Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Nepal update

Thanks to abhishek_sharma's brf-watch, Linky

In an effort to end the stalemate in Nepal over the election of a new prime minister, India is sending its former Foreign Secretary, Shyam Saran, as special envoy to Kathmandu on Wednesday with a mandate to engage all political parties, including the Maoists, and help build a consensus on the formation of a government that can take the peace process and the task of Constitution writing to a conclusion by next year's new deadline. Mr. Saran served earlier as the Indian ambassador in Kathmandu and played a key role within the Indian establishment in backing the 12-point understanding among the Maoists, the Nepali Congress and the Unified Marxists-Leninists.

This can only point to some SOS from Rakesh Sood and co. Either the maoists are close to winning in the next round, and the horse-trading must have indicated that or there is ZERO hope of consensus between CPN(ML) and NC unless India helps an agreement to such a nature or they want the maoists to compromise and form a tri-party nationalist government, which can only be greased by India's lubrication. The third guess is indicated in the report:

Sources say Mr. Saran's role will be to consult with the Maoists and the two smaller national parties, as well as with the various Madhesi factions. The decision to form a government will have to be taken by the Nepali parties themselves but New Delhi feels it can no longer afford to remain completely aloof from the process.

Enough letting the US acting too big for its boots. Meanwhile,

Leaders of the Madhes-based parties in the coalition that stepped down last month have assured caretaker Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal that they will not support Unified CPN (Maoist) in the next round of election to the post of PM saying the Maoists had not shown interest for integration and rehabilitation of its combatants and management of arms. At a meeting with PM Nepal at his residence in Baluwatar Tuesday the Madhes-based leaders said they did not support the Maoists in the previous elections because of their apathy towards army integration and rehabilitation and would continue their stance until the Maoists transform into a ‘civilian party.’

Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (Loktantrik) chairman Bijaya Kumar Gachchhadar, Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party chairman Mahanth Thakur, Sadbhwana Party chairman Rajendra Mahato and Minister for Tourism and Civil Aviation in the caretaker cabinet, Sharat Singh Bhandari, were present at the meeting. The Madhes-based parties, which had remained united in the first and second round of election to the post of Prime Minister, were clearly divided during the third round election on Monday with some MJF Nepal lawmakers breaching the party decision and voting for the Maoists. Meanwhile, PM Nepal also consulted leaders of some fringe parties including Chure Bhawar Ekta Party chairman Keshav Mainali, Pariwar Dal chairman Eknath Dhakal, Sanghiya Loktantrik Manch leader Kumar Lingden and CA member Moti Dugad.

Elsewhere,

United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) has expressed deep concern over the fresh recruitments announced by the Nepal Army and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of the Maoists, saying that recruitments by either side amount to violation of the peace agreement. "UNMIN's position remains that any recruitment by either the Nepal Army or the Maoist army constitutes a breach of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the Agreement on the Monitoring of the Management of Arms and Armies (AMMAA)," the UN mission said in a press statement Tuesday evening.
...
UNMIN statement came hours after the PLA announced its plan to recruit personnel in its "vacant positions" saying that it would go ahead with the plan unless the NA withdrew its recruitment drive, which was announced three days after the Supreme Court quashed a writ petition challenging its recruitments. The apex court in its ruling stated the matter should be decided by the JMCC. PLA deputy commander Chandra Prakash Khanal 'Baldev' said at a press conference today that recruitments would be conducted in order to bring the PLA's strength to 31,315 from the existing 19602. 11,713 PLA members had been disqualified in the second round of verification conducted by UNMIN. Among them, 4008 combatants were formally discharged from the cantonments.

It seems like there can be no peace between maoists and CPN(ML and NC. However, if horse-trading continues and the maoists pull some elite company, then they could inch towards a 301 majority. Plausible, but not possible.

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