a regional Air Services Agreement, for which India would be happy to host a meeting of officials next year.

We have been talking of a Regional Railway Agreement and a Motor Vehicle Agreement for a long time. Let us agree to conclude these agreements as a matter of priority. India, Maldives and Sri Lanka are in the process of developing regional ferry services. We should replicate many more such connectivity arrangements in other parts of our sub-continent.

I commend the Postal Administrations of SAARC for agreeing to establish a South Asian Postal Union. India is happy to host the ad hoc Secretariat for the Union, and to sponsor training courses at our Postal Staff College to train upto ten SAARC officials per year, belonging to interested Member States. We should follow up this agreement by improving our telecommunication linkages to reduce call rates and telecommunication tariffs and interconnection termination charges. India will be ready to facilitate the development of a regional telecommunications infrastructure to improve the quality of connectivity. We should encourage greater broadcasting, television and film exchanges among our countries. It is time that we overcome the information deficit among the SAARC countries. We should encourage our people to know more about each other.

In this spirit, I wish to announce the following initiatives that India will take.

We will host a conclave of the top dozen tour operators from the SAARC region to boost tourism exchanges. We will take the initiative to establish a travelling exhibition on the ancient history of South Asia. This could comprise of a hundred archeologically-significant pieces per country to be selected by member States. The exhibition can be hosted in each of our national museums in turn for three months. Post-graduate courses in the South Asian University have started in July 2010. India will increase the number of SAARC Silver Jubilee Scholarships for the South Asian University from 50 to 100. 75 of these will be at the Masters level and 25 at the doctoral level.

On environmental matters:

Protecting our environment even as we pursue rapid growth is essential. The India Endowment for Climate Change which I had announced last year has been established. We look forward to receiving project proposals from our SAARC partners. We will provide a total of ten scholarships per year to SAARC Member States for post-graduate and doctoral studies in forestry courses at the Forestry Research Institute of India, Dehradun.

2) As a consequence of the push: Linky 3

In his address during the inauguration of the summit on Thursday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had called for full implementation of his six-year-old proposal for unrestricted access to airlines from SAARC states. He had also suggested giving priority to a Regional Railway Agreement and a Motor Vehicle Agreement. The declaration made no mention of an air services agreement but met Dr. Singh's desire for SAARC-wide ferry and rail services. In the absence of seamless air, rail and sea connections among SAARC member-countries due to traditional animosities, unsettled conditions and apprehension about the other country's designs, the common man travelling between some SAARC countries is forced to take circuitous routes. In this respect, the eight leaders at the summit decided to finalise a Regional Railways Agreement and complete the preparatory work on an Indian Ocean Cargo and Passenger Ferry Service by the end of this year.

3) From the Addu declaration, some points that need highlighting: Linky 4

7. To direct the conclusion of the Inter-governmental Framework Agreement for Energy Cooperation and the Study on the Regional Power Exchange Concept as also the work related to SAARC Market for Electricity.
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11. To initiate work towards combating maritime piracy in the region.
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19. To undertake a comprehensive review of all matters relating to SAARC’s engagement with Observers, including the question of dialogue partnership, before the next Session of the Council of Ministers in 2012.

4) More on the observer issue: Linky

India today persuaded other Saarc member-countries to undertake a comprehensive review of the association’s guidelines for granting observer status to other nations.
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A three-year moratorium on admitting new observers ended this year. New Delhi believes the existing nine observers is one too many for the eight-member Saarc. The observers are the US, Australia, China, Iran, Japan, South Korea, Mauritius, Myanmar and the European Union. India’s concerns stem from member-countries, particularly Pakistan, pushing for China to become a more involved partner. New Delhi does not want Saarc to become Beijing’s playground. It also has reservations about Pakistan support for Turkey’s bid to become an observer.

5) Four agreements were signed at Addu city:

a) SAARC Agreement on Rapid Response to Natural Disasters
b) SAARC Agreement on Multilateral Arrangement on Recognition of Conformity Assessment
c) SAARC Agreement on Implementation of Regional Standards
d) SAARC Seed Bank Agreement

As I point out elsewhere, the primacy of an Indian-centred electricity grid that is shared with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and that is supplied by the massive hydro potential of Bhutan, Nepal and surplus power states of the Indian Northeast such as Arunachal Pradesh can go a long way to address the burgeoning demand for electricity in India and its neighborhood. Nuclear power can only go so far, and there is a need to diversify the sources of cheap and sustainable power. That does not make renewable power an alternative model for electricity generation discourse in India. Nor does it condone the criminality of transmission, distribution and pilferage losses.

India and its near-abroad

The Economists' take on India and what it should have done, not-done yada yada, yet for all its agenda and whatnot it does have some truth to it - of course you need to ensure you blood does not boil at the tone of the article.

NO ONE loves a huge neighbour. For all that, India’s relations with the countries that ring it are abysmal. Of the eight with which it shares a land or maritime boundary, only two can be said to be happy with India: tiny Maldives, where India has the only foreign embassy and dispenses much largesse, and Bhutan, which has a policy of being happy about everything. Among its other South Asian neighbours, the world’s biggest democracy is incredible mainly because of its amazing ability to generate wariness and resentment.

Until recently it operated a shoot-to-kill policy towards migrant workers and cattle rustlers along its long border with Bangladesh. Over the years it has meddled madly in Nepal’s internal affairs. In Myanmar India snuggles up to the country’s thuggish dictators, leaving the beleaguered opposition to wonder what happened to India’s championing of democracy. Relations with Sri Lanka are conflicted. It treats China with more respect, but feuds with it about its border

The following two paragraphs seems to be in indirect ode to MMS and SG.

With the notable exception of India’s prime minister, Manmohan Singh, who has heroically persisted in dialogue with Pakistan in the face of provocations and domestic resistance, India’s dealings with its neighbours are mostly driven by arrogance and neglect. It has shared shockingly little of its economic dynamism and new-found prosperity with those around it. Just 5% of South Asia’s trade is within the region.

Too little and too late, the neglect is starting to be replaced by engagement (see article). This week Sonia Gandhi, dynastic leader of India’s ruling Congress Party, visited Bangladesh—a first. And on July 27th India’s foreign minister hosted his Pakistani counterpart, the first such meeting in a year. He promised a “comprehensive, serious and sustained” dialogue.

One thing I do agree is the lack of vision. Maybe before the current economic prosperity India did not have the necessary muscle or economic power to create and nurture a vision. What use is a vision if one does not have the capability to implement it, right? With India's attention to South East Asia, hopefully it has now a better vision and clarity of purpose to take its agenda forward.

Second, dynamic India can hardly soar globally while mired in its own backyard. Promoting regional prosperity is surely the best way to persuade neighbours that its own rise is more of an opportunity than a threat. Yet India lacks any kind of vision. A region-wide energy market using northern neighbours’ hydropower would transform South Asian economies. Vision, too, could go a long way to restoring ties that history has cut asunder, such as those between Karachi and Mumbai, once sister commercial cities but now as good as on different planets; and Kolkata and its huge former hinterland in Bangladesh. Without development and deeper integration, other resentments will be hard to soothe. It falls on the huge unloved neighbour to make the running.

Oh well, Karachi and Mumbai becoming sisters again? It is a dream for the select few. For the realists, it is not going to happen unless Pakistan changes and becomes friendly towards India. Not going to happen anytime soon.

Other updates (October 22, 2010)

1) Nepal: Gurkhas in UK army Linky

Britain has officially dismissed reports that it is planning to discontinue the age-old Gorkha soldiers’ brigade. “The British government has no plan at all to discontinue the Gorkha soldier unit of the British Army,” a British Embassy spokesman told PTI. The remarks came in response to media reports quoting a British Parliament member about the possibility of closure of the Gorkha brigade by the British Army as a result of budget cut downs. The parliamentarian also reasoned that the Gorkhas had been expensive due to equal pay, pensions and rights with regular British soldiers. The statement comes in the wake of the British Government making public new security strategy and strategic defence and security review.

At present there are around 3,500 Gorkha soldiers serving in the British Army. Gorkha brigade is regarded as one of the most trusted units of the British Army and the Gorkhas are regarded as very brave and obedient soldiers. The British Army has very old and cordial relations with the Nepal Army. The British Army had expressed commitment to continue its assistance to Nepal during Nepal Army chief Chhatraman Singh’s official visit to UK at the invitation of British Army chief G Peter Wall.

Here is another development: Linky

Nearly a dozen ‘commanders’ of their People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and lawmakers are on a nine-day visit to China. These include two former deputy chiefs of the PLA, Barsha Man Pun Ananta and Janardan Sharma Prabhakar. Both are sitting Maoist MPs while Sharma is also the former Maoist peace and reconstruction minister. Ananta’s wife Onsari Ghartimagar, also a Maoist lawmaker, is member of the team that includes PLA spokesman Chandra Prakash Khanal Baldev. The Nagarik daily, which broke the news on Thursday, said that though the Maoist party said the 11 were on a personal visit, they had met officials of the Communist Party of China as well as Chinese army officials in Beijing and Shanghai. Both Ananta and Prabhakar are members of the special committee that was formed to facilitate the disbanding of the PLA. With the two Maoist MPs on ‘vacation’, the special committee has not met even though time is running out for Nepal.

Nepal News adds this bit: Linky

UCPN (Maoist) chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal left for Shanghai, China, on Friday on a 4-day official visit to participate in the closing ceremony of Shanghai Expo 2010. Speaking to media-persons at the Tribhuvan International Airport before departing for China on a China Air flight, he said his visit is solely focused on participating in the Shanghai Expo 2010 and that he has no such plans as of now to engage in high-level political parleys with Chinese leaders and government officials. He, however, didn't deny the possibility of such meetings taking place.
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Dahal is accompanied by party's foreign department chief Krishna Bahadur Mahara, and his top aides. Top party leaders including vice vhairmen Mohan Baidya and Dr Baburam Bhattarai and senior leader Ram Bahadur Thapa were at the TIA to bid Dahal farewell. "There will be bilateral talks during the meeting," Maoist politburo member Agni Sapkota, who is also accompanying Dahal during the trip, said without revealing if Dahal will meet Chinese President Hu Jintao.

Dahal is heading to China a day after an eleven-member team of the UCPN (Maoist) party, most of them military commanders, returned from China after a nine-day long "private trip". During their trip, the Maoist commanders are known to have met leaders of the Chinese Communist Party along with those overseeing the military affairs. They went to Beijing via Lhasa.

More unending trips: Linky

Chinese ambassador to Nepal Qiu Gohang called on President Dr Ram Baran Yadav at the latter's office, Shital Niwas, on Thursday. The Chinese ambassador met the President in connection with the latter's China trip later this month.
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Vice President Paramananda Jha has left for Beijing, China on Thursday to attend the Western China Economic Fair in Chengdu of Sichuan province. Vice President Jha is scheduled to deliver a speech during the inaugural of the Fair on Friday, it is learnt. Jha is accompanied by his wife and six officials from his office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Elsewhere, SATP reports:

Leaders of the three major parties – Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-Maoist), Nepali Congress (NC) and Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) - met President Ram Baran Yadav at Shitwal Niwas in Kathmandu on October 19 (today) to discuss the current political stalemate and its possible solution, reports Nepal News. Caretaker Prime Minister and leader of the CPN-UML Madhav Kumar Nepal, UCPN-M Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda, NC president Sushil Koirala and CPN-UML chairman Jhala Nath Khanal went to Shital Niwas (President’s Office) to meet the President.

Meanwhile, the UCPN-M Standing Committee member Dev Gurung said that the caretaker Government does not have the right to bring in the full budget under any circumstances, warning that if it does so then that will be construed as a violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Speaking at an interaction in Kathmandu on October 18, Gurung also said that if the current Government brings in the budget then such a move will be against the "interim constitution".

Separately, Constituent Assembly (CA) Chairman Subas Nemwang said amendment to the constitution and the CA Regulations might be necessary to elect the new Prime Minister (PM) as the current election process has not produced results despite a dozen rounds of voting in the legislature Parliament. Nemwang mentioned this during his meeting with President Ram Baran Yadav at the latter's office, Shital Niwas, on October 15. The meeting dwelled mainly on the successive failure of the PM election and ways to end the stalemate.

DNA adds this: Linky

During the meeting today, Prachanda and Khanal asked Nepali Congress to withdraw 65-year-old Ram Chandra Poudyal from the prime ministerial race as he has failed to garner a majority even after 12 rounds of election in a row. However, Koirala told the leaders and the president that his party will not withdraw his party's candidate until there is a complete understanding on key political issues, including who will be the next prime minister.

Meanwhile, political parties have managed to find a common ground on nine of 11 contentious issues being discussed by the Constituent Assembly Committee on System of Governance. The meeting has resolved nine of the 11 major disputes on drafting a new Constitution, according to minister for law and justice Prem Bahadur Singh. The taskforce of top political leaders, however, are yet agree on the new electoral system and whether to adopt the presidential or the Westminster model. "We will enter into the issues of system of governance and electoral system in the next meeting," Singh said. Maoists are pitching for an executive presidential system and unicameral parliament while Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML and other parties are for an executive prime ministerial system with ceremonial role for the head-of-state.

And as china builds its rail network to Nepal, this is what happens on the other side: Linky

India has urged Nepal to make necessary security arrangement across the survey portion of ongoing Jayanagar-Bijalpura-Bardibas railway link. Survey work of the longest rail link between the two countries has remained halted since mid-October following protests by Maoist cadres. Nepal and India had signed a memorandum of understanding in February on the development of a railway infrastructure through five border points along Nepal-India border. “We want continue the work but due to the continuous obstruction form Maoists we are forced to halt it,” said an Indian Embassy official requesting anonymity.

Last year, a local group had taken away equipment used in the survey, prompting to halt work. “We have hoped to complete the construction of the railway link by 2015, but reoccurring obstructions will dealt a blow to the targeted timeline,” the official added. The 68-km railway service will link Nepal’s Bardibas with India’s Jayanagar, where almost half (34 km) sketch lies on Nepali side. Indian government has prioritised Jayanagar to Bijalpura Gauge Conversion and its extension up to Bardibas.

2) BD: Border haat agreement Linky

India and Bangladesh are set to sign pacts which would clear the decks for setting up of border haats between Meghalaya and the neighbouring country. Led by Commerce Minister of Bangladesh, Faruk Khan, a 21-member delegation arrived here late in the evening. The two countries are slated to sign an agreement to set up border haats, a traditional commodity market. Initially border haats are going to be started at two places along the international border at Sunamganj and Kurigram districts. The trading will be held once a week in both the sides and an individual will not be able to trade above US $50 at the border haats. New Delhi has agreed not impose local tax on trading at the border. The trading would be conducted in local currencies of the two nations. Farm and home made items produced within 10 Km radius of border haats would be traded at the markets to be set up within five Km of the international border. The commodities to be traded in these haats include locally produced agriculture and horticulture products, spices, and minor forest products excluding timber, fresh and dry fish, dairy, fishery and poultry products, cottage industries items, wooden furniture and cane goods, handloom and handicraft items.

The star adds this: Linky

Bangladesh will demand a separate quota for raw cotton from India to ensure the item's adequate supply for the readymade garment sector, the prime foreign exchange earner. The cotton price has reached its all-time high of $1.19 a pound on the international market this month, which troubles Bangladesh and China -- the two countries that depend on cotton imports for their textile industries. Industry insiders pointed out that crop damage by floods in Pakistan, the world's fourth largest cotton producing country, and a ban India has imposed on cotton exports have led to the price spiral.

"We'll demand a separate quota for raw cotton during the bilateral trade talks with India," said Commerce Minister Faruk Khan yesterday, before leaving for New Delhi to lead a 23-member business delegation. Khan said Bangladesh wants to settle the cotton supply problem with India so that the country remains immune to any Indian ban on the item's export. Delhi enforced the ban in April in an effort to ensure supply to its own textile mills. Apparel makers of the neighbouring country also opposed the export of 5.5 million bales of raw cotton pointing to a possible deficit. Ashish Bagrodia, chairman of North Indian Textile Mills Association, has been quoted by Indian newspapers as saying: "Cotton exports beyond 5.5 million bales should not be allowed at any cost, since domestic industry consumption as per projections by the Cotton Advisory Board is going to be more than 26.6 million bales."

Bangladesh is expected to sign four memoranda of understanding on border haats and standard operating procedures of trucks with India. Primarily, two border haats -- one at Kurigram and the other at Sunamganj -- will be operational as soon as possible, Faruk Khan said. Easing business terms for bilateral trade expansion, zero-tariff for 61 Bangladesh products, removing non-tariff barriers to jute export and duty-free export of RMG products to India will be high on agenda.

India has pruned its list of products that cannot be exported to India from 700 to 480. However, Bangladeshi traders have been complaining that the cuts did not help much as garments and footwear, where Bangladesh could easily gain a market in India, were still on the banned list. In 2008, India had allowed import of eight million pieces of Bangladeshi garments but Dhaka points out that Bangladeshi has already exported 70 percent of its allowed quota in five months of this calendar year and the quota needs to be expanded besides withdrawing duty on 61 product lines.

Meanwhile, BD population is ticking at 16.44 crore

The country's present population is 16.44 crore with a 1.4 percent growth rate and 2.25 total fertility rate, according to the United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) annual report - state of world population 2010. This year report styled 'From Conflict and Crisis to Renewal: Generations of Change' said presently average life expectancy of the country's male is 65.4 years while 68.1 years for the female. Only 18 percent of pregnant mothers of the country get skilled birth attendant while giving birth to a child, the report said. Food and Disaster Management Minister Dr Abdur Razzak spoke as the chief guest while UNFPA's Bangladesh country representative Arthur Erken formally released the report at a city hotel here. UNFPA simultaneously published the report at all capital cities around the globe today.

The arms drop case plods along: Linky

Former NSI chief Rezzaqul Haider has told CID that former state minister for home Lutfozzaman Babar assigned him to handover the 10-truck arms to United Liberation Front of Asom (Ulfa) on Sherpur border. Rezzaqul, however, clamed that he couldn't play any role regarding the 10-truck arms smuggling bid as the arms were caught at the Chittagong port, said CID sources. He made the statements yesterday, the third day of his six-day fresh remand. Rezzaqul added he agreed to carryout the assignment just as a government employee and he was not responsible for the smuggling. Rezzaqul was taken to the CID headquarters on Monday as the department was set to interrogate him in the sensational 10-truck arms haul case in Chittagong.

While GoI's intervention sees Lafarge go through: Linky

The traditional council of Nongtrai village in the Indian state of Meghalaya, where Lafarge's limestone mining project is located, has extended no objection to the French cement giant. In a court affidavit filed at the court on October 5, the head of Nongtrai village Durbar BL Lyngdoh said the arrival of Lafarge in their area has opened up employment opportunities along with many other benefits and assistance, according to a press release. He said some vested groups comprising exporters, whose business interests have been affected by the Lafarge project, filed the application to the Supreme Court opposing Lafarge operations.

The affidavit countered the claims of Shella Action Committee, the organisation whose primal objection spawned the whole affair. The affidavit states that the opposing party consists of limestone exporters who used to export limestone to Bangladesh without sharing any benefits with the locals. Lafarge pays a royalty fee which resulted a total amount of 3.15 crore Indian Rupee for the whole village and 1.4 lakh for each household, till December 2009.

3) Burma: Burma has a new flag

Military-ruled Myanmar unveiled a new national flag yesterday, just two weeks before an election that the government calls a major step in a transition to democracy. Government offices replaced the old standard with the new one at exactly 3 p.m. At a fire station in central Yangon, blue-uniformed officers lined up at attention during the replacement ceremony. The new flag has horizontal stripes of yellow, green and red with a big white star in the middle. The announcement of the new flag was made on state television just prior to the ceremonies, which were supposed to take place simultaneously all over the country. "We received the instruction to bring down the old flag and to fly the new flag at 3 p.m.," said an education officer in Pathein township in Irrawaddy Division, who added that shortly before the ceremony his office still had not received its replacement.

The 2008 constitution pushed through by the military called for fresh national symbols, including a new flag whose colors of yellow, green and red would stand for solidarity, peace and tranquility, and courage and decisiveness. Still, the abrupt release of the new flag came as surprise. A yellow, green and red flag was used during the Japanese occupation in 1943-1945, though the emblem in the center then was a dancing peacock. A fighting peacock is a symbol used by the country's democratic opposition, including Suu Kyi's now-disbanded party.

More from here
4) Maldives: Here is Md. Nasheed's interview to Asian Tribune when he came to India for the CWG Linky
And SAAG's take on it: Linky

There are two other issues which Nasheed pointed that need introspection and deep thought in India. First, he called upon India to drag neighbouring countries in the development efforts as other wise it would give rise to “deep resentment” in the region. Given the present trend of India moving higher and further away economically from other countries in the south Asian region and given the trust deficit in some of the countries, it needs to be examined how other countries in the region could be helped to partake in the prosperity and the economic opportunities which India has.

The second issue about India that President Nasheed has rightly pointed out is in describing the Indian Oceans as India’s “soft belly” posing increasingly serious concern. He favoured a framework agreement with India to take care of the security and other issues. The strategic community in India itself has to change its mind set and think of India not as a regional power alone but as an Indian ocean power. If this is done, India’s relationship not only with Sri Lanka but with other Indian ocean countries will also be have to be suitably restructured to meet the growing security concerns of the region.

It is in this connection that Maldives should be fully supported in its dispute with United Kingdom Foreign office over its claim of 160,000 square kilometers of British Indian Ocean territory (BIOT) that impedes on the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone that UK claims extends from the island of Diego Garcia. Also, connected to that is the declaration of UK of the Chagos Archipelago as a BIOT marine reserve extending over an area bigger than France. Chagos is said to have been bought from the Mauritius Government in the year 1965 by the United Kingdom.

5) More on Koro and the ongoing academic dishonesty: Linky

Having discovered the endangered Koro language in Arunachal Pradesh, a team of linguistic researchers that includes a teacher of Ranchi University is now busy preparing “revitalisation kits” to save the vernacular tongue. The kit, containing audio and video records of Koro with phonetics, will be distributed among people in the region, where a small group currently speaks the language. “We are preparing revitalisation kits for the endangered Koro to popularise the language and ensure its propagation,” said Ganesh Murmu, a teacher and researcher in the tribal and regional language department of Ranchi University (RU).

Murmu was among three members of the linguistic team that recently discovered the endangered tribal language hitherto unknown to the world. The other members were David Harrison of Swarthmore University, UK, and G. Anderson of Oregon University, US. Their discovery was announced on October 6 in National Geographic magazine, which financially supported the research. The team had stumbled upon Koro in 2008.

Updates

0) How much of the KNLA (Karen National Liberation Army) violence against Burmese junta instigated by the chinis in response to the Kokang incident? Seeking comments and a breakdown of the inter-ethnic lowdown in Burma.
1) The Union finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, is scheduled to visit Bangladesh on August 7 for two days to discuss the sharing of the Ganga waters and other bilateral issues. Kati, any take on what the other bilateral issues are?

Meanwhile, Linky

PRAN Group, a Bangladeshi food processing and manufacturing firm, will set up agro and food processing plants in Tripura, Orissa and Tamil Nadu, a company official said here today. “Setting up of an agro and food processing joint venture plant with Indian entrepreneurs in Agartala is now in an advanced stage,” said Ahsan Khan Chowdhury, deputy managing director of the PRAN Group of companies.
“PRAN (Programme for Rural Advancement Nationally), which is the first Bangladesh company to invest in India, has also sought approval from Bangladesh Bank to invest in India,” he told reporters here. The Tripura Government has allotted an acre of land to the group at Bodhjung Nagar industrial zone in western Tripura to set up the proposed unit for which a new company, PRAN Beverage India Private limited, was floated recently with Indian entrepreneurs. “Though India had lifted its restrictions for Bangladeshi and Pakistani investors and businessmen to invest in India two years back, Dhaka is yet to withdraw restrictions to invest abroad by the Bangladeshi industrialists,” said Chowdhury.

2) BD fencing issues: Linky

Meanwhile, the Central Government has no plans to declare identified illegal migrants in Assam as stateless citizens, Union Minister of State for Home Affairs M Ramachandran said in a Rajya Sabha reply. In a written reply to a question by Kumar Deepak Das, the Minister added that declared illegal migrants are being deported to their countries. According to report of the Foreigners Tribunal set up in Assam, 2242 persons of pre-1971 stream have been declared as illegal migrants and during the 2007-2010, 5175 persons were so declared. At least 441 deported illegal migrants had re-infiltrated and were detected and deported to their country, he informed.

During 2008, some 5.41 lakh Bangladeshi nations entered the country on valid documents of which 31,229 overstayed. The same year 12,625 Bangladeshi nationals were deported, the Minister added. The highest number of deportations took place in 2006, when 13,692 illegal migrants were deported. In 2006, 24,497 Bangladeshi nationals over stayed, the next year 25,712 nationals of Bangladesh overstayed. The same year 12135 illegal migrants were deported to Bangladesh, it was reported by the Minister.

Of the 4096.70 Km India-Bangladesh borders, 3436 Km is proposed to be fenced. About 2706 km has been fenced so far, Ramachandran said in a separate reply.

No fencing work has been taken up in the India-Myanmar border. These are very, very difficult terrains and difficult conditions. These borders are porous, Chidambaram said.

3) Adani coal buy in Oz Linky

Linc Energy Ltd. said Tuesday it sold its Galilee thermal-coal property in Queensland state to India's Adani Enterprises Ltd. for 500 million Australian dollars (US$456 million) plus royalties, in the biggest acquisition by India of an Australian asset, as the fast-growing nation tries to plug gaps in its energy supply.
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The breakthrough ends years of frustration for Brisbane-based Linc after two previous attempts to sell coal properties in Queensland to Chinese entities, including Galilee, collapsed at an advanced stage of negotiations.
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As one of the world's fastest-growing economies, India currently has to import coal because it doesn't produce enough to meet increasing demand. According to government data, India is estimated to face a coal shortage of 52 million tons this fiscal year, and power utilities have been asked to import 35 million tons of the fuel. Linc said the Galilee property could support a development producing 60 million tons of coal each year. Imported coal will help India meet its aims to nearly quadruple the annual addition to power generation capacity over the next few years to 13,000 megawatts each year from around 3,500 MW now, to power rural households and prevent blackouts.

According to data by Dealogic, the next biggest Indian corporate investment in Australia is Tata Steel Ltd.'s A$96 million purchase of a stake in Mozambique-focused Australian coal miner Riversdale Mining Ltd. The biggest single Indian investment in Australia, however, remains PetroNet LNG Ltd.'s agreement last year to buy liquefied natural gas from Exxon Mobil Corp. for 20 years from the massive Chevron Corp.-operated Gorgon project in Western Australia.

Adani said it has obtained approval for the Linc deal from Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board and has also been awarded "preferred proponent status" by relevant authorities to develop a 30 million to 60 million-ton-a-year coal terminal near the existing Hay Point and Dalrymple Bay terminals at the port town of Mackay. Speculation that Linc would seal a deal with Adani firmed in recent weeks after Bond confirmed Linc was talking to the Indian group, which raised US$850 million through a late July share issue.

The deal is the latest in a flurry of corporate activity in Australia's coal sector, following last year's Chinese takeover of Felix Resources Ltd. and this month's offer by Thai miner Banpu PCL for Centennial Coal Co.

The acquisition of the coal assets has many benefits for Adani. The deal would help the company, which already has coal mines in Indonesia, work towards significantly increasing its power-generation capacity. Adani Power, in which Adani Enterprises has a stake of about 70%, has four thermal power plants under various stages of development and planning with a combined planned capacity of 9,900 megawatts.

4) Time for mid-term elections in Maldives? Linky

Having realised that it is getting near impossible to conduct the affairs of the government in view of various restrictions in the present Constitution, President Nasheed is veering round to the view that a mid term election will be necessary to amend some articles of the constitution.
...
Two days earlier, on the day Abdulla Yaameen, the opposition leader was released, there was a very valuable advice in the press and this needs to be quoted. “There is no alternative to talks as an immediate measure on strengthening institutions of horizontal accountability such as Anti corruption commission, the Audit Office and the Judiciary for the long haul. The comment ended with the words “Get prepared for painful compromises in the short term.” This is the dilemma President Nasheed is facing. He is a young President of integrity and in a hurry. At the same time he has to sustain and get the young democracy take deep roots to ensure that authoritarianism never returns. Will he be able to go for compromises? This is what he was trying in the last few days in getting his party meet the leaders of opposition in three rounds of talks.
...
The Special Adviser to President Nasheed, Zaki is said to be in India, perhaps to discuss the current political impasse.

5) NRC update Linky

The pilot project on NRC update began after long five years of the May 5, 2005 tripartite talks’ decision to update the NRC. Many are apprehensive that now the State Government is out to stall the NRC update work on the pretext of anomalies in the NRC form as the ruling party is afraid of losing ‘‘minority’’ votes in the Assembly election slated for next year. Assam politics has been taking a dramatic turn after the July 21 Barpeta incident. The Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF has been supporting the AAMSU from the very beginning. NRC update has been a long-standing demand of the AASU. In accordance with the decision taken on the tripartite talks on April 22 this year, work of the pilot projects on NRC update began on June 1 in Barpeta and Chhaygaon revenue circles. There was no protest from any quarters. However, the AAMSU discovered anomalies in the NRC update process in Barpeta.

6) Nepal Mayhem. wow. Linky

Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda' needs the support of the United Democratic Madhesi Front, constituting four Tarai-based parties, to get to 301 — the required simple majority mark. India had used its influence to convince the front to remain neutral in the last round of voting, in line with Delhi's preference to keep the Maoists out of power. However, 11 MPs of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum crossed the floor to support Prachanda. The Maoists are banking on either the front supporting them, or more Madhesi MPs defying the party whip in the next round.
...
The decision to send Mr. Saran as special envoy has triggered multiple, and conflicting rumours, in Kathmandu political circles. Some suggested he would try to stop the Madhesi front from going over to the Maoists; others argued that India could well do a deal with Prachanda and encourage the Madhesi parties to vote for him.

Another rumour doing the rounds is:

Shyam Saran may have come to Nepal to champion the case of Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai and in all likelihood may appeal Prachanda to take back his nomination and forward Bhattarai’s name for the post of the Nepal PM in the next round of election.

7) Visa on arrival cancelled Linky

Malaysia is planning to introduce a Visa Facilitation System (VFS) for tourists from India and China. This follows a decision to revoke the Visa on Arrival (VOA) scheme for visitors to Malaysia from several countries. The VOA scheme was discontinued in respect of Indian nationals in 2008. The reason cited by the authorities, including Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak, was that thousands among those who arrived from India under the VOA scheme later went “missing.” Chennai was identified as the embarkation point.

Updates

1) Integration of the India-BD-Bhutan-Nepal power grids is one of those best-kept secret of Ind-BD relations, a quid pro quo if there is on transit, tariffs and telecom. Linky

Energy-starved Bangladesh has inked a landmark 35-year power transmission deal with India for the import of 250 megawatt electricity. The import of power is expected to start by late 2012. The state-run Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) yesterday signed the deal with the Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (PGCIL) at a ceremony in Dhaka. The agreement keeps the provision for Bangladesh to export power to India in the future while PGCIL was tasked to construct, own, operate and maintain a 400-KV double-circuit line to exchange 500-MW power between the two neighbouring countries soon after the system is launched.

On J-e-I happenings: Linky

A Bangladesh war crimes tribunal today issued arrest warrants against four detained leaders of the country’s largest Islamic party for alleged genocide during the 1971 liberation struggle that left millions dead during a bloody nine-month fight for independence.
...
The tribunal office, in the Old High Court complex in capital Dhaka, wore a sombre look as the panel issued the warrants against Jamaat chief Matiur Rahman Nizami, secretary-general Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujahid, and assistant secretaries-general Mohammed Kamaruzzaman and Abdul Quader Molla. Nizami and Mujahid had allegedly led the Al-Badr force, a Jamaat militia believed to have slaughtered a number of Bengali intellectuals, including university professors, just before the December 16, 1971, surrender of Pakistani troops. Molla, according to a 1990 report of the People’s Enquiry Commission, was known as “butcher” in the Dhaka suburb of Mirpur in 1971.

All four were detained last month on charges ranging from obstructing police to sedition. The warrants would ensure they don’t go scot-free after getting bail for these offences, sources said. The order came a day after the prosecution submitted a petition to the tribunal to keep the detained Jamaat leaders in confinement “in the interest of smooth investigation”. “This is a red letter day... the court order has reflected the aspirations of the people. It is a matter of pride for the Bengali nation,” chief of the prosecution team Golam Arif Tipu said after the hearing.

“Evidence might be destroyed if they stay free which might hinder investigations. The arrest warrants need to be issued to assist investigations. They were active in committing crimes, including killings, genocide, looting, rape, arson as the collaborators of the occupation army at different places of Bangladesh during the liberation war.” According to official figures, about 3 million people were killed during the war, some 2,00,000 women were raped and millions were forced to flee their homes.

Elsewhere, Linky

Cattle smuggling to Bangladesh always remains a major cause of concern, but what is more disturbing is that items distributed through the Public Distribution System (PDS) at subsidized rates to poor families as well as seeds distributed free of cost to the farmers are also being smuggled out to the neighbouring country. Highly placed security sources told The Assam Tribune that a number of PDS items, particularly blue kerosene and sugar are being smuggled out to Bangladesh, which is a major cause of concern. Sources said that there should be a proper survey of the people living in the char areas located near the international border and ration cards should be issued accordingly so that the allocation of food items is fully need-based. Only the Border Security Force (BSF) cannot stop smuggling of PDS items as it is done in small quantities and not in bulk and there is need for coordination among the district administration, police and the BSF to check the menace.
...
Sources said that to improve the situation, the work of fencing the international border should be expedited and there should be a second line of defence behind the BSF all along the international border. More police stations can be set up on the banks of the river Brahmaputra so that the riverine border is guarded properly, while security vigil on the chars needs to be intensified immediately, sources said. It may be mentioned here that the BSF has also been stressing the need for a second line of defence to improve border management and the issue has been raised by the senior officers of the border guarding force on different occasions at various levels.

2) A change in strategy on tackling maoists?! Linky

The joint forces today gunned down six Maoists, including a top leader and a woman, in an operation reflecting a nascent strategy shift: the troops could increasingly be carrying out risky night operations for bigger success against the rebels.

More on Sidhu Soren from Linky

Sidhu Soren, the secretary of the People’s Committee Against Police Atrocities, was third-time unlucky. Last year, police had zeroed in at least twice on the commander-in-chief of the Gana Militia, who had terrorised CPM supporters and dominated around 150 sqkm of the “Maoist territory” in West Midnapore and adjoining Bankura. However, on both occasions, Soren had managed to elude the police. In June last year, the joint forces had cornered Soren, whose real name was Bhuta Baskey, and his aides after they received information that the rebels were hiding in a forest in Kadashole, 15km from Lalgarh. The forces had killed two of Soren’s aides but the rebel leader escaped unhurt. A few days later, the police cordoned off a village deep inside Pingboni forest where Soren was camping but he again escaped. “But this time, we managed to shoot him dead in the forests of Metala,” a police officer said. “This is a big setback for the Maoists.”

Elsewhere, a close miss on getting Kundan Pahan Linky

Police today claimed to have shot dead two rebels — part of a 45-member squad led by CPI(Maoist) zonal commander Kundan Pahan — in an overnight operation in Arki, Khunti. While Pahan gave some 2,000 police and paramilitary personnel the slip, IG (operations) S.N. Pradhan said an eight-hour gun battle, which began at 8am on Sunday, destroyed a Maoist camp between Robo and Korba hills, about 100km from the capital, and inflicted twin casualties on the rebels.
...
Senior police officers, however, remained tightlipped on how Pahan escaped the net. A permanent resident of Barigarha in Arki, the Maoist commander carries a reward of Rs 5 lakh on his head. He had joined the Naxalite movement after a land dispute with his uncle in 2000. Snatching rifles from policemen at Hembrom Bazar earned him the rank of an area commander soon. Later, Pahan killed a deputy superintendent of police to get promoted as sub-zonal commander. Sometime ago, he cleaned out Rs 5.07 crore cash and 1.5kg gold belonging to ICICI Bank’s Tamar branch to become CPI(Maoist)’s zonal commander.

Meanwhile from SATP

Times of India reports that Nagpur appears to be emerging as a new hub for the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoists) with security agencies suspecting that it is being used for transit, treatment and regrouping. With its proximity to Naxalite [Left Wing Extremists] hotbeds like Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand, sources also indicated that Nagpur was being used not just as a transit point but also for medical treatment. As per sources in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), there are credible bits of information available to suggest that Naxalites from Naxal-affected States like Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand in particular, are increasingly using Nagpur as a transit point.

A sorry state of affairs on the Central Forces Linky

The highest attrition has been reported by Central Reserve Police Force with 3,522 personnel quiting their job, Minister of State for Home Affairs Ajay Maken told Lok Sabha in a written reply on Tuesday. It was followed by Border Security Force with 3,000 and Central Industrial Security Force with 1,417 personnel leaving the forces. In total, the attrition rate up to June 30 this year in the six paramilitary forces was 9,036. "The main reasons for attrition are superannuation, retirement, removal from service on account of disciplinary proceedings, death or disability, resignation and voluntary retirement. They also include "family, personal or domestic problems, separation from family for long durations, difficult duties in remote or hard areas, sickness, mental depression, psychiatric and emotional cases," Maken said. Other reasons cited by him were fear of punishment for wrong doings, attractive alternative employment and reduction of qualifying service for full pension after the sixth Central Pay Commission.

Salwa Judum Linky

"If I have indulged in violence, why is it that the Naxals or their people have not filed a single FIR (First Information Report with the police) against me? asks Mahendra Karma, the tribal Congress leader whose movement has been widely described as a State-supported vigilante group.
...
The Naxalites have opened two fronts -- the gun-front and the public-front. The public-front is exemplified with demonstrations, bandhs etc, here they have spread their message so widely that on the national and international level it has divided people on this issue. The pro-Naxalites are also part of their public-front. The Naxals try and cover all their weaknesses, violence and the excesses of their gun-front through this public-front. Whose moral responsibility is it to stop the public-front of the Naxals? This responsibility rests with us leaders. But we are not in the field, we have given the Naxals a walkover. If they have been successful in reaching thus far, it is because of us netas (politicians). The answer to their guns is already being given by the security forces, but who should have countered their ideology? That moral responsibility was ours. How many people are countering them politically?
...
Q. But all these charges can't be false.
A. So why haven't they -- the Naxals or their sympathisers or the human rights commission -- filed any FIR against me? I was waiting, why didn't they? I don't understand -- does it ever happen that in a movement the leader goes scot free and the rank and file gets caught? In the history of the world has there ever been a movement like this (the Salwa Judum) against political terrorism? Naxalism is political terrorism. India is emerging as a superpower and anti-democratic forces want to destablise the government, so they also get international support from such forces. Naxals are getting direct or indirect support. If this problem is not solved, then this country and its people will have to pay no less a price than what they paid for freedom. I am a democrat and live in a democratic system. If they are against our system, then it is a rebellion and should be crushed like one. The biggest drawback of our democracy is that democrats don't have a commitment to their democracy.
...
Q. One of the reasons for tribal resentment is the government's failure to bring about development, infrastructure and progress.
A. Naxals are the biggest enemies of development. From 1947 whatever infrastructure, development, was made was destroyed by them. Their theory is to keep the tribals away from progress. If they want a revolution in these areas they have to keep progress away from the tribals. This is their hidden theory and we grieve that the Adivasi is not seeing any progress, that they are being displaced. Today wherever there are natural resources, there is a jungle, where there is a jungle, there are tribals. Exploration (for mineral resources) is being done for decades, but based on that when we talk of any industry, why do we talk about tribal exploitation only then? If that is so, why don't you stop the effects of those resources? What is buried in the ground for millenia can remain buried. It's not as if you don't exploit it, it will suffer any loss. You want the tribals to remain like that. What about their children? You have to listen to their voices. These people who support the Naxals don't want the Adivasis to get educated and progress. There is no concept of an educated Adivasi, we have no thinking about them. We have to think about them. It is unfortunate that they don't feature on our radar.

3) Assam NRC update Linky

Dispur today transferred Barpeta superintendent of police D. Mukherjee as commandant of 1st Assam Police Battalion giving in to demand for his removal in the wake of the police firing in Barpeta, in which five were killed on July 21. Shiv Prasad Ganjawalla will replace Mukherjee. The All Assam Minority Students’ Union had demanded the immediate removal of the SP and the deputy commissioner blaming them for the incident. Police had opened fire after alleged AAMSU supporters went on a rampage damaging vehicles, pelting stones at security forces in front of the DC’s office.
...
Mukherjee’s transfer, however, has not gone down well with the police here with several senior officials saying it had become a routine affair to mete out such “punishment” under pressure. “This is nothing more than appeasement,” a senior police official said. “What do they (the government) expect us to do, sit around and get hit by stones and other assorted missiles that protesters freely use! What about those people whose vehicles were damaged, leave alone the injuries caused to the police personnel,” the official said.

From SATP, ULFA vs. Bangladeshis, yawn.

Sentinel reports that pro-talks ULFA ‘chairman’ Mrinal Hazarika has sought legal action against the All Assam Minority Students' Union (AAMSU) leaders involved in the Barpeta incident and said that the Bangladeshi issue has assumed serious proportions in Assam only because of the Jamiat. Reacting to statement issued to a section of the media by leaders of the AAMSU, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Jamiat that the ULFA leaders should be called Bangladeshis as they had stayed in Bangladesh for long, Hazarika said, “When war breaks out between two parties, one of them being a government, the party opposed to the government normally seeks the help of neighbouring countries. ULFA leaders did take refuge in Bangladesh but many of the ULFA men were active in Assam itself.”

On other ULFA matters, Linky

Police have issued an alert to thwart any attempt by Ulfa to raise black flags on the outfit’s martyrs’ day tomorrow. The banned outfit observes martyrs’ day against the killing of five cadres in Darrang district in 1991. “We have information that the cadres will try to hoist black flags to prove that the outfit is still a force to reckon with. We have alerted all the police stations to thwart any such attempt,” a senior police officer said.
...
Police sources said Ulfa has hired a few persons, like it did during the “sainik divas” to hoist the outfit’s flag tomorrow. “Most of the flags the outfit had hoisted during the sainik divas were hoisted by hired persons,” the official said. He said the Ulfa commander-in-chief Paresh Barua is desperate to show the outfit’s strength when the Centre is pushing for talks with the jailed leaders.

4) NSCN (K) and China link from SATP

Hindustan Times reports that a National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) leader, Kughalu Mulatonu, said the Chinese found their way to militant camps in Sagaing division of Myanmar via New Delhi. The NSCN-K refers Sagaing division of Myanmar as Eastern Nagaland. The revelation came two months after the arrest of a Chinese spy, Guang Liang, near Kibithu in Arunachal Pradesh. The person claimed that he was from Henan province of central China. This division adjoining Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland is dominated by at least six Naga tribes and is easier to access from India. Mulatonu said from a camp near Dimapur in Nagaland: “Yes, they (the Chinese) openly and legally come to India via Delhi and meet us.” The Khaplang faction, led by S.S. Khaplang, a Myanmar-based Hemi Naga, retains control over most of the 30 Northeast militant camps in Sagaing division. “The government of India gets to know of such meetings well before they are held. The last of such meetings was in 2009,” Mulatonu said. He, however, declined to divulge what usually gets discussed at these meetings. Security agencies said the Chinese often get in touch with NSCN-K leaders, its rival National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and other Northeast militant groups camped in Sagaing Division to strike deals for small arms. “In all probability, the Chinese people visit the rebel camps to strike deals for small arms,” a Nagaland-based intelligence officer said on condition of anonymity.

5) Maldives Linky

The seeds of the present impasse go back to the 2009 parliamentary election when the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) led by Maumoon Abdul Gayoom managed to get a simple majority in parliament with the help of the People’s Alliance (PA) and some independents. President Nasheed’s Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has 28 MPs and the support of four independent MPs in the 77-member Parliament. Under the Maldives' system of government, the president handpicks his cabinet and each nomination must be approved by parliament. Parliament also has the power to remove a minister through a no-confidence vote. Though DRP gained control of the legislature it fell short of a two-thirds majority that it would need to impeach the president. At the same time, Nasheed cannot dismiss the assembly until it completes its full five-year term. The outcome has been a political deadlock.

Some of the opposition parties have not been happy with the education minister for his liberal views. To remove him from his post, the opposition-controlled parliament planned to bring a no-confidence motion against him. The cabinet however pre-empted the move by resigning en masse on 29 June. This decision also triggered a political crisis and left the country without any government for two weeks. The government claimed that opposition MPs were not allowing the executive to function properly and making it impossible for ministers to discharge their constitutional duties. On the same day police arrested three key opposition MPs for allegedly offering cash to bribe parliamentarians to vote against the government. This move worsened the crisis. Some key members of the opposition were also creating trouble for the government because they were not happy with its decision to privatize Male airport. These MPs, who are actually business tycoons, benefitted from the earlier system. Hasan Sayeed, leader of another opposition party Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP) was allegedly receiving huge legal fees from two MPs, Yameen and Gasim. Hence, his party was also opposing the government’s decision to privatize Male airport.

President Nasheed has attributed the ongoing political crisis to the constitution adopted on August 7, 2008, which is based on a presidential system of governance though it has also vested wider powers with Parliament, aimed at maintaining tenecessary checks and balances. This system becomes problematic in case parliament is controlled by the opposition as is the case in Maldives. It allows the opposition to obstruct the core functions of the executive, such as raising taxes and providing subsidies. Nasheed is of the view that only amending the constitution would bring political stability. He is also willing to change the political system into a parliamentary system and seek immediate re-election. Nasheed feels some laws passed in Parliament are making it difficult for him to play the role of the executive according to the constitution. He wants this to be rectified.

To defuse the crisis in Maldives, the international community has offered mediation. US Ambassador Patricia Butenis and Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa have mediated talks between the government and opposition parties. But the opposition leaders of Maldives feel that their mediation has already failed. The Commonwealth and the Inter Parliamentary Union (IPU) too have offered to mediate. President Nasheed believes that no amount of foreign mediation can solve the country’s internal political crisis. He has suggested the option of a Maldivian Repporteur acceptable to all parties, to take up the role of a peace envoy. This Maldivian Repporteur could be even a senior civil servant of Maldives.

Meanwhile, the government and opposition in Maldives have started a dialogue to ease tension on the advice of United States Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Robert Blake. Blake also felt that the current political unrest in the country could only be solved through dialogue and compromise. To facilitate talks, Nasheed has released opposition leader Yameen. In an attempt to reach out to the opposition, Nasheed has congratulated the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party on the fifth anniversary of its formation. He also expressed confidence that the DRP will cooperate with the government in its efforts to find an amicable solution to the current political impasse. Unfortunately, not everyone in Maldives is looking for a solution to the political crisis. A section of the opposition Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) MPs have declared that they will forward a no-confidence motion against President Nasheed to parliament for violating the constitution. Nasheed also seems to be prepared for all outcomes. The government is considering a referendum to decide on a system of governance, if negotiations fail. The government thinks that there is a need to define clear cut boundaries on the system of the governance.

Political instability in Maldives is not in the interest of India. The Indian government should encourage Maldivian-led mediation to defuse the political crisis in the Indian Ocean archipelago. Over the years, religious extremists have been gaining ground in Maldives. A political vacuum could be used by them to harm Maldivian democracy. Nasheed's popularity at home has waned, as he struggles to deliver the political and economic reforms he had promised, in the face of parliamentary resistance. More importantly, the peaceful transition to multi-party democracy that was taking place under President Nasheed has come under a cloud as a result of the present political crisis in Maldives.

Confusion in Maldives (July 1, 2010)

Unbeknownst to much of India, things have come to a real pass in Maldives.
[quote]
The Maldives cabinet resigned en masse on Tuesday amid growing frustration over the parliamentarians holding them at ransom and for not being able to perform their duties, reports say. The cabinet protested the behaviour of opposition MPs who they said were “hijacking” the powers of the executive and making it impossible for the cabinet Ministers to discharge their constitutional duties and deliver the government’s election manifesto.

The tip of the iceberg points to two parliament members, Qasim Ibrahim Burumaa (MP for Maamigili and leader of the Jumhooree Party) and Abdulla Yameen (MP for Mulaku and leader of the People's Alliance), who are reportedly in custody, being interrogated over the ‘cash-for-votes’ scam. Latest reports say that both Qasim and Yameen are to be summoned to the criminal court late night, according to their lawyer.

Although there is no official stand on the reason for the two parliamentarians being investigated, sources within the government have indicated that the matter is to do with ‘cash-for-votes’, in other words, parliament members taking bribes in return for votes against bills submitted by the government as well as supporting legislation that is widely believed to be undermining the executive authority of the country. The President, Md. Nasheed and the Vice President have not resigned from office.

The Maldives has a Presidential system of government, with a separation of powers between the executive, the legislative and the judiciary, guaranteed under a Constitution that was enacted in 2008. The executive (The President and Vice President) and the legislature (the Majlis or the Parliament) in the Maldives are elected directly by the people at two separate polls. President Nasheed and Vice President Waheed were elected in October 2008. Nasheed's term ends in October 2013 while the parliament can be in office until May 2014.

The Majlis, or parliament, has 77 directly elected members. The new parliament was sworn into office in May 2009. The opposition Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party, which is aligned to the People’s Alliance party, has 34 seats in the Majlis and the support of a number of independent MPs. Nasheed’s Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has 28 MPs and the support of four independent MPs.
[/quote]
So, the DRP has the control of the Majlis whereas the MDP has control of the Presidency and Vice-Presidency. The popular mandate in 2008 was that people wanted M.A.Gayoom ousted, but not the DRP. The very fact that MDP won so many seats was then claimed to be an indication of the anti-incumbency vote. Nevertheless, fact remains that the opposition still controls the Majlis.

More from elsewhere,
[quote]
Speaking after the press conference, cabinet members said that the People’s Majlis, in which opposition parties hold a small majority of seats, was becoming increasingly “dictatorial,” issuing numerous edicts to prevent ministers from carrying out their duties. “Every passing week, there is another attempt by opposition MPs to wrestle more control from the executive. They are making the country ungovernable,” said Attorney General Husnu Suood.

“Opposition MPs are obstructing the business of government. They have awarded themselves powers to appoint members to independent institutions, when this is clearly a prerogative of the President. They have declared that the government cannot raise any loans from abroad or rent any government or state asset without their say-so. And they are threatening Ministers with no confidence motions on spurious grounds,” said Finance Minister Ali Hashim.

“The opposition MPs are operating a ‘scorched Earth’ policy, trying to stop the government from doing any work to help the people. We have told the President that we cannot continue to work like this,” stated Foreign Minister Dr Ahmed Shaheed.
[/quote]

Maldivian political stalemate continues
Linky
From the above report, the most important facts, parsed right:
[quote]
Abdullah Yameen Abdul Gayoom is the half-brother of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (the former and long-term President of Maldives who was ousted in the 2008 election). Qasim Ibrahim is probably the richest individual businessman in Maldives. While there was no report of any violence, Male for one remained deeply polarized between the government and its opponents. Former President M. A. Gayoom continues to have support among the elite and business class in the city of around 1.2 lakh residents.
[/quote]
The opposition demand:
[quote]
The opposition had planned to bring a no-confidence motion against the education minister on Wednesday, but the cabinet resignation pre-empted the move. "The only solution is for President Nasheed to resign and go for fresh elections to see how popular his government is," Umar Naseer, deputy leader of the main opposition Dhivehi Raithunge Party (DRP), told Associated Press.
[/quote]
So this is a wrangling for power. M.A.Gayoom has smelt blood and being out of power for 2 years has only increased his thirst for power.

What is the cited reason for the opposition? Privatization. An example of the privatization process, underway in Maldives, is below:
[quote]
GMR Infrastructure gains after winning Maldives airport bid

GMR-group Bangalore-based GMR Infrastructure Ltd said its consortium with Malaysia Airports Holdings Berhad (MAHB) won the bid to build, operate, modernise and expand the Male International Airport (MIA) in Maldives. No financial details were provided. MIA includes the sea-plane port. The mandate is for the next 25 years. The Maldives government had invited three parties, namely, Aeroport De Paris, France-TAV, Turkey consortium; Zurich Airport-GVK consortium and the GMR-MAHB consortium to take part in the bid process.

On Friday, GMR Infrastructure shares ended 1.5% up at Rs57.70 at 9:42 IST, on the Bombay Stock Exchange after the consortium of the company won the bid to build, operate, modernise and expand Male' International Airport. The company did not disclose the size of the bid but media reports suggested total capital expenditure for the airport is pegged at 500 million US dollars. According to stock market reports, on consolidated basis, GMR Infrastructure's net profit rose 37.2% to 158.66 million dollars on 15.3% decline in net sales of 2.4 billion US$ in Q4 March 2010 over Q4 March 2009.

GMR along with Malaysian airport had got the expansion project of building and expanding the Male International Airport in Maldives. The GMR group which is nearing completion in building the 8th largest airport terminal in the world in Delhi which has a floor space 5.4 million sq ft pipped two strong contenders from India. One was the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani group with Mexico Airports Aeropuertos and the other the GVK- Lughafen Zurich AG combine.

The new government of Maldives, which took office in Novermber 2008 after 30 years of dictatorship, had invited bids to build a new terminal at the Male’ International Airport that would have a capacity of handling 5 million passengers in one year with bays to room 12 aircrafts. The project has to be completed by 2014 and would demand operation, maintenance, expansion, rehabilitation and modernization of the existing airport. The GMR group, besides the Delhi Airport modernization and expansion had built the new Hyderabad airport. It runs the international airport of Istanbul; Sabiha Gokcen . It also runs the Malaysian Airports Holding Berhad.
[/quote]
But that is hardly likely to be the issue. Look at this report from June 12, 2010.

Going After Government Looters
Linky
[quote]
The government of the Maldives wants its money back — $400 million to be precise. That is the amount that it estimates was looted by its former president, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, and his associates.

A report from the Maldives’ national auditor released in 2009 reads like a guidebook on self-enrichment. The president’s spending was “out of control,” it said, as Mr. Gayoom used his power to live a lavish lifestyle and extend largesse to those around him. An estimated $9.5 million was spent buying and delivering a luxury yacht from Germany for the president; $17 million was spent on renovations of the presidential palace and family houses. Mr. Gayoom built a saltwater swimming pool, a badminton court and a gymnasium, and he bought 11 speed boats and at least 55 cars — including the country’s only Mercedes-Benz, the audit said.

And the list goes on, from Loro Piana suits and trousers to watches and hefty bills for medical services in Singapore for “important people” and their families. There was a $70,000 trip to Dubai by the first lady in 2007, a $20,000 bill for a member of the family of the former president to stay a week at the Grand Hyatt in Singapore. On one occasion, diapers were sent to the islands by airfreight from Britain for Mr. Gayoom’s grandson. Even allocations made to Mr. Gayoom’s office for welfare distribution were spent on the president’s family and their friends, senior government staff members and their friends and members of Parliament, according to the report.

Mr. Gayoom could not be reached for comment. In September, his office denied accusations of corruption and embezzlement made by government commissions and auditors. His financial affairs are still being investigated.

The Maldives government is beginning the paper chase, but it lacks resources to unravel a complex trail that it assumes runs through the British Channel Islands, Singapore and Malaysia. Help is coming, notably from the Stolen Asset Recovery Initiative, or StAR, run by the World Bank and the United Nations. The program estimates conservatively that $20 billion to $40 billion is stolen annually from developing countries through bribery, misappropriation and corruption. That figure represents about 15 percent to 30 percent of aid to the developing world.

While there has been progress in the form of restitution of funds looted from poor countries, some experts fear that the issue may be sliding lower on the international agenda as the financial crisis rolls on. During the past 16 years, $5 billion has been recovered, according to the program. Repatriating more could help alleviate poverty in some countries: The World Bank says that every $100 million returned could finance the linking of 250,000 homes to clean water supplies each year or treatment for more than 600,000 people with H.I.V. and AIDS. “People can make a huge profit from corruption and get away with it,” Jeffrey T. Radebe, the South African minister of justice, said in the past week in Paris. “We can do more to ensure that corruption doesn’t pay — and seize assets.”

StAR sets up teams of experts and advises on the legislation needed to track and repatriate funds. It is working with 22 countries in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia, including Guatemala, Haiti, Indonesia and Paraguay. Some governments are also undertaking their own initiatives. Switzerland says it has repatriated 1.7 billion francs, or $1.5 billion, in stolen assets to developing countries. That includes about $684 million looted by Ferdinand E. Marcos, the former dictator of the Philippines, and $700 million from Sani Abacha, the ex-leader of Nigeria. More than $174 million taken by Vladimiro Montesinos, the former head of Peruvian intelligenceand adviser to ex-President Alberto Fujimori, has been returned from a variety of jurisdictions.

The Swiss government has used a constitutional provision to block stolen funds. It hopes that an act directly defining the methods of freezing, confiscating and restoring stolen assets will take effect early next year, helping the process. There has also been an increase in investigations, settlements and convictions in the United States under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. In 2008, the Department of Justice concluded 16 enforcement actions against individuals and companies under the act, a record since its passage in 1977.

In Britain, the government has allocated funds from its development budget to finance Metropolitan Police investigations of foreign corruption and asset recovery. “We’ve come a long way,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a World Bank managing director and former Nigerian finance minister. “But I would not be complacent.”
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In the Maldives, the government wants its money back to help offset the decline in tourism, which has been hit by the global downturn, and to plug a budget deficit estimated last year at 34 percent of G.D.P. “What we are asking the World Bank is, help us get this back,” Mr. Hashim said. “Then we won’t need to have that much” foreign aid, he said.
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So at the end of the day, this may be M.A.Gayoom pre-empting an anti-corruption drive by Anni Nasheed. Now that India enjoys very good relationship with either side, it may have to steer both sides into running the country. While Anni Nasheed's anti-corruption drive is laudable, it is hardly realpolitik given that he has no majority in the Majlis. Like SHW in 1996, he may have to put up with the fact that he cant do much on this direction. That may cool down M.A.Gayoom & co. Given that Maldives has become increasingly a target for al qaeda-types, especially on the uninhabited atolls, and Anni Nasheed's showmanship on global warming, it is better to have good governance and hope to wrest control of the Majlis in the next election than wreck it in popular bravado. It is not clear if the man on the street will re-elect Anni Nasheed, if an election is held now. That probably explains why the opposition is asking for a re-election. Better safe than sorry. But then Anni Nasheed is British educated and from the youngistan brigade of Maldives. More than the "change-man", Anni Nasheed has shown an impressive disdain for status quo in Maldives. He may want to go down in flames rather than sticking around and fixing things in the long run. If that is the case, another nuisance for the MEA babus, given that Nepal is another basketcase with a melee in the tumbler.