Sri Lanka's Killing Fields - October 2011 Report

Image courtesy: http://www.guardian.co.uk

All anecdotal accounts from India talk about the horrible human right violations on the Sri Lankan Tamilians. The Sri Lankan tamilians were first treated horribly by Government of Sri Lanka, then by their own 'movements' that championed their cause to only let them down in the long run. LTTE systematically obliterated other Tamil groups first, and positioned itself as the sole savior.

Meanwhile,  Channel 4's Sri Lanka documentary cleared by Ofcom. Dorothy Byrne of Channel 4 complains about the PR lobbying by Sri Lankan government and others:

Sri Lanka's Killing Fields, which was broadcast in June and featured graphic footage of alleged war crimes, faced a demonstration outside Channel 4's London headquarters – which she claimed had been organised by the Sri Lankan ministry of defence.

Flash back to the 80s and 90s....

The Dravidian parties of Tamil Nadu saw a tremendous opportunity to sway the emotions of tamilians in Tamil Nadu to get votes. Vaasanthi in her book "Cut-outs, Caste and Cine Stars" quotes Karunanidhi:

If the Center can support the Palestinian struggle for a homeland , why does it not back the movement for a Tamil Elam?

As the Dravidian parties vied for attention by spreading awareness of the Sri Lankan tamilians conditions and demanded that India do something about it, the leaders in New Delhi were worried as it eerily reminded them about the demand for 'Dravida Nadu'.  MGR for his part offered patronage but was opposed to Tamil Elam and any armed support. During the IPKF operations in Sri Lanka, many of the Tamil Nadu politicians complained about the Indian Army 'excesses'.

For their part the Tamilians of Tamil Nadu, initially had sympathy towards the Sri Lankan Tamilians, but as LTTE decimated the other tamil groups and violence along the coastal regions of Tamil Nadu increased because of bomb blasts, looting and fratricidal war between Tamil Groups, the Tamilians in Tamil Nadu began to distance themselves with the thought "I am Indian, only next a tamilian".

Tamil Nadu, its people and prominent leaders turned against Sri Lankan Tamils after LTTE assasinate Rajiv Gandhi. Karunanidhi sobs to Vaasanthi and she writes in her book:

I trusted them, amma. We were all genuinely moved by the Tamil's plight. These boys [Pirabakaran and his associates] looked so innocent and gentle in their manner......... I was too shocked when such a massacre happened right here in our streets. From then on I decided to have no more truck with them. I stopped seeing or talking to them.

The poor Sri Lankan Tamilians first had to suffer at the hands of Buddhist Sinhalese, Government of Sri Lanka and its army and then their own movement committed atrocities against each other to the extent they did little for the true cause. India was helpless. Or was it? I for one wish India showed some spine and had decisively acted to make an impact.

Fast forward to 2011....

Tamil National Alliance leaders are meeting US & UN officials in America. A UNRIC report laments the bloody past of a beautiful island. Alan Keenan, Senior Analyst and Sri Lanka Project Director for the International Crisis Group (ICG) says:

We need an open political structure in Sri Lanka. The president and his two brothers control all the most important ministries and around 75 % of the national budget. This is not a positive scenario for addressing the damage done to Sri Lanka’s political institutions from decades of war and terror. Equally worrisome, there are no signs the government is especially interested in addressing the political marginalization and grievances of minorities by including Tamils and Muslims equally in political life, not only nationally but locally. And if they are not interested in correcting the mistakes of the past, their policies risk sowing the seeds of future conflict.

The Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation sees it blames it all on LTTE supporters. It is the bad luck of Sri Lanka, that LTTE chose to be the champion of their cause. Every sane group or individual, on hearing the name of LTTE steps back and stops talking about Sri Lankan Tamilians. Ironically LTTE helped the Sinhalese more than the Tamilians. Sad.

An attempt made by few western countries to appoint a Human Rights commissioner for commonwealth countries was ended up a in a failure due to strong protest staged by majority of members including India and Sri Lanka. At the commonwealth meeting representative of those countries pointed out that such an appointment would lead to interference of internal affairs of member countries. The attempt made by some  pro-LTTE elements to discredit Sri Lanka was also failed. Majority of members have extended their support to Sri Lanka and praised the country’s economic growth following the end of terrorism.

While others see the attempt to set a Human Rights Commission as Western Imperialism and considers Gaddafi was a friend in need. While a whole lot could be written about USA and UK and their hypocrisy, Libyan Dictator and Sri Lankan Army make strange bedfellows. Sri Lanka cannot cite Libya, UK and USA's actions and inaction and excuse itself of its treatment of fellow citizens and its own war crimes.

  It would be recalled and must never ever be forgotten that when the sanctimonious affluent western nations such as United States and Great Britain strained every nerve, muscle and fibre of their beings to prevent us from liberating our country from the cancer of terrorism by starving us of funds – i.e. by preventing the IMF from giving us the standby facility of some US $ 500,000,000/-, it was Gadaffi who came to our aid by offering us money. It was only thereafter that the IMF agreed to give us that facility.

On the other hand, a couple of days ago, there was joy in certain quarters that the noose tightened on Rajapaksa:

Colonel Qaddafi appeared to be a saint compared to President Mahinda Rajapaksa and how he would extricate himself from the mess he embroiled himself into, only time will tell

Gaddafi and Sri Lanka's ties did not go unnoticed after Gaddafi's death. Media compared China's muted response to Sri Lanka's demand for an explanation. GoSL's stance on its own human rights was pointed out.

Gaddafi was a close friend of the government of Sri Lanka and of President Rajapaksha. One of the last politicians to have a photo opportunity with Colonel Gaddafi was President Rajapaksha’s heir apparent, his son and M.P. Namal Rajapaksha.

Only a few countries condemned the killing of Gaddafi in such a cold blooded manner. The government of Sri Lanka, although it did not condemn the killing, called for an explanation of his death. A number of government ministers have condemned the killing. Issuing a statement consisting of 21 words in one sentence, the government of Sri Lanka said: ” “The Government of Sri Lanka is of the opinion that the circumstances surrounding the death of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi require an explanation.”

This statement is commendable especially in the context when even a country like China, which has been a stronger supporter of Gaddafi and his government, issued a more muted statement. The statement by China’s foreign ministry said: ‘Gaddafi’s death marks the turning of a page in Libya’s history.’ China also called for a rapid launch of an inclusive political process to find unity in the country, and the launch of economic restructure, to make its people live peacefully and happily.

The statement of the GOSL is indirectly calling for an inquiry into the incidents which led to the death of Gaddafi. A proper explanation can only be possible after an impartial inquiry. Here we can see that the GoSL is of the same opinion as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International. Both organisations issued strong condemnations of the killing and called for a proper investigation and justice.

Both these organisations have called for such investigations regarding the alleged killings that had taken place in the last phase of the war with the LTTE in Sri Lanka. They have provided evidence of individuals killed while in detention. One such case is that of the Eastern province LTTE leader Colonel Ramesh. The video footage of Ramesh being questioned by Sri Lankan military personnel, and of his dead body, is available even on the internet. A number of wives of former LTTE leaders came before the Lessons Learned and Reconciliation Commission of the government and said that their husbands surrendered themselves to the military; their whereabouts are unknown after that.  The Sinhala language newspaper Divaina reported that a number of LTTE leaders were in military custody and printed their names. (The newspaper later retracted the story.)

While the West and Sri Lanka fight on, India stands doing not much for a country that is practically in its backyard.  I think it is India's wishy-washy stance that emboldened the Sri Lankan government to commit atrocities against Tamilians. Well, it would be germane to ask "What should India have done?" My answer: "Something different from what it did." India cannot be blamed, but dil mangtha hain more from; if India could not have influenced Sri Lanka, little could other countries do. And if India had been little more active, the 'Evanjihadists' influence on the Tamil groups could have been controlled. Or probably not. We would never know.

Buddhism stands along Islam as another religion of peace. I am positive Buddha would be greatly troubled, and maybe we can lay all the fault at Asoka's feet for spreading Buddhism in 'Ceylon'.

Danish East India Company and Danish West India Company

Fort Dansborg stood as a symbol of Danish colonial in India for over 200 years

It is a testament to the power of capitalism that private companies could actually conquer and settle whole territories. This is exactly what the East India companies and their many variants did. Even at the time, the actions of these companies caused concern to their national governments, eventually leading to their dissolution or nationalisation. The concern was well warranted. If you can imagine Nike raising its own army in order to invade Indonesia, simply to gain better trading conditions, you get an idea of what these companies did and the profits they reaped in doing so...

Read more at Little Denmark

Christian IV approved the founding of the Danish East India Company, and also of lacey lapels

What is cooking in Arunachal aka the resignation drama of Jarbom Gamlin

To understand what is going on in Arunachal Pradesh, a contextualization is essential.

a) A Historical Background: Arunachal Pradesh is the largest among all the North-East states considering its area of 83,743 sq. kms. The state has a long international border with Bhutan in the west covering 160 kms, Tibet in the north and northeast covering 1030 kms and Myanmar in the east covering 440 kms. The states of Assam in the south and Nagaland in the east and southeast form the other border states. Arunachal Pradesh falls in the outer Himalayas and Patkoi ranges. It is endowed with wide topographical variations, vegetation and wild life. The state is vivisected by innumerable rivers and streams which originate in the higher Himalayas and Arakan ranges. They flow down to form tributaries of Brahmaputra. The major rivers are Kameng, Subansiri, Siang, Dibang, Lohit, Diyum and Dihing.

Arunachal Pradesh acquired an identify of its own for the first time in 1914 when some tribal areas were separated from the then Darrang and Lakhimpur district of Assam to form North-East frontier Tract (NEFT). The NEFT was further sub-divided into Balipara Frontier Tract, the Sadiya Frontier tract and Tirap Frontier Tract between 1914-43. At the time of India’s independence in 1947, the present territory of Arunachal Pradesh was under part-B of the Sixth schedule of the Constitution as the tribal areas of Assam. Part-B included NEFT including Balipara Frontier Tract, the Tirap Frontier Tract, the Abor Hills district, the Mishmi Hills district and the Naga tribal areas. All these districts together were renamed as North-East Frontier Agency (NEFA) in 1951.

The NEFA was reconstituted under North-East Frontier Areas (Administration) Regulation of 1954 into Kameng Frontier Division, Subansiri Frontier Division, Siang Frontier Division, Lohit Frontier Division, Tirap Frontier Division, and Tuensang Frontier Division. The Tuensang Frontier Division was later separated from the NEFA in 1957 and merged with the newly constituted Naga Hills which became the new state of Nagaland. The NEFA was scheduled as part of Assam during the 1950-65 period and its administration was carried out by the Governor of Assam as an agent of the President of India under the Ministry of External Affairs. In the aftermath of the war with China in 1962, the responsibility of the NEFA administration was transferred to the Ministry of Home Affairs in 1965 as per the recommendations of the Dying Ering Commission (1965). Consequently, five divisions of the territory (Kameng, Subansiri, Siang, Lohit, and Tirap) became five districts. With the passage of time, these five districts have been further sub-divided into 16 districts.

Incorporating the recommendations of the Dying Ering Commission (1965), the North-East Frontier Agency Panchayat Raj Regulation Act was passed by the Parliament and implemented by the Government of India in 1967. As per the provisions of this Act, local self-government was introduced at different levels. For this, the Agency Council was formed at apex level followed by Zilla Parishads at District level, Anchal Samitis at Block level and Gram Panchayat at the village level. The traditional village councils which were already recognized under the North-East Frontier Administration of Justice Regulation, 1945, were accorded the status of Gram Panchayats. The NEFA was upgraded as Union Territory of Arunachal Pradesh on January 21, 1972 in accordance with the North-East Frontier Areas (Reorganization) Act of 1971. Finally, the Union Territory was replaced by a Pradesh Council which in turn was converted to a Legislative Assembly in 1975. The first elections to a 30 member Assembly was held in 1978. Finally, the Union Territory was replaced by a full fledged state on February 20, 1978. The present strength of members of the state's Legislative Assembly is 60, which according to the Constitutional stipulations implies that the strength of the Cabinet (including the Chief Minister) cannot exceed 12.

b) The People: The population of Arunachal Pradesh can be roughly divided into Scheduled Tribes and non-Scheduled Tribes. From the 2001 census data, 64.2% are Scheduled Tribes whereas the rest are non-Scheduled Tribes.

Scheduled Tribes: According to the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes Lists (Modification) Order, 1956 and as inserted by Act 69 of 1986 states, the STs in the state are “All tribes of the State including: Abor, Aka, Apatani, Dafla, Galong, Khampti, Khowa, Mishmi, Monpa, Momba, Any Naga tribes, Sherdukpen, Singpho”. The notification gives only an illustration of a few STs. In the 2001 Census, a total of 100 STs have been enumerated. Of these, 25 tribes have a population of 5000 or more. Relative to the total ST population of the state, these tribes and their relative percentages are: Nissi (Nyishi) 12.4%, Adi Gallong 6.8%, Wancho 6.77%, Dafla (reclassified as Nyishi as Dafla was deemed derogatory) 6.4%, Monpa 5.95%, Tagin 5.54%, Adi Minyong 4.82%, Nocte 4.78%, Adi 4.6%, Apatani 3.9%, Galong 3.86%, Mishmi 3.57%, Nishang 3.11%, Tangsa 2.97%, Abor 2.8%, Mishing/Miri 1.93%, Khampti 1.83%, Adi Padam 1.65%, ... .

Most of the tribes in Arunachal Pradesh are ethnically similar, having derived from an original common stock. But due to geographical isolation certain distinctive characteristics in each tribe in language, dress and customs can be noticed. The ST population form a set of semi-distinct cultural spheres, on the basis of tribal identity, language, religion, and material culture. They occupy distinct regions, specifically,
i) the Tibetic area bordering Bhutan in the west,
ii) the Tani area in the centre of the state,
iii) the Mishmi area to the east of the Tani area,
iv) the Tai/Singpho/Tangsa area bordering Burma, and
v) the "Naga" area to the south, which also borders Burma.
In between there are transition zones, such as the Aka/Hruso/Miji/Sherdukpen area, which provides a "buffer" of sorts between the Tibetic Buddhist tribes and the animist Tani hill tribes. In addition, there are isolated peoples scattered throughout the state, such as the Sulung.

Within each of these cultural spheres, one finds populations of related tribes speaking related languages and sharing similar traditions.
i) In the Tibetic area, one finds large numbers of Monpa tribes-people, with several subtribes speaking closely related but mutually incomprehensible languages, and also large numbers of Tibetan refugees.
ii) Within the Tani area, major tribes include Nissi (Nyishi), which has recently come to be used by many people to encompass Bangni, Tagin and even Hills Miri. Apatani also live among the Nyishi, but are distinct. In the centre, one finds predominantly Galo people, with the major sub-groups of Lare and Pugo among others, extending to the Ramo and Pailibo areas (which are close in many ways to Galo). In the east, one finds the Adi, with many subtribes including Padam, Pasi, Minyong, and Bokar, among others. Milang, while also falling within the general "Adi" sphere, are in many ways quite distinct.
iii) Moving east, the Idu, Miju and Digaru make up the "Mishmi" cultural-linguistic area, which may or may not form a coherent historical grouping.
iv) Moving southeast, the Tai Khamti are linguistically distinct from their neighbours and culturally distinct from the majority of other Arunachali tribes; they are religiously similar to the Chakmas who have migrated from the region that became Bangladesh. They follow the same Theraveda sect of Buddhism. The Chakmas consist of the majority of the tribal population. Districts of Lohit, Changlang, Dibang and Papum Pare have a considerable number of Chakmas. They speak a linguistic variant derived from Assamese and Bengali. Assam also has a large population of Chakmas who reside in the district of Karbi Anglong, Nagaon and Cachar. They also exhibit considerable convergence with the Singpho and Tangsa tribes of the same area, all of which are also found in Burma.
v) Finally, the Nocte and Wancho exhibit cultural and possibly also linguistic affinities to the tribes of Nagaland, which they border.

The 16 districts of Arunachal Pradesh are: i) Tirap, ii) Changlang, iii) Lohit -- Mishmis, Khamties and Singphoes, iv) Anjaw, v) Lower Dibang Valley -- Idu Mishmis, Adis and Mishing, vi) Upper Dibang Valley, vii) East Siang, viii) West Siang, ix) Upper Siang -- center of Adi society, x) Lower Subansiri -- Apatani, Nyishi and Hill Miri, xi) Upper Subansiri, xii) Kurung Kumey, xiii) Papum Pare, xiv) East Kameng, xv) West Kameng -- Monpas, Miji, Sherdukpen, and xvi) Tawang. Of these, the Lower Subansiri, Upper Subansiri, East Kameng, Tirap, and West Siang are predominantly ST districts with the proportion of ST population 80 per cent and above. These districts together share half of the total ST population of the state. Specifically, we have the following % of STs in each district:
i) Lower Subansiri 90.1%,
ii) Upper Subansiri 89.5%
iii) East Kameng 86.7%
iv) Tirap 83.7%
v) West Siang 81.7%
vi) Upper Siang 78.2%
vii) Tawang 75.0%
viii) East Siang 69.1%
ix) Papum Pare 56.6%
x) West Kameng 49.5%
xi) Dibang Valley 46.5%
xii) Lohit 38.2%
xiii) Changlang 36.2%.

From the above data, it can be seen that the combined tribes of the Adis and the Galongs (Abors) is the dominant tribal grouping followed by the Nissi (Nyishi)-Dafla. The Adi peoples are dominant in East Siang, Upper Siang, West Siang and Dibang Valley whereas the Nyishi community is dominant in Papam Pare, East Kameng, Lower Subansiri, Kurung Kumey, parts of Upper Subansiri, as well as the Darrang District and North Lakhimpur district of Assam. So far, no one from the dominant Nyishi community has become the Chief Minister of the state.

Non-Scheduled Tribes: The non-Scheduled Tribes consist of a large numbers of migrants from diverse areas of India and Bangladesh, who, while legally not entitled to settle permanently, in practice stay indefinitely, progressively altering the traditional demographic makeup of the state. Finally, populations of "Nepalis" (in fact, usually Tibeto-Burman tribespeople whose tribes predominate in areas of Nepal, but who do not have tribal status in India) and Chakmas are distributed in different areas of the state (although reliable figures are hard to come by).

c) Religion: In Arunachal Pradesh, unlike Nagaland, Mizoram, and Manipur, considerable ST population still adhere to their original tribal faith. This faith commemorates ancestors, emphasizes a belief in many spirits and folklores, and includes rituals which coincide with lunar phases or agricultural cycles. Sun and moon are worshipped as God and this God is referred to as Donyi-Polo. A law has been enacted to protect the indigenous religions (e.g., Donyi-Polo, Buddhism) in Arunachal Pradesh against the spread of other religions, though no comparable law exists to protect the other religions.

According to the 2001 Indian Census, the religions of Arunachal Pradesh break down as follows: Hindu 34.6%, Others (mostly, Donyi-Polo) 30.7%, Christian 18.7%, Buddhist 13.0%, Muslim 1.9%. Of the total ST population, we have the following breakdown: Others 47.2% (leading to 30.08% of the total state population), Christians 26.5% (leading to 16.96% of the state population), Hindus 13.1% (leading to 8.38%), Buddhists 11.7% (leading to 7.5%). The non-Scheduled Tribes can be broken into 26.3% of the state's share of Hindus, 5.5% of the share of Buddhists, and 1.7% of the share of Christians.

Individual ST wise, Khampti, Monpa, Momba, Sherdukpen, and Singpho are mostly the followers of Buddhism. Adi, Aka, Nishing, Apatani, Mishmi, Tangsa worship Donyi-Polo, whereas the Nocte practice an elementary form of Vaishnavism. Quite sizeable populations among Adi, Nishi (up to 80%), Nocte, and Wancho have been converted to Christianity. The Wancho and Nocte are Naga tribals and some have been influenced by Nagas (predominantly Christians) in Nagaland.

d) Arunachal's Problems:
1) The first problem is to speed up building infrastructure in the state, especially roads criss-crossing deep gorges and swift rivers. While the Border Roads Organisation mostly builds roads in the state, there are areas where connectivity is the state’s responsibility. Besides, the Chinese have, of late, been rapidly building infrastructure along the border that has made the Indian side nervous. While Beijing has geography on its side — the Tibetan plateau lends a distinct advantage — the Indian side neither has geography on its side nor, till recently, had the will to change the difficult terrain to its advantage by building roads.
2) The state also faces challenges in the extreme east as well in the Tirap and Changlang districts. Not only is there pressure from people to open the routes to Myanmar for trade and build roads but also to stem militancy. Both factions of the NSCN, Isak-Muivah and Khaplang, co-exist and exercise considerable influence in Tirap and Changlang. For the new incumbent, there would be pressure from Chidambaram to neutralise the militants with the state’s own police forces who would be allowed to recruit more people. There have been many fruitless efforts in the past to cap the claims of Nagalim: one such stillbirth move was to rechristen the Naga tribes of Arunachal Pradesh (34 tribes and sub-tribes in Changlang and 3 in Tirap) as Tangshangs. These groupings included Muklom, Longchang, Tutsa, Tikhak, Hawoi, Longri, Mungrey, Mushang in Changlang district and Nocte, Wangcho and Tutsa in Tirap district. Another such move was the introduction of the Arunachal Pradesh Control of Organised Crime Act (APCOCA) Bill under the Mukut Mithi government, which was then repealed under Gegong Apang.
3) The third problem is with Assam in terms of contested borders and downstream impact of big dams.
i) The most important position in Arunachal Pradesh after the Chief Minister is the Ministry of Power given the enormous hydel power resources and potential that Arunachal sits on. The state has the potential to generate around 50,000 MW and most of the projects have been commissioned on the Subansiri, the Siang, the Lohit and the Kameng. However, the issue of big dams in Arunachal has generated quite a bit of heat in neighbouring Assam, as there are fears of largescale inundation downstream. Specifically, the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) and its leader Akhil Gogoi have been preventing vessels carrying machinery for the Lower Subansiri power project to be carried through. In response to this opposition, the Union ministry of environment and forests has been conducting a study on the feasibility and environmental impact of big dams from 2009.
ii) The Nyishis in East Kameng have repeated clashes with Bodos in the Darrang and Sonitpur districts of neighboring Assam due to overlap of territory issues. Similar problems exist elsewhere on the Arunachal-Assam border also.

e) Political State:
Background information on the players:
Gegong Apang is an Adi tribal.
Dorjee Khandu is a Monpa tribal with Buddhist affiliation from Tawang.
Jarbom Gamlin is a Donyi-Polo from the West Siang district.
Mukut Mithi is an Adi tribal (?) from the Lower Dibang Valley.

After a coalition regime (between BJP and Arunachal Congress) under veteran politician Gegong Apang, the eve of the 2004 elections saw Apang shift his allegiance to the Congress yet again. With this weight, Congress stormed back to power in Arunachal Pradesh winning 34 seats in the 60-member assembly with Apang emerging as the frontrunner for the Chief Ministership. Under the Gegong Apang ministry, Dorjee Khandu who was re-elected unopposed in 2004 from Mukto constituency became the minister for Power, NCER, and relief and rehabilitation. Jarbon Gamlin who was elected from Liromoba became the Home Minister. Gamlin was dropped from the Apang ministry in March 2006. While no specific reasons were given for the ouster, the most likely consideration might have been to ensure that all sections of society get proper representation in the ministry given the upper cap of 12 on the ministry (the newly inducted ministers were said to be close to Apang and former CM Mukut Mithi).

Unhappy over the "dictatorial policies and distribution of portfolios in the council of ministers" of the Apang regime, dissidence by a majority of ruling Congress MLAs saw Dorjee Khandu take over as the Chief Minister on April 9, 2007. He continued through 2009 and won a re-election bid in 2009. Of the total 60 seats in the Arunachal State Assembly, 42 was won by the Congress, five by the NCP, five by Trinamul Congress, four by PPA, three by BJP and one is an Independent/rebel candidate from one of the mainstream parties. Meanwhile, Gegong Apang was arrested in August 2010 for alleged corruption relating to a Rs. 1000 crore public distribution system scam. Apang denied the charges and claimed they are politically motivated, though the government stated that the investigation was conducted independently and without political interference. The scam allegedly involved fradulent hill transport subsidy bills that were passed while Apang was Chief Minister without the required financial oversight.

The incumbent Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh, Dorjee Khandu, died in an unfortunate helicopter crash at Sela Pass on April 30, 2011. Khandu's government from 2007 to his untimely demise had signed scores of MOUs with private players to set up over 100 hydel power projects, the revenue from which would make Arunachal the richest state in the country. In the wake of his demise, four to five (depending on the source) contenders emerged for the Chief Ministership. They were: i) Arunachal Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) president and PWD minister Nabam Tuki, ii) former chief minister Mukut Mithi, iii) Rural Welfare and Development minister Kalikho Pul, iv) Finance minister Setong Sena and v) Power minister and government spokesman Jarbom Gamlin. While Tuki was the frontrunner as a veteran party hand, the scales eventually tipped in Gamlin’s favour as he was backed by the deceased’s family.

The high command (AICC) too gave in to the family’s wish and Jarbom Gamlin was sworn in as the new chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh on May 5, 2011. As payback, Gamlin fielded Dorjee Khandu's son Pema Khandu, 32, in his cabinet with the hope that Pema could contest the Mukto byelection. The rest of the ministers in his cabinet were erstwhile ministers in the Dorjee Khandu-government. They include Kalikho Pul, Setong Sena, Nabam Tuki, Tako Dabi, Chowna Mein, Tanga Byaling, Atum Welly, Takar Marde, Honchun Ngandam and Bosiram Siram. In terms of tribal divisions, the Nyishi community has 14 MLAs in the 60-member state assembly. Two of them are ministers and four others parliamentary secretaries in the Congress government headed by Gamlin.

f) From Crisis to Crisis:
The contentious replacement process for Dorjee Khandu has meant that the Jarbom Gamlin government has been working on a crisis mode from inception. Signs of crisis could be felt during the three-day Assembly session that concluded in late September when non-Congress MLAs demanded a CBI inquiry into the crash that claimed the life of Dorjee Khandu during the obituary references and a Congress legislator raised the issue of the deteriorating law and order situation. In the meanwhile, an explosive news report from Pradeep Thakur of the Times of India which attributed the loss of Nabam Tuki in the Chief Ministerial race to the tense relation Nyishis have with other tribal groupings brought the influential Nyishi Elite Society and the All Nyishi Students’ Union into the picture. They called for an Itanagar chalo campaign (Mega Nyishi Dignity Rally) on October 7 accusing the Gamlin government of divisive politics and collusion by being the news source in the Times of India report.

Other organizations chipped in this effort too. The All Nyishi Youth Organisation has extended support to the Nyishi Elite Society’s demand for Gamlin’s resignation. Also unhappy with the situation are the All Arunachal Youngstar United Federation, the All Arunachal Registered Contractor Association, the Arunachal Citizens’ Right, the NEFA Indigenous Human Rights Organisation and the Women Power Connect (Arunachal chapter). The Arunachal Pradesh Indigenous Tribes Union's charges also included breakdown in law and order situation, unprovoked police firing on protesters and demanded immediate termination of those involved in the police firing, among others. It flayed the state home minister Takar Marde for the breaking down of law and order while Youngstar United has sought the Centre’s intervention for restoration of normalcy.

The governance crisis reached a flashpoint with senior cabinet minister Chowna Mein alleging that he was kidnapped soon after the three-day Assembly session on September 26 and taken to the chief minister’s official residence at Niti Vihar* where other MLAs and ministers were also present and that he had to flee that very evening fearing for his life. Jarbom Gamlin not only dismissed the charges but also said he was the one to drop the minister home. The government spokesperson Setong Sena has refuted accusation of government forces being involved in the kidnapping, dubbing it as an attempt to gain cheap publicity. Mein’s accusation came at a time when several legislators, ministers and party leaders had been camping in Delhi, demanding Gamlin’s ouster. Specifically, Gamlin and Tuki have been camping in Delhi since September 27 hoping for a resolution to their contrasting demands. Gamlin wants Tuki’s wings clipped while Tuki wants Gamlin to be replaced, citing “breakdown” of governance in the state.

Some governmental sources said involvement of NSCN (I-M) rebels in the entire drama, which has derailed governance in the state, was also suspected, as some MLAs were allegedly being threatened to support some faction of the outfit or the other. Their involvement is also suspected in light of their demand for inclusion of Tirap and Changlang districts in the integrated Naga homeland, Nagalim. The Naga rebels, however, have strongly refuted the charge about their involvement in Arunachal Pradesh politics. But the voice of a terrorist group only adds so much credibility to the whole situation.

While the AICC seems to be concerned that there exists a threat by some legislators to form a regional party if there were no change of guard (as has been seen many times in the past), in the words of the BJP organisation secretary (Northeast), P. Chandra Sekhar, administration has come to a total standstill for over a month as two Congress groups lobby for leadership. BJP general secretary Tapir Gao said though the standoff was an internal matter of the Congress, it had caused a crisis for which the party leadership was responsible. As of October 29, 2011, Sonia Gandhi finally decided to remove Arunachal Pradesh chief minister Jarbom Gamlin after the central observers told her of his grave mistakes and the deep sense of disquiet among a majority of the legislators. The process of choosing Gamlin’s successor has begun and the decision will be announced in the next couple of days.

* Gamlin, however, does not stay in his official residence.

Northeast terrorist group updates (October 25, 2011)

Assam:
1) ULFA talks go past the talks-about-talks stage: Linky

The charter of demands includes constitutional amendments to give Assam greater control over its natural resources, revenue generation, participation in the planning process, ensuring a secure demographic situation, besides accelerated and balanced development. Rajkhowa told reporters before the talks that they would "explain long-standing demands of the region and the aspirations of the people". The meeting will be formal with the minutes to be signed and a notification to be issued in the gazette, official sources said.
...
The Times of India reports that the ‘Executive committee’ of United Liberation front of Asom (ULFA), which met in Guwahati city on September 16, adopted a resolution for making the changes as decided at the general council meeting held in Nalbari in July 31. The resolution is about bringing forth amendments to the ULFA's constitution, which will bring the command structure of the different battalions of ULFA by placing them under the ‘Chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa, instead of ‘Commander in Chief ‘Paresh Baruah. It is to be noted that ULFA militants have been grouped into four battalions - the 27th battalion in central Assam, the 28 battalion in upper Assam, 107 battalion in Garo Hills and 709 battalion in lower Assam. The outfit's constitution authorizes only the military wing, headed by the commander-in-chief, to command these units. But with the starting of peace talks and majority of the cadres joining the peace process, the cadres will now have to stay at development centres called Naba Nirman Kendras where they will take up various activities, agriculture being the primary one.

On the ATF faction:

Further, ULFA-ATF has reorganized its member under three groups namely Rongili, Lakhimi and Kopili. Rongili (the cheerful lady) is the identification code for ULFA-ATF’s biggest group based in Myanmar, Lakhimi (the homely lady) is the group still left behind in Bangladesh and Kopili (the speedy river) stands for the erstwhile 27th battalion, which is now temporarily based in Majuli.

More: Linky

The Paresh Barua group of Ulfa has become stronger by 105 cadres at a time when the faction was being seen as one of no consequence since the split in the outfit and resultant depletion in manpower.
...
Sources in the home department said Ulfa has four camps in Myanmar with a mobile headquarters in the Sagaing division which is shared by at least 10 militant groups of the Northeast, including the Khaplang faction of the NSCN, People’s Liberation Army, Prepak and UNLF. Sources, however, said there was no confirmation about the recent reports about the attacks on Ulfa camps by Myanmar army. Neog, on the other hand, said it was with the help of the Khaplang faction of the NSCN, the Ulfa cadres travel to Myanmar and back through Nagaland. “The NSCN-K militants provide shelter and act as guides to trek through leech-infested jungles to Myanmar,” he said.

The Security Forces (SFs) reportedly arrested on October 22 four militants, including a central committee member of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), Vimal Roy alias Dergrah Sarania, from Dalu along the Indo-Bangladesh border in West Garo Hills District. The Shillong Times adds that Dergrah Sarania was arrested in 2009 under the Bangladesh Passport act for having fake documents and spent some time in prison in Bangladesh. Sarania is also reportedly close to ULFA ‘commander’ Dristi Rajkhowa.
...
Meanwhile, a top militant of the Anti-Talks Faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-ATF), ‘sergeant major’ Biranjay Boro alias Bithn Boro alias Daju Boro from the Chirang District of Assam, surrendered before the Border Security Forces (BSF) in Shillong on September 29, reports The Telegraph. Prior to his surrender, he was working as the area commander of the NDFB, looking after Panbari reserve forest covering areas from Ulubari to Chirang District and also the border areas of Baksa and Barpeta Districts of Assam.

Haldar uncertain on Chetia: Linky
2) Bodoland: Linky

The influential All Bodo Students' Union (ABSU) took out cycle rallies from the North bank of Brahmaputra River between Kokrajhar district to the west and Dhemaji district to the East to press for their demand for a separate state for the Bodo tribe in Assam.
...
The ABSU has revived its long-standing but dormant statehood movement after being enthused by the national focus on the on-going Telangana statehood movement.

Meanwhile,

The Telegraph reports that Bodo National Conference (BNC), the umbrella organisation of the Bodo community, on September 26 finalised steps to get the Anti-Talks faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-ATF) on board for talks as early as possible and try to clear misunderstanding with the Pro-Talks faction of National democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-PTF). BNC chief convener Hagrama Mohilary said they would soon be move the Central Government interlocutor P.C. Haldar and Union ‘Home Secretary’ R.K. Singh to accord the same treatment to Daimary as given to ULFA leaders and start the peace process with the group. BNC would send a team to Udalguri on October 1 to hold discussions with the NDFB-PTF leadership.

3) DHD(J): Linky

A probe conducted by the Enforcement Directorate into the money-laundering of the DHD-J revealed that Hojai had landed property and invested crores of rupees in travel agencies, hotels, real estate and investment firms in Nepal from illegally acquired proceeds and extortion money. He allegedly also has an account at a bank in Singapore, which he had opened a few years ago under the fake name of Nirmal Rai. The militant, who allegedly holds a Nepali passport in the name of Nirmal Rai, has travelled to several countries like China, Thailand, Malaysia and South Africa on that passport.
...
Central Government has urged the Singapore government to investigate an account in a bank of that country which allegedly belongs to the Black Widow (BW) militant group ‘commander-in-chief’ Niranjan Hojai, reports The Telegraph. (Linky)

Meanwhile, Linky

The Nunisa Faction of Dima Halam Daogah (DHD-Nunisa) has decided climb down from its demand for an autonomous state and settle for a territorial council with proposed boundary that includes parts of Nagaon, Cachar, Karbi Anglong Districts of Assam and Dimapur of Nagaland. The DHD-Nunisa ‘chairman’ Dilip Nunisa said the proposed council is to be named as Dimaraji Territorial Council (DTC) and it would comprise three Districts including existing Dima Hasao and two new Districts namely Garampani District and Borail District, while Borail will include parts of present Dima Hasao and the tribal dominated areas of Cachar, including the ancient Kachari kingdom capital Khaspur. Garampani would include eastern Dima Hasao and neighbouring Nagaon District’s Dimasa-dominated of Lanka, Hojai, Lumding and Kampur and stretch up to Kachari Satra in Dakhinpat under Nagaon sadar Police Station. In addition, Borlangfar, Dhansiri in Karbi Anglong District and Dimapur plains in Nagaland should be included in the existing Dima Hasao District. Nunisa further said, “The territorial council will have 40 elected and four nominated members. The number of Assembly constituencies might be increased from the present one to four and there might be a separate Lok Sabha seat comprising the three territorial council districts.”

Another trial awaits Hojai: Linky
4) UPDS and Karbi Anglong:
Linky

The Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC) today threatened to restart its democratic move for an autonomous council as neither Dispur nor New Delhi was interested in signing the proposed accord for a territorial council with the United People’s Democratic Solidarity.
...
“If the government continues its apathy, we shall have to begin afresh our decades-long struggle for a state,” Kro said.

Centre-UPDS accord hits barrier

UPDS sources said the Centre had earlier agreed to install a neutral interim administration till the territorial council came into being, but was now unwilling to go ahead. The signing of the accord for a territorial council was scheduled for October 24 in New Delhi. Initially, the accord was to have been signed in September at Diphu in the presence of chief minister Tarun Gogoi and Union home minister P. Chidambaram. It was later postponed to October 24 and the venue shifted to New Delhi.

The Assam government as well as the local Congress-led autonomous council are said to be against its dissolution, which has led to the impasse. UPDS general secretary Saiding-Eh today said his organisation would not sign the accord if New Delhi continued to stick to its decision. “The setting up of a neutral administration of the Karbi Anglong autonomous council for the period between signing of the peace accord and holding of the next election is the formula agreed between the UPDS negotiating team and Union home minister P. Chidambaram. This agreement had set the ball rolling for preparation of the signing ceremony. The UPDS will decline to sign the proposed agreement on October 24 if the agreed formula is not adhered to,” Saiding-Eh said.
...
According to a high-level source of the Karbi Anglong Congress, preparations are on for the next council election scheduled to take place in the first week of December.

“Dissolution means the Congress will be dropped from the council. Setting up of a neutral administration will adversely affect the wave in favour of our party. The credit for upgrading the council will go to UPDS. There might be a gap between people and Congress leaders as power would be in the hands of the neutral administration,” the source said. According to the proposed peace accord, the existing council will be upgraded to a territorial council with more powers. The number of council seats would be increased from the current 28 to 45.

“We expect that the signing of the accord will follow immediately after dissolution of the existing council. The neutral administration will be there, assisted by a 12-member advisory board consisting of members from political parties. Work like delimitation and administrative reforms will be done by the neutral administration and fresh elections will be held on completion of all the work. It seems the Congress thinks they should be allowed to rule even when preparations for the territorial council are on,” said Jaysingh Engleng, a Karbi student leader.

Assam Tribune reports on October 25 that notwithstanding Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi optimism over the possibility of the Government sealing a deal with United People Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) soon, the deadlock continues with the outfit on October 24 sticking to their demand on setting up a neutral autonomous council ahead of the polls. The Chief Minister, however, appeared non-committal, when asked about the demand for dismissal of the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council (KAAC). “I have to consult the autonomous district council, as the body is constituted under the Sixth schedule of the Constitution,” he said. Also, the non-Karbi organizations, comprising different student bodies of Karbi Anglong District, have demanded the Central, State government and the UPDS which is on ceasefire to disclose the charter of demands publicly, reports The Sentinel.

Assam Tribune reports on October 24 that in the face of a fresh standoff with the United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), Union Home Minister, P Chidambaram has invited Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi to join him on October 24 (today) to resolve the deadlock.

5) On NSCN support to non-Dimasa groups in Dima Hasao: Linky

The Assam Tribune quoted the DIG of Police (southern range) Vinod Kumar of saying that confessional statements of persons arrested following the arson and killing (between October 13-16, 2011) indicated that members of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Issak Muivah (NSCN-IM) were involved in the Dima Hasao clashes. Kumar said that the NSCN helped the formation of newly created militant outfit Hill Tiger Force (HTF) and also provided weapons and training and added the NSCN militants came to NC Hills (Dima Hasao) on the eve of the recent clashes and instigated the non-Dimasa people and members of the HTF. Kumar further said that Naga outfit was involved in one of the incidents of setting fire to a village.

Followed by and preceded by Dimasa violence on Hmars:

Times of India reports that about 200 Hmar refugees from Dima Hasao District of Assam have taken shelter in Mizoram's Kolasib District along the Assam border since October 16, following ethnic clashes between Dimasas and other tribes. Many refugees belonging to Hmar, Kuki and other ethnic communities have fled Assam's hill Districts and took shelter in Mizoram due to threats of Dimasa militant groups and other militants. Violence broke out in the Dima Hasao District on October 16 as suspected tribal militants set ablaze 19 houses of Dimasas and sprayed bullets targeting fleeing villagers, killing one person and injuring three others.

6) ANLA:

SFs arrested Ajitu Khaka, ‘finance secretary’ of Adivasi National Liberation Army (ANLA) and NDFB militant, Debison Basumatary alias Hanghw, from two separate locations of Udalguri District on October 23, reports The Telegraph. Khaka was arrested from the Bhutan border in the District. The militant revealed that most of their cadres move under cover along the Bhutan border and do not stay at one place for a long time.

7) Rebels buy homes in Guwahati - NIA orders attachment of flats allegedly belonging to Manipur militant leaders Linky

The mess that is Manipur:
8) In Manipur, NSCN clashes with other Naga sub-tribes:

Kanglaonline reports that an armed encounter took place between the cadres of National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) in a forest at Guitang village under Khoupum Police Station in Tamenglong District on October 7.
...
Referring to the October 7 shoot out in Tamenglong District in Manipur where six cadres of National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) were killed by the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF), the ZUF said it was a sad incident caused by the intrusion by outsiders that had disturbed the peaceful atmosphere, reports Kanglaonline. At any cost the ZUF will safeguard the Zeliangrong land. It then said no others had instigated the ZUF on any activity carry out by the ZUF. “It is natural for us to protect our land and we are doing it with our own volition,” said the ZUF. It alleged that the NSCN-IM had given immense hardship to the Zeliangrong villages in Tamenglong District. The ZUF said the NSCN-IM only imposes its `military rule` in Zeliangrong region when there are so many Naga areas that are untouched by the latter outfit.

9) Nagas and Kukis in Manipur: Linky

Asked at a news conference about the nearly two-month long blockade on the two national highways in Manipur, the home minister said Nagas and Kukis wanted separate districts. Kuki organisations want a separate Sadar Hills district and the Nagas want the Jiribam district carved out of Imphal while also opposing formation of Sadar Hills district.

First, on the Naga demand:

On expiry of the 20-days deadline of Naga bodies given to the Central Government to make ‘alternative arrangement’ for the Nagas in Manipur, the All Naga Students’ Association Manipur (ANSAM) has called for a three-day general strike in the Naga areas, effective from October 21 (today) midnight, reports The Sentinel. On September 29, the United Naga Council had submitted an ultimatum, with a 20-days deadline, to the Central leaders demanding intervention for an “alternative arrangement” for Nagas in Manipur. Since there is no discernible move by the Central government, UNC has resorted to the three-day general strike.
...
Meanwhile, the United Naga Council (UNC) has begun its mobilization in `Naga areas` in Manipur regarding the `Alternative Arrangement` while asking the Nagas to remain prepared for any eventuality after October 19. On October 3, the UNC had threatened to agitate in the manner it had violently resorted in 2010, if the demand for the `alternative arrangement` outside the Government of Manipur is not done within 20 days counting from September 29. The UNC said it had communicated with New Delhi on September 29 in connection with the `alternative arrangement` for the Nagas in Manipur.
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Sangai Express reports that Naga civil society organisations of Chandel District will enforce economic blockade on the Imphal-Moreh road till there is an agreement between the United Naga Council (UNC) and Government of Manipur, affirmed the convenor of Chandel Naga Civil Society Coordination Core Committee, Cohring Victor on September 28. Cohring reminded all concerned that the ongoing UNC-sponsored movement is to urge the Government of Manipur that no land of the Nagas should be distorted when there is reorganisation of District boundaries or formation of new Districts.

10) Sadar Hills District Demand: Linky

The Sadar Hills District hood Demand Committee (SHDDC) on October 22 submitted a memorandum to Leishemba Sanajaoba, the titular king of Manipur, seeking his intervention into their demand to create Sadar Hills District. The SHDDC failed to turn up for further talks with the State Government on October 24 which was agreed between the two sides during the talks on October 23 night at the Chief Minister’s bungalow and decided to continue its stir.
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Meanwhile, on October 19 Chief Minister Okram Ibobi reiterated that the Government is considering the demand for upgrading Sadar Hills to a full fledged District. The Chief Minister was speaking at the reception function of Autonomous District Council (ADC) Members elected unopposed from Senapati and Ukhrul ADCs at District Council Bhavan, Sangakpham in Imphal East District on October 18.
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Also, calling upon the Prime Minister of India to intervene for non creation of Sadar Hills District in Mani-pur, the Naga Students' Union Delhi (NSUD) on October 13 held a protest demonstration in New Delhi, reports The Sangai Express. Meanwhile, Manipur Chief Minister O. Ibobi Singh met the Union Home Minister P Chidambaram on the same day.
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Meanwhile, three more women agitators who have been on a fast unto death stir demanding conversion of Sadar Hills to a full fledged District have been arrested by Police and sent to judicial custody on September 30. The arrested women are identified as Kimlhai Lhouvum (50), Hatneng Khongsai (54) and Ngamthem Gangte (54). They started their fast unto death agitation together from August 23.
...
Nagaland Post reports that a seven-member delegation of the Church Leaders Forum, Sadar Hills, on September 26 met with Manipur Chief Minister O Ibobi Singh and urged him to fulfill the demand of the Sadar Hills District hood Demand Committee (SHDDC) during a two-hour long meeting at the Chief Minister’s office chamber. Despite the firm stand of the Manipur Government not to declare Sadar Hills as full-fledged District of the State in a ‘hasty’ manner without consulting with different communities and civil society groups, supporters of the SHDDC continued to press the State Government for “full implementation of the Manipur (Hills Areas) District Councils Act, 1971 in the Sadar Hills.

Linky

The Sadar Hills District Demand Committee-sponsored blockade has earned the dubious distinction of being the longest economic blockade not only in Manipur but perhaps in the entire country. The 25 lakh blockade-saturated people of the state, however, have stopped lamenting about the inconveniences, and are learning the virtues of frugality instead. The blockade imposed on Imphal-Dimapur (NH-39) and Imphal-Jiribam (NH-37) highways, demanding creation of Sadar Hills district out of Senapati district, entered its 70th day today.

Before this, the longest blockade was imposed by the All Naga Students Association, Manipur, with full support from the United Naga Council (UNC). They blocked supply to Imphal from outside the state for 68 days against holding of district council elections as well as an alternative administrative arrangement for Nagas in Manipur last year. The blockade came shortly before the Okram Ibobi Singh government prevented NSCN (I-M) leader Th. Muivah from entering Manipur through Mao Gate, along the Imphal-Dimapur highway last year.

11) KCP: Linky

Kanglaonline reports that the ‘commander-in-chief’ of Kangleipak Communist Party-Mobile Task Force (KCP-MTF), Chirom Tiken Meitei alias Sunil Meitei who escaped from the lockup of Porompat Police Station on October 3 was killed by Imphal West Police commandos during an operation conducted at Yumnam Huidrom Awang Leikai in Imphal West District on October 11. One .9 mm pistol along with four live rounds was recovered from his possession.
Addressing media persons, Manipur Director General of Police (DGP) Y. Joykumar stated that based on specific information, the Imphal west police commandos raided the house of Longjam Shyam (56), where the militant leader Sunil Meitei was taking shelter in an underground hideout inside the house. Longjam Shyam is a retired police constable and he is presently the ‘secretary in-charge’ for home of KCP-MTF, Sunil Meitei faction, the DGP added. One family member of Longjam Shyam disclosed that Sunil Meitei was staying at their house since the night of October 9. Sunil Meitei was arrested from Bangalore on June 29 and brought back to Imphal for questioning on July 21.
...
The Telegraph reports that Sunil Meitei, a leader of Kangleipak Communist Party-Mobile Task Force (KCP-MTF) escaped from the lock-up of Porompat Police Station in Imphal East in the night of October 3. Seven Police personnel on duty at the Police station, including the officer-in-charge, have been suspended.

12) UNLF chargesheet: Linky

The National Investigation Agency is ready to file its second chargesheet against the United National Liberation Front, a banned militant outfit fighting for Manipur’s sovereignty.

The NIA had filed its first chargesheet against 19 accused, including UNLF chairman Raj Kumar Meghen alias Sana Yaima and vice-chairman Khundong Tomba alias Bikramjit alias Sunil, on February 14 this year. “Four of the chargesheeted accused who are absconding, including Tomba, have been declared proclaimed offenders,” the source said. He rued that the efforts of the security forces to bust the UNLF’s network had suffered a setback when Tomba, who was arrested in Guwahati on May 1, 2010, went into hiding after jumping bail.

The UNLF vice-chairman, who was released on bail on July 30, 2010, is now believed to be in Myanmar. Tomba was let off on bail as Assam police failed to file a chargesheet against him within the stipulated 90 days. According to law, if the chargesheet is not filed within the stipulated time, the accused can be released on bail by default. A chargesheet was filed against Tomba after the NIA took over the investigation of the case last year.

“Tomba has become a major headache for Indian security forces since taking over as the acting chairman of the UNLF, following the arrest of the outfit’s chairman Raj Kumar Meghen, on November 30, 2010. In Meghen’s absence, he is now coordinating all the anti-national activities of the UNLF,” the source said. The NIA is also probing how Tomba managed to escape to Myanmar and who were the people who helped him. The other three absconding accused whose names figure in the NIA’s first chargesheet are Brahmachari Mayum Angobi Sharma, Y. Nabinchand alias Abo and Brahmachari Mayum Gopal Krishna Sharma.

13) Paramilitary job sop for militants - Ibobi govt moves Delhi on offer Linky

Nagaland and Arunachal:
14) NSCN-KK faction in the form of an MLA:

Times of India reports that the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) issued a threat to the sitting Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) of Dimapur, Azheto Zhimomi, for "his act of open defiance and abuse of the outfit".

According to the statement by NSCN-K, Zhimomi, who is also a timber businessman, was requested by the outfit to "clear pending annual revenue accounts of his firm". In response, he invited a NSCN-K cadre, Hemail Sumi, to his official residence in Thahekhu village, Dimapur, to finalize the balance of accounts, accordingly, the cadre, as per the given appointment, went to Azheto's residence. "However, to his surprise, Azheto Zhimomi, along with members of NSCN (Khole-Kitovi) was standing at the gate and apprehended Hemail Sumi there itself," the statement alleged, adding, "with the directions of Azheto Zhimomi, Hemail Sumi was whisked away and is still being held in confinement by the NSCN (Khole-Kitovi) at the Khehoi camp."
...
The Telegraph reports that the ‘chairman’ of the Khole-Kitovi faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-Khole-Kitovi), Khole Konyak, is on a tour in Mon District in an attempt to dispel misgivings and doubts among the Konyak people about his outfit. This was Khole’s first visit to the District since formation of the faction in July, after leaders of the Khehoi designated camp of the NSCN-K (Khaplang) “expelled” leader S.S. Khaplang from the outfit in retaliation against his autocratic decision to remove the outfit’s armed wing ‘chief’, Khole Konyak, from the post.
...
Nagaland Post reports that an 18-member United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) delegation led by its ‘chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa made a courtesy call on the collective leadership of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khole-Kitovi (NSCN-Khole-Kitovi) faction ‘chairman’ Khole Konyak and ‘general secretary’ N. Kitovi Zhimomi at Khehoi camp in Dimapur on September 13. The primary purpose of the visit by the ULFA delegation was to “express and appreciate the Naga reconciliation process, which had impressed the neighbouring nations and people”.
...
The Telegraph reports that the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) said that Anti-talks faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-ATF) ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Barua is in China and not in Myanmar. Rubbishing reports of Barua being in Myanmar, taking shelter in Khaplang’s headquarters not far from the Indo-Myanmar border, kilonser (minister) for information and publicity, Wangtin Naga told The Telegraph over phone from his hideout somewhere in Mon District of Nagaland that Barua is currently in Yunnan province of China.

‘Envoy’ to the collective leadership of the outfit, Kughalu Mulatonu, quoting reports from Myanmar, said the military might have overrun a few mobile camps of the NSCN-K but there was no report of any casualty. Mulatonu said some weeks back New Delhi had supplied over 50 trucks laden with arms and ammunition to Myanmar to flush out Indian militants taking refuge in Myanmar. Mulatonu and Tikhak have expressed resentment to the Government of India for supplying arms and ammunition to Myanmar to wage war against the NSCN-K while talks of peace are on. Further, Kughalu Mulatonu blamed the Forum for Naga Reconciliation (FNR) for the split in NSCN-K in June. In a statement, Kughalu Mulatonu, blamed Wati Aier and “his FNR for the split” in the outfit in June that resulted in one faction headed by S.S.Khaplang and the other by ‘General’ Khole Konyak and N.Kitovi Zhimomi. Mulatonu described the FNR act as fratricide and demanded that it explain the real motive of exclusion of other Naga political groups in the reconciliation process.

15) On the same theme, but from a different place: Bomb blast outside Minister's residence:

Nagaland Post reports that a low intensity bomb exploded inside the compound of State social welfare minister, N. Loken, at Leimapokpam in Bishnupur District on October 18. According to Police sources, the bomb, a local made, was hurled by unidentified militants. No casualty was reported in the blast. Various militant outfits are demanding siphoning off funds released by the Centre for the scheme sponsored by it to the State social welfare department.

16) ENPO: Linky

The Eastern Nagaland People’s Organisation (ENPO) today ruled out violent means to press the Centre for a separate “frontier Nagaland” state. The ENPO, which has rejected the offer of an autonomous council for Kiphire, Mon, Longleng and Tuensang districts, said they would resort to democratic means to press for a separate state.
...
On the Centre’s rejection of “frontier Nagaland” state, the ENPO member said their movement originated from the grassroots and not from few people. He said the four districts have their own history which the Centre cannot ignore.

Mizoram:
17) HPC-D: Linky

The Hmar People’s Convention- Democratic (HPC-D) is likely to split into two factions following the impeachment of its founder president, Lalhmingthanga Sanate sometimes back.
...
The Sangai Express reports that the executive council of the Hmar People’s Convention-Democratic (HPC-D) in its emergency meeting held on September 29 resolved and removed their ‘president’ Lalhminthang Sanate. According to a press release jointly signed by secretary information John F Hmar and information publicity officer David L Hmar, Lalhminthang Sanate, without even informing and consulting the executive committee of the HPC-D signed the Deed of Agreement and merged the HPC-D as a member of the Kuki National Organisation (KNO). Declaring the Deed of Agreement signed by Lalhminthang as null and void, the HPC-D apologised to the Hmar people for allowing a traitor to lead the party and the people it represented.

Meghalaya:
18) ANVC:

Shillong Times reports that Centre’s interlocutor PC Haldar on October 19 said that the Union Government is still examining the political demands of the Garo militant outfit, Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC), which is currently under ceasefire agreement, for creation of the Garoland Territorial Council in line with that of the Bodoland Territorial Council in Assam. “We have had a discussion with the ANVC on this matter. The Union Government is still examining their demand,” Haldar, who is the Centre’s interlocutor for talks said. He however said that no specific time line has been set by the Union Government.
...
The Telegraph reports that the Meghalaya Government has sought more time to finalise the long-pending demands of the Garo hills-based militant outfit, the Achik National Volunteers Council, (ANVC) despite the Centre’s request to speed up the process. Chief minister Mukul Sangma, during his recent visit to Delhi, met Union home minister P. Chidambaram and discussed the settlement of ANVC’s demands. The key demands of the ANVC, currently in ceasefire, include creation of a Garoland autonomous council on the lines of the Bodoland Territorial Council and direct funding from the Centre for the administration of the proposed council. The Centre had earlier sought the state’s views on ANVC’s demands and subsequently a high-level committee was formed to give its final views on the issue.

The ANVC had submitted its charter of demands to the Prime Minister and the home minister besides the state political leaders. However, the State Government has viewed the demand of the ANVC to have a separate council and to have direct funding from the Centre as a contentious issue, which required further deliberation. The tripartite ceasefire agreement between the Centre, State Government and the ANVC was extended by another year effective from Oct 1, adds Shillong Times.

19) GNLA:

The Shillong Times reports that Police killed a senior Garo National Liberation army (GNLA) ‘deputy area commander’ Dilseng alias Bashish on the outskirts of Nengmaldalgre village, 6 kilometers from Williamnagar in East Garo Hills District on October 18. The ‘chief’ of GNLA Sohan D Shira who happened to be with the group narrowly escaped.

20) HNLC:

Telegraph reports that the former ‘chairman’ of Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), Julius Dorphang and a member of the special operations team (SOT) of the Meghalaya Police, Joey Marbaniang were arrested on September 26 following the assault of a surrendered HNLC cadre on September 24.
...
The Sentinel reports that Julius Dorphang, former ‘Chairman’ of the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), along with Special Operation Team (SOT), assaulted a surrendered cadre of the HNLC at Paltinum Discothèque at Polo Towerson in Shillong, East Khasi Hills District on September 24. The surrendered HNLC cadre, identified as Shemphang Khalukhi, was seriously injured in the brawl.

Meanwhile, the HNLC has issued a warning to the Nepalese (Linky) in Meghalaya to refrain from activities which affect the indigenous Khasis living in the Langpih area along the Meghalaya-Assam border in the Meghalaya side. A report says that Khasi Students Union (KSU) member Michael Jyrwa (23) and his three relatives were seriously injured in an attack by four Nepalese armed with sharp weapons at Nongsohphoh, Upper Mawprem on September 24.
...
The All Assam Gorkha Students’ Union (AAGSU) on September 24 registered its protest against the branding of Nepalese staying in Assam as illegal Bangladeshis, reports The Telegraph.
...
The Assam Tribune reports that the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) alleged that the Meghalaya Government is not sincere to hold talks with the rebel group and warned that it would continue its armed struggle. “We are not against peace. We had done our homework and had submitted a letter to the government in 2004...But the State Government is not sincere,” HNLC ‘publicity secretary’ Sainkupar Nongtraw said in an email. The reaction from the HNLC came within a week of Chief Minister Mukul Sangma saying that the Government was open to hold talks with the militant group to ensure that the issues raised by them could be addressed through constitutional means. Sangma had said that despite offering talks from various platforms, the Government was yet to get any communication from the outfit.

Tripura:
21) ATTF-NLFT:

An unofficial report said that the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) Head Quarter (HQ) located at Satcherri in Bangladesh had recently fallen to National Liberation front of Tripura (NLFT) following most of the remaining ATTF militants joining hands with their rival-NLFT, reports Tripurainfo. In this regard, unofficial sources said, “The process began last year when ATTF suffered a vertical split with Sachindra Debbarma launching a coup against the president Ranjit Debbarma. Both the ATTF and NLFT were already suffering severe financial crisis and loss of manpower and hold following steady and continuous surrenders of top leaders and lower level cadres with arms”.
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The Shillong Times reports that outgoing Director General of Police (DGP) K Saleem Ali said the insurgency is still a major challenge when it comes to internal security in Tripura though it suffered a lot during the past few years. DGP further said that All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), one of the frontline insurgent groups is on the brink of collapse as its archrival National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) had snatched away almost all weapons, according to intelligence inputs and the morale of NLFT is also very low as its cadre strength has scaled down to 100-120. However, the DGP warned that they (NLFT) are desperately trying to boost the strength by recruiting new guys during the winter keeping in mind of the next Assembly election slated for 2013. Saleem Ali further said, “We have credential inputs about the existence of around 20 hideouts in Bangladesh in spite of their efforts to flush out insurgents holed up in their soil. There are reports of procuring Bangladesh ration cards by some rebel leaders and staying there with their families”.
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Director General of Police, Tripura, K Saleem Ali on September 22 said that militants are getting themselves re-organized in Tripura with better coordination among different factions, reports The Sentinel. Ali further said that militant activities were reported recently to be more vigorous than last several months in border adjacent areas like Kanchanpur, Chowmanu, Gandacherra and Raishyabari. However, Ali stated that the insurgent groups are suffering from acute crisis of manpower since late.

22) Other connections between groups:

Union Home Ministry on October 20 said that terrorist outfits National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and Meitei extremist outfits of Manipur continue to have close links between themselves to carry out subversive activities, reports The Sentinel.
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Meanwhile, highly placed sources in the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said that the Police and Security Forces in the NE should always remain alert as the Maoists always try to capitalize on mass movements to establish their roots and the entire region, of late, is facing public upsurge on different issues, Assam Tribune reports.
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Assam Power Minister Pradyut Bordoloi said the state government has proof that Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) is trying to gain foothold in the Northeast by trying to organise protests against Hydel Power Projects, reports Economic Times. Bordoloi on October 7 said, "Opposing mega power projects and gaining foothold among people is the new modus operandi of Left-wing extremism. We have evidence to substantiate that Maoists are looking to make inroads in Sadiya area of the Tinsukia District". An officer with one of the intelligence agencies said the growing presence of Naxals [Left Wing Extremists] in the Tinsukia District, a stronghold of the Anti-Talks faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-ATF) and adjoining District of Arunachal Pradesh was a security concern. Maoists have initiated a recruitment drive in the area and are targeting the youth of the area. Bordoloi further said, "To counter Maoist influence, we are initiating developmental measures. We will install transmission line along the Dholla-Sadiya Bridge. This bridge over river Brahmaputra will cut down the traveling time between Assam and Arunachal Pradesh".

23) More on the PLA-maoist nexus: Linky
24) CIA-ISI nexus:

A former top brass of the Intelligence Bureau (IB), who did not wish to be named has accused the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of fomenting trouble in the northeast through insurgency, reports The Times of India. He said, "The ISI-CIA combination, active in the region, is fomenting insurgency to destabilize the region". He added that the ISI was helping northeast militants to create trouble and the CIA is providing support. Both CIA and ISI are working to create terrorist groups in the world." Stating that the CIA-ISI combine was providing "logistics" to the ultras of the region, he said, "We can stop this if we go for overall development of the northeast." He said "some neighboring countries" were harboring NE militants by providing them a safe haven for setting up of training camps.

25) China connection:

China and Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) supports Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), the Manipur based outfit, in its bid to form a ‘Strong United Front’ along with Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) and Kashmiri militants, reports Times of India. Officials claimed that ISI was funding PLA for supplying arms and ammunition to Maoists in the country and a "Strategic United Front" was being made to carry out attacks in India and on Security Forces in the Naxal-affected areas. An official source said, "ISI and PLA are in touch and supplying Maoists with arms. They are supposedly using China as the alternative route." The special cell of Delhi Police has learnt that the chief of the political wing of the PLA - Irengbam Chaoren - is hiding in China and is operating an arms syndicate from there. The Police have also come to know that PLA, having over 1,500 cadres, was planning to liaise with terrorist outfits based in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), including Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and separatist groups based in Jammu and Kashmir and the northeast. The revelations were made by two top PLA leaders - N Dilip Singh (51) and Arun Kumar Singh Salam (36) – arrested in New Delhi. "N Dilip Singh and Arun Kumar were arrested from a hotel in Paharganj on October 1.
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Deccan Chronicle citing intelligence inputs from top intelligence agency reports that Anti –Talks Faction of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA- ATF) ‘chairman’ Paresh Baruah received a massive consignment of arms and ammunition worth $2.5 million from China as recently as in May. The consignment includes 1,600 pieces of arms and ammunition, including AK-47s, rocket launchers, light machine guns and 800,000 rounds of ammunition were sent to Paresh Baruah from two units of National Ordinance Factory in North and South China. The consignment was loaded at South Chinese port of Beihai near Vietnam”. It was then brought to the deep sea territory of Bangladesh near Moheshkhali Island. In mid-sea the consignment was shifted to three trawlers and then further transported to Bangladesh. Sources said that two Singapore nationals carried out the job, the input further adds that these men are said to be close to arms smugglers in the region and organize transport for such activities.
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Director of Intelligence Bureau (IB), Nehchal Sandhu on September 15 formally mentioned China’s involvement in the affairs of the Northeast of India, reports The Telegraph. Sandhu in his welcome address at the conference of Directors-General of Police and Inspectors-General of Police said “This conference will review the continuing presence of (Indian insurgent) groups in Myanmar and to some extent in Bangladesh and also in respect of fresh evidence of intrusive interest of the Chinese in the affairs of (insurgent) groups (in the Northeast)”.

26) Hideouts in Bangladesh:

Outlook reports that during the biannual conference of Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) held in Dhaka from September 25 to 30, the BSF handed over a fresh list of Indian insurgents hiding in Bangladesh to the BGB and demanded action against them even as the latter ruled out presence of rebels in Bangladesh.

27) War on the Burma front:

Nagaland Post reports that, taking a step towards closer security cooperation, Yangon, the capital of Myanmar has told New Delhi to provide satellite imagery of North East (NE) militant camps based across the border in Myanmar, so that a military operation can be launched.
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Sources said India is, however, likely to press for sustained operations against the militant outfits operating out of the border areas of the country. Several of the militant outfits including National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), besides People’s Liberation Army (PLA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF), and People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), among others, maintain and operate bases in that country. The Myanmar Army had recently mounted an operation against the militant outfits and destroyed some camps belonging to NSCN-K, where ULFA had stationed their cadres.
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With Tirap and Changlang Districts of Arunachal Pradesh becoming a hotbed of militant activities, the Government has decided to launch a full scale operation in the area. Highly placed security sources told The Assam Tribune that the militants belonging to the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) normally use two major routes to enter India from the camps in Myanmar. One of the routes is through the Mon District of Nagaland and the other through the Tirap and Changlang Districts. But in recent times, the ULFA cadres are mostly using the route through Arunachal Pradesh and launching of an offensive in that area would make it difficult for the militants to maintain the shelters in the place.

Sources revealed that, both National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K) have strong bases in Tirap and Changlang and the militants belonging to the outfits are engaged in extortion and other illegal activities. The outfits even went to the extent of demanding money from some of the legislators of the area and in recent times, the NSCN-IM was also involved in meddling in the political affairs of the State. The outfit also reportedly tried to launch an offensive against the Jarbom Gamlin Government after the Chief Minister approached the Centre with the request to launch an offensive in the area. In addition to both factions of the NSCN and ULFA, the Left Wing Extremists groups are also trying to establish roots in Tirap and Changlang and concerned over the developments, the Government is planning an offensive in the area.
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Sentinel reports that United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and Maoists may try to disturb the public hearing of 3000 MW Dibang Multi Purpose Project scheduled to be held on October 24.
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According to National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) sources, at least one cadre each from NSCN-K and United National Liberation Front (UNLF) were killed as their camps were heavily attacked by the Myanmar Army in Sagaing division on September 14, reports The Telegraph. “Myanmar military has carried out a midnight attack on NSCN and UNLF camps in northern Sagaing division last night,” envoy to the collective leadership of NSCN-K Kughalu Mulatonu told The Telegraph over phone from his hideout. He said at least three army personnel were killed. “Casualty would be high on the Myanmar military side,” he claimed. He said S.S. Khaplang, chairman of the NSCN-K, is still safe at his council headquarters, heavily guarded by his cadres. Mulatonu said it would take time for the military to attack Khaplang’s headquarters but in anticipation of assault the Naga outfit has also mobilised cadres in the area. He said, in June the Government of India supplied over 60 truckloads of arms and ammunition to Myanmar. The shipment of arms and ammunition were transported to Manipur. He said the Nagas may lose the battle this time but not the war. NSCN-K sources said there had been heavy mobilisation of Myanmar army in divisional headquarters in Khamfi, Namjung and Mytkhina.
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Times of India reports that in a boost for Indian security concerns, the Myanmar army launched a second offensive on September 11 in Sagaing province against various Indian militant groups, including United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), who have their bases there. Around 250 cadres of about 10 North-Eastern militant outfits, including Anti Talk Faction of ULFA (ULFA-ATF), National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), People's Liberation Army (PLA), People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) and United National Liberation Front (UNLF), were present in camps at Sagaing in North Myanmar bordering India. Sources said the militant outfits have sent about 200 armed cadres as reinforcement to Myanmar.

Shambhu Singh, Joint Secretary (North-East) of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), said, "We haven't received any official information from the Myanmar Government. We are not sure if there is any casualty or arrests." The Myanmar Army had launched its first attack on September 7. There are reports that ULFA's mobile headquarters at Sagaing was destroyed in the attack. Unconfirmed reports said ULFA ‘commander-in-chief’ Paresh Baruah and S.S Khaplang, the former ‘chief’ of NSCN-K, managed to escape unhurt. Besides Sagaing, ULFA has three other camps in Myanmar.

28) Illegal firearms, handsets etc.:

Assam Tribune reports that illegal firearms being channeled into the North East (NE) are going to emerge as a major concern in maintaining law and order in a region already infested by dozens of insurgents and subversive groups. Apart from pistols and revolvers, semi-automatic weapons with considerable fire power are being brought into the region. At times American and European weapons have also been recovered from insurgents, which reveal the demand for high-quality firearms.

“Firearms are being brought in by several insurgent outfits on their own, or by middlemen who have contacts in Myanmar and China. Some of these are sophisticated pieces commanding good prices. These already pose a grave risk to innocent people of the region,” a senior intelligence operative said. The threat from illegal firearms is not confined to the region, as some of those can be ferried to other parts of the country. Although, it is yet to be fully corroborated, there are reports that some consignments of illegal firearms brought from across the border into the North East have found their way to the neighbouring States.
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Frequent use of illegally procured satellite phones in the North East region, calls of which can be traced by China, posed a grave threat to the National Security, reports The Assam Tribune. Although there are strong regulations for use of satellite phones in India and most of the leaders of the militant groups of the North East are using illegally procured satellite phones, while, some other influential people are also using such phones. Sources pointed out that satellite phones can be used in India only with permission from the Department of Telecommunication (DoT) and only specific type of International Maritime Satellite Organisation (INMARSAT) are permitted.

Peace dividend vs. Democratic dividend vs. Oligarchic dividend

There have been quite a few moves by the South Block in the last few weeks/months: Nepal, Burma, Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, ..., that one opinionator found the deafening silence so perplexing (LInky)

All of this is good news both for India and for the region as a whole. So why does the story not get better play in the media, in the region and globally? Perhaps because no one is making the point.

So let me try undoing this silence on a not-so-grand-scale.

1) First, some opinions on BIPPA's aftermath in Nepal:

Maoist Spokesperson Dina Nath Sharma went on to claim that the BIPPA was approved by the Standing Committee meeting of the party prior to Bhattarai’s India visit and the deal has been reached abiding by the international norms and values. On October 18, the Standing Committee meeting of the Maoists had directed PM Bhattarai not to sign any controversial deals during his India trip.

By this one move, BIPPA will ensure guaranteed security for Indian investments in Nepal which the Indian embassy can invoke as and when needed. It will allow encircled companies such as Dabur, Tata, etc., to breathe free from bashing by different factions of maoists. The fact that this deal was signed with the maoists speaks more on why it could nt have passed muster under the JHK regime or worse, with MKN. That does nt mean that we are home now.

Meanwhile, the faction led by Maoist Vice Chairman Mohan Baidya has strongly objected to the deal reached between India and Nepal. Maoist Secretary CP Gajurel, who is considered close to Baidya, tagged the BIPPA as “anti-national.”

Sooner than later, even the NC and CPN(ML) will find a need to oppose BIPPA as an "imposed" treaty which should be re-bargained to maintain the honor and dignity of Nepal.
2) In Burma, an opinionator describes the happenings as follows: Linky

The Tatmadaw, i.e. the military, has agreed to try out a different method of governance (in which a ‘ civilian' government bears day-to-day responsibility for the country's affairs), but red markers are in place. Political forces are expected to behave responsibly, ensuring that public order and territorial integrity are not jeopardised and no one asks for a full-fledged democracy in a hurry.

So it may not be the Burmans' hedging of the bets against the chinese for all one knows. It could be that, and it could in part be a realization that democratic credentials surely are important in a long-term context of the internal health of Burma itself. Which is precisely where India fits in far better than the chinese will, given that our democratic dividend (in contrast to the classical demographic dividend, I know this word will become popular very soon, so you know who to attribute it to :)) is far better. Is India mediating on behalf of Burma to let the west go slow and see reason? You bet it.
3) India's biggest problem with Burma is not its pro-chinese moves, but

Delving deeper, two key gains of the visit should be highlighted. The first relates to border security management. A whole mix of negative activities is a constant on the India-Myanmar border. Although Myanmar extends cooperation to India, it is episodic, not sustained, in nature and it is given to a suboptimal degree. This explains the two governments' agreement on “enhancing effective cooperation and coordination” between their security forces in tackling “the deadly menace of insurgency and terrorism.” It is hoped that President Thein Sein carried home a clear message and that he would deliver on this score satisfactorily.
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For the first time, a figure was put out, showing the monetary value of the assistance extended by India through various projects in recent years; it is $300 million. What is of the greatest importance — and what also constitutes evidence that South Block is listening to Track II deliberations — is the decision to offer a generous Line of Credit (LoC) amounting to $500 million for new projects.

There you go in terms of comparison: Bangladesh (1 billion US$) > Burma (500 million US$) > Nepal (250 million US$). All these are still peanuts w.r.t. 2 billion US$ to Afghanistan projects.
4) Soft loan of 250 million US$ for Nepal while 1 billion US$ reserved for Bangladesh. Much of foreign policy happens via the classical "carrots and sticks" paradigm and India is no exception to this game. Bangladesh delivered on some of the NE terrorist outfits and received a giant carrot. The Nepalese delivered on regime change and brought a moderate faction of the maoists to power. The Indians worked backroom to cool down the NC and the desperate Jhalnath Khanal faction of the CPN(ML), brokered some power for the Madhesi parties, and stitched an alliance that is as much as chalk is to cheese. Ok, curd rice to jam if you are as much sdre as you usually are. India did deliver some goodies, but it has held back quite a bit because we want results before goodies get unloaded.
5) So that sets the tongues wagging on why why Indo-BD relations are a model for the rest of the Indian subcontinent.
6) As someone wisely pointed out that real life is a zero-sum game. Rajiv Bhatia says this:

Myanmar's decision to suspend the Myitsone dam project with China as the main beneficiary, has introduced new tensions, but the two governments are likely to craft a modus vivendi soon. The India-related factor is that South Block, facing criticism, has begun to strive hard to expedite implementation of previous projects and to choose new projects that are susceptible to execution within a shorter time frame.

So the chinese will try to fix the mess on their side, and things will settle back in. But that does not take away from the South Block's gains over the last month or so.
7) As Paul Keating says in a different context (Linky),

On America, Keating is dismayed by the pivotal change in its outlook after the end of the Cold War. "When the Berlin Wall came down the Americans cried victory and walked off the field," he says. "Yet the end of the Cold War offered the chance for America to develop a new world order. It didn't know what to do with its victory. ... "
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"Well, frankly, the US didn't have the wisdom. It just wanted to celebrate its peace dividend. The two Clinton terms and the two George W. Bush terms, that's four presidential terms, have cost US mightily."

fear is that the South Block will rest on its much hard-earned laurels. There is no time for that kinda sitting back and self-kudo-ing.
8) However, with the IDSA pointing out the direction, which I interpret hopefully, as a one-way street (Linky),

India needs to increase its footprints in Afghanistan. Towards this end the recent agreements signed during the visit of President Karzai are insufficient to leave lasting imprints post 2014. India needs to increase its stakes in Afghanistan in the energy, minerals and power sectors, which have a longer presence and resultantly require construction of ancillaries like transportation, railways and housing besides the need to guard assets. Further, India must build on the training of the Afghan National Army and Police by enlarging the scope to include the provision and supply of arms and munitions, vehicles and stores as also training the Afghan Air Force. All these must be guaranteed by the US through trilateral agreements before its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I am not losing much sleep on my worries.
9) Elsewhere, as Edward Luttwak writes in the Infinity Journal on "Why China will not become the next global power ... But it could," a detente calls for a deconstruction of the aggressive military posturing and stances on perceived territorial disputes. As another wiseman Billy Joel said, we did nt unfortunately start the fire and hence, we cannot be party to a transformation from oligarchic dividend to democratic dividend. Therefore, I am loving this battle already. Bring it on! Peace!

0) As an aside, one commentator had this deep question with my comments in parantheses (Linky):

Sheikh Hasina’s visit to Dahagram-Angarpota had been on the cards for several weeks. Until three days before her visit, the Bangladeshis were told that India’s Home Minister P Chidambaram would be there to receive her. Sore and humiliated by the PM’s refusal to call Mamata Banerjee’s bluff over the Teesta (as if West Bengal's share of waters flowing through its state are to be bestowed by the Union Government to a foreign entity for their benefit), they agreed that Chidambaram’s presence would be a big gesture from Delhi.

Then it was said that Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh – said to be close to the Gandhi family, and even Rahul – would be going, along with the junior minister for home affairs, Jitendra Singh. In the end, Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, along with Singh, ended up doing the honours. No offence meant to Mr Azad, but how relevant is his presence to a meeting with a Bangladeshi leader? Where was Foreign Minister S M Krishna? What was Mr Chidambaram doing that he couldn’t drop everything and go?

Well, if Jyoti Malhotra had googled up, she would have noted that Linky

Union home minister P. Chidambaram, who was to receive her and hold a 20-minute discussion literally by the roadside when Hasina crosses the corridor, had to call off the visit because of his mother Lakshmi Ammal’s ill health. Chidambaram is in Tamil Nadu. (So Chidambaram had something urgent to attend to unless if the order of priority is Bangladesh >> Mother, not to mention that that happens too at times.)

“I will be going but I do not know if there would be discussions. I have been told only a short while back,” Ramesh told The Telegraph. (So a Minister asked to stand in for someone else may not have anything else on his plate given that he is a Cabinet Minister?!)

In Chidambaram’s absence, Hasina was received by Indian Health Minister Golam Nabi Azad and Minister of State for Home Affairs Jitendra Prasad. Indian officials worked overnight to build a helipad in the Teen Bigha corridor near the BSF outpost for the Prime Minister’s helicopter’s landing and take-off. She was given a guard of honour by the BSF.
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Can Congress President Sonia Gandhi urgently please set aside a few hours, even on a weekly basis, and ask for the files dealing with the most important foreign policy issues? In Dhaka last month, when the Teesta agreement was falling apart, everyone talked about the amazing trip Sonia Gandhi had had to Dhaka just days before. If only Sonia Gandhi were here, they said, this wouldn’t have happened; she would have phoned Mamata Banerjee and persuaded her to see reason.
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The point of this column is that there is such a terrible absence of political leadership in South Block that “chalta hai” (anything goes) has begun to take the place of creative imagination.
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Imagine if Hasina had been greeted by a galaxy of leaders from Delhi and Bengal, all lined up on the Teen Bigha. Imagine if the Indian government – the president, the prime minister, whoever – gave the young and newly married King of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Wangchuk, who comes to India in a few days to spend his honeymoon in Rajasthan, a public reception at the Red Fort or the Mughal Gardens at the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

Yes, we can imagine all these things, but then the government officeholders have to run a government instead of being the chaperones to the newly married King of Bhutan and being around when Sh. Hasina makes a point to visit the enclaves in India. Jyoti Malhotra's penchant for symbolism devoid of cool and rational logic which should ideally be what foreign policy moves are, of acts that matter more to building image than to acts that build credentials, focus on propaganda and a deep worry on what others might think of us instead of worrying about what they do think of us, etc., is what makes commentariat in India so irritating, painful and yet a big pleasure to endure. A crying call for Sonia Gandhi and pleas for "creative imagination" when full-time Foreign Service personnel work double hard to square circles without displeasing the manifold internal stakeholders is what makes this episode even sadder than it is. But then these commentators are the news-makers of India, they literally make the news, not like their job ends with reporting on events that make the news.