Response to Reader: the Assam question

Mike had asked:

On this present post, could you clarify what is meant when 2018 is given as the time-line for a new separatist movement. What are the reasons, and clarification on the same will be appreciated.

Response: At the risk of being politically incorrect, let me try to answer this as brutally and as honestly as I can.

From the 2001 Census data, the Sachar Committee (Linky) reports that the Muslim population of the state of Assam is 30.9% (p. 193). Assam has 27 administrative districts. On p. 51 and p. 296, the Sachar Committee also reports that six of those districts have 50-75% of the population coming from one religion, Islam. These are Dhubri - 74.3%, Barpeta - 59.4%, Hailakandi - 57.6%, Goalpara - 53.7%, Karimganj - 52.3%, Nagaon - 51%. Apart from Jammu and Kashmir, this is by far the biggest fraction of administrative districts with >50% Muslim population in India. There are 10 such districts in all of India, 1 each from Kerala, Bihar and West Bengal, along with Lakshadweep. Four more districts in Assam have >25% but less than 50% population (Marigaon at 47.6%, Bongaigaon at 38.5%, Cachar at 36.1% and Darrang at 35.5%).

These numbers are only increasing, because of sustained illegal immigration from Bangladesh, both because of economic reasons as well as lebensraum issues. Bangladesh will continue to face serious ecological problems as global warming will continue to cause havoc on the riverine/delta terrain. Illegal immigration is not a problem faced by Assam alone; three of West Bengal's districts (Murshidabad, Malda and Uttar Dinajpur) that border Bangladesh have Muslim populations that have been skewing at a bizarre rate. (Even Delhi's population has been skewing at a bizarre rate that noone has tried to seriously understand why astronomical numbers have become the norm for Delhi's growth rate.) Even if one accounts for the geographical proximity and the Partition movement of populations, the increases cannot be explained coherently, but by using the magical wand of illegal immigration. We have already had some serious adverse possession issues between India and Bangladesh (in Muktapur, Pyrdiwah, among other places). There is massive collusion on the part of all the political parties in the state including Asom Gana Parishad and Indian National Congress for the sake of short-term electoral gains. The Assam Accord initially necessitated identifying those immigrants to Assam after 1947-48 as illegal and returning them to Bangladesh. Implementing these iron-clad conditions were extremely difficult, hence the date was switched to December 1971 for the sake of convenience and to seal the Assam Accord quickly. The National Register of Citizens (NRC) update process which is the key to implementing the Assam Accord has been bungling from one disaster to another, all at the behest of the various political parties and with the burden of proving that someone is an illegal immigrant falling at the foot of the accuser (and not the accused). While there may be serious social justice-related debating on whether the accuser should prove the crime or the accused should prove his non-culpability, the bottomline is that the already lethargic NRC update process has NOT taken off.

Further, Figure 3.3 on p. 63 of the Sachar Committee Report also shows that Assam is a state with a moderate TFR for the Muslim population (> 3.0 Total Fertility Rate, but <= 4.0). What this means is that the demography of Assam is changing, and is changing rapidly. The precarious nature of the border state means that many people openly as well as not-so-openly believe that the Indian experience of religious/communal riots and a call for Partition preceded by a call for Direct Action (a terminology that originated with the Communist movement and is in short a call for armed insurrection) could be replicated. Frantic calls for a United Banga-assam on the part of notable Bangladeshi Imams such as Maulana Bhasani, and founding fathers such as Mohammed Ali Jinnah, Hussein Shaheed Suhrawardy, etc., in the past (and the continued honoring of such people across the spectrum even today) only makes people across the border more nervous. We already see signs of an assertive Muslim community in Assam with the AIUDF under Maulana Badruddin Ajmal breaking ranks with both the INC as well as the AGP. While Muslim assertion per se is not a worry (and is actually welcome), what worries people are indicators/signs of a neo-Partition. Whether the signs that people see on the ground are actually warning bells or just the manifestation of ghost in the eyes of a seriously mauled set of peoples is something that time will tell. The 2018 figure is the predicted figure for when the demographic/religious divide will lead to calls for reappraisal of the Partition question.

Updates (December 14, 2010)

1) NDFB: On George Boro's arrest: Linky

Top NDFB (anti-talk) leader B Jwangkhang alias George Boro, a prime accused in the October 30, 2008 serial blasts who was detained in Aizawl by a joint team of Assam Rifles and Information Bureau on Friday, was brought to Guwahati this morning (December 12).

Then: Linky

Self-styled deputy commander-in-chief of banned NDFB B Jwangkhang alias George Boro and his body guard S Baglari was today produced before the Court of Special Divisional Judicial Magistrate, Kamrup where the duo was remanded to 14 days police custody. The custody was permitted on the strength of Basistha police station case number 439/10, which relates to an extortion demand of Rs 20 lakh. The money was demanded from Jatin Kalita, a city-based business by a caller who had identified himself as a platoon commander of the banned outfit. B Jwangkhang is one of the accused in the case, the FIR related to which was filed on August 27 this year with the Basistha police station.

Telegraph adds: Linky

Boro’s family, including his mother Nilima Boro, were present on the court premises. Boro who hails from Guduligaon in Baksa district did his Masters in English from Pune University before joining the NDFB in 2005.

2) ULFA talks: Linky

The 28 battalion of United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) has extended its full support to the proposed peace talk between the ULFA and the Centre. Self-styled commander of the battalion, Bijoy Chinese alias Bijoy Das, in a statement issued to the press, favoured peaceful solution to the three-decade-old conflicts through dialogue. Chinese reiterated that his battalion would only extend direct cooperation to the proposed talks if it would be held in a conducive and honourable atmosphere.
...
It may be recalled that the self-styled deputy commander of the 28th Battalion of the ULFA, Lieutenant Haren Phukan also issued a similar statement a few days back.

3) What are they going to do about GNLA now?: Linky

The fledgling Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) has started to bare its fangs and has sent an extortion demand to a sitting Garo Hills legislator yesterday. Sources said a Garo Hills legislator received a call from a person identifying himself as a GNLA cadre on Sunday and demanded Rs 50 lakh. “The legislator is obviously in a state of shock and is consulting his party men,” said the sources.
...
Meanwhile, sources said most of the Garo Hills legislators are apprehensive of travelling in the interior parts of Garo Hills districts fearing for their safety. They say the present government has failed to maintain law and order in Garo Hills by being unable to crackdown on GNLA, still a group of riff-raff.

4) PC visit to Manipur: Linky

He will then head for Churachandpur district where he will visit the designated camps of the 19 Kuki militant outfits, which signed the suspension of operations. The construction of the camps is almost complete and the militants have moved into them. The home minister’s visit to the designated camps is expected to herald the start of a political dialogue that the 19 Kuki militant groups are pressing for. The have been demanding the creation of a Kuki homeland (state) under the purview of the Constitution. Chidambaram is expected to get first hand information about the aspirations of the Kuki groups when he meets them.

5) NC Hills scam: Linky

The role of former Governor of Assam Lt Gen (Retd) Ajai Singh in the financial scam in North Cachar Hills Autonomous Council has come under scanner as the records recovered during investigations by different agencies proved that he had given orders for payments directly and in one case he violated the financial rules by issuing an instruction directly to a bank manager. In one of the letters written by the Additional Secretary to the Governor, a bank manager was instructed to honour four drafts and official sources pointed out that there was no reason for the Governor to get involved in such a case and issue orders directly to a bank.
...
The special audit report of the AG also pointed out that expenditures amounting to around Rs 8 crore for special projects under the Agriculture Department of the Council could not be audited as the records relating to the projects were taken away by the Additional Secretary to the Governor. Those, along with some other records, were retained by the Governor’s secretariat and the same could not be audited during the special audit carried out by the office of the AG as per the instructions of the Central and State Governments and no one is sure where the money was spent. It is also alleged that RH Khan, one of the main accused in the financial scam, was allowed to use the helicopter allotted for the use of the Governor on several occasions and “security threat” was cited as the reason for the same.

Meanwhile it is rhetoric time: Linky

Former Assam Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta today said that the State Government was not cooperating with the Enforcement Directorate in the money laundering case against DHD-J leaders Niranjan Hojai and Jewel Garlosa in order to hush up the Rs 1,000-crore NC Hills scam.

6) NRC update: Linky

The amendments proposed are in respect of inclusion of an additional section 5 (B) in the Citizenship Act that provides protection to a displaced person who took shelter in India any time due to civil and religious disturbances from Bangladesh and Pakistan. The amendment, he added to say, is also being sought in regard to section 2 of Foreigners’ Act of 1946 to accommodate a displaced person as a citizen of India. The Supreme Court, it is to be recalled, while scrapping the IM(DT) Act has ruled that action against illegal foreigners could be carried out under Foreigners’ Act of 1946, Foreigners’ Tribunals of 1964 and Immigrant Expulsion Act of 1950. Nishitendu Chowdhury pointing out at the declining Hindu population in Bangladesh expressed his grave concern, calling it a subtle ethnic – cleansing, not in any way different from that of Cyprus where the dominant Greeks are being gradually and systematically swamped by invading Turks. “If this trend continues,” he apprehended, by 2050, Hindu population would be wiped out in Bangladesh. In 1961, Hindu population in Bangladesh was 18.5 per cent which has come down to nine per cent only in 2010, according to the UNDP.
...
Prof Partha Sarathi Chanda articulating his views described the plight of Bengali Hindus in Assam as ‘of serious concern’ as many Hindus, uprooted from Bangladesh, and even with valid documents have been either sent to detention centres or pushed back to the other side of the fence. He cautioned if the Centre and State remained indifferent to the problem, a repeat of 1947 like situation could not be ruled out. He at the same time dubbed the exercises by Foreigners’ Tribunals, formed at the cost of huge public exchequer, as futile. Advocate Anil Chandra Dey of Silchar Bar called for immediate halt to the harassment of Hindus.

7) Crazyyy addiction: Linky

A source in New Bongaigaon said apart from taking drugs, sleeping tablets and cough syrups, youths widely inhale adhesives like dendrite and quick fix. There are at least 4,000 drug addicts in Bongaigaon district but it is not known how many youths and minors, including girls, are addicted to dendrite and quick fix, the source said. Ajoy Bose, the secretary of Pragati Sangha, an NGO based at Bhaolaguri near New Bongaigaon Railway Station, said they have been campaigning against drug abuse by creating awareness and motivating youths to discard drugs.

8) Some job for Dato Seri Samy Vellu: Linky

Samy Vellu (74), until recently president of the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), will be Malaysia's Special Envoy to India and South Asia for Infrastructure with effect from New Year's Day 2011. Announcing his appointment, while releasing his biography at a function in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak praised Samy Vellu for his “connection” with the South Asian countries. “Many Malaysian companies will benefit from his role as a Special Envoy on Infrastructure,” said Mr. Najib. Mr. Samy Vellu has held infrastructure-related portfolio in successive Cabinets for 24 years, besides presiding over the MIC for 31 years. Mr. Samy Vellu would have an office in the Prime Minister's Department and report directly to Mr. Najib.

9) SATP declares:

The Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) declared Sindhupalchowk, Rasuwa and certain parts of Nuwakot Districts as Helmu autonomous region on December 13, reports Kantipuronline. UCPN-M leader Posta Bahadur Bogati made the announcement amid a function at Helambu in Sindhupalchowk. He added the region will be part of the party’s Tamsaling autonomous state. “The declaration is a protest amidst the uncertainty over whether or not the new statute will be drafted,” said Bogati. Tamsaling region in-charge Agni Sapkota said the autonomous state was declared in order to establish the right to autonomy and self-determination. As reported earlier, the UCPN-M has declared 11 autonomous regions before.

Updates (December 12, 2010)

1) NDFB key catch: Linky

Security forces have apprehended the self-styled deputy commander-in-chief of the anti-talks faction of National Democratic Front of Boroland (NDFB) George Boro alias John alias B. Jwangkhang, a key accused in the October 30, 2008 serial blasts, from Mizoram. The most wanted NDFB leader, who hails from Guduligaon in Baksa district, has been named in the chargesheet filed by the CBI in connection with the serial blasts. A cash reward had been announced for information leading to his arrest.
...
Though an official source in Mizoram said he was nabbed by AR from Indo-Bangladesh border on Wednesday night, another source close to NDFB claimed that Boro was picked up from a hotel in Aizawl by AR troops at around 7.30 pm yesterday. Following the arrest of Ranjan Daimary in May this year, George Boro along with two other leaders of the outfit — Rajen Goyari alias Rifikhang and Arun Borgoyary alias Dinthilang — were trying to regroup the anti-talks faction of the NDFB.
...
The “arrest” is being seen as part of the initiative to get things moving on the talks front. “In such a situation the arrest was necessary as that would bring him to jail where he can discuss the nittygritty with his leader Ranjan Daimary as had happened with the Ulfa leadership who have held discussions among themselves and also with government officials within the jail on how to take talks move forward,” the source said. George’s arrest is the latest in line of senior militant leaders getting nabbed from along the Indo-Bangla border starting with Ulfa chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa last year and Daimary this year.

2) Breakway faction of GNLA: Linky

Four militants of the breakaway faction of the Garo National Liberation Army, including its leader, were killed during an encounter with police in East Garo Hills district today. Five militants were arrested while at least one managed to escape with a bullet injury.
...
However, while Jokin Momin, the leader of the group, was being arrested along with five others, another group of at least four suspected militants of the breakaway faction arrived at the spot in an auto-rickshaw and started firing indiscriminately. Momin, who was with the GNLA during its formation, had also conducted operations against the police in the past. A few weeks ago, he and a few other cadres deserted the GNLA after they were unhappy with the style of functioning of the outfit’s chairman, Champion Sangma, and the commander-in-chief, Sohan D. Shira. Police sources said the breakaway group of the outfit was in the process of giving a name to the group after procuring arms from an Assam-based militant group.

3) DHD pro-talks faction: Linky

The pro-talks faction of the DHD met the Centre’s interlocutor for peace talks, P.C. Haldar, in New Delhi today on the demand to upgrade their district into “a mini state within a state”. Nunisa today said over the phone that his team would reiterate its demand for the amalgamation of the Dimasa-inhabited areas in the Assam districts of Cachar, Nagaon and Karbi Anglong and also in some portions of Dimapur
...
The army and the police, engaged in a combing drive in the district to trace the nine persons who were abducted from three places since Saturday, are yet to make any breakthrough. Significantly those kidnapped were the relatives of the Dima National Democratic Front (DNDF) chief Bihari Dimasa and its army commander Lailung Dimasa. Sources in Dima Hasao said such the abductions were masterminded by the outfits opposed to DNDF in a retaliatory move. DNDF chief Bihari Dimasa left the DHD (Jewel) group in a huff, protesting against the ceasefire agreement between the Jewel Gorlosa group and the state government.

4) ULFA talks: Linky

Leaders of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), who are in favour of talks with the government, are trying to get in touch with the members of the outfit camping in Myanmar to persuade them to join the proposed peace process. A few pro-talk members of the ULFA also reportedly went to Myanmar with the knowledge of the government, highly placed security sources said. Sources told The Assam Tribune that the phase wise release of the senior leaders of the ULFA on bail created a major impact among the rank and file of the outfit and if the peace process starts as expected, a majority of the members of the outfit are expected to join the process. Sources said that apart from Jiban Moran and Bijoy Chinese, the other senior leaders of the ULFA, who are yet to express desire to join the peace process, include Antu Chowdang, Drishti Rajkhowa and Nayan Medhi. Antu was in Bangladesh till recently but his whereabout is not known now.
...
However, as per intelligence inputs, the cadres of the ULFA in Myanmar are in a confused state of mind as they are still not sure whether to follow the pro talk members or the commander-in-chief Paresh Baruah, who is still maintaining a hard line on the issue of talks with the Government. The leaders having the responsibility of looking after the camps are also not keen on sending cadres to Assam as several of them surrendered after they were sent back to the state with specific tasks.

5) BD closer to Tripura: Linky

The Bangladesh visa office, started here in 1973 within two years of the country’s emergence as a sovereign nation, is all set to be upgraded to a deputy high commission. The issue had cropped up during the two-day visit of Bangladesh external affairs minister Dipu Moni on November 10-11 and she had promised to look into the matter but a decision in principle has already been taken.

Sentinel adds: Linky

Mondal said Bangladesh also expected to increase its volume of export to Tripura to Rs 300 crore during the current financial year. He said that in 2007-08, Bangladesh had exported goods worth Rs 84.15 crore to Tripura and imported commodities worth Rs 1.51 crore from the State. Northeastern states like Tripura, Meghalaya and Assam export commodities like limestone, tea, machine parts, fruit and coal to Bangladesh and import cement, stone chips, bricks, Hilsa fish, dry fish, edible oils, readymade garments and furniture from the country.

All the while, there is the Tin Bigha footbridge issue: Linky

Political parties cutting across their affiliations have opposed the construction of an elevated footbridge over the Tin Bigha corridor for which the Centre has given the go-ahead. The corridor connects the Bangladeshi enclave of Angrapota-Dahagram with the mainland.
...
He said the people of the area would not tolerate the Bangladeshis using the Tin Bigha corridor, while the Indians used the footbridge. “We are also going to oppose the proposal of keeping the corridor open for 24 hours,” he said. At present, the corridor remains open from 6am to 6pm.

Meanwhile, BKZ builds her own bridges: Linky

Opposition leader Khaleda Zia is going on a six-day tour to China from December 18. "BNP chairperson will be visiting at Chinese Communist party central committee's invitation," Khaleda's press secretary Maruf Kamal Khan told bdnews24.com on Friday. "She will be staying there as a state guest." She will be meeting Communist Party central committee members on December 19, 20 and 21. "They will discuss issues of common bilateral and regional interests," Maruf Khan said. Khaleda is scheduled to return December 23. Her last tour to China was in 2006 as the prime minister.

6) The travails of the NRC update: Linky

Dispur has made more than a “few changes” in the application form one has to fill up and submit to get enlisted in the National Register of Citizens in a bid to make the process “simple and convenient”. Along with the changes in the form (see chart), the Bhumidhar Barman-headed cabinet sub-committee, which was set up to make the process simple, has included ration card as a document of proof but with a rider that it has to be for the period upto March 24, 1971.
...
Sources today said the “simplified” forms had been circulated to AAMSU and All Assam Students Union (AASU) a couple of days ago for their response by December 13. Though the cabinet sub-committee is understood to have met the concerns of all sections, especially AASU and AAMSU, the AASU might take some time to respond given its stand that “change in the form will only help illegal Bangladeshis to get enlisted in the NRC”. “Dropping the place of birth could be a ticklish issue because the objective of updating the NRC was to ensure that only Indians got included. Certain quarters may see the simplification of the process as dilution of the process,” a source said.

More on the travails: Linky

Dispur appears to have got into a damage-control mode after the furore over dropping of the column on place of birth in the simplified National Register of Citizens (NRC) application form with chief minister Tarun Gogoi today saying that no final decision had been taken. The AASU and the BJP have flayed the government for tinkering with the form on the ground that it would only help illegal Bangladeshis get enlisted in the NRC which is being updated. Even the Mujammil Haq group of AAMSU has criticised the government saying it should retain the place of birth clause.

7) It is not only Nepal that acquiesced: Linky

"As of now, our position is not to attend the ceremony," Sri Lankan Media Minister Keheliya Rambukwella told reporters. "We are not the only country that took up that position, there are lots of countries that are not attending the event," he said.

WSJ adds: Linky

One diplomat from Sri Lanka initially told The Wall Street Journal that its embassy in Oslo was sure to send someone "if nobody had a cold," but later said that no one would attend, saying: "We are a small country and China is now our friend."

8) AFSPA in Manipur: Linky

He said his government would recommend withdrawal of the act to the Centre once the state forces could deal with the situation. “The state government does not want to keep this act even for a second. It is because of this it defied strong instructions from the Centre and withdrew the act from the Imphal Municipal limit in 2004. But the situation in the rest of the state is not conducive to withdrawal of the act entirely,” Ibobi Singh said while addressing a Congress conference at Thangmeiband Assembly constituency here.

9) Meanwhile in Nepal: Linky

Continuing their policy of obstructing Indian investors, Nepal’s former Maoist guerrillas on Saturday trained their guns on yet another Indo-Nepal joint venture, threatening to bring it to a halt. The Government of Nepal had awarded the licence to Green Ventures Pvt Ltd, founded by IIT alumnus KR Krishnan, along with his Nepali partner, to survey the 120-MW Likhu 4 hydropower project that is sprawled over two districts in eastern Nepal, Okhaldhunga and Ramechhap.

The government is expected to ink a fresh agreement with Green Ventures, giving it the go-ahead to develop the project. However, on the eve of the new contract, the Ramechhap wing of the Maoists, who are now the largest party in parliament, issued six demands on Saturday, warning they would stop the project if these were not fulfilled. A statement signed by “Kushal”, who called himself the secretary of the Maoists’ district committee, said the project went against the right of locals to their own natural resources. The former rebels are demanding that residents be given five per cent of the shares free and another 20 per cent be reserved for local participation. The districts should also be paid royalty and the power generated would first have to be given to the two districts at the cheapest tariff. Only the surplus power can be sold outside. The rebels are also demanding jobs for locals as well as infrastructure development in the areas of health, education, transport, drinking water supply and irrigation. The fresh threat comes after the Maoists last month produced a hit list of hydropower companies, of which over a dozen were Indian companies and JVs.

Northeast and other updates (November 28, 2010)

1) Book review: When Churchill starved India Linky

Churchill’s racism toward Indians, especially Hindus, is no longer news, such has been the tide of revisionist thinking that began with the historian John Charmley’s 1993 book Churchill: The end of glory – A Political Biography. Nevertheless, the scale of British perfidy towards the 400 million people of India, and the scale of the famine that befell Bengal in 1943, are recounted by Mukerjee with such blistering coolness that one is left reeling. The fact that today, these things should be so badly forgotten, or treated as a surprising revelation, also gives pause for thought.

India’s job in the 1940s, as far as the British were concerned, was to ward off the Soviets from Afghanistan, to join in the defeat of the Germans in the Middle East and Africa, and, after Pearl Harbour, to join in the defeat of the Japanese. But there was another job Britain did, too: it removed India’s best troops from India, so that no nationalist mutiny there could be successful. Added to this, as Mukerjee makes clear, the colony’s entire output of timber, woollen textiles and leather goods, as well as three quarters of its steel and cement, were diverted to the defence of the British Empire. India was, next to Britain, the largest contributor to the Empire’s war.

Minutes from Britain’s War Cabinet in February 1940 record that Churchill regarded the ‘feud’ between Hindus and Muslims ‘as the bulwark of British rule in India’. The more Britain built up IOUs to India, the more Churchill came to favour partitioning India and creating Pakistan. The liberal-leaning Conservative elder statesman Leopold Amery (who had drafted the 1917 Balfour Declaration promising Jews a homeland in Palestine) was, as Churchill’s secretary of state for India, more cautious than his boss. On the other hand, Lord Cherwell, the Anglophile German scientist and War Cabinet member F A Lindemann, could massage any statistic to reinforce Churchill in the view that emaciated Indians were in fact thoroughly greedy in asking for food supplies (indeed, Cherwell also singled out the working-class areas of Dresden for bombing with incendiaries). But even Field Marshall Archibald Wavell, who became viceroy at the end of October 1943 and who often opposed Churchill’s policy of starving the Indians, at the same time felt that they had reached, at best, the ‘tiresome’ age of adolescence. Even if, as a one-time friend of Lawrence of Arabia, he could also see the merit of supporting what for him were martial Muslims over conniving and more populous Hindus.

2) Raju Barua bail: Linky

Barua was released from Central Jail in Guwahati at 11.30am after being granted bail in two TADA cases and a CBI case. A festive atmosphere gripped Barua’s native village when he reached there around 1pm.
...
Barua told reporters that Ulfa wanted talks to be held with full dignity and honour. “We will not hold talks by keeping people in the dark.” He said they wanted Ulfa commander-in-chief Paresh Barua and general secretary Anup Chetia to join the peace process.

3) Rail and road connectivity: Linky

The Ministry of Railways has an investment plan of over Rs 17,000 crore in different projects in the North-east, which are scheduled for completion by 2015. The Central Government has also approved augmentation of foodgrain storage capacity in the region by 5.25 lakh tonnes, more than doubling the existing storage capacity of 4.58 lakh tonnes. On the Railway Ministry’s investment plan of more than Rs 17,000 crore in projects in the region to be completed by 2015, it was assured that those projects would be taken up as per schedule and funding would not be a constraint. On the road sector, it was emphasized that NH-44, NH-53 and NH-39 would be taken up on priority and efforts would be made to speed up work, including maintenance, before the onset of the next monsoon. The need for regular maintenance of the roads, particularly by BRO, was also stressed.

Sentinel adds: Linky

“The Ministry of Railways has an investment plan of more than Rs 17,000 crore in projects to be completed by 2015. Eleven new line projects, three gauge conversion projects and one doubling project are in progress. These projects will be taken up as per schedule and funding will not be a problem. Other issues will be taken up by the ministries and the State governments concerned at the earliest,” he said.

4) The former Chief Secretary of Assam writes on the Look-East Policy and Burma: Linky

Considerable progress has been recorded in trade between India and the ASEAN countries in the past few years. The volume has risen from US $40 billion in 2007-08 to US $44 billion in 2009-10. A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was signed between India and the ASEAN countries in Bangkok on August 13, 2009. It is proposed to increase the trade volume to US $60 billion in seven years and to reduce the tariff rates drastically.
...
It is appropriate that the LEP first touched Myanmar. Myanmar has a common border of 1643 km with four of India’s States, namely, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. For trade with China and the Southeast Asian countries by the land route, all movement has to be through Myanmar. It is true that Myanmar itself is poor. It does not have as much manufactured goods to offer as the other Southeast Asian countries. But it has vast natural resources which are yet to be tapped. In recent years the volume of trade between India and Myanmar has gone up to US $1.2 billions. At present India’s imports include pulses, wood and wood products, fruits and nuts, natural rubber and paper and paper pulp. India exports drugs and pharmaceutical products, machinery and instruments, steel and transport equipments. Moreover, Myanmar’s geo-strategic location cannot be ignored. That is why India is building the trans-Asian railway network through Myanmar to Singapore. The Asian road highway is also under construction through Myanmar. The ultimate idea is to link up the Indian ocean with south China sea. Besides, India has taken up several infrastructure projects in Myanmar. The Tatas are setting up a truck-manufacturing plant at Magway, the ESSAR group is joining in the attempt to build the multi-model Kaladan transport project, the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation will build the Tamanthi power project, and GOI will help Myanmar to build a new port at Sittwe.

All this effort to achieve closer Indo-Myanmarese relations reflected India’s present pragmatism in matters relating to foreign policy. It may be recalled that writing about India’s foreign policy in the Asian context, the former Indian Foreign Secretary, JN Dixit, had suggested that our trade relations with Myanmar should be normalized irrespective of the government that might be in power there because that country is geo-strategically important to India. Such close cooperation with Myanmar is also necessary in order that India may curb smuggling, border crimes, drug movement and insurgency. Dixit, however, never envisaged the LEP although he had devoted three chapters of his book to India’s relations with the countries of Asia.

India is now following a different policy towards the autocratic junta which controls Myanmar while at the same time supporting the world community’s effort towards assisting the Nobel Laureate Aung San Su Ki’s fight for democracy in her country. This is realpolitik. It is in pursuance of this realpolitik that India and Myanmar have exchanged high-level visits in recent times. The most important visit perhaps is that of the Myanmarese senior General Than Shwe, who as the “Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council of Myanmar” heads the autocratic government of that country. During his discussion with the Indian Prime Minister on July 27, 2010 India and Myanmar agreed on “close co-operation between the security forces of the two countries in tackling the pernicious problem of terrorism”. Arrangements were also finalized for Indian participation in critical areas like medical science, education, telecom services and in major projects and manufacturing industries.

5) NSCN-K and NSCN-IM peace moves: Linky

The National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN-IM) has backed out of the ongoing Naga reconciliation meet at Chiang Mai, Thailand, providing yet another hiccup to the peace process. The meeting, under the aegis of Forum for Naga Reconciliation and Quakers from the UK, began at Chiang Mai yesterday. Representatives of the Government of the People’s Republic of Nagaland/National Socialist Council of Nagaland (GPRN/NSCN), formerly known as NSCN (Khaplang), and Federal Government of Nagaland (Singnyu faction) are attending in the absence of representatives from NSCN (Isak-Muivah).

Meanwhile, Linky

All medical, paramedical as well as fourth grade staff of Haflong Civil Hospital staged a sit-in in front of the Deputy Commissioner’s office on Saturday demanding immediate arrangement of security in the backdrop of extortion threat, allegedly by the NSCN, asking all the staff to pay 24 per cent of their salary per month to the outfit. Dr Pradip Kumar Baruah, Superintendent of the Civil Hospital, told The Sentinel over telephone from Haflong on Saturday that panic-stricken staff had no alternative but to seek intervention of the administration. Already two doctors had left Haflong and others were trying to manage transfer, added Dr Baruah, who himself had received an extortion note on November 19. Dr Baruah said, the administration had provided police security in the hospital campus, but about 200 staff were under constant mental pressure. The medical service in the 100-bed hospital has been badly been affected. It is to be noted that Dr Nityananda Naiding of the Civil Hospital had been abducted by local miscreants from his official quarters on October 30, and he was released on the same day allegedly after making a hefty ransom. Babul Haflongbar, who was the kingpin in the abduction, was picked up by Haflong police from Dimapur, and he admitted that he had kidnapped Dr Naiding with the help of Naga miscreants.

And, Linky

A Naga separatist group has started a parallel census of non-Nagas in Dimapur district since the first week of November even as the state government is gearing up for the second phase of Census 2011. Sources said the NSCN (K) which is now known as “GPRN/NSCN” (Government of the People’s Republic of Nagaland/National Socialist Council of Nagaland) had taken this unauthorised and illegal headcount to identify and record the number of non-Naga households. A similar exercise had been conducted by the Isak-Muivah faction of the NSCN for the past couple of years in Naga-inhabited areas. State government officials said they did not know anything about the parallel census.

6) Hindu Bengalis in Assam: Linky

Altogether 12 organisations representing the Hindu Bengalis in Assam have moved President Pratibha Patil seeking her intervention to stop the alleged harassment of genuine Indian citizens by the state government in the name of detection and deportation of illegal foreigners. The co-ordination committee of the Hindu Bengali Organisations of Assam today said it had submitted a memorandum to the President appealing that the Hindu Bengalis of Assam should be identified as “political sufferers of and victims of Partition of the two-nation theory” and should be protected from harassment According to them, there are nearly 65 lakh Hindu Bengalis in the state who were separated during Partition.

...
The committee said the Centre had provided protection to the Hindu migrants from West Pakistan to the states of Gujarat and Rajasthan by making appropriate legal provisions in 2004 and the state governments in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Tripura and West Bengal were patronising the Hindu migrants but the Assam government was penalising the Hindu Bengali migrants by labelling them “D-voters”. Foreigners’ notice was served on a Hindu Bengali freedom fighter, Prafulla Chandra Saha, a few years back and chief minister Tarun Gogoi had to apologise for that.

Sentinel op-ed: Linky

Many of the names on the lists of ‘D’ voters are Hindu Bengalis. The largest number of cases filed on the ground of being suspected Bangladeshis are Hindu Bengalis. Reports of several being harassed and even pushed back to the other side of the border and being subjected to untold mental and physical harassment are not rare. This only brings out the total indifference and apathy of the Centre and the State towards Hindu migrants, the victims of atrocities in Bangladesh, taking shelter in Assam.

According to the latest information, 80% of the 1.5 lakh persons on the lists of ‘D’ voters are Hindu Bengalis. The police is active to hunt them down, but dare not touch the infiltrators, fearing backlash. NRC update has been held up due to violent protests by the All Assam Minority Students’ Union (AAMSU). Why are Hindu Bengalis the prime target? Reason is not far to seek. It is more on political consideration that the Centre and the state work in cohort known for their brazenly minority appeasement policy, feel circles concerned here. The present UPA government led by Dr Manmohan Singh has been totally indifferent to complete fencing of border, allowing aliens to sneak into from Bangladesh, the circles feel.

The BJP, while welcoming the NRC update of 1951 with the cutoff date of 1971 voters lists, has reminded the Centre of the assurances of national leaders and the relevant laws enacted after the partition of the country in respect of enrolment of Hindu Bengalis. It was on the basis of the assurances of Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru and Sardar Vallavbhai Patel that The Immigrants (Expulsion from Assam) Act, 1950 had been enacted and became effective from the same year. The Act has clearly spelt out that any person displaced from his place of residence due to civil disturbances in any area now forming part of Pakistan and subsequently living in Assam shall need special protection. The Act thus makes clear distinction between refugees and infiltrators. It needs no repetition why Hindus have to leave East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, and seek shelter in India. The worst thing to happen in Assam was the enactment of the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act of 1983 replacing the 1950 Act. It helped to protect the infiltrators more than the victims of atrocities in East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. It was, however, annulled in 2005 by an order of the Supreme Court. With the revival of the Act of 1950, it is natural that the Hindus among the ‘D’ voters should be restored their right to vote and given refugee status.

It is to be recalled that the NDA government led by Atal Bihari Bajpayee amended the Citizenship Act of 1956 in order to treat the Hindu migrants from Pakistan in the wake of 1965 and 1971 wars seeking shelter in Gujarat and Rajasthan as refugees. UPA government of Dr Manmohan Singh ratified the amendment. There is no reason why the Hindus, the victims of partition, Indo-Pak war of 1971 and the continuous chain of torture and atrocity in Bangladesh should be treated differently.

7) Border fencing: Linky

The construction of a 9.3km barbed wire fencing along the Indo-Bangla international riverine border in Moslabari Char of Dhubri district has made little progress since it was started in 2006. The fencing, being done under the pilot project, if proved to be feasible and successful, would be extended to the remaining 35km of the riverine border. However, only 60 per cent of the work has been completed in the past four years.
...
Officials from the National Building Construction Corporation (NBCC) said they had understood it was going to be an uphill task for them to implement the project as everything, from material to machinery, had to be transported to the char by boat. South Salmara-Mancachar sub-divisional officer Swami Biswanathan said 60 per cent of the total work had been completed since 2006 and the rest of the construction would be completed by January next year. “I shall, however, have to visit the site to assess the progress of the project and within a couple of days, I shall be able to speak about the present status of this project,” Biswanathan said.

An intelligence source said since the beginning of the fencing work in 2007, clashes between BSF jawans and cattle smugglers have been on the rise. Six separate clashes took place last year. “On many occasions, the BSF had to fire to stop the cattle smugglers from transporting cattle to Bangladesh or to disperse village mobs which often came out to defend the smugglers,” the source said. “Besides Moslabari, Mantrir Char, Bhogdohar and Mahamaya Char border fronts also have been identified as very sensitive for the same reasons. Hundreds of Bangladeshis often gather at night on the other side of the border with public announcement systems and abuse the BSF personnel for hours together and attempt to instigate BSF,” the source added.

8) Sana Yaima and UNLF: Linky

The Manipur unit of the CPI today said it would continue to mount pressure on New Delhi to know the whereabouts of the UNLF chairman. The announcement came a day after CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan passed on to the state CPI unit the information provided by Bangladesh Communist Party that Sana Yaima was arrested from Dhaka and taken to India. The party reported the matter after Bardhan contacted Manjur Hassan Khan, the chairman of the Bangladesh Communist Party, about the case.
...
He said the CPI MPs were preparing to raise the Sana Yaima issue in both Houses of Parliament. “Instructions were given to the MPs in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha to take up the matter,” Iboyaima said.

9) Indian counter-moves in SL: Linky

Pushing for national reconciliation in Sri Lanka, India on Saturday opened its consulate in Jaffna, the Tamil heartland, and inaugurated the Northern Railway lines for which New Delhi has pledged a $800-million credit that will spur the reconstruction of the war-ravaged northern region. Besides its high commission in Colombo, India has a consulate in Kandy, in the tea-growing region populated by “Indian Tamils”. Now, besides Jaffna, another consulate has opened in Hambantota, in the Sinhalese-populated south which is the political hub of President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

In an ambitious move that can transform the region, Krishna also formally inaugurated works for the reconstruction of the Northern Railway lines with the launch of the Medawachchiya-Madhu line in presence of Minister of Economic Development Basil Rajapaksa, Peiris and Transport Minister Kumar Welgama. India has pledged a line of credit of $800 million at concessional rates for various aspects of the Northern Railway project, including reconstruction of railway lines, installation of signalling and telecom systems and the procurement of rolling stock. “Work will also begin simultaneously on the Madhu-Talaimannar and Omanthai-Pallai railway lines,” Krishna said. Krishna and Peiris on Friday held wide-ranging talks by unveiling projects worth over $1 billion and expanded cooperation in areas ranging from transport and energy to defence and security as New Delhi pressed for a lasting political settlement.

10) Arup Mochi: Linky

Maoists lost toehold in Dalma — their second stronghold after Saranda forests — three months ago following uprising by village vigilantes, and sub-zonal commander Arup Mochi was on a desperate mission to revive his squad when he was killed in an encounter on November 22. This important piece of information, which is likely to buoy anti-insurgency operations, was provided by three Mochi aides — Manoj, Maheswar and Dara — arrested during Monday night’s encounter at Bardih village in the Karadoba panchayat area of Ghatshila.

11) Keynote talk on history matters: Linky

Delivering the keynote address, former ASI Director-General Prof. B. B. Lal spoke about “postulates [that] have been distorting our vision of India's past”. Among these is the belief that the Vedas are no older than 1200 B.C. and that Vedic people were nomads. Recent excavations at sites in Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat and a fresh study of Vedic texts, he said, have proved that most of these postulates are “ill- founded.” According to Prof. Lal, these excavations proved that the Rigveda is older than 2,000 BC and people of this civilisation were not nomads. Quashing the “Aryan invasion theory” he said that the Harappan civilisation did not become extinct, and C-14 dating procedures proved that Harappan and Vedic people were indigenous, not invaders or migrants.

12) Diabetes has reached epidemic proportions in India: Expert Linky

"More than 75 percent of heart attack patients are either diabetic or undiagnosed. A vast majority of patients undergoing renal dialysis and transplants have diabetes as the underlying cause," said Prof. Jamal Ahmad, director, Centre of Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N. Medical College, AMU. He said the country had 50 million diabetes patients, and more than 95 percent of the population suffers from some form of the disease. "Early diagnoses and optimal management can significantly decrease the mortality associated with this dreaded disease," he said.

Why was Suu Kyi released --- a hypothesis, and other updates (November 16, 2010)

1) Now that Aung San Suu Kyi has been released, the big question is why was she released. Obviously, given the state of affairs in Burma, knowing the answer to this question with complete certainty is nigh impossible. So let me throw some darts in the air and build a believable hypothesis.

The elections are over and the junta is firmly in control with its 1/4 share of the available seats in the Parliament, topped over by the USDP share. The junta has already created enough dissensions in the NLD to not worry about its viability even with Suu Kyi out. Further, she can be re-arrested anytime soon in case she ends up being major trouble. Enough bartering of economic aid has been achieved especially from ASEAN and Japan and brownie points on being progressive can be scored with the US and the APac-Europeans upon Suu Kyi's release. What the release could also mean is that the nominal replacement of Than Shwe by his successor(s) could have been de jure accomplished. This would also segue in well with the new Constitution, new flag, a change in policy, and whatever else has happened that we wont know for a long while.
2) Indo-Nepal border: Linky

India will provide nearly Rs 700 crores to Nepal for road projects in the Terai region, close to its border, to help improve transport infrastructure. This was decided here at the first meeting of the Project Steering Committee for the strengthening of road infrastructure of the Terai area of Nepal committee.

The project will be implemented in three phases and envisages to construct over 1,450 kms of black topped all weather roads in the Terai area of Nepal adjoining India. Phase-I, on which work is expected to start by next month, includes 19 roads totaling 605 kms. The project would be funded totally by the Government of India under the Nepal-India Cooperation Programme and will be constructed at an estimated cost of nearly Rs. 687.5 crores. As per the agreement, Nepal government should provide necessary lands to the contractors without any barrier. RITES is working as consultant for the project from the Indian side.

Meanwhile, Linky

Ex-King Gyanendra Shah has left for Mumbai, India on a family visit, Monday afternoon. Shah is going to India on pilgrimage and to attend the wedding function of one of his relatives, it is learnt. His spouse and ex-queen Komal Shah and his personal secretary Sagar Timilsina are accompanying him in his India trip. He left on a Jet Air regular flight at 12.30 pm. Although, it is a personal visit, Shah will also meet with top Indian political leaders during his India visit, it is learnt.

3) NDFB update: Linky

“According to information available with us, of late, the anti-talks faction of the NDFB has forged an alliance with the NSCN (K) and relocated its camps and cadres from Bangladesh to Myanmar,” the source said. He said NDFB cadres have found refuge not only in Arunachal Pradesh but also in Nagaland. “If we have to contain NDFB in Assam, we will have to deny sanctuary to the outfit in neighbouring states like Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland. The security along the Bhutan border also needs to be strengthened as NDFB cadres may try to carry out strikes in lower Assam by entering the state from Bhutan,” he said.

There are several militant bases in Arunachal Pradesh, bordering Nagaland, where NDFB and Ulfa militants take shelter with Khaplang militants. “So far we have refrained from mounting a full-scale attack on the NSCN (Khaplang) camps since the outfit is currently in a ceasefire with the government but now we will have to do something about it,” he said.

4) Demographic warfare in Assam: Linky

Assam’s invasion by Bangladeshis from silent to open has more or less become a fait accompli. With no let up, the unabated influx is casting ominous shadow on the demographic profile of Assam.
...
Quite alarming has been the rise in the border districts of Dhubri (6.81 per cent), Goalpara (4.83 per cent), Hailakandi (4.56 per cent), Karimganj (3.96 per cent) as well as Nagaon. Even the inner district of Barpeta rocked by the violent protests of All Assam Minority Students’ Union (AAMSU) over National Register of Citizens’ revision (NRC) update, now kept in abeyance by a shaky Tarun Gogoi led Congress Government, swamped by infiltrators, has registered 4.07 per cent rise. Other districts away from the Bangladesh border which are on the fast track of influx of aliens are Bongaigaon (6.79 per cent), Kamrup (5.20 per cent), Udalguri (3.90 per cent), Darrang (4.41 per cent), Dhemaji (4.50 per cent) and Karbi Anglong (4.11 per cent). Significantly, Morigaon district which was projected to become another Muslim majority area by 2011 has recorded moderate rise in the number of voters (1.51 per cent). Upper Assam districts of Jorhat, Golaghat, Sivasagar, Dibrugarh and Tinsukia have seen more or less normal growth rate of less than two per cent. This has been attributed to sustained campaign by AASU, BJP, BJYM and ABVP about the menace of infiltration without any dilution and ambiguity which has caught the psyche of Assamese population in general.

From all reckoning, in six of the 25 districts of Assam, religious minority holds the key to electoral battle and its outcome. At present, of the 126 Assembly seats in the Assembly and 14 in Lok Sabha, religious minority has 25 and two representatives respectively. It has been pointed out after all the calculation and permutation that in the 2011 Assembly elections, the religious minority will be able to win at least 34 seats and play crucial role in another 20 constituencies. How unabated infiltration has impacted adversely the demographic structure of the State can well be understood from the fact that Assam with 7,88,438 sq km of geographical area had a population of 2,66,38,407 as per 2001 census with a density of 286 persons per sq km which is higher than the national average of 267 persons per sq km. Dhubri and Goalpara which are teeming with infiltrators have the highest population density of 470 persons per sq km.

It has gone on record that rise in number of voters during 1966-1996 in 14 Assembly constituencies was over 100 per cent and in 43 constituencies over 80 per cent. The increase over the 30 year period was of the order of over 200 per cent in some constituencies. In one year during the period under question, the rise was 20 per cent in 25 constituencies and 10 per cent in 105 constituencies. Alarmed at the phenomenon, the Chief Election Commission of India had then directed the State Government to undertake comprehensive and critical review of the electoral rolls of the constituencies with abnormal rise in the number of voters in order to purge them of the names of foreigners. The AGP led Government of Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was not any way different. It preferred to ignore the directive and toed Congress just for the sake of political survival.

Buoyed up by tilting balance in its favour, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Badaruddin Ajmal with 10 seats in the Assembly in its maiden electoral battle of 2006 has decided to go it alone with an eye on the 36 constituencies with sizeable minority presence to play decisive role in the formation of government at Dispur. AGP-BJP tie up which alone could save the State and stem the flow of infiltrators could not sustain, much to the disappointment of people of the State. Taking advantage of the fluid situation, Congress which has gone all hog with election oriented welfare schemes and projects including the most ludicrous “one hospital a day” and huge financial bonanza for minorities in particular is desperate to remain at the citadel of power for the third consecutive term. Political analysts however do not rule out the possibility of post poll understanding or adjustment of AGP with BJP.

5) With the changing religious profile comes the following: Linky

In view of the increasing number of slaughter houses and indiscriminate killing of cows for food as well as their smuggling out to Bangladesh with the same purpose from across Barak Valley, NGO ‘Silchar Goshala’ located at Kathal Road on the Southern side of this town has intensified campaign to bring an end to this evil practice which hurts deeply the sentiments of Hindus.

6) HPC-D talks: Linky

Negotiations between Mizoram Government and Manipur-based Hmar People’s Convention –Democrats (HPC-D) would continue after the executive council of the outfit prepared its demands to solve the problems of the community, a senior Home Department official said here. HPC-D, breakaway group of HPC, has been demanding a separate Hmar territorial council comprising the north eastern part of Mizoram adjoining Manipur. The meeting, which was participated by Mizoram Home Secretary Lalmalsawma and a five-member HPC-D delegation led by its ‘army chief’ Roupia, was held here on Saturday. The talks were held in a cordial atmosphere and mutual understanding, an official said adding the outfit’s delegation left Aizawl yesterday to hold further talks with its top leadership.

The HPC-D delegation would soon get in touch with the government to fix the date for holding talks, he said. HPC has signed an agreement with the State Government to end six years of Hmar insurgency. Official sources said the State Government and HPC-D agreed that operations by the State police and the Central forces against the outfit would not be launched for the next six months.

7) When Hemchandra Pandey was "encountered", there were a lot of bleeding heart journalists that were castigating the Police for taking necessary action. I wonder what they have to say now. Linky

A raid by Andhra Pradesh police at the Shastri Nagar house of journalist Hem Chandra Pandey, killed along with Maoist spokesperson Azad in an encounter in Adilabad forest, yielded piles of Maoist literature, documents, CDs and letters. The contents of the CDs couldn't be read though. They seem to be encrypted, said sources. The bound volumes were meant for internal circulation among the CPI-Maoist members. The AP police team seized 68 copies of Maoist financial policy, 210 copies of the banned outfit's cadre policy, 66 copies of Maoist strategy and tactics, 63 copies of `Political Resolution', 103 copies of `Peoples War: Political Organ of CPI-Maoist' and 246 copies of `CPI-Maoist: Ideology and Preface'. Around 500 copies of `Shahari Kaam ke Baare Mein' in Hindi, detailing Maoist activities, strategy and propaganda in urban areas, came as a revelation. There were also 46 copies of the English version of the document. Documents on Maoist war strategy and field manual and the People's Liberation Army are expected to provide insights about the outfit.

In addition, sources claimed, the AP police team found documents on anti- personnel mines and a document detailing `How to use handgun' during the raid at the second floor apartment where the Pandeys had rented on February 7. Pandey was killed in the encounter on July 2. His wife Babita alias Binita Pandey left the house on July 2 and hasn't returned since. Speaking to TOI, Pankaj Gupta, a neighbour who was also a witness, said, "The AP police team broke the lock to enter the apartment in front of me. I was present throughout while the police searched the house." Slamming the raid, Pandey's wife Babita on Sunday said, "This is a malicious propaganda by Andhra police to hide the fact that they had killed my husband." She said this was an attempt by the AP police to harass her. "Without taking my permission, the police raided our house and now they are showing the seizure of objectionable things from the house," she said.

Updates (November 3, 2010)

1) When the State slacks, terrorists move in Linky

Noting the alarming growth of illegal immigrants in Nagaland, the NSCN-K has decided to check and control influx of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants and others from mainland India. A release issued by the NSCN-K said the outfit in coordination with regional authorities will identify and record every illegal immigrant family living in Nagaland while urging for fullest cooperation from Naga land owners as and when they are approached by NSCN-K officials for information and other necessary papers of the non-Naga tenants and farmers.

2) Tourists visiting NE states in 2007-09 Linky
State --- Domestic tourists --- Foreign tourists 2007, 2008 and 2009
Data from Linky

Arunachal Pradesh 91100 2212 149292 3020 195147 3945
Assam 3436833 12899 3617306 14426 3850521 14942
Manipur 101484 396 112151 354 124229 337
Meghalaya 457685 5267 549936 4919 591398 4522
Mizoram 43161 669 55924 902 56651 513
Nagaland 22085 936 21129 1209 20953 1423
Sikkim 329075 17498 460564 19154 547810 17730
Tripura 244795 3181 245438 3577 317541 4246

Clearly, Arunachal and Sikkim numbers have shown a dramatic rise, while Tripura domestic numbers has shown a huge jump from 2008 to 2009. The PIB release attributes it to:

The review of restrictions pertaining to Restricted Area Permit (RAP)/Protected Area Permit (PAP) for tourists is a continuous process and is undertaken by Ministry of Home Affairs on receipt of proposal from the concerned States and in consultation with security agencies. Ministry of Home Affairs has conveyed relaxation of Protected Area Regime in the following circuits of Arunachal Pradesh & Sikkim:

Arunachal Pradesh:
(i) Along – Mechukha.
(ii) Existing Pasighat – Jenging – Yiungkiong to be extended upto Tuting.
(iii) Daporijo – Nacho Circuit via Taliha and Sayum.
(iv) Ziro – Palin – Nyapin – Sangram – Kaloriang.
(v) Doimukh – Sagalee – Pakke Kasang – Seppa.

Powers were delegated to the Government of Arunachal Pradesh for issue of Protected Area Permit (PAP) in respect of the following:
(i) To visiting foreign tourists in a group of two or more persons (as against the existing requirement of group strength of four or more persons) for a maximum period of 30 days.
(ii) To a group of two foreign tourists even if they are not married couples and to foreigners married to Indian nationals belonging to the State of Arunachal Pradesh for visiting the State on tourist visas.

Sikkim:
(i) To issue PAP/RAP to foreign tourists in a group of two or above with a recognized travel agent, who would act as an escort. However, existing restrictions on visit of foreigners to Rumtek Monastry and restrictions on movement of Tibetan Refugees need to be enforced.
(ii) To issue PAP/RAP to visiting foreign tourists (subject to (i) above) initially for a period of 30 days extendable to another spell of 30 days.

The powers to issue PAP/RAP to foreign tourists are also delegated to Tourism Information Officer posted at Tourist Information Centre (TIC) at Darjeeling (West Bengal) and Melli (Sikkim).

3) ULFA Linky

The deployment of the Assam Rifles also failed to seal the international border with Myanmar because of the tough terrain and the militants are still being able to move between India and Myanmar by taking advantage of the unguarded portions of the international border.

4) War crime trials in BD

A tribunal in Bangladesh preparing to try former Islamist militants on the charge of killing unarmed civilians during the 1971 freedom movement has amended rules to facilitate their detention. The International Crimes Tribunal Monday amended its rules of procedure to stipulate that anyone being investigated for ‘crimes against humanity’ will be considered an accused. Earlier, a person was considered an accused only if formal charges against him were submitted to the tribunal. The change facilitates the detention of seven Islamists belonging to various parties, the Daily Star said Tuesday.

Coming into the tribunal’s net will be Salauddin Quader Chowdhury, a lawmaker of the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) who is considered close to party chief and former prime minister Khaleda Zia. Also in the net will be Abdul Alim, who was a minister under Zia, and BNP leader Abul Kalam Azad. Among others targeted by the tribunal are former Jamaat-e-Islami chief Golam Azam, Jamaat leader Mir Kashem Ali and former Jamaat lawmaker Abdus Sobhan, and Abdul Hannan of the Jatiya Party, a constituent of the ruling alliance. The Jamaat’s chief Motiur Rahman Nizami, secretary general Ali Ahsan Muhammad Mojahid, assistant secretaries general Muhammad Kamaruzzaman and Abdul Quader Molla have already been put behind bars to face charges of ‘genocide and crimes against humanity’.

Meanwhile, BD-Pak talks Linky

Pakistan once again avoided making any commitment to resolve long outstanding issues with Bangladesh, including apology for the 1971 genocide, repatriation of stranded Pakistanis, and sharing of pre-separation period state assets. Since independence, Bangladesh has been asking Pakistan to resolve the issues which also include transfer of foreign aid that was meant for cyclone victims of 1970, and payment of war reparations -- but all successive Pakistani regimes, including the present government, have completely ignored the request, except some repatriation of stranded Pakistanis.
...
Diplomatic sources said Pakistan's assurances are merely rhetorical, which its officials have been chanting since Bangladesh's independence, without taking any initiative to resolve the issues. Full diplomatic ties between the two countries were established in 1976. However, on Bangladesh's request, Pakistan agreed at the meeting to provide access to information and database particularly on geological surveys and archaeological excavations conducted by Pakistani agencies before 1971 in Mainamati, Chittagong, etc.

In contrast, Linky

An estimated 15.64 million tonnes of freight traffic between different states in India could potentially be diverted through Bangladesh where rail corridors could be the most cost effective, according to an independent study on transit-transhipment. Bangladesh is expected to earn a total net profit of $23 billion from cargo handling in 30 years.

A team of experts from Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Bhutan prepared the study report. Dr Rahmatullah, former director of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, led the team. The study by independent think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said, of the amount, about 12.02 million tonnes would be potentially diverted from Assam and 2.32 million tonnes from Nagaland. Additionally, 68,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of inter-state containers could potentially be diverted through Bangladesh.

Some more updates

1) Rail connectivity in the Northeast Linky

All the eight state capitals of the Northeast will boast of a railway link by 2016, the DoNER ministry said today. The railway ministry gave a presentation according to the North East Vision 2020 yesterday and assured the North Eastern Council (NEC) that it would connect all the capitals by 2016, DoNER minister Bijoy Krishna Handique said today. The cost of the mammoth project is Rs 17,000 crore for which all approvals have been acquired. Sources said the project would certainly be implemented as it was a national project committed by none other than Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The cabinet has also approved the budget, the sources added.

There is more for the region’s rail connectivity as the railways may commission a link between Akhaura in Bangladesh and Agartala, the capital of Tripura, by 2013. In the meantime, sources said Bangladesh had given the go-ahead for a link between a location close to the Indo-Bangladesh border and Chittagong port. The next problem now is for the state governments to pull up their socks on acquisition of land for the railways. Many states have still not been able to convince people to giving up their land.

There is hope though. “The Meghalaya chief minister yesterday promised he would clear land acquisition within three months,” an official present at the NEC meeting here said. This will put Shillong up in the list of go-getters for the railway link. At present, only Assam’s capital Guwahati is connected to New Delhi by the NF Railways. Though the rail link to Dibrugarh in north Assam passes through Dimapur in Nagaland, the state’s capital, Kohima, remains unconnected. Sources said Kohima will be connected by 2016.

Engineers of the railways have saved time by doing a GPS-based techno-survey, a time-saving departure from manual surveys that are manpower intensive and time-consuming. Handique will visit the Badarpur part of the Lumding-Badarpur section, work on which has been going on for the past several years. “We are pressing for the project to be completed at the earliest so that Agartala can also be connected,” Handique said. The Lumding-Badarpur line that passes through the North Cachar hills has one small hitch — a 3km-long tunnel. The railways plan to complete the tunnel by 2013. Connectivity to Tripura and thus, into Bangladesh, would then be complete. Complementing the new railway plan with inland waterway connectivity would increase productivity for the region manifold. The NEC meeting also declared two inland waterways on the Barak and the Brahmaputra to be national waterways.

2) A district call comes before Nagalim Linky

After the people of four underdeveloped districts in Nagaland have sought a separate state, a Naga community — Yimchungrü — living in parts of Tuensang and Kiphire — has now raised a demand for a separate district carved out of these two areas. “The Yimchungrü Tribal Council demand for separate district headquarters is genuine. The demand does not simply appear out of recent happenings but is a revelation of long sufferings,” the former president of Yimchungrü Tribal Council, S.J. Akhum, said.

He said the government believes that every community of Kiphire district was equally treated following an MoU was signed in 2003 between Sumi, Sangtam and Yimchungur communities, but it was not the case at the district level. “If Yimchungrüs were weak in passion, they could have immediately reclaimed the missing villages in the past. We understand that lives guided by the human values would be enough to permeate peace among the people but some have failed to live as good citizens and that disturbs the whole environment and affects the future lives of other communities,” Akhum said.

3) Little known facts on the Tirupur RMG industry Linky1 and Linky2

The value of exports was Rs.15 crore in 1985. In 1990, exports crossed the Rs.300-crore mark and in the next three years touched Rs.1,000 crore. Exports were at Rs.11,000 crore in 2006-2007, but it slumped to Rs.9,950 crore in 2007-08 because of the economic slowdown. It picked up steam in 2008-09 to record Rs.11,250 crore. Last year, the total value of exports stood at Rs.11,500 crore. The Tirupur Exporters' Association has set Rs.25,000 crore as the export target for 2012.

Once the quota system ended, buyers looked for big units, big facilities and also complete-compliance-certified factories. Under the quota system, we had small factories and the buyer had to go to as many as 20 exporters. In the situation prevailing now, corporate social responsibility (CSR) is built-in. Exporters are also aware of compliance requirements and of CSR. All factories have good toilet facilities and a good working atmosphere. The workplace is kept neat and clean. We also have the system of bringing workers to factories and dropping them back. Compared with the situation 10-15 years ago, now our factories have undergone a sea change. This is because we have found that unless we change, buyers will not come to us. The realisation that we have to fulfil our responsibilities has resulted in our voluntarily effecting the necessary changes in the factories, besides meeting the compliance requirements.

4) Oz updates: Greenhouse gas emission trading seems to be the issue over which the new Oz government will face its first acid-test. If the Oz government lasts till the next year, with the expected completion of the NBN pilot project in Tasmania, more sparks are expected to fly. With the beginning of the Parliament session, it seems like sledging Kevin Ruud has become a fair-game for any and every Rep from the Coalition. The following is a take on how Julia came to wrest the government. Linky

Julia offered Oakeshott, Windsor and Katter a package of measures designed to close the development gap between regional Australia and metropolitan Australia. The three independents had, on their own, come together to explore which side to support. Towards this end, the trio sought and obtained the Treasury's estimates of the public funding required to implement the poll promises of Labour and the Coalition respectively. With Abbott having initially suspected the impartiality of the Treasury in a highly surcharged political atmosphere, Julia was able to turn this issue to her advantage. In her narrative, she could be trusted more than Abbott for transparency in governance. In the end, it suited her that the independents detected what was described as “a huge black hole” in Abbott's funding plans for translating the Coalition's poll promises.

As a critical interlude in this process of decision-making by the trio of independents, an agreement was reached across the federal political spectrum for reforms in parliamentary procedures. An idea much talked about was the need for an “independent” Speaker in the House. Another strand of thought was that the constitutionally validated three-year term of any House of Representatives should not be trifled with. In such a new ambience of debate on issues, as distinct from a debate on parliamentary numbers, Oakeshott and Windsor chose Julia, while Katter sided with Abbott. Oakeshott cited the glamour or reforms – especially that of a fair deal for regional Australia – while Windsor was fascinated by Labour's plan for a national broadband network. On a parallel track, Wilkie, the whistle-blower, opted for Julia's continuance in office after she agreed to address his local concerns about hospital and health care reforms and gambling excesses. With the Greens, which secured a seat in the House for the first time, sensing that Labour, not the Coalition, would be its natural partner, the parliamentary numbers fell in place for Julia.

Meanwhile, the country as such is recovering from the replay (after the first Grand final was drawn) of the Grand final of ARL (Aussie rules footie) between the victors Collingwood Magpies and St. Kilda Saints. The NRL Grand final is to follow soon. For those who are not aware, Aussie rules or footie (as it is known) is THE premier sport in Oz. It is far more egalitarian in terms of gender, ethnicity (given the huge immigrant set in Oz -- Greeks, Italians, this that), social status etc. in contrast to its country cousin of cricket, which is more of a rich, white, male-dominated sport followed by the likes of John Howard, Pete Roebuck and Gideon Haigh. While the establishment has been vigorously trying to put Don Bradman as the epitome of Australian-ness, the country as such is fiercely ignoring the Gentleman's game, except when "Its not cricket" rules the airwaves. Even then, most of the Aussies really could nt care two hoots about cricket. It is ONLY us, folks from the Indian subcontinent, who would make a life or death heart-attacky setting out of a bloody cricket game. The rest of the Commonwealth just moves on happily. That explains why Fiji has little enthusiasm in cricket other than watching us subcontinentals make a mountain out of a molehill.

In any case, this is what an Aussie (Andrew Herrick in The Age) could think of when the word India came up: "upfront, garrulous, colorful, diverse, religious, relentlessly activist." For himself, he came up with this: "reserved, laconic, complacent, boisterous, tendentiously monocultural, and occasionally uncivil." An Australia-India tete-a-tete is mentioned as "an insular society wary of a sophisticated and complex 3000-year old civilization, and unused to dark-skinned people articulate in English."

5) NSCN senior terrorist goes missing from Nepal Linky

Nepal's biggest organisation of indigenous peoples has taken up the cause of a rebel leader from India's Nagaland State who reportedly went missing last week after arriving at Kathmandu's Tribhuvan International Airport from Bangkok. "We were alerted by an organisation in the Philippines, the Asian Indigenous People's Pact, that Ningkhan Shimray, head of the foreign affairs of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), disappeared on Monday evening after he emerged from the airport at Kathmandu," said Ang Kaji Sherpa, general secretary of the Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NEFIN).

Shimray, also known as Anthony Shing, was to have proceeded to India to take part in a new round of peace talks with the Indian government. He was to have flown to New Delhi the following day. However, even though he was allowed through by Nepal's immigration and customs authorities at the airport, he vanished soon after that.
...
This is the second "disappearance" of a rebel Indian leader from the east in less three months. In July, Niranjan Hojai, leader of the Dima Halam Daogah (Jewel) organisation in Assam, was arrested in Nepal and handed over to the Indian authorities.

6) ULFA parleys reach a certain stage of raised anxiety in me Linky

Highly placed official sources told The Assam Tribune that though the ULFA leaders, who are in judicial custody, cannot be released by the government directly, their release can be facilitated if the Government does not reject their bail petitions. The Government already facilitated the release of ULFA vice chairman Pradeep Gogoi and central publicity secretary Mithinga Daimary and in the same manner, the other jailed central committee members of the outfit can be released. According to information available, in the first phase, the deputy commander in chief of the ULFA, Raju Baruah, adviser Bhimkanta Buragohain alias Mama and cultural secretary Pranati Deka may be released on bail and the other senior leaders can be released in a phased manner depending on the progress made in the efforts to start the process of talk with the militant outfit.
...
Meanwhile, it is now clear that more than 30 members of the ULFA, who came back to Assam from Bangladesh recently, were compelled to do so because of the pressure mounted on them by the security forces of the neighbouring country. Security sources as well as sources close to the ULFA leaders revealed that the Rapid Action Battalion of Bangladesh launched a massive crackdown on the militants in recent times and even took action against those who provided shelter to the militants. On September 12, the personnel of the Rapid Action Battalion picked up one ULFA member Tinku Sonowal and roughed him up during questioning. The ULFA members, who were under pressure following the arrests of senior leaders including their chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa came under tremendous pressure following the crackdown launched by the Rapid Action Battalion and decided to return to the State as their security was at stake. The ULFA men along with their family members came to Assam in two batches—28 in the first batch and three in the second batch. They were received at the international border in Tura sector by a team of police officers and a ULFA leader on bail and brought to Assam. However, they were not kept in police custody and the commander of the 709 battalion of the outfit, Hira Sarania was entrusted with the responsibility of keeping them in safe places.

Meanwhile, sentinel has this to add on what will be a momentous turn on GoA-ULFA parleying: Linky

Seven more top ULFA leaders may come to Assam from Bangladesh and Myanmar after the Durga Puja in order to speed up the peace process with the government. According to intelligence sources, the ULFA leaders in question are staying along the Arunachal Pradesh-Myanmar and Bangladesh-Meghalaya borders now. They are 109 battalion’s operation ‘wing commander’ Dristi Rajkhowa, 28th battalion’s Myanmar camp in-charge Jibon Moran, political wing leader Sujit Mohan, upper Assam finance secretary Michael Deka Phukan, 28th battalion’s ‘operation commander’ Bijoy Chinese, 709 battalion ‘commander’ Heera Sarania and 28th battalion’s ‘second lieutenant’ Antu Saodang.

7) Uranium mining impasse Linky

The new acting Syiem (Chief) of Hima (Chiefdom) of Langrin, Nangtei Singh Syiemiong, emphatically said that the voice of the people would guide him while taking any decision on the proposed uranium mining in the Mawthabah-Phudkylleng-Nongbahjyrin areas of West Khasi Hills. These areas are under Hima Langrin (Langrin chiefdom).
The decision of the Syiem is critical, especially when the Centre and the State Government have long been trying to persuade the local people to allow the proposed uranium mining. When asked, the newly appointed Syiemiong stated: “We are aware of the different points put forth by the government and different agencies. However, my decision will be in line with the opinion of the people”. He gave a strong indication that the Hima would continue to oppose the proposed uranium mining in the areas under his domain.

8) An op-ed on IMDT
Of Fake Fencing and Deportation Hoax Linky

The sorry plight of the barbed wire fencing along the border not only reflects total apathy of the political parties in power in the State and the Centre, but more seriously a commitment and sinister design on the part of the powers-that-be to keep the border open for unabated influx of Bangladeshi nationals into Assam in the interest of vote-bank politics indulged in mainly by the ruling Congress while a few other parties are following suit.

While the blame for failure to seal the border with Bangladesh should be borne by both the Congress and the opposition parties, statistics drive home the point that the lion’s share of the blame goes to the ruling Congress. However, the AGP in the State and the BJP at the Centre must also bear a significant quantum of the same. On this count, seemingly Sushma Swaraj alone had the guts to speak the truth that failure to fence the border was a collective political failure.

9) DHD whinefest Linky
NDFB whinefest Linky

Assam Accord, Than Shwe visit and Nepal update

1) The Assam Accord is 25 years old, but many of its provisions are yet to be implemented. A bit of a pro-leftist stand with a partial hearing deficiency, but nevertheless good to get started. Linky

Apart from the definition of Assamese people , the other core issues that the accord sought to address remain unsettled – the detection and expulsion of foreigners who illegally entered Assam through the State's porous borders after March 25, 1971, and the sealing of the India-Bangladesh border to prevent further infiltration.
...
From the beginning of the agitation, the Left and some democratic parties, as well as some intellectuals, urged the agitation leaders to accept the cut-off date of March 25, 1971, for the detection and expulsion of foreigners. But the AASU-AAGSP leadership insisted on 1951 as the cut-off year and, later, 1961. So the agitation was prolonged, and those who reasoned in favour of the 1971 cut-off date were attacked as “stooges of foreigners”; the agitation leaders called for socially boycotting them. About 70 workers of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), or the CPI(M), the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist), or the CPI(ML), the Revolutionary Communist Party of India (RCPI), the Students Federation of India (SFI), the Democratic Youth Federation of India (DYFI), the Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU) and the All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS) were brutally murdered; many were maimed for life. These left-wing political parties, student-youth bodies, trade unions and peasant bodies did not want the Bangladeshis to be expelled from Assam, the movement leaders alleged. Divisive and communal forces that crept into the movement at times turned it into one for “driving out Muslim minorities”; in the infamous massacre at Nellie in the undivided Nagaon district in 1983, over 1,800 immigrant Muslim settlers were butchered in a single day. In the end, the AASU-AAGSP combine did accept March 25, 1971, as the cut-off date. It was incorporated in Clause 5.8 of the Assam Accord: “Foreigners who came to Assam on or after March 25, 1971, shall continue to be detected, deleted and expelled in accordance with law. Immediate and practical steps shall be taken to expel such foreigners.” But the acceptance came after much bloodshed; 855 participants in the agitation lost their lives and were declared martyrs.

Those hopes remained unfulfilled as successive AGP and Congress governments in the State failed to implement the accord's provisions regarding the detection, deletion (of names from voters lists) and expulsion of foreigners and the sealing of the border with Bangladesh. The constitutional, legislative and administrative safeguards meant for the Assamese people also largely remained on paper. The Centre, too, has not been able to deliver on the commitments that Rajiv Gandhi's government made in August 1985. This failure fuelled the secessionist movement, the seeds of which were sown during the “anti-foreigners” agitation. The United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), formed in 1979, articulated popular grievances against a Union government perceived as negligent towards the State's problems. The solution lay, the new outfit promised, in the creation of a Swadhin Asom (Independent Assam) to be achieved through an armed liberation movement. The failure of the AGP to implement the accord in its first tenure helped ULFA gain ground.

The information tabled in the Assembly by Assam Accord Implementation Minister Bhumidhar Barman makes a sorry tale. From 1985 up to May 31, 2010, as many as 49,891 foreigners were detected by the tribunals under the Foreigners Act and the erstwhile Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act, 1983. However, only 2,326 foreigners have been expelled to Bangladesh in the past 25 years. From 1985 and up to December 2009, only 1,428 foreigners who had re-entered the State were pushed back. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi admitted in the Assembly that most illegal settlers disappeared after their cases were referred to foreigners' tribunals. The State government has set up three detention camps in Goalpara, Silchar and Kokrajhar to house the detected foreigners until their deportation. At present, 57 foreigners are lodged in the Goalpara camp, 16 in the Kokrajhar camp and one in the Silchar detention camp. The lacunae in the mechanism of detection and expulsion have resulted in colossal waste of taxpayers' money. Between 1985 and 2006, over Rs.400 crore was spent on the exercise.

Clause 9 of the accord says: “The international border shall be made secure against future infiltration by erection of physical barriers like walls, barbed wire fencing and other obstacles at appropriate places. Patrolling by security forces on land and riverine routes all along the international border shall be adequately intensified. In order to further strengthen the security arrangements, to prevent effectively future infiltration, an adequate number of check posts shall be set up. ... All effective measures would be adopted to prevent infiltrators crossing or attempting to cross the international border.” However, Assam's 267.30-kilometre international boundary with Bangladesh is yet to be completely sealed; there is a 59-km stretch that has no barbed wire fencing. The State government's Public Works Department (Border Roads) has so far spent Rs.288.35 crore out of the total sanctioned amount of Rs.343.75 crore for the erection of barbed wire fencing along 175.52 km and the construction of 200.18 km of border road along the international boundary. The PWD was entrusted with the work of erecting barbed wire fencing along a length of 183.21 km; the department found that the work was not feasible along a 6.69 km stretch. Fencing has been erected along 175.62 km out of the remaining 176.52 km (99.49 per cent). March 2011 is the deadline for the completion of work over the remaining 895 metres.

The National Building Construction Corporation (NBCC) and the National Projects Construction Corporation (NPCC) have also been entrusted with the work of erecting barbed wire fencing. However, the State government could not inform the Assembly about the progress of the work by these two agencies because the details were not made available by the Centre until July 13, 2010. Samujjal Kr Bhattacharyya, AASU adviser, said: “Over the past 25 years, the AGP was in power for two terms but did nothing to implement the accord. During its second tenure, not a single review meeting at the level of Chief Minister was held. The BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] was in power at the Centre for six years. However, not a single review meeting on the Assam Accord, either at the Prime Minister's level or at the Union Home Minister's level, was held during National Democratic Alliance [NDA] rule. The Congress, which has been in power for most of the time during this period, also failed miserably to honour the commitments made by the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi as well as the commitments made by the present Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh. The Left parties and the Nationalist Congress Party [NCP] also cannot escape responsibility for the non-implementation of the Assam Accord as they too enjoyed power in some way in New Delhi and Dispur.” Bhattacharyya questioned the Centre's sincerity in sealing the border. “It is very unfortunate that while the government could seal and arrange floodlighting and effective patrolling along the India-Pakistan border in just three years, it failed to seal the India-Bangladesh border, arrange floodlighting and ensure effective patrolling by the Border Security Force [BSF] even after 25 years of signing of the Assam Accord,” he said.

On May 5, 2005, the Prime Minister chaired a tripartite meeting between the Centre, the Assam government and the AASU to review the implementation of the Assam Accord. This meeting came 16 years after the previous review meeting at the Prime Minister's level. The minutes of the meeting tabled in the Assembly reveal that the Prime Minister promised another meeting in the same financial year (2005-06). But, Bhattacharyya pointed out, more than five years had passed and the Prime Minister had not yet called another review meeting. “The Central government has never been sincere in keeping its commitment as far as implementation of the Assam Accord is concerned,” he said. He also pointed out that several deadlines for sealing the India-Bangladesh border had been missed and every year the State government set a new deadline. “The porous Assam-Bangladesh border is not just a threat to Assam. It poses a grave threat to national security. Bangladeshi infiltrators, ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence] agents and HUJI [Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami] cadre use Assam as a transit camp. It is time the government woke up to the problem,” he said.

In the past two and a half decades, the detection and deportation of foreigners have become complicated and got mired in legal battles. Such complications are rooted in the different historical backgrounds of the immigrants. Indigenous Bengali-speaking Hindus and Muslims from East Bengal who settled in Assam during pre-Partition days and Bengali-speaking Hindus and Muslims who migrated from erstwhile East Pakistan in different streams are to be treated as Indian citizens in accordance with the Indira-Mujib agreement. All Bengali-speaking illegal migrants from Bangladesh who crossed the porous border after March 25, 1971, are liable to have their names deleted from voters lists and be expelled in accordance with the Assam Accord. The BJP is against the expulsion of the post-1971 Hindu immigrants and wants them to be accorded refugee status. All other political parties, including AASU and student and youth bodies like the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP), want all immigrants who have come in after March 25, 1971, to be expelled.

Now, it is not easy to distinguish, culturally and linguistically, between the pre-1971 immigrants and the post-1971 settlers as they all speak the same dialect, though most pre-1971 Muslim immigrants of the Brahmaputra valley have adopted the Assamese language and sent their children to Assamese-medium schools. Some of them have also immensely contributed to Assamese literature. The Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act, enacted two years before the signing of the Assam Accord in the aftermath of the Nellie killings, had its roots in the allegations of deportation of immigrants without trial and harassment of Indian citizens in the name of detection of illegal settlers. Those who pushed for it argued that before the promulgation of the Act, as many as 210,446 Muslims had been driven out of Assam between 1952 and 1971 without trial and without being given an opportunity to defend their status. They also alleged that 192,339 people had been deported from the State between 1972 and 1983 in a similar manner.

The AGP and AASU demanded its repeal on the grounds that it hampered the implementation of the Assam Accord, especially in the detection and deportation of illegal settlers, and actually protected illegal immigrants. They also argued that the Act was discriminatory as it was applicable only in Assam, while in the rest of the country infiltrators were detected and deported under the Foreigners Act, 1946. The Illegal Migrants Act put the onus of proving an allegation of illegal immigration on the prosecution; the Foreigners Act puts it on the accused. On July 12, 2005, the Supreme Court struck down the Illegal Migrants Act, acting on a petition filed by former AASU president Sarbananda Sonowal. Sonowal, a former Lok Sabha member and at present a general secretary of the AGP, had moved the apex court at the behest of AASU.

The scrapping of the Act, however, did not seem to make much of a difference. Between January 1, 2001, and June 31, 2010, altogether 14,586 people were identified as foreigners in the State. Only 199 of them were deported as of May 31, 2010; 105 of them, incidentally, were expelled after the Act was scrapped. Interestingly, not a single foreigner detected under the Foreigners Act was expelled in 2007; one foreigner was expelled in 2006 and 10 in 2005. The cold fact is that about Rs.50 crore was spent between 2000 and 2010 in running the Foreigners' Tribunals. Of the 36 Foreigners' Tribunals, 32 are functioning. Eleven tribunals are run by members of other tribunals. As of February, 2,89,690 cases were pending before the tribunals.

A consensus among political parties and student and youth organisations, including AASU, on updating of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) 1951 by including names that appear in the 1971 voters lists and those of their descendents kindled hopes, for a while, for a permanent solution to the foreigners issue. However, an incident of police firing on July 21 on a demonstration by the All Assam Minority Students Union (AAMSU) over anomalies in the NRC form turned violent; four people died and about 50 were injured in Barpeta town in Lower Assam. The incident highlighted the absence of consensus on a mechanism to update the NRC. The Assam government immediately suspended work on the pilot projects of updating the NRC in two revenue circles, Barpeta and Chaygaon. The AGP, AASU and the BJP criticised the move and demanded resumption of the work. There were flaws in the NRC application form, AAMSU alleged; the Assam government, in response, promised to “simplify” the form in consultation with all political parties and other organisations. However, AASU insists that there is no flaw in the form and sees the controversy as a conspiracy to delay the updating work in order to include names of illegal immigrants.

Clause 6 of the accord promises that constitutional, legislative and administrative safeguards, as may be appropriate, shall be provided to protect, preserve and promote the cultural, social and linguistic identity and heritage of the Assamese people. However, a consensus definition of Assamese people could not be found in the past 25 years. AASU has been demanding 100 per cent reservation in the Assembly, barring the seats reserved for Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe candidates, and the right over land for Assamese people. It believes that only such a step can allay the fears of the Assamese people of losing political power to infiltrators. In 2006, the State government constituted a Committee of Ministers to examine issues relating to the implementation of this clause, including the definition of Assamese people. The committee has not yet made up its mind.

The biggest challenge before the present AASU leadership is to draw lessons from the six-year anti-foreigners agitation and take into account the socio-political changes that have taken place in the past 25 years while arriving at a definition for Assamese people. It will not be easy, particularly in the backdrop of the identity-based autonomy movements of various tribal groups. The Bodos and the Karbis have revived their statehood demands, while other tribes such as the Rabhas, the Tiwas and the Mising seek upgraded autonomous councils under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution. Six communities – the Koch-Rajbangshis, the Tai-Ahoms, the tea-tribes, the Morans, the Mataks and the Chutias – want Scheduled Tribe status. The Assam Accord promised to protect the tribal belt and blocks from encroachment, but the government has failed to implement the relevant provisions under Clause 10.

2) Frontline view on Gen. Than Shwe's visit Linky

The most important agreement signed during the Than Shwe visit was the one on mutual legal assistance. Under the agreement, members of Indian insurgent groups held in Myanmar can be deported to India to face trial. Many separatist fighters wanted in India are currently in custody in Myanmar.
...
The earlier military regime under Gen. Ne Win had kept both India and China at arm's length. The Myanmarese elite have always been suspicious of the motives of the two big neighbours. But after the events of 1988 and the subsequent warming of Sino-Myanmarese ties, northern Myanmar was opened up to Chinese trade in a big way by the mid-1990s. India feared that the Chinese influence in Myanmar was spreading by the day.
...
India's “Look East” strategy had started under the P.V. Narasimha Rao-led Congress government but it was the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government that took the first concrete steps to implement it. Normalising relations with Myanmar was seen as essential for India to leverage its geopolitical proximity to the South-East Asian region. The then Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh started the process by making two visits to Myanmar in 2001 and 2002. The first visit was to inaugurate the India-Myanmar Friendship Road, and the second was to start talks on building the ambitious Trans-Asia highway project. High-level military contacts started in 2000 when the Indian Army chief met with his Myanmarese counterpart. India has since started supplying Myanmar limited amounts of weaponry, and providing training to military personnel from that country. Myanmar was crucial to the Indian government in view of the BIMST-EC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation) and the Kunming Initiative, an effort involving India, China, Myanmar and Bangladesh. These developments took place although India's Defence Minister at the time, George Fernandes, was a vocal supporter of the Myanmarese democracy movement. The residence of the Minister was for a long time the unofficial headquarters of exiled student activists from Myanmar who had spearheaded the movement for the restoration of democracy.
...
The agreements signed between the two countries coincided with the Obama administration's renewal of sanctions against Myanmar.

3) From SATP: Bheda act of the Sama, Dana, Bheda, Dand routine -- borrowing Col. Hariharan's words.

Quoting the insiders of the Unified Communist party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M), Kantipuronline reports that the two groups led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai will spur heated discussions in the upcoming Central Committee of the party. The Central Committee (CC) meeting scheduled for August 10 has been postponed to August 11 on the ground that more time is needed for completing preparations for the event. Both factions of the leaders supporting Chairman Prachanda and Vice Chairman Baburam Bhattarai are impatient to “vent their ire” against each other. “The meeting is likely witness heated discussions and is also expected to thrash out several crucial issues,” said a Maoist leader. Both Dahal and Bhattarai have serious disagreements over several crucial issues pertaining to internal party politics, Government formation and the peace process. Further, UCPN-M spokesperson Dina Nath Sharma said, on August 10, his party chairman and Prime Ministerial candidate Prachanda is ready to withdraw his candidacy for the Prime Minister provided other parties agreed to amend the Interim Constitution to revive the system of consensus Government, reports Nepal News.

Seems like a last-gasp move by prachanda to forestall Baburam Bhattarai's "inevitable" rise.