NLFT and MHA report

1) From SATP:

The total number of surrendered militants of the NLFT and the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) outfits rose to around 130 in 2010. According to an official document, over 8,200 militants have surrendered to the authorities in Tripura since 1993. According to the BSF and other security officials, militants belonging to various militant groups in the Northeast region have set up about 90 camps in different parts of Bangladesh, especially Sylhet District and Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), bordering Tripura, Mizoram and Meghalaya.

2) MHA report: Linky
Contrary to the title of the report, HM should not be too relieved. The conflict zone has moved from the J&K axis and the NE axis to the heartland with the maoist menace very well-coordinated. In any case,

Following are the details of the number of incidents, casualties of civilians, security personnel and number of terrorist/extremist killed in the State of Jammu & Kashmir and North Eastern states are as under:-

Jammu & Kashmir
Year No. of Incidents No. of SFs killed Civilians killed Terrorists killed

2008 708 75 91 339
2009 499 64 78 239
2010 (Up to June 30) 254 34 20 114

North Eastern states
Year No. of Incidents No. of SFs killed Civilians killed Terrorists killed
2008 1561 46 466 640
2009 1297 42 264 571
2010 (Up to July 15) 397 4 44 160

3) Just to confirm the above, in the Parliament,

The Government on August said almost 8,500 armed Naxal [Left Wing Extremist] cadres were present in the country and as many as 21 left wing extremist groups were indulging in acts of violence, reports DNA. "As per available inputs, the total strength of armed cadres of Naxalites is around 8,500," Minister of State for Home Affairs Ajay Maken told the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) in a written reply. Maken also said, "According to intelligence inputs, there are 21 left wing extremist (LWE) groups indulging in violence in the country". There are no inputs to indicate that the LWE groups are being supported financially by various industrialists. However, they raise funds from contractors and businessmen by imposing levies through coercive means, he said in reply to another question. Maken said the total number of security personnel killed by Naxals in the current year, up to July 31, is 218. To an another question, Maken said, "There are no inputs indicating operational link between Maoists of Nepal and India."

Further, Maken said People's Committee against Police Atrocities (PCPA), a frontal organisation of the Communist Party of India (CPI-Maoist) was involved in the derailment of the Janeswari Express, which killed 148 passengers. "Investigation conducted, so far, reveals that Police Santras Birodhi Janasadharaner Committee (PSBJC/PCPA), a frontal organisation of Maoists, was involved in damaging the railway track, thereby causing the accident." said the Minister.

To complete the circle, if one correlates with the NLFT surrender saga, around 8200 cadres have surrendered since 1993. That would guesstimate the neutralization time of the maoist menace (of the 8500 cadres) at around 15 years. We are really talking about one generation of crisis here. The best strategy as of now is to ensure that more folks dont fall prey to the maoist agenda. Cutting the Oxygen is the key before managing the fire. There are no two things about this. That is why when the HM or someone else states that the menace will be put down in three years or four, I am unwilling to buy it. Clearly, the worst of the maoist menace is NOT behind us, but ahead of us. Especially given the rotten local intelligence machinery, we are going to see more blood-letting before the naysayers such as Digvijay Singh and Nitish Kumar will come to the other side of the divide. That is bound to happen. GoI has not surrendered on J&K, so that is one precedent that if push comes to shove, GoI can battle it across generations. If that is any guarantee, that is the best guarantee to keep your heart-rate low....