Updates

1) Nepal (from SATP): Wow!! is all I can say.

The Central Committee (CC) meeting of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) which was held on August 25 in Kathmandu witnessed a division among the leadership opinions, reports Kantipuronline. According to sources, the vice-chairman of UCPN-M Baburam Bhattarai and senior leader Mohan Baidya presented a “counter report” against the political document presented by Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda.

Meanwhile, the Nepal Army (NA) said it will boycott the meeting of Joint Monitoring Coordination Committee (JMCC) scheduled for on August 26. “We have taken this decision after the United Nations (UN) rejected our request not to table the agenda concerning Army recruitment in tomorrow’s meeting,” said NA Spokesman Ramindra Chhetri. Earlier, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) had announced that it will register a complaint at the meeting against the recruitment announced by the NA. The Army has argued that its recruitment is in line with the Interim Constitution and the Army Act 2007 and that there is no need to make it an issue of discussion.

Further, the NA accused the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) of conniving with UCPN-M to tarnish the image of the NA and prolong its stay beyond September 15, reports Himalayan Times. “The 60-week roadmap of the UNMIN has helped the Maoists to delay the army integration process, and the Maoists seem to be adamant on extending the mandate of the UNMIN at any cost. It has helped weaken the position of NA. The so-called roadmap is nothing but its latent desire to extend its stay in Nepal. This shows the underlying common interests of the Maoists and the UNMIN in Nepali peace process. It proves that the UNMIN’s role has been serving the interests of the UCPN-Maoist,” a confidential paper from NA Headquarter stated.

According to Nepal News, the Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna said that India’s special envoy to Nepal Shyam Saran's Nepal visit was aimed at building consensus among all concerned parties for concluding the peace process and the drafting of the new constitution. In a written reply to a question in India's Lower House of Parliament, the Lok Sabha, Krishna said, "Special Envoy, Shri Shyam Saran visited Nepal from 4 - 6 August, 2010 to meet with a cross section of Nepalese political leaders and to express India’s genuine desire as a neighbour and time-tested friend of Nepal, to see a successful conclusion of the peace process and the drafting of a new Constitution through the building of a consensus among all parties concerned."

2) NE terrorist watch and PC speak (also from SATP):

Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram on August 25 said that while the year 2009 was a distinct improvement on the year 2008, it is in the 2010 that we have seen a dramatic decline in the number of incidents and in the number of casualties in the Northeast, according to Assam Tribune. There have been only 464 incidents until August 15, as against 1,297 and 1,561 for the whole year in 2009 and 2008 respectively. He pointed out: “Only 52 civilians have been killed, as against 264 and 466 respectively, and we have lost only 15 men of the security forces. Nevertheless, I must admit with regret that Manipur and Assam have been affected by long-duration blockades and bandhs and by intermittent violence.”
...
The Union Minister said that it is a matter of great satisfaction that a number of groups are engaged in talks with the Government of India. Among them are National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), pro-talk faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), Nunisa faction of the Dima Halim Daogah (DHD), Black Widow (BW), United People's Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC), Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF), Kuki National Organization (KNO) and United Peoples Front (UPF), he said. He further added, “We have appointed two Interlocutors: RS Pandey to talk to the NSCN (IM) and PC Haldar to talk to NDFB (PT), DHD (Nunisa), DHD (J), KLNLF, UPDS and ANVC, besides ULFA [United Liberation Front of Asom].”

3) IDSA take on Oz matters: Linky

With almost eighty per cent of the fourteen million votes cast counted, the Australian Labor Party seems to have secured seventy-two seats; the Liberal-led coalition is likely to hold seventy seats. Interestingly, there is more than a five per cent swing against the Labor and the Greens have emerged as the biggest beneficiaries with more than 3.5 per cent of the swing in their favour. The ruling Australian Labor Party could manage a positive swing in just one state, Tasmania, out of eight states that constitute the Commonwealth of Australia.

Given the fact that voting is mandatory in Australia, it is interesting to look into why Australian voters decided to come up with a split mandate. It is widely believed that more than anything else, the verdict has come against the Australian Labor Party, the reasons for which are not unknown. Just a few months back, Julia Gillard came to power given that former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s popularity was on a downward spiral. The Australian Labor Party was apprehensive that it would not win the next election if Rudd’s moves were not undone. Rudd’s not so appreciated decisions such as on climate change and tax on mining and subsequently leaks about Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s personal life became key factors in Labor’s loss. The Australian Labor Party particularly suffered massively in New South Wales and Queensland where voters were disappointed with the incumbent state governments led by Labor and possibly with the unceremonious ousting of Kevin Rudd from the Prime Minister’s post too. It may be noted here that it was Kevin Rudd who in the 2007 federal elections managed to bring a double digit swing in the Australian Labor Party’s favour in Queensland - his home state. This is in stark contrast to the current poll outcome where there is almost an equal swing away from the Australian Labor Party.

Nevertheless, it must be added that Gillard’s political moves did pay-off and her decision to hold elections barely two months after assuming the Prime Minister’s seat stands vindicated. This is due to the fact that on one hand the Australian Labor Party has not performed as badly as psephologists had predicted, and on the other the Liberals could not cash in on the opportunity and failed to get enough seats to form the government, something Gillard must now be smiling about. It is widely believed that voters preferred to vote for the Greens rather than for the Liberals as an alternative to Labor.

I must add that none of the newspaper reports I studied showed a Lib trumping the Labor. In fact, it was very well believed that Labor may squeak past the Liberal, and that is exactly how it landed. In fact, JG was on a defensive from the first debate onwards and she caught up massively when her party released the manifesto in the last week.

As a consequence, Australia seems to be heading towards a hung parliament. Chances are that a coalition government will be formed by the Australian Labor Party with support of the Green Party (which will represent the people in the Lower House for the first time) and three independent candidates. ‘The Gang of Three’, as they are called, are likely to play a deciding role in Australia’s political future, as the Labor Party led by Julia Gillard is trying hard to piece together a working majority by way of bringing Green members and independents as coalition partners. Labor is likely to succeed given that the Green Party Member of Parliament from Melbourne, Adam Bandt, has refused to line up with the Liberal-led coalition due to ideological positions. One of the independents Bob Katter, an ex- National Party of Australia member, is also likely to align with Labor rather than with the Liberals owing to his feuds with Tony Abbott and his coalition partners.

Coalition politics is an old though rare phenomenon in politics ‘Down Under’. The last time Australia faced a coalition government was in 1940 when Robert Menzies’ United Australia Party had defeated the John Curtin-led Australian Labor Party and formed a coalition government with the support of Country Party and two independents. Australia has not witnessed such a situation in the last seventy years. The possibility of the Labor-led coalition coming to power is likely to bring along a shift from the centre to the left and that will have a remarkable impact on the way Australia will be seen in coming months. Issues such as climate change, carbon emissions and nuclear non-proliferation will gain prominence, perhaps even the centre stage.

This is hard to believe. Nuke bashing, followup to the Kyoto protocol, etc. are order of the day in Oz politics with highly divergent views even within the ALP. It is hard to expect that suddenly these issues are going to gain prominence.

For India, the unfolding scenario might lead to a long term deadlock on the sourcing of Yellowcake from Australia. However, with the effective presence of the Greens, India-Australia cooperation on renewable energy and clean energy technology could further shape up to yield benefits for India. How stable or unstable the government will be is something that only time will tell. One thing, however, is certain; and that is the likelihood of political and ideological compromises the coalition members will have to make. A ‘Labor government with Independent-Green characteristics’ will have an impact on the government’s style of functioning and might lead to changes in the very core of Australia’s domestic and foreign policy orientations.

Updates

1) Oz elections is a bloody mess -- and needing a loong separate post from the weekend papers I could amass. A hung and dry Parliament keeping statisticians on tenterhooks. We may have to wait for another week or so to know who has the best shot for the minority government --- Labor or Liberal. Seems like Labor have just a tad of an outside shot now. The independent MPs seem to be having a whale of a time, shining in the limelite that the media could shower upon these folks.
2) Nepal elections are another bloody mess. It is de javu time. The only seriously funny incident worth noting this time is that:

The Maoist chief, who had entered the ring on Monday claiming he could win since he had managed to woo a bloc of four parties from the Terai, which had been sitting neutral earlier, proved to have been deluded as 206 lawmakers abstained from voting, opposing the Maoists’ failure to fulfil their peace commitments. With 111 MPs voting against him, the 55-year-old former prime minister could get only 10 votes from outside his party, tantalisingly short of the halfway mark of 300 needed to form the new government.

When will they stop this farce?
3) Some important news on the top maoist Polituburo, not reported broadly enough. Linky

A fast track court today awarded life imprisonment to two top Maoists — Amitabh Bagchi (53) and Tauhid Mulla alias Kartik (36). The court of Alok Kumar Dubey handed down the order after the duo was found guilty of waging war against the nation and also indulging in unlawful activities. The judgment comes exactly a year after the two were booked by the Ranchi police on August 24, 2009. Bagchi, a CPI (Maoist) politburo member and secretary of the central military commission of the outfit, and Mulla, a Bengal state committee member — are from Shyampukur in Calcutta and Murshidabad respectively. Bagchi was calm when the court delivered the verdict around 4 in the afternoon but Mulla appeared nervous. He repeatedly pleaded with the court to find him a way out.

The court delivered the judgment on the basis of a large number of Maoist documents and books recovered from Bagchi. Moreover, no policemen or witnesses turned hostile in the case. Additional public prosecutor S.N. Khanna said there were eight prosecution witnesses, but none for the Maoists. Bagchi’s books — Jail Break Jehanabad and Dandkaranya Nai Jansatta — were found to be highly provocative by the court. Moreover, the documents in his possession had details of the outfit’s structure and names of cadres manning the outfit. The two were arrested last year from Ranchi railway station.

A case was registered against the duo at the Chutia police station under Section 121 of IPC (waging war against the government) and Section 10 and 13 (B) of Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act 1967 and 17 Criminal Law Amendment (CLA) Act. The judge, in his order, said the crime committed by the two was more heinous than the ones involving the killing one or two persons. “They have been found guilty of preparing the whole generation to wage war against the nation,” the court said.

Bagchi has several pseudo names, including Amit, Anil, Sumit, R.K. Da, Suman and Sumananda Singh. He is the son of one Ranjeet Bagchi, a resident of Shivdas Bhaduri Street under Shyampukur police station of Calcutta. Mulla is son of Farid Mulla of Bucha Danga under Newada police station of Murshidabad district in Bengal. Sources said Bagchi happened to be the member of the CPI (Maoist) politburo, as well as a member of the Central Military Commission, the body that decides the armed strikes by Maoists across the country, and a member of the rebel central working committee and the eastern regional command.

4) Linky

Maoist rebels suffered another blow today as one of their top ranking commanders, who was wanted for murder, extortion and loot for seven years, surrendered before North Chotanagpur IG Manoj Mishra and DIG U.P. Singh in Bokaro, sending out signals of widening crack, in the rebels ranks. The surrender of Ramendra Singh alias Pankaj Singh (51), who was the in charge of outfit in Rohtas, Kaimur, Aurangabad, Jehanabad in Bihar and Chatra, Koderma in Jharkhand, came as a bolt from the blue for the Maoist organisation, which is yet to come to terms with the July 16 surrender of another top leader and explosives expert Varun Manjhi.

5) Can you believe this story? They first caught Nickole Tamang, an out of the blue capture in the first place. Then, he escaped. If I were Madan Tamang's kith or kin, I would nt know whether to laugh or cry at this bloody farce. Linky

Nickole Tamang apparently escaped yesterday morning when one of the policemen guarding him stepped away from him to take a cellphone call as the signal was feeble. CID officers said that a little before 6.30am, Nickole told constable Arabinda Kumbhakar he wanted to go to the toilet attached to the ground floor room of cottage No. 29, where he was being detained. A few minutes later, the constable — the other on-duty guard had gone out for tea — received a call on his cellphone. But the signal being weak, Kumbhakar stepped out of the room and walked further away where the reception was clearer.

The Gorkha Janmukti Morcha leader came out of the toilet after some time and, finding the constable busy speaking over the phone in another corner of the cottage, quietly slipped out, the police said. “It appears that Nickole cleverly guessed from the fading voice of the constable that he was moving away from the room. He grabbed the opportunity to escape,” a police officer said. Kumbhakar found Nickole’s room empty after he finished his conversation and raised the alarm. Police records show that Kumbhakar was away from his post between 6.32am and 6.40am, handing Nickole, the prime accused in the Madan Tamang murder case, eight minutes to make his getaway.

6) The Naga bodies can mess with the Meiteis, can they mess with the ULFA? One bunch of thugs beating up another. Instant karma. Linky

Reacting to the threats by NSCN (IM) that it would evict Assamese people living in Tirap district of Arunachal Pradesh if the economic blockade launched by AASU and AJYCP activists in the wake of NSCN (IM) attacks on the villagers of Charaipung area in Assam continues, the pro-talk faction of United Liberation Front of Asom said it would begin an economic blockade against Changlang district by closing the Margherita-Changlang road at Margherita from 5 am tomorrow for 72 hours. Announcing the protest programme, general secretary of the group, Jiten Dutta informed that if NSCN (IM) did not withdraw their threat to the Assamese people of Tirapdistrict, it would block all the roads leading to Arunachal Pradesh from Assam. It may be mentioned that the road that leads to Khonsa, district headquarter of Tirap, from Jaypur in Dibrugarh district has been blocked by activists of AJYCP, AASU and other organisations since August 21 last.

At the press meet convened at the Press Club here today which was also attended by the vice president of the faction, Prabal Neog, Dutta stated that theywould also take similar action against the people of Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland living in Assam if NSCN takes any action against the people from Assam living in Tirap district of Arunachal Pradesh or in Nagaland.

Here is more on the contested border between Assam and Arunachal. Linky

The border in the district, which is 101 km in length falls under four Police Stations, namely Titabor, Borhola, Teok and Mariani and there are as many as 13 border outposts, namely Panikhaiti, Bekajan, Gorajan, Gahorichowa, Bandar Chaliha, Kheremiya, New Panikhaiti, Rajabari, Gabharu, Disoi Valley, Chutiabari, New-Chungtia and New Sonowal. The people of Nagaland have encroached the whole disputed bordering areas of Assam by and large and made permanent settlement there. Sometimes tension prevails between the local people of Assam near the border and Naga encroachers due to various disputes. There are ample evidences of threatening the local entrepreneurs by the armed militants of the neighbouring district in those areas in earlier times. In such a situation, it is an astonishing fact how the interstate border is going on without a permanent border magistrate there since last 12 years.

Meanwhile,

The United Naga Council (UNC) of Manipur has extended the 20 day economic blockade on Manipur which was to end on Tuesday morning by another 25 days after New Delhi allegedly failed to intervene into their demands. A spokesman of UNC told the local press that they are extending their agitation since their demands are not fulfilled. A meeting of the Council was also held in Senapati district headquarter, 60 km north of here on Saturday.

The only saving grace this time is that: Linky

The extension of the blockade on National Highway 39 and 53, the life-lines of the State, forced Central para-military forces to intensify their routine road opening patrol (ROP) along the 65 km Mao-Kangpokpi sector of NH 39 on Tuesday. Speaking to The Assam Tribune, SP Nishit Ujjwal of Senapati district, said that the ROP has been intensified by six companies of CRPF and two companies of BSF along the route. “We have also alerted the police”, he added. The police official also confirmed the arrival of around 190 goods trucks from outside the State along the NH 39. A CRPF team also escorted around 32 empty trucks from Imphal to Nagaland sector of the Highway on Tuesday. When contacted over telephone, Nagaland police at Khuzama check gate bordering Manipur’s Mao Gate confirmed the movement of emptytrucks with CRPF escorts. Meanwhile, sources here said that another fleet of around 300 goods trucks are on their way to Imphal through the Imphal-Jiribam-Silchar Highway (NH 53).

Thank god for small happinesses.
7) Meanwhile, the CPI custodian has changed tack?! Linky

CPI’s national executive committee member Promode Gogoi today said that 60 lakh of the 2.6 crore people of Assam were Bangladeshis, and the problem of foreigners in the State should be solved by updating the National Register of Citizens (NRC). Talking to newsmen here today, the veteran CPI leader said: “In 1997, the then Union Home Minister Indrajit Gupta told the Parliament that there were 40 lakh Bangladeshis in Assam, and that 40 lakh Bangladeshis have increased to 60 lakh now.” He said that nowhere in the world, foreigners were given the voting right. “AIUDF leader Badruddin Ajmal is doing business in Kuwait, but he cannot cast his vote there. It’s only in Assam that a large number of foreigners have got the voting right,” Gogoi said, and added: “It’s condemnable that the State Government has put on hold the work of the NRC pilot project following a protest programme by an organization.”

Literacy level and violence -- a connection?

This is a report on Mizoram and how it keeps its peace. Linky

I am trying to understand how much of the peace is due to the GoI's aerial bombardment that finally forced the Mizo National Front to sue for peace. And how much of this peace is due to the high literacy levels and less insecurities that Hinduism (the imagined other in NG's paper) will overwhelm the Mizos?

The literacy levels of the Northeast states reads like this (from the 2001 census data as obtained from Linky):
State, Overall literacy %, Male literacy %, Female literacy %, Male - Female %
1) Mizoram 88.49 90.69 86.13 4.56
2) Tripura 73.66 81.47 65.41 16.06
3) Sikkim 69.68 76.73 61.46 15.27
4) Manipur 68.87 77.87 59.70 18.17
5) Nagaland 67.11 71.77 61.92 9.85
6) Assam 64.28 71.93 56.03 15.90
7) Meghalaya 63.31 66.14 60.41 5.73
8) Arunachal 54.74 64.07 44.24 19.83

For the record, here is the literacy level in the maoist belt
1) Maharashtra 77.27 86.27 67.51 18.76
2) West Bengal 69.22 77.58 60.22 17.36
3) Chhatisgarh 65.18 77.86 52.40 25.46
4) Madhya Pradesh 64.11 76.80 50.28 26.52
5) Orissa 63.61 75.95 50.97 24.98
6) Andhra Pradesh 61.11 70.85 51.17 19.68
7) Uttar Pradesh 57.36 70.23 42.98 27.25
8) Jharkhand 54.13 67.94 39.38 28.56
9) Bihar 47.53 60.32 33.57 26.75

Other areas of violence:
1) Jammu & Kashmir 54.46 65.75 41.82 23.93

And in the belt that seems to be doing ok so far (at least economically):
1) Kerala 90.92 94.20 87.86 6.34
2) Gujarat 69.97 80.50 58.60 21.90
3) Punjab 69.95 75.63 63.55 12.08

To my statistically poorly trained eye, a huge differential between male and female literacy % seems to have a high correlation for violence. Certainly high education level seems to have some positive correlation with less violence. I would like to revisit this trend a bit later contingent on digging more data.

Updates

1) UT status for Gorkhaland Linky

The Centre is considering granting Union territory status to the Darjeeling hills on the lines of the Delhi model after the expiry of the proposed interim authority’s tenure. The term of the interim authority, according to the Centre’s proposal, ends on December 31, 2011. The Centre is trying to find a permanent solution to the statehood problem, particularly with the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha unwilling to accept an extension in the proposed authority’s term. The Centre feels there is little possibility of the Bengal government agreeing to the Morcha demand for additional territory — the party wants the Dooars and the Terai besides the Darjeeling hills — or statehood.

Granting Union territory status to the hills is being seen as a face-saver for the stakeholders with all sides compromising on their stand on additional territory, officials in New Delhi said. The proposed plan, based largely on the National Capital Territory model of Delhi, will offer an elected Assembly with sizeable legislative powers to the hills. At present, only two of the seven Union territories — Delhi and Puducherry — have elected legislative Assemblies. The Centre wants the Bengal governor to play the role of the lieutenant governor. However the Centre’s plan needs to cross several hurdles, including convincing the new government at Writers’ Building after the Assembly polls next year.

2) If one had read the Namrata Goswami's four scenarios, one of them visualizes the Northeast as a tourism haven. Here is a report on this matter: Linky

According to a report of the United Nations World Tourism Organisation, India’s position based on foreign tourist arrival is 41, while that of China is four and Malaysia 11. Even Thailand, with 14.5 million tourists, is far ahead of India.

“The pages of a magazine in an airline have beautiful advertisements of the Incredible India campaign. The tourism department of Tamil Nadu proudly splashed the pages with all the beautiful destinations one can visit... Now turn to the page where the advertisement is about the tourism prospects of Assam and the pictures of chief minister Tarun Gogoi and tourism minister Rockybul Hussain stare back at the reader. Is this what Assam has to offer to its tourists?” asked Shantikam Hazarika, the director of Assam Institute of Management at a seminar on Tourism, Destination North East Tourism as an Engine of Growth, at Sankaradeva Kalakshetra today. The auditorium burst into applause — more appalled than thrilled.

3) Updates on ANVC Linky. Read it along with my previous report on ANVC at Linky

The Meghalaya government is examining the memorandum on the demand of the Garo hills-based militant outfit, the Achik National Volunteers Council (ANVC), for a Garoland Autonomous Council. Meghalaya chief secretary W.M.S. Pariat today said the state government was examining the various points in the ANVC memorandum.
...
The primary demand of the ANVC is creation of the Garoland Autonomous Council, unlike the existing district councils in the state. The Garo hills has the Garo Hills Autonomous District Council, a constitutional body formed more than 50 years ago. However, with the setting up of the Garoland Autonomous Council, the ANVC hopes to get direct funding from the Centre to run the administration. The autonomous body suggested by the ANVC is on the lines of the Bodoland Territorial Council in Assam.

On June 30, the outfit had agreed to the extension of the tripartite ceasefire agreement for three months on the condition that its demand for setting up of the Garoland Autonomous Council, among others, would be fulfilled within this period. The ANVC entered into the ceasefire with the Centre and the state on July 23, 2004. Though the initial demand of the militant outfit was for the creation of a separate Garo state, they now want the state government to set up an autonomous body, the Garoland Autonomous Council. During a meeting on July 30 with government officials, the ANVC promised that it would make sure that the ceasefire ground rules were strictly adhered by its cadres.

The Rock for Peace concert organised by the outfit in Tura in the West Garo Hills on August 15 was an initiative to show the government that it wanted peace and development to go hand in hand. The ANVC is also planning to take up similar initiatives in the future, which it hoped will pave way for early solution to their various demands pending for the past six years. During the period of ceasefire, there was relative peace in the three districts of Garo Hills. Other than the usual ceasefire monitoring committee meetings with the ANVC, there were two rounds of political talks this year with the outfit initiated by the Centre’s mediator, P.C. Haldar.

4) Meanwhile in Assam, Linky

Traffic was disrupted for several hours on National Highway 37 after protesters blocked the road at Bamunigaon under Chaygaon police station this morning. Several hundred protesters were on their way to block the Gopinath Bordoloi International Airport when they were stopped by a contingent of state police and CRPF. The protesters, comprising Garos and non-tribals from the Goalpara-Kamrup areas, were demanding exclusion of their villages from the Rabha Hasong Autonomous Council’s jurisdiction and holding of panchayat elections. “We are demanding that our villages be taken out of the Rabha Hasong Council and panchayat elections be held immediately,” Pradip Kalita, vice president of the Kamrup district unit of Ajanajati Surakhya Manch, said over telephone. The Manch had organised the march to the airport along with several other organisations representing the Garo community in Kamrup and Goalpara districts, like the Garo National Council and the Garo Women’s Council.
...
Panchayat elections in the Rabha Hasong council areas were put on hold after various organisations, led by the All Rabha Students Union, objected to it. Non-Rabha groups, on the other hand, demanded the elections be held leading to clashes in 2008. Kalita said majority of the 779 villages under the Council was inhabited by non-Rabhas and hence there was no justification of keeping these villages under its jurisdiction. “Approximately 500 villages are not inhabited by Rabhas, so where is the justification?” he asked. Garo organisations also raised the demand for a Garo autonomous council in Assam, comprising areas inhabited by the community in Kamrup and Goalpara districts. “We have no objection to such a council as long as the non-tribal villages are not included,” Kalita said. According to him, there are approximately 300 such villages.

One has to understand the constraints faced by GoI and babus when such inter-community angst exists on the ground. Not like there is no inter-community angst elsewhere in India, but the situation is so grave in the Northeast that the "rent-a-crowd-and-make-a-ruckus" mentality constrains the bulldozing of prosperity to this part of the country.
5) Elsewhere, from SATP: Why would nt taking to arms not be a career-based move if the state government does stuff to prove the terrorism-politicians' nexus?

Shillong Times reports that the surrendered Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) cadres are slowly taking charge over some crucial business interests in Meghalaya. Sources said the surrendered cadres are also getting the bulk of contract works in North-Eastern Hill University (NEHU). The unemployed youths in the State allege that the Government is tilted towards the surrendered militants instead of encouraging educated youths for productive growth. Sources said that whenever any tenders are floated by NEHU the officers of the construction wing direct the youths to meet and seek permission from Julius Dorphang, the former self-styled HNLC ‘chairman’ and his associates. Incidentally Dorphang is also a seasoned businessman now. Some registered contractors of NEHU on request of anonymity said, "Surrendered HNLC cadres are the bosses in NEHU and they are the ones who control the tendering process now."

According to these contractors, the surrendered HNLC has formed its own association of contractors particularly for NEHU construction works. All registered contractors seeking work in NEHU have been advised to seek membership of the association or they would not be allowed to participate in the tendering process. "We are required to pay a commission ranging from two to five per cent of the total value of the project to the surrendered HNLC association for each and every contract allotted to us," a contractor said. The report adds that the surrendered militants take full charge during the submission of tenders. They are at the gate to scan all tenderers and oversee the entire tender process. Contractors are actually short listed and selected by these former militants. Sources have also informed that most of the parking bays under the Meghalaya Urban Development Agency (MUDA), too, are controlled by the surrendered HNLC cadres.

6) It was only recently feared the a tri-some on motorcycles would launch attacks on paras and melt away in the crowd. I am seeing the first report of such a modus operandi. Linky

A surprise attack by a Maoist trio on a CRPF camp in Vishnugarh near Bokaro-Giridih border and an ensuing gun battle resulted in the death of a rebel in the small hours today. Two Maoists and a CRPF jawan also suffered bullet injuries in the incident. Around 3:45am, three Maoists on a bike, armed with AK-47 and SLRs, entered the block office of Vishnugarh from the back gate where the CRPF’s 22 Battalion was camping. They opened fire and a jawan, Mukesh Kumar, sustained a bullet wound in his hand.
...
CRPF officers said the Maoist attack reflected a strategy used by terrorists in Kashmir — attacking an establishment from the rear end. While the gunfight was on, hundreds of local residents were offering a special puja at a Shiv Mandir barely 500 metres away. Although the camp has a 10-point security network round the clock, devotional songs from the Shiv Mandir drowned the sound of rebel firing and delayed reinforcement, said a CRPF guard.

May be it is time we accepted that the maoists' success is because they out-think the cops. That is one reason why we need to neutralize the well-educated strategists in the Politburo. Some of the tribals may be willing pawns in this war, but the key to win the war is to cut the head off (no puns intended). At this stage, there should be no sympathy for the Politburo, even if there is some empathy for the tribals.
7) Linky

A group of Bhutanese refugees expelled from their Himalayan homeland nearly two decades ago left Nepal for Britain on Monday to begin new lives after living in United Nations-run camps for years. Thirty-seven refugees left Monday and will be followed by many more, said Stephen Jaquemet, an official with the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees in Nepal. Britain is the eighth nation to take in Bhutanese refugees. So far 32,000 have left for Western countries, most to the United States. More than 100,000 ethnic Nepalese — a Hindu minority in Bhutan for centuries — were forced out of Bhutan in the early 1990s by authorities who wanted to impose the country’s dominant Buddhist culture. They have lived as refugees in Nepal ever since.

Yakkitak on Occasional Paper by Namrata Goswami

Been stuck with a proof that has been elusive for the last one year and a half, so I am taking the liberty to unshackle my boredom by pouring over Namrata Goswami's Occasional Paper on IDSA Linky

The article lists a lot under what I will call the "whine profile" of the community at large. The key things I notice are (not in any order of priority):
1) Poor infrastructure development that ails the whole ecosystem -- There are commonalities elsewhere too with poor infra development in Bihar, UP, MP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa, North Karnataka and Marathwada region, but one has to see the peculiar situation of the Northeast in terms of the sub-Himalayan geography that makes rail travel close to impossible in many locations, National Highways that are often blocked by hartals and protests, rivers that change course and often even direction.
2) Poor acculturation of the Northeast community in the wide geography that is India -- Except for Bangalore, New Delhi and Calcutta, it is often hard to find people from the Northeast in most cities in India. Poor community feelings lead to various derogatory epithets, that often engender a vicious circle of pent-up fury on the lack of a complete Union with India.
3) Handling of self-pride issues that go with continued presence of AFSPA (the negation of which is a classic chicken and egg problem) -- These issues are common to J&K also. But as I pointed out earlier, AFSPA can be abrogated only with the commensurate rise of the state internal security apparatus to needs of the state, which in itself is conditioned on a leadership that sees its future in an overwhelming state of self-sufficiency rather than on victimhood that deserves the empathy of (and dole from) the GoI.
4) Religious and linguistic grievances that lead to the "two is a crowd" mentality -- Again there are commonalities with J&K in terms of religious grievances, some of it imagined, some of it real. Linguistic grievances put the Northeast in the same shade as Tamil Nadu, and also sporadic instances in the rest of South India and Maharashtra. From understanding Tamil Nadu's issues with GoI, the ball is certainly in the court of GoI (and Indians from both sides of the divide) on the language issue, while the case for religious accommodation leaves both sides heavily confused than clarified on the pre-requisites of good citizenry.
5) Extremely poor conversion rate of moneys allocated towards regional development versus regional development seen on the ground -- This issue has a wide commonality all across India with the rampant corruption that is easy to gloss over in the search for a "India Shining" paradigm. A widely leaking bucket leads to hopelessness in terms of the future, enervating the whole system.
6) Lack of regional benefits accrued by tapping the natural resources of the Northeast -- In this, there are commonalities with the region that is home to the Left Wing Extremists.

While the role of external powers in fostering the animosity of the people of the Northeast with the idea of India needs to be considered, two nuances need to be understood:
1) India is one not because of its politicians, but despite them. While the above makes for a heavy-duty sound-byte, one has to understand the complicated weave of ideas here. Politicians primarily focus on their own (and at times, only their microscopic community's) welfare, but they also set a role-model for peers to emulate. This pollination of a self-centred idea is the one that leads to progress (if any) across the nation. I may be mis-applying the "aham brahmasmi" idea here. But I believe I wont be too far off in saying that India is truly a democrazy -- quite unappreciated, especially in moments of extraordinary disquietude, yet perfectly stable and providing the right model (if any!) for a Union of peoples, ideas and widely-varying belief systems to progress towards a manifest destiny.
2) India is one not for want of others to divide us further, but for their ineptness. The more we slide to divide ourselves, the more inept the external powers get at accomplishing this task for us. While conspiracies to divide us are certainly conceived, the mere conception of an idea to divide and conquer is not enough. In fact, the closest parallel I can think of is Yogi Berra's sagely wisdom: "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is." This is one reason why I have extreme doubts on fears of how a global Ummah can somehow be manufactured, how a certainly-more-vulnerable India of 1947 could not be divided into a gazillion pieces but a more pulchritudinous India of 2010 can somehow be, how the Anglo-Saxons and their torchbearers can somehow manufacture a sustained set of million mutinies, etc. Sure, there are aberrations on the short-term, but the long-term scope and direction of what is India should be rather clear.

Updates

1) India-BD trade issues Linky

On August 5, the commerce minister and the prime minister's economic adviser shared views with members of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry on the impediments in the path of bolstering exports to India, our largest neighbour with whom we happen to have a very hefty trade deficit. Despite bilateral negotiations and even some unilateral trade concessions from India, our exports remain a fraction of the more than $3 billion that India annually exports to us. Does this mean we don't have anything the Indians want? Nothing can be farther from the truth -- as seen in the quantity of products Indian traders informally take back across their border. The problem lies elsewhere.

Many entrepreneurs blame non-tariff barriers, such as cumbersome product testing and certification, inadequate land-port facilities and lack of pass-through traffic for trucks and cargo containers. Entrepreneurs claim product testing and certifications alone account for 70 percent of the export bottleneck. If so, the imbalance in trade can be mitigated by getting products testing and certifications from Bangladesh Standards and Testing Institution (BSTI), recognised by its Indian counterpart. But does India have confidence in the standards and testing competence of BSTI? It may hurt our national pride to admit it, but the BSTI needs to improve its capabilities and ensure the integrity of testing and certification.

As a result, Jamdani sari exported to Kolkata now gets stuck at the land port for up to six months, waiting for textile testing done only in Chennai. And the Indian bureaucracy is responsible for this and many similar examples that remain thorns in our shoes. But the BSTI itself is also at fault. It lacks both the technicians to carry out sophisticated tests and assessments and often also the equipment for modern product testing. Most damaging is the common perception that certifications can be purchased and test results manipulated by greasing palms. Over the past 20 years, I have had many policy-level interactions with the BSTI and its ministry (Industries). I know the government is aware of BSTI shortcomings and has, over the years, undertaken many programmes to ameliorate the BSTI -- some funded locally but most funded by development partners, such as the European Union and International Trade Centre.

Despite this, the local business community has little confidence in the institute, so we can hardly fault India for taking issue with its certifications. India even included an upgrade project of BSTI facilities on the list of 14 projects to be funded by its $1 billion loan agreement. Yet such technical enhancements have done little to allay the business community perceptions of corruptibility and lack of professionalism at BSTI thus far.

To break the BSTI free from the clutches of nonchalant bureaucrats, rent-seeking syndicates and incompetent technical staff, we need public-private partnerships (PPPs). Product testing and certification jobs are revenue generators. The cost of setting standards can be largely borne by pro-bono professional inputs from private sector organisations. Many private technical organisations, industry-specific trade organisations and universities would find it financially feasible and expedient to form PPPs with the BSTI, and to raise its services world-class levels in testing, certification and standards-setting. International bodies can even vet (or cross-certify) these, for instant recognition overseas. Local and foreign entrepreneurs in Bangladesh would pay for such professional services. Such PPP arrangements ensure investment in: proper equipment; capable hired hands; market-based, demand-driven training; and professionalism among top management. Instead of being a blemish on Bangladesh's image, the BSTI would then actually be a driver of growth.

2) Prime accused of Gorkha leader Tamang’s murder arrested Linky

The West Bengal criminal investigation department (CID) made a significant breakthrough late on Sunday night by arresting Nicole Tamang, the prime accused in the murder of All India Gorkha League president Madan Tamang. Nicole is a central committee member of Bimal Gurung’s Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM), which is leading the struggle for a separate Gorkhaland state. Gurung is one of 23 people against whom FIRs have been registered.

CID sources said the involvement of Nicole had been proved on the day of the murder as his mobile phone had been found on the site of the crime. “However, Nicole went into hiding. Our officers arrested him from his ancestral home at Kaijalay, Darjeeling, after receiving specific information,” a CID officer said. Sources said tracking call details of Nicole’s mobile revealed his direct involvement in the murder. His calls to hired killer Kayla strengthened CID’s belief. Kayla, the sources said, stabbed Madan with patang, a local weapon, while he was addressing a rally in Darjeeling on May 21.So far, 11 people, including Nicole, have been arrested in the case.

Nicole was Bimal Gurung’s driver, but quickly rose through the ranks and became a member of GJM’s central committee. Till Madan’s murder, Nicole used to accompany Gurung to important meetings.

Telegraph adds Linky

Nickole, the ninth person to be arrested in the case, has been charged with murder and conspiracy. He was produced in the court of the chief judicial magistrate in Darjeeling amid tight security and remanded in judicial custody for 14 days.

3) Francis Rabha, one of the top leaders of the 109th 'Battalion' of ULFA, is killed in an encounter with the 12 Battalion CRPF.
4) Linky

The Manipur government put one more feather in its cap by opening a medical institute in Imphal West today, three days after starting a National Institute of Technology (NIT). The government-run Jawaharlal Nehru Hospital at Porompat of Imphal West was upgraded to the 300-bed Jawaharlal Nehru Institute of Medical Sciences (JNIMS). This is the first medical institute to be run by the state government and the second one in Manipur after the Regional Institute of Medical Sciences (RIMS), which is under the Union health ministry. The Medical Council of India on July 14 sanctioned the new institute. The MBBS course at JNIMS has 100 students. Eighty-five of them are from the state while the remaining seats have been filled up with students from other states nominated by the Union health ministry.

At the inauguration ceremony, Governor Gurbachan Jagat said the opening of the NIT and medical institute pointed the direction in which the state should move towards the path of development, peace, reconciliation, education and health for all. The governor said the government should start planning and provide attractive packages for the these doctors and engineers of tomorrow so that they do not go outside the state for jobs. Jagat lauded chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh for making “tremendous efforts” personally to open the two institutes. Ibobi Singh said the institute would produce enough doctors for the requirements of the state. He also pointed out that by 2025, Manipur would be requiring 1,000 additional doctors to provide quality health service. Health minister Ph. Parijat Singh expressed happiness that the present government could realise long cherished dreams of the people and fulfil their demands. He promised speedy infrastructure development for the institute and the hospital.

5) See my earlier post on this matter: Linky

The Bangladesh government has asked countries, including India, where it suspects the killers of its founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman are hiding to track down and arrest the absconding men. Dhaka suspects that at least two of them, former captain Abdul Majed and Risaldar Moslehuddin, are hiding in India and has written to New Delhi to seek their custody. "We have sought Indian assistance for tracking down and arrest the remaining killers... We asked India to return them if they really are staying there," Home Minister Sahara Khatun said.

Twelve Bangladesh Army officers were convicted for leading a putsch in which Rahman and most of his family members were killed 15 August, 1975. Five of the 12 convicts were hanged earlier this year. One of them has died while six are absconding. Ruling Awami League general secretary and minister Syed Ashraful Islam told newspersons that the absconding killers "living particularly in western countries" could be extradited through court clearance from those countries.
A senior police official at the police headquarters told BSS, the official news agency last week, that ex-lieutenant colonel Khandaker Abdur Rashid was hiding in Libya and often travelled to Pakistan while S.H.B.M. Noor Chowdhury was in Canada but sometimes travelled to Britain. Ex-lieutenant colonel Shariful Haque Dalim is staying in Kenya and Rashed Chowdhury is in the US.

6) Hydro power in the NE (there are some whines in the report) Linky

...
For hydroelectric power projects, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam are deemed the best places as these two States are very rich in water resource. Moreover, other States of Northeast India also have some potentiality for hydro-power. A report based on a survey conducted by the Department of North Eastern Region (DoNER) also confirms it — the potential of generating energy is to the extent of a staggering 50,328 MW.
The Central Electricity Authority (CEA), which has carried out the preliminary ranking study of India’s national hydroelectric power potential in 2001, gave the highest status to the Brahmaputra river system. The 168 schemes considered in the northeastern States have been estimated to possess a cumulative power potential of 63,328 MW. These schemes are at various stages of investigations and development. The developments have been carried out by the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), North Eastern Electric Power corporation (NEEPCO), Brahmaputra Board, State electricity boards and several private companies. Since power demand in the industrially backward northeastern States is quiet low as compared to the national requirement, the northeastern power potential will mostly feed the other States of the country. Some of the projects will be the largest project of India, such as the 3000-MW projects of Dibang and Lohit rivers, three 2000-MW projects of Subansiri to name a few, of which the 2,000 MW Lower Subansiri project is expected to be completed by this year.

India already has a large number of dams, many of which are multipurpose dams of which irrigation is one of the major objectives. So far as the Northeast is concerned, power generation is the main objective, escaping the requirement of flood cushioning and flood moderation which is vital in the Brahmaputra and Barak Valleys. Since the dams constructed are of ‘‘run-of-the-river’’ type, they are not designed and aimed to accommodate the peak-flood discharge and hence will not work for flood moderation during monsoon. None of these projects have irrigation component, except the Pagladiya dam project of the Brahmaputra Board which was abandoned halfway due to problems associated with rehabilitation and resettlement.
About 103 dam projects have been cleared by the Ministry of Forest and Environment, Government of India, in the northeastern region of various magnitudes. The main hydro-power projects in the Northeast are Ranganadi, Doyang, Khandong, Loktak and Umium. Lohit, Tipai-mukh, Siang, Subansiri, Dibang, Kulsi, Jiadhal, Simsang etc are under construction. Among all these multipurpose dam projects, most of the dam projects are related with the Brahmaputra and its tributary rivers like Kapili, Doyang, Khandong, Subansiri, Lohit, Dibang and Kulsi.

7) Nepal update: Linky

The Maoists have indicated that after the next round of election if unsuccessful, they would look for other alternatives. It is not clear what that means. Their central committee will be meeting on the 19th. The Nepali Congress has not changed its stand. They are insisting that a consensus should be forged on vital issues of peace process mainly on integration and rehabilitation of Maoists combatants before they could change their stand.

8) Oz elections: I must admit that I am a bit too late to the electioneering. Nevertheless, I read with amusement how Tony Abbott who was a no-namer from the Liberals side -- the man who had won his party's leadership over Malcolm Turnbull by a single vote, the man who was never in the scene till Joe Hockey committed hara-kiri over the conscience vote on the emissions trading legislation, the man whose opposite number (Kevin Ruud) was enjoying astronomical popularity ratings, etc. came to be a contender for the top post. Similarly, amusing is the fall from grace of Kevin Ruud -- losing his ability to communicate in public, especially in the aftermath of the Copenhagen climate change fiasco (to the Oz side, that is), thumbing his nose at the Cabinet processes, calling the chinese "ratf***ers" in open mic, losing the party control to the machinations inside ALP, etc. In the midst of all this lies the "Welsh woman" -- a pejorative for Julia Gillard, a first generation immigrant from Wales, a political operator par excellence, defying conventional mores and leading an "unAustralian" way of life, etc. This sure as heck is a soap opera par imagination.

A PTI report that is floating claims this: "Gillard likes to see Australia as a ‘republic’" Linky. Having followed her interviews fairly closely, I can say that the report is wrong as well as right. JG claims that she would like to see a Republic, but she herself would not do anything towards that goal. She claims that a Republic needs more than just politicians' involvement and if it does happen in her regime, she would be happy for that. But she would nt go around "wasting" her time and dividing the people vertically in that goal. That is a more nuanced take on the matter than what the PTI report says. JG in her interviews comes across as a fairly intelligent lady, while TA comes across (at least to me) as someone whipping the hysteria of "boat peoples", mining super-tax, etc. But nothing is guaranteed once these folks are in power, nothing, absolutely nothing.

Response to Op-ed of Siddharth Varadarajan

In the Hindu, Siddharth Varadarajan writes: Linky
My response to his op-ed which I posted on the Hindu webpage:

The author seems to have whitewashed the atrocities committed by the YCL, the "student" wing of the PLA and the fact that the maoists have never come close to disbanding the YCL. He has also ignored the fact that the PLA has not stood by its commitments that led to the 2006 12-point agreement. Almost every one of the mainstream parties -- from the Nepali Congress to the United Marxist-Leninists to the Terai-based outfits -- have complained, often vociferously, at the violations of the 12-point agreement by the YCL and the CPN (maoist).

Further, it seems to be that as long as "mainstream" Nepalis believe a certain version of the story, the author assumes them to be a fact, independent of whether the Indian Embassy in Kathmandu has denied this or not. Under this rubric falls the accusations of i) newsprint for Kantipur -- when the Kantipur folks did not get the export/duty form completed properly for shipments from Calcutta, ii) threats to Ram Kumar Sharma -- it is a case of my word vs. your word unless there is proof, iii) "punishment" to the maoists -- again a rhetorical device devoid of proof on the ground, etc. All this begs the question: who is the author batting for? One could certainly assume that Shri Siddharth Varadarajan -- a US citizen -- would possibly bat for his home country's interests over the country of his origin. Following on Shri Varadarajan's logic, it is a case of my word vs. his word on this matter.

Other questions that seem to have been missed by Shri Varadarajan: Why is Pushpa Kamal Dahal still trying to bulldoze his way into a Government when four polls have repeatedly shown that he cannot lead a consensus government? Why is that the Nepali Congress, United Marxist-Leninists and a good fraction of the Madhes parties, cutting across party lines, are not keen on seeing Prachanda in power? Why is it that Baburam Bhattarai has to take a backseat when he could ably lead a consensus government? Why is it that India should not coax a consensus government in the first place in Nepal?

Indo-American Relations: A History

As part of an interesting discussion at BRF, RamaY and I challenged each other to provide a snapshot of what we thought was America's views towards India. My task was to provide a brief summary of sources of America's foreign policy decisions when it came to India.

What I did was browsed the internet & read articles plus 'Google Books' and provided a glimpse into the relations in zimple englipees. To put it crudely, I am just regurgitating, albeit in a form that hopefully is easy to understand for Ram, Robert and Rahim. After you have read it top to bottom, you should see a pattern and be able to explain the nuances to your parents, siblings, friends, offspring, relatives and enemies. If you are not able to do so, then it mean I have much more to learn about the art of writing - which is actually a lot. Or, that you might be lacking in certain areas. Give that a thought too :-)

If you want to spend more time away from your family, work and leisure, then the references should provide you plenty of hours to while away.

Here is what I summarized. Ensoy thangamani.

Read more »

Updates

1) From SATP:

The Union Government removed names of 23 former Khalistani militants, all foreign nationals, from the Centre's list of blacklisted Sikh radicals as they are not involved in any serious criminals cases and anti-India activities, reports Times of India. Consequently, these 23 persons will now be able to get Indian visa and travel to any parts of India without any restriction. The Punjab State Government had recently recommended to the Centre for striking off the names of 46 radicals from the then list that comprised 169 persons, who originally hailed from the State and have since settled in different countries across the world, including US, Canada, Germany and UK. The list, meant for travel ban and denial of visa, still has 146 names of Sikh radicals, who were directly or indirectly associated with various pro-Khalistan militant outfits.

2) Just noted this article on currency paper sourcing Linky

India has refused to accept currency paper shipments from one of its biggest suppliers in Britain because of uneven production standards that could compromise the quality of printed rupee notes.
...
India has not yet cancelled its contract with the firm that supplies about 40-45 per cent of its needs, but sources said the deal could be in jeopardy. The RBI contract apparently contributes a quarter of De La Rue’s £96.6-million pre-tax profits.

3) Monsoon prediction models are still scratchy?! It is time that the lifeline of the country gets a little more supercomputer help. Linky

The IMD had earlier predicted a normal monsoon with August and September wetter than June and July. While the 4 per cent deficit is still within normal limits, scientists are concerned about the forecast for two weeks of below normal rain.
...
India’s overall monsoon is 4 per cent below normal despite eastern India reeling under severely deficient rainfall but the rain level could decrease further in the coming week. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its weekly monsoon update today predicted that the overall rainfall across the country will remain below normal over the next two weeks — August 14 to 27.

4) If it is life or death, it is back to India again.
India shows its big heart to Nepal Maoists Linky
5) Hindu asks some eminent people on their best and worst of India's post-independence era Linky
My best: Adoption of universal suffrage in the 1950 Constitution. The self-proclaimed "world's greatest democracy" did not get universal suffrage even through the 50s, while our sagely Constitution writers under the able guidance of Dr. BR Ambedkar the great, did find enough reason to not doubt the Indian electorate. I dont use the epithet "the great" quite often.
My worst: License/permit raj that stifled the growth of education, healthcare and judicial sectors even as the population grew.
6) Australia poll update: Seems like Julia Gillard has pulled closer and is inching ahead of Tony Abbott. This could be a neck and neck, or so the talkshow hosts claim. One anecdote I heard is that: Oz folks have not overthrown a ruling party without at least two shots at ruling (except once way back in the WWII times). That would put JG and Labor on top. Another factor is that women voters are enthused, and TA has predominant support only with the 50+ brigade. Western Australia seems clearly Liberal especially with the conservative lot and mining folks, while Victoria and South Australia are going neck and neck (JG is from SA whereas her current domicile is Victoria). Queeensland seems to be a different case as only 60% of QD's population is in Brisbane unlike, for example, Victoria (where 80% is in Melbourne). Plus, the supposed Kevin Ruud factor will play a big role here (KR is from QD). NSW may tip over for Labor due to the cosmopolitan nature of Sydney. Not much clue about Tasmania. It seems crazy enough to bet on either folk, but one thing is clear. Any PM is better than Kevin Ruud for India. Also read that Kevin Ruud's daughter Jessica Ruud (who is married to the Hong Kong born, Brisbane grown, and Shanghai working Albert Tse) has published a novel that starkly resembles JG uprooting KR. Wonderful, reality fiction.

NLFT and MHA report

1) From SATP:

The total number of surrendered militants of the NLFT and the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) outfits rose to around 130 in 2010. According to an official document, over 8,200 militants have surrendered to the authorities in Tripura since 1993. According to the BSF and other security officials, militants belonging to various militant groups in the Northeast region have set up about 90 camps in different parts of Bangladesh, especially Sylhet District and Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), bordering Tripura, Mizoram and Meghalaya.

2) MHA report: Linky
Contrary to the title of the report, HM should not be too relieved. The conflict zone has moved from the J&K axis and the NE axis to the heartland with the maoist menace very well-coordinated. In any case,

Following are the details of the number of incidents, casualties of civilians, security personnel and number of terrorist/extremist killed in the State of Jammu & Kashmir and North Eastern states are as under:-

Jammu & Kashmir
Year No. of Incidents No. of SFs killed Civilians killed Terrorists killed

2008 708 75 91 339
2009 499 64 78 239
2010 (Up to June 30) 254 34 20 114

North Eastern states
Year No. of Incidents No. of SFs killed Civilians killed Terrorists killed
2008 1561 46 466 640
2009 1297 42 264 571
2010 (Up to July 15) 397 4 44 160

3) Just to confirm the above, in the Parliament,

The Government on August said almost 8,500 armed Naxal [Left Wing Extremist] cadres were present in the country and as many as 21 left wing extremist groups were indulging in acts of violence, reports DNA. "As per available inputs, the total strength of armed cadres of Naxalites is around 8,500," Minister of State for Home Affairs Ajay Maken told the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) in a written reply. Maken also said, "According to intelligence inputs, there are 21 left wing extremist (LWE) groups indulging in violence in the country". There are no inputs to indicate that the LWE groups are being supported financially by various industrialists. However, they raise funds from contractors and businessmen by imposing levies through coercive means, he said in reply to another question. Maken said the total number of security personnel killed by Naxals in the current year, up to July 31, is 218. To an another question, Maken said, "There are no inputs indicating operational link between Maoists of Nepal and India."

Further, Maken said People's Committee against Police Atrocities (PCPA), a frontal organisation of the Communist Party of India (CPI-Maoist) was involved in the derailment of the Janeswari Express, which killed 148 passengers. "Investigation conducted, so far, reveals that Police Santras Birodhi Janasadharaner Committee (PSBJC/PCPA), a frontal organisation of Maoists, was involved in damaging the railway track, thereby causing the accident." said the Minister.

To complete the circle, if one correlates with the NLFT surrender saga, around 8200 cadres have surrendered since 1993. That would guesstimate the neutralization time of the maoist menace (of the 8500 cadres) at around 15 years. We are really talking about one generation of crisis here. The best strategy as of now is to ensure that more folks dont fall prey to the maoist agenda. Cutting the Oxygen is the key before managing the fire. There are no two things about this. That is why when the HM or someone else states that the menace will be put down in three years or four, I am unwilling to buy it. Clearly, the worst of the maoist menace is NOT behind us, but ahead of us. Especially given the rotten local intelligence machinery, we are going to see more blood-letting before the naysayers such as Digvijay Singh and Nitish Kumar will come to the other side of the divide. That is bound to happen. GoI has not surrendered on J&K, so that is one precedent that if push comes to shove, GoI can battle it across generations. If that is any guarantee, that is the best guarantee to keep your heart-rate low....

Three reports

1) Caste bias in the maoist apparatus Linky
Two points on the report: a) This very important report has NOT drawn the attention it deserves, which is amazing given that many had "predicted" such a division in not-so-crystal-clear terms because of the political incorrectness involved.

Over the years, a caste system has taken root within the Maoist organisation that is now on the verge of a revolt against alleged exploitation of tribals and scheduled castes who are being confined to the armed wing, while dominant castes are grabbing all senior posts in the rebel network across states. Interrogation of Andhra Pradesh’s top Maoist leader N. Narsimha Reddy, alias Gaganna, who was arrested from Nawadih in Bokaro last week, has revealed that more than four dozen women were part of the rebels’ army in Jharkhand, but not a single one of them was from the Mahto community. All the girls, he alleged, were either tribals or belonged to scheduled castes, a trend being followed by the Maoists in all the other states.

Reddy said if it was the Mahtos in Jharkhand, it was the Yadavs in Bihar and the Reddys and Raos in Andhra Pradesh who were members of local area committees that had exclusive rights to collect levy. “If this is the way the rebels continue to function where tribals and those belonging to lower castes like Manjhi, Bhuiyan, Ganju and Kharwar would work for the armed wing to fight security forces, while the upper castes collected levy, the Maoists will have to pay a heavy price in the coming days,” Reddy said during interrogation by senior police officers including IG (operations) R.K. Mallick, CRPF DIG Alok Raj and Bokaro SP Saket Singh. “A revolt is now a distinct possibility,” added Reddy.

Reddy claimed local villagers, along with disillusioned young Maoists, were getting close to the police. That was the reason behind his own arrest and that of cadres like Anuradha Sharma, Ravi Sharma and Mohammad Hussain, alias Anna, that had left a vacuum within the Maoists leadership in Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand. In fact, Reddy claimed he was made in-charge of the Jharkhand sub-committee in 2007 and sent to the Palamau and Latehar areas to try and stem the tide of villagers turning against them.

Reddy admitted there were serious differences between the Maoists’ central leadership and its sub-area committees and said that on several occasions junior cadres had openly refused to toe the line. Reddy, who was lodged in Tenughat jail, was brought to Bokaro yesterday for interrogation after he was remanded to the custody of the district police. He will be questioned for the next two days by the senior police officers. Bokaro SP Saket Singh said Reddy also revealed several names. Those entrusted with collecting levy were Rajesh Mahto, alias Saranda Tiger, Ramchandra Mahto, Santosh Mahto, Ajai Mahto, Udai Mahto, Dharmendra Mahto, Nago Mahto and Bhuvneshwar Mahto. And those who were part of the armed squad that was forbidden from collecting levy, were Navin Manjhi, Kundan Pahan, Ravi Manjhi, Pravir Manjhi, Pratiram Manjhi, Misir Besra, Pandu Manjhi (arrested) and Varun Manjhi.

b) The alias Gangana is used by Nambala Keshav Rao (see my post at Linky for the maoists op-chart). This guy, Narsimha Reddy, seems like a different chap using the same alias. If Nambala keshav Rao had been caught, that would have been a major major coup that would have resulted in some splashes in the maoist outlets, that I dont see.
2) Meanwhile, Linky
It took close to a bloody year, eh?! Wheels turn surely, but slowly in India.

The IAF has got the government's permission to fire back at Naxals in extremist-hit areas in self-defence, highly-placed Indian Air Force sources said today. The government's nod to the IAF's request made in September last year comes at a time when a debate is raging on whether India should use its armed forces against left-wing extremists, whom prime minister Manmohan Singh has described as the gravest internal security threat. The IAF currently deploys two of its Mi-17s and two Dhruv helicopters in anti-Naxal operations. It had lost one of its personnel when a helicopter ferrying election officials and material during the Chattisgarh assembly polls was fired at by suspected Naxals a couple of years ago.

The government had given permission to the IAF to defend itself from the extremists' fire and had laid out conditions on the use of small arms in self-defence sometime in October-November last year. Consequently, the IAF has fitted sideward-mounted machine guns on its helicopters flying in Naxal-affected areas basically for logistics, personnel transport and casualty evacuation of paramilitary forces engaged in fighting the Maoists, the sources said. These guns would be operated by IAF commandos belonging to Garud units, who would be on board the helicopters every time they go out on sorties, the sources said.

Defence minister AK Antony had told Parliament in November last year that though no offensive military action had been envisaged while using the IAF helicopters in anti-Naxal operations, there was no specific approval required for action in self-defence. However, the IAF has proposed a draft 'rules of engagement' to regulate such action, in order to avoid any ambiguity and damage to the helicopters or injury to their occupants, he had said replying to members' questions. Among the conditions laid out were that no indiscriminate firing should be carried out and that the Garuds should be sure of the source of the attack on the helicopters before retaliatory fire was unleashed. These guidelines were issued to ensure there were no civilian causalities in case the IAF used its guns in self-defence, the defence ministry had explained then.

"The IAF helicopter crew will not use the conventional heavy fire power weapons such as rockets and other guns on board, but only the sideward-mounted machine guns. They will use the weapons only if fired upon," the sources said. "Fortunately, in these months that we have been allowed to defend our assets, there has been no occasion when we had to use the sideward-mounted guns," they said. The IAF, the sources said, had obtained the government's approval recently to withdraw 17 of its Mi-17 helicopters that are currently in operation with various UN missions. Once the number of its helicopters increased, it could think of sparing more choppers for the paramilitary forces that were combating the Maoists after assessing the situation, the sources said.

They said for the use of its helicopters in Maoist-hit areas, the IAF had asked the state police and the paramilitary to take a number of precautions such as sanitising the helipad areas. "If the Naxals have rockets, as it is being suggested, the security forces would sanitise the area up to the range of these rockets, be it 600m or more, from the helipads," the sources said. Admitting that the IAF had imposed an 80-hour per month per helicopter limit for flying, they said it had, in fact, done more hour-sorties in the last four months than the prescribed limit. The helicopters had done an average of 169 hours in April, 91 hours in May, 118 hours in June and 89 hours in July this year, they said, denying media reports that the IAF had refused to fly in the Naxal-affected regions during certain operations recently.

They said the time limit was set as per IAF's norms for all its helicopters, keeping in mind the maintenance and repairs required for these machines after they had flown for a specified number of hours. It was also to have a certain number of platforms available for operations at any given time. "In case of a crisis, like the Leh cloudburst, there is no question of IAF helicopters being denied, so let's not get into a blame game," the sources said. On the question of paramilitary forces wanting a separate air wing for themselves, the sources said the issue of operating an aircraft or a helicopter fleet was "complicated and not simplistic" as it sounded. They said an air fleet required a large supply chain for spares, support systems and other logistics, which was not an easy task. "Some state governments bought helicopters but found it difficult to operate them due to the lack of support systems," they said.

3) Cell phones and cancer: Having read some of the literature in this area 5-6 years back, I will just say this. There is NO proof as of now that cell phones have anything to do with cancer. The key operative word is "as of now." But it is not before long a link will be found. For one, the number of devices that use the EM spectrum is only increasing and will not do anything but proliferate exponentially. The second matter is that cancer is poorly understood and seems like will remain poorly understood for quite a while (unless there is a dramatic advance somewhere else). Short of that, take away cell phones from kids and adolescents. If I were a parent, I would ban cell phone usage for kids modulo emergencies.

In any case, Sandeep Joshi avers that "The Union government finally seems to have woken up to the health hazards related to radiation from mobile towers and handsets." Linky I am not that optimistic about the inevitable gap between the cup and the lip. Use hands-free, use cell phones sparingly, go back to land-lines if need be, etc. I have a more detailed pdf on this issue by one Neha Kumar and Prof. Girish Kumar of IIT Bombay. However, the pdf seems too dense for a non-electromagnetics audience. I wish blogspot would allow a pdf upload.
4) Nepal update: Former Indian diplomat posted in Nepal, Shri KV Rajan, has made a visit to consult with the political spectrum to bring a consensus government. Hard task, obviously. Rakesh Sood, the Indian ambassador, was in South Block for consultations right after Shyam Saran left. Prachanda dilly-dallying is boring, for later.

Assam Accord, Than Shwe visit and Nepal update

1) The Assam Accord is 25 years old, but many of its provisions are yet to be implemented. A bit of a pro-leftist stand with a partial hearing deficiency, but nevertheless good to get started. Linky

Apart from the definition of Assamese people , the other core issues that the accord sought to address remain unsettled – the detection and expulsion of foreigners who illegally entered Assam through the State's porous borders after March 25, 1971, and the sealing of the India-Bangladesh border to prevent further infiltration.
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From the beginning of the agitation, the Left and some democratic parties, as well as some intellectuals, urged the agitation leaders to accept the cut-off date of March 25, 1971, for the detection and expulsion of foreigners. But the AASU-AAGSP leadership insisted on 1951 as the cut-off year and, later, 1961. So the agitation was prolonged, and those who reasoned in favour of the 1971 cut-off date were attacked as “stooges of foreigners”; the agitation leaders called for socially boycotting them. About 70 workers of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), or the CPI(M), the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist), or the CPI(ML), the Revolutionary Communist Party of India (RCPI), the Students Federation of India (SFI), the Democratic Youth Federation of India (DYFI), the Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU) and the All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS) were brutally murdered; many were maimed for life. These left-wing political parties, student-youth bodies, trade unions and peasant bodies did not want the Bangladeshis to be expelled from Assam, the movement leaders alleged. Divisive and communal forces that crept into the movement at times turned it into one for “driving out Muslim minorities”; in the infamous massacre at Nellie in the undivided Nagaon district in 1983, over 1,800 immigrant Muslim settlers were butchered in a single day. In the end, the AASU-AAGSP combine did accept March 25, 1971, as the cut-off date. It was incorporated in Clause 5.8 of the Assam Accord: “Foreigners who came to Assam on or after March 25, 1971, shall continue to be detected, deleted and expelled in accordance with law. Immediate and practical steps shall be taken to expel such foreigners.” But the acceptance came after much bloodshed; 855 participants in the agitation lost their lives and were declared martyrs.

Those hopes remained unfulfilled as successive AGP and Congress governments in the State failed to implement the accord's provisions regarding the detection, deletion (of names from voters lists) and expulsion of foreigners and the sealing of the border with Bangladesh. The constitutional, legislative and administrative safeguards meant for the Assamese people also largely remained on paper. The Centre, too, has not been able to deliver on the commitments that Rajiv Gandhi's government made in August 1985. This failure fuelled the secessionist movement, the seeds of which were sown during the “anti-foreigners” agitation. The United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), formed in 1979, articulated popular grievances against a Union government perceived as negligent towards the State's problems. The solution lay, the new outfit promised, in the creation of a Swadhin Asom (Independent Assam) to be achieved through an armed liberation movement. The failure of the AGP to implement the accord in its first tenure helped ULFA gain ground.

The information tabled in the Assembly by Assam Accord Implementation Minister Bhumidhar Barman makes a sorry tale. From 1985 up to May 31, 2010, as many as 49,891 foreigners were detected by the tribunals under the Foreigners Act and the erstwhile Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act, 1983. However, only 2,326 foreigners have been expelled to Bangladesh in the past 25 years. From 1985 and up to December 2009, only 1,428 foreigners who had re-entered the State were pushed back. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi admitted in the Assembly that most illegal settlers disappeared after their cases were referred to foreigners' tribunals. The State government has set up three detention camps in Goalpara, Silchar and Kokrajhar to house the detected foreigners until their deportation. At present, 57 foreigners are lodged in the Goalpara camp, 16 in the Kokrajhar camp and one in the Silchar detention camp. The lacunae in the mechanism of detection and expulsion have resulted in colossal waste of taxpayers' money. Between 1985 and 2006, over Rs.400 crore was spent on the exercise.

Clause 9 of the accord says: “The international border shall be made secure against future infiltration by erection of physical barriers like walls, barbed wire fencing and other obstacles at appropriate places. Patrolling by security forces on land and riverine routes all along the international border shall be adequately intensified. In order to further strengthen the security arrangements, to prevent effectively future infiltration, an adequate number of check posts shall be set up. ... All effective measures would be adopted to prevent infiltrators crossing or attempting to cross the international border.” However, Assam's 267.30-kilometre international boundary with Bangladesh is yet to be completely sealed; there is a 59-km stretch that has no barbed wire fencing. The State government's Public Works Department (Border Roads) has so far spent Rs.288.35 crore out of the total sanctioned amount of Rs.343.75 crore for the erection of barbed wire fencing along 175.52 km and the construction of 200.18 km of border road along the international boundary. The PWD was entrusted with the work of erecting barbed wire fencing along a length of 183.21 km; the department found that the work was not feasible along a 6.69 km stretch. Fencing has been erected along 175.62 km out of the remaining 176.52 km (99.49 per cent). March 2011 is the deadline for the completion of work over the remaining 895 metres.

The National Building Construction Corporation (NBCC) and the National Projects Construction Corporation (NPCC) have also been entrusted with the work of erecting barbed wire fencing. However, the State government could not inform the Assembly about the progress of the work by these two agencies because the details were not made available by the Centre until July 13, 2010. Samujjal Kr Bhattacharyya, AASU adviser, said: “Over the past 25 years, the AGP was in power for two terms but did nothing to implement the accord. During its second tenure, not a single review meeting at the level of Chief Minister was held. The BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] was in power at the Centre for six years. However, not a single review meeting on the Assam Accord, either at the Prime Minister's level or at the Union Home Minister's level, was held during National Democratic Alliance [NDA] rule. The Congress, which has been in power for most of the time during this period, also failed miserably to honour the commitments made by the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi as well as the commitments made by the present Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh. The Left parties and the Nationalist Congress Party [NCP] also cannot escape responsibility for the non-implementation of the Assam Accord as they too enjoyed power in some way in New Delhi and Dispur.” Bhattacharyya questioned the Centre's sincerity in sealing the border. “It is very unfortunate that while the government could seal and arrange floodlighting and effective patrolling along the India-Pakistan border in just three years, it failed to seal the India-Bangladesh border, arrange floodlighting and ensure effective patrolling by the Border Security Force [BSF] even after 25 years of signing of the Assam Accord,” he said.

On May 5, 2005, the Prime Minister chaired a tripartite meeting between the Centre, the Assam government and the AASU to review the implementation of the Assam Accord. This meeting came 16 years after the previous review meeting at the Prime Minister's level. The minutes of the meeting tabled in the Assembly reveal that the Prime Minister promised another meeting in the same financial year (2005-06). But, Bhattacharyya pointed out, more than five years had passed and the Prime Minister had not yet called another review meeting. “The Central government has never been sincere in keeping its commitment as far as implementation of the Assam Accord is concerned,” he said. He also pointed out that several deadlines for sealing the India-Bangladesh border had been missed and every year the State government set a new deadline. “The porous Assam-Bangladesh border is not just a threat to Assam. It poses a grave threat to national security. Bangladeshi infiltrators, ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence] agents and HUJI [Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami] cadre use Assam as a transit camp. It is time the government woke up to the problem,” he said.

In the past two and a half decades, the detection and deportation of foreigners have become complicated and got mired in legal battles. Such complications are rooted in the different historical backgrounds of the immigrants. Indigenous Bengali-speaking Hindus and Muslims from East Bengal who settled in Assam during pre-Partition days and Bengali-speaking Hindus and Muslims who migrated from erstwhile East Pakistan in different streams are to be treated as Indian citizens in accordance with the Indira-Mujib agreement. All Bengali-speaking illegal migrants from Bangladesh who crossed the porous border after March 25, 1971, are liable to have their names deleted from voters lists and be expelled in accordance with the Assam Accord. The BJP is against the expulsion of the post-1971 Hindu immigrants and wants them to be accorded refugee status. All other political parties, including AASU and student and youth bodies like the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP), want all immigrants who have come in after March 25, 1971, to be expelled.

Now, it is not easy to distinguish, culturally and linguistically, between the pre-1971 immigrants and the post-1971 settlers as they all speak the same dialect, though most pre-1971 Muslim immigrants of the Brahmaputra valley have adopted the Assamese language and sent their children to Assamese-medium schools. Some of them have also immensely contributed to Assamese literature. The Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act, enacted two years before the signing of the Assam Accord in the aftermath of the Nellie killings, had its roots in the allegations of deportation of immigrants without trial and harassment of Indian citizens in the name of detection of illegal settlers. Those who pushed for it argued that before the promulgation of the Act, as many as 210,446 Muslims had been driven out of Assam between 1952 and 1971 without trial and without being given an opportunity to defend their status. They also alleged that 192,339 people had been deported from the State between 1972 and 1983 in a similar manner.

The AGP and AASU demanded its repeal on the grounds that it hampered the implementation of the Assam Accord, especially in the detection and deportation of illegal settlers, and actually protected illegal immigrants. They also argued that the Act was discriminatory as it was applicable only in Assam, while in the rest of the country infiltrators were detected and deported under the Foreigners Act, 1946. The Illegal Migrants Act put the onus of proving an allegation of illegal immigration on the prosecution; the Foreigners Act puts it on the accused. On July 12, 2005, the Supreme Court struck down the Illegal Migrants Act, acting on a petition filed by former AASU president Sarbananda Sonowal. Sonowal, a former Lok Sabha member and at present a general secretary of the AGP, had moved the apex court at the behest of AASU.

The scrapping of the Act, however, did not seem to make much of a difference. Between January 1, 2001, and June 31, 2010, altogether 14,586 people were identified as foreigners in the State. Only 199 of them were deported as of May 31, 2010; 105 of them, incidentally, were expelled after the Act was scrapped. Interestingly, not a single foreigner detected under the Foreigners Act was expelled in 2007; one foreigner was expelled in 2006 and 10 in 2005. The cold fact is that about Rs.50 crore was spent between 2000 and 2010 in running the Foreigners' Tribunals. Of the 36 Foreigners' Tribunals, 32 are functioning. Eleven tribunals are run by members of other tribunals. As of February, 2,89,690 cases were pending before the tribunals.

A consensus among political parties and student and youth organisations, including AASU, on updating of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) 1951 by including names that appear in the 1971 voters lists and those of their descendents kindled hopes, for a while, for a permanent solution to the foreigners issue. However, an incident of police firing on July 21 on a demonstration by the All Assam Minority Students Union (AAMSU) over anomalies in the NRC form turned violent; four people died and about 50 were injured in Barpeta town in Lower Assam. The incident highlighted the absence of consensus on a mechanism to update the NRC. The Assam government immediately suspended work on the pilot projects of updating the NRC in two revenue circles, Barpeta and Chaygaon. The AGP, AASU and the BJP criticised the move and demanded resumption of the work. There were flaws in the NRC application form, AAMSU alleged; the Assam government, in response, promised to “simplify” the form in consultation with all political parties and other organisations. However, AASU insists that there is no flaw in the form and sees the controversy as a conspiracy to delay the updating work in order to include names of illegal immigrants.

Clause 6 of the accord promises that constitutional, legislative and administrative safeguards, as may be appropriate, shall be provided to protect, preserve and promote the cultural, social and linguistic identity and heritage of the Assamese people. However, a consensus definition of Assamese people could not be found in the past 25 years. AASU has been demanding 100 per cent reservation in the Assembly, barring the seats reserved for Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe candidates, and the right over land for Assamese people. It believes that only such a step can allay the fears of the Assamese people of losing political power to infiltrators. In 2006, the State government constituted a Committee of Ministers to examine issues relating to the implementation of this clause, including the definition of Assamese people. The committee has not yet made up its mind.

The biggest challenge before the present AASU leadership is to draw lessons from the six-year anti-foreigners agitation and take into account the socio-political changes that have taken place in the past 25 years while arriving at a definition for Assamese people. It will not be easy, particularly in the backdrop of the identity-based autonomy movements of various tribal groups. The Bodos and the Karbis have revived their statehood demands, while other tribes such as the Rabhas, the Tiwas and the Mising seek upgraded autonomous councils under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution. Six communities – the Koch-Rajbangshis, the Tai-Ahoms, the tea-tribes, the Morans, the Mataks and the Chutias – want Scheduled Tribe status. The Assam Accord promised to protect the tribal belt and blocks from encroachment, but the government has failed to implement the relevant provisions under Clause 10.

2) Frontline view on Gen. Than Shwe's visit Linky

The most important agreement signed during the Than Shwe visit was the one on mutual legal assistance. Under the agreement, members of Indian insurgent groups held in Myanmar can be deported to India to face trial. Many separatist fighters wanted in India are currently in custody in Myanmar.
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The earlier military regime under Gen. Ne Win had kept both India and China at arm's length. The Myanmarese elite have always been suspicious of the motives of the two big neighbours. But after the events of 1988 and the subsequent warming of Sino-Myanmarese ties, northern Myanmar was opened up to Chinese trade in a big way by the mid-1990s. India feared that the Chinese influence in Myanmar was spreading by the day.
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India's “Look East” strategy had started under the P.V. Narasimha Rao-led Congress government but it was the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government that took the first concrete steps to implement it. Normalising relations with Myanmar was seen as essential for India to leverage its geopolitical proximity to the South-East Asian region. The then Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh started the process by making two visits to Myanmar in 2001 and 2002. The first visit was to inaugurate the India-Myanmar Friendship Road, and the second was to start talks on building the ambitious Trans-Asia highway project. High-level military contacts started in 2000 when the Indian Army chief met with his Myanmarese counterpart. India has since started supplying Myanmar limited amounts of weaponry, and providing training to military personnel from that country. Myanmar was crucial to the Indian government in view of the BIMST-EC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation) and the Kunming Initiative, an effort involving India, China, Myanmar and Bangladesh. These developments took place although India's Defence Minister at the time, George Fernandes, was a vocal supporter of the Myanmarese democracy movement. The residence of the Minister was for a long time the unofficial headquarters of exiled student activists from Myanmar who had spearheaded the movement for the restoration of democracy.
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The agreements signed between the two countries coincided with the Obama administration's renewal of sanctions against Myanmar.

3) From SATP: Bheda act of the Sama, Dana, Bheda, Dand routine -- borrowing Col. Hariharan's words.

Quoting the insiders of the Unified Communist party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M), Kantipuronline reports that the two groups led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai will spur heated discussions in the upcoming Central Committee of the party. The Central Committee (CC) meeting scheduled for August 10 has been postponed to August 11 on the ground that more time is needed for completing preparations for the event. Both factions of the leaders supporting Chairman Prachanda and Vice Chairman Baburam Bhattarai are impatient to “vent their ire” against each other. “The meeting is likely witness heated discussions and is also expected to thrash out several crucial issues,” said a Maoist leader. Both Dahal and Bhattarai have serious disagreements over several crucial issues pertaining to internal party politics, Government formation and the peace process. Further, UCPN-M spokesperson Dina Nath Sharma said, on August 10, his party chairman and Prime Ministerial candidate Prachanda is ready to withdraw his candidacy for the Prime Minister provided other parties agreed to amend the Interim Constitution to revive the system of consensus Government, reports Nepal News.

Seems like a last-gasp move by prachanda to forestall Baburam Bhattarai's "inevitable" rise.