Nepal updates

1) The man caught with his hands in the cookie jar (the chini money offering for CPN(M) election saga) has this explanation to offer: Linky

Nepal News: Any international agent behind this?

Krishna Bahadur Mahara: It is difficult to say at this hour who is behind all this. Nepal Telecom doesn't have the technology yet to record telephonic conversations. If there are other places for this, I have no idea. It can be the work of international agencies who have access to such facilities. So, I cannot deny the involvement of foreign agents in this scandal. nepalnews.com

One eerie comment to this interview is the following:

Mr Mahara's statements have a problem. On the one hand he says that it is not his voice and that this tape is fake. In the last question, he says that Nepalese telecom companies do not have the technology to record these kind of conversations and so has to be work of some outside agency. This proves that in his mind he agrees that it is a telephone recording and not some digitally created conversation as he claims in his earlier answers. It is hard to hide the truth Mr. Mahara.

Overall, it seems more and more like Salman Butt's response to the spot-fixing "allegations" AT Linky (see esp the segment from 3:30 to 4:55).

2) Regarding the India-Nepal extradition treaty, someone (from what I can figure it is the PTI) has jumped the gun especially given the violence during Krishna Prasad Sitaula's planned visit in 2008. Why is this the case, I cant fathom. The treaty is not there till it is signed, the contents have been agreed to back and forth for god knows how long, so why, why why why, beats me.

3) Dr. Shashtra Dutt Pant says this: Linky (Terrible source from an Indic viewpoint, I agree)

Principally, there can be only three political parties, a democrat, a communist and a Vedic/oriental (mixed one).

The problem with Nepal is that too many cooks have spoiled the broth, and for far too long than tenable. As in, we have the CPN (ML) that puts itself as the communist leader. Then comes CPN (M) to the left of it. The NC already occupies the role of centrists or the Vedic/orientalists. So who fills the vacuum in the right side? It used to be the monarchy-army clique. But as of now, this side has been bruised rather badly.

Much of the blame has to be borne by the clique itself rather than anyone else. That is because, I read somewhere that the maoists and the royalists are birds of the same tripe. How that simple comparison can clear so many issues in one's mind and how that can help people understand the Indian babus' actions, I cant overemphasize this point. The babus used the maoists to throw away the old Sadbhavana-royalist cabal. It then used the same tools to usurp the maoists from the throne. Now somehow the royalist cabal (in its clipped version) has to be brought back to the limelite. How that transformation can be completed is a mystery, but hopefully that will indeed happen.

4) If you thought Nepal was a complete mystery, here is the ICG report executive summary, meant to explain what the heck is going on in Nepal. Linky (Use Adobe reader to open the .ash file)

Nepal’s transition from war to peace appears chaotic. Many commentators warn of coming anarchy; the establishment fears a collapse of the social order and the fragmentation of the nation. But such fears are misguided. Nepal is not in chaos; its transitions may be messy and confusing but they are not anarchic. There is an order within the political change, albeit one that can be mysterious and unappealing to outsiders; the resilience of Nepal’s political processes acts against fundamental transformations.

This report attempts to understand the country’s political processes and cultures and reassess the state of the peace process by examining three major questions.

Has Nepal put its civil war with the Maoists behind it? The shift from war to peace was rapid and remains incomplete. But the peace process is much stronger than it often seems. There have been significant structural transformations of the Maoist movement since the 2006 ceasefire. For example, the shift to “quantity rather than quality” for electoral politics broadened the movement but diluted its revolutionary core. Still, the Maoists remain highly organised and disciplined – and the most effective political force in Nepal.

The political atmosphere is more polarised than ever. Factions within the major parties as well as fringe groups openly call for a revision of the peace process. Neither side is likely to go back to war easily but there are also limits to how hard they can be pushed. The Maoists are by now better prepared for open politics than for war. But they will not accept sidelining indefinitely. The army has some elite support for renewed conflict. But it is unlikely to act without Delhi’s nod, which is itself improbable unless there is unexpected Maoist domination of the state.

Do the multiple, complex new forms of political violence and contestation add up to serious new conflict risks? There has been a mushrooming of political parties and groups pressing ethnic and regional agendas. There has also been a perceived increase in organised crime and political violence. Many see this as a direct consequence of the Maoist insurgency and fear the prospect of anarchy or national disintegration.

The picture, however, is not so simple. None of the new groups challenges the state in the way the Maoists did. They offer no existential threat to the political system but largely work within it; their cadres have often joined under low risk conditions for immediate benefits and lack the dedication of hard-core Maoists. Opportunism is the name of the game, and groups are making the most of the weak law and order situation during the transition.

The ways violence is used are ordered and bounded by political and economic structures. The involvement of mainstream parties, police and administration officials in profiting from violence and offering protection is becoming institutionalised. Political culture as a whole has not been transformed but has become more tolerant of overt use of force; the patterns that are being consolidated will be hard to uproot.

The only real risk of serious unrest stems from the gathering backlash against federalism and programs for political inclusion, such as quotas and reservations. Powerful elites are not keen on dismantling the unitary state and are even less happy to relinquish their privileged access to jobs, money and political power. The transition to federalism will present the most serious challenge, and conflict risk, of the near future.

What is the new role and nature of the state, as embodied by the security forces, political institutions and the civil service? How the state behaves is of critical importance in reducing conflict risks. In the most immediate terms, the state’s response to instability can be seen in policing and public security efforts. These have been undermined by a lack of strategic clarity, the politicisation of policing and internal rivalries within the security sector. In any case, security challenges cannot be dealt with solely by this sector. The roots of instability lie in entrenched political cultures that good policing alone cannot address – and that the army is particularly incapable of tackling. Defusing conflict risks in the long term will require constructive reform.

Development experts assume that the state is there to provide services and that if it fails to do so it will face a crisis of legitimacy. Nepal features high on the lists of fragile or failing states. But the state is more flexible than fragile. It endures – and has survived the conflict surprisingly unscathed, and unreformed. This is partly because its own raison d’être is not serving citizens so much as servicing the needs of patronage networks and keeping budgets flowing and corruption going. The state is dysfunctional by demand. It is slow to reform because elite incentives are invested in the status quo and public pressure is rarely acute.

Nepal’s revolution is proceeding in accordance with longstanding political rites. Party behaviour – even revolutionary behaviour – is highly constrained by a set of sophisticated unwritten rules. The Maoists are not the outsiders they sometimes appear: they share a surprising amount of political values with the other parties. But their reincorporation into the political world is still incomplete, as is their revolution.

Some more updates

1) Rail connectivity in the Northeast Linky

All the eight state capitals of the Northeast will boast of a railway link by 2016, the DoNER ministry said today. The railway ministry gave a presentation according to the North East Vision 2020 yesterday and assured the North Eastern Council (NEC) that it would connect all the capitals by 2016, DoNER minister Bijoy Krishna Handique said today. The cost of the mammoth project is Rs 17,000 crore for which all approvals have been acquired. Sources said the project would certainly be implemented as it was a national project committed by none other than Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The cabinet has also approved the budget, the sources added.

There is more for the region’s rail connectivity as the railways may commission a link between Akhaura in Bangladesh and Agartala, the capital of Tripura, by 2013. In the meantime, sources said Bangladesh had given the go-ahead for a link between a location close to the Indo-Bangladesh border and Chittagong port. The next problem now is for the state governments to pull up their socks on acquisition of land for the railways. Many states have still not been able to convince people to giving up their land.

There is hope though. “The Meghalaya chief minister yesterday promised he would clear land acquisition within three months,” an official present at the NEC meeting here said. This will put Shillong up in the list of go-getters for the railway link. At present, only Assam’s capital Guwahati is connected to New Delhi by the NF Railways. Though the rail link to Dibrugarh in north Assam passes through Dimapur in Nagaland, the state’s capital, Kohima, remains unconnected. Sources said Kohima will be connected by 2016.

Engineers of the railways have saved time by doing a GPS-based techno-survey, a time-saving departure from manual surveys that are manpower intensive and time-consuming. Handique will visit the Badarpur part of the Lumding-Badarpur section, work on which has been going on for the past several years. “We are pressing for the project to be completed at the earliest so that Agartala can also be connected,” Handique said. The Lumding-Badarpur line that passes through the North Cachar hills has one small hitch — a 3km-long tunnel. The railways plan to complete the tunnel by 2013. Connectivity to Tripura and thus, into Bangladesh, would then be complete. Complementing the new railway plan with inland waterway connectivity would increase productivity for the region manifold. The NEC meeting also declared two inland waterways on the Barak and the Brahmaputra to be national waterways.

2) A district call comes before Nagalim Linky

After the people of four underdeveloped districts in Nagaland have sought a separate state, a Naga community — Yimchungrü — living in parts of Tuensang and Kiphire — has now raised a demand for a separate district carved out of these two areas. “The Yimchungrü Tribal Council demand for separate district headquarters is genuine. The demand does not simply appear out of recent happenings but is a revelation of long sufferings,” the former president of Yimchungrü Tribal Council, S.J. Akhum, said.

He said the government believes that every community of Kiphire district was equally treated following an MoU was signed in 2003 between Sumi, Sangtam and Yimchungur communities, but it was not the case at the district level. “If Yimchungrüs were weak in passion, they could have immediately reclaimed the missing villages in the past. We understand that lives guided by the human values would be enough to permeate peace among the people but some have failed to live as good citizens and that disturbs the whole environment and affects the future lives of other communities,” Akhum said.

3) Little known facts on the Tirupur RMG industry Linky1 and Linky2

The value of exports was Rs.15 crore in 1985. In 1990, exports crossed the Rs.300-crore mark and in the next three years touched Rs.1,000 crore. Exports were at Rs.11,000 crore in 2006-2007, but it slumped to Rs.9,950 crore in 2007-08 because of the economic slowdown. It picked up steam in 2008-09 to record Rs.11,250 crore. Last year, the total value of exports stood at Rs.11,500 crore. The Tirupur Exporters' Association has set Rs.25,000 crore as the export target for 2012.

Once the quota system ended, buyers looked for big units, big facilities and also complete-compliance-certified factories. Under the quota system, we had small factories and the buyer had to go to as many as 20 exporters. In the situation prevailing now, corporate social responsibility (CSR) is built-in. Exporters are also aware of compliance requirements and of CSR. All factories have good toilet facilities and a good working atmosphere. The workplace is kept neat and clean. We also have the system of bringing workers to factories and dropping them back. Compared with the situation 10-15 years ago, now our factories have undergone a sea change. This is because we have found that unless we change, buyers will not come to us. The realisation that we have to fulfil our responsibilities has resulted in our voluntarily effecting the necessary changes in the factories, besides meeting the compliance requirements.

4) Oz updates: Greenhouse gas emission trading seems to be the issue over which the new Oz government will face its first acid-test. If the Oz government lasts till the next year, with the expected completion of the NBN pilot project in Tasmania, more sparks are expected to fly. With the beginning of the Parliament session, it seems like sledging Kevin Ruud has become a fair-game for any and every Rep from the Coalition. The following is a take on how Julia came to wrest the government. Linky

Julia offered Oakeshott, Windsor and Katter a package of measures designed to close the development gap between regional Australia and metropolitan Australia. The three independents had, on their own, come together to explore which side to support. Towards this end, the trio sought and obtained the Treasury's estimates of the public funding required to implement the poll promises of Labour and the Coalition respectively. With Abbott having initially suspected the impartiality of the Treasury in a highly surcharged political atmosphere, Julia was able to turn this issue to her advantage. In her narrative, she could be trusted more than Abbott for transparency in governance. In the end, it suited her that the independents detected what was described as “a huge black hole” in Abbott's funding plans for translating the Coalition's poll promises.

As a critical interlude in this process of decision-making by the trio of independents, an agreement was reached across the federal political spectrum for reforms in parliamentary procedures. An idea much talked about was the need for an “independent” Speaker in the House. Another strand of thought was that the constitutionally validated three-year term of any House of Representatives should not be trifled with. In such a new ambience of debate on issues, as distinct from a debate on parliamentary numbers, Oakeshott and Windsor chose Julia, while Katter sided with Abbott. Oakeshott cited the glamour or reforms – especially that of a fair deal for regional Australia – while Windsor was fascinated by Labour's plan for a national broadband network. On a parallel track, Wilkie, the whistle-blower, opted for Julia's continuance in office after she agreed to address his local concerns about hospital and health care reforms and gambling excesses. With the Greens, which secured a seat in the House for the first time, sensing that Labour, not the Coalition, would be its natural partner, the parliamentary numbers fell in place for Julia.

Meanwhile, the country as such is recovering from the replay (after the first Grand final was drawn) of the Grand final of ARL (Aussie rules footie) between the victors Collingwood Magpies and St. Kilda Saints. The NRL Grand final is to follow soon. For those who are not aware, Aussie rules or footie (as it is known) is THE premier sport in Oz. It is far more egalitarian in terms of gender, ethnicity (given the huge immigrant set in Oz -- Greeks, Italians, this that), social status etc. in contrast to its country cousin of cricket, which is more of a rich, white, male-dominated sport followed by the likes of John Howard, Pete Roebuck and Gideon Haigh. While the establishment has been vigorously trying to put Don Bradman as the epitome of Australian-ness, the country as such is fiercely ignoring the Gentleman's game, except when "Its not cricket" rules the airwaves. Even then, most of the Aussies really could nt care two hoots about cricket. It is ONLY us, folks from the Indian subcontinent, who would make a life or death heart-attacky setting out of a bloody cricket game. The rest of the Commonwealth just moves on happily. That explains why Fiji has little enthusiasm in cricket other than watching us subcontinentals make a mountain out of a molehill.

In any case, this is what an Aussie (Andrew Herrick in The Age) could think of when the word India came up: "upfront, garrulous, colorful, diverse, religious, relentlessly activist." For himself, he came up with this: "reserved, laconic, complacent, boisterous, tendentiously monocultural, and occasionally uncivil." An Australia-India tete-a-tete is mentioned as "an insular society wary of a sophisticated and complex 3000-year old civilization, and unused to dark-skinned people articulate in English."

5) NSCN senior terrorist goes missing from Nepal Linky

Nepal's biggest organisation of indigenous peoples has taken up the cause of a rebel leader from India's Nagaland State who reportedly went missing last week after arriving at Kathmandu's Tribhuvan International Airport from Bangkok. "We were alerted by an organisation in the Philippines, the Asian Indigenous People's Pact, that Ningkhan Shimray, head of the foreign affairs of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), disappeared on Monday evening after he emerged from the airport at Kathmandu," said Ang Kaji Sherpa, general secretary of the Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NEFIN).

Shimray, also known as Anthony Shing, was to have proceeded to India to take part in a new round of peace talks with the Indian government. He was to have flown to New Delhi the following day. However, even though he was allowed through by Nepal's immigration and customs authorities at the airport, he vanished soon after that.
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This is the second "disappearance" of a rebel Indian leader from the east in less three months. In July, Niranjan Hojai, leader of the Dima Halam Daogah (Jewel) organisation in Assam, was arrested in Nepal and handed over to the Indian authorities.

6) ULFA parleys reach a certain stage of raised anxiety in me Linky

Highly placed official sources told The Assam Tribune that though the ULFA leaders, who are in judicial custody, cannot be released by the government directly, their release can be facilitated if the Government does not reject their bail petitions. The Government already facilitated the release of ULFA vice chairman Pradeep Gogoi and central publicity secretary Mithinga Daimary and in the same manner, the other jailed central committee members of the outfit can be released. According to information available, in the first phase, the deputy commander in chief of the ULFA, Raju Baruah, adviser Bhimkanta Buragohain alias Mama and cultural secretary Pranati Deka may be released on bail and the other senior leaders can be released in a phased manner depending on the progress made in the efforts to start the process of talk with the militant outfit.
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Meanwhile, it is now clear that more than 30 members of the ULFA, who came back to Assam from Bangladesh recently, were compelled to do so because of the pressure mounted on them by the security forces of the neighbouring country. Security sources as well as sources close to the ULFA leaders revealed that the Rapid Action Battalion of Bangladesh launched a massive crackdown on the militants in recent times and even took action against those who provided shelter to the militants. On September 12, the personnel of the Rapid Action Battalion picked up one ULFA member Tinku Sonowal and roughed him up during questioning. The ULFA members, who were under pressure following the arrests of senior leaders including their chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa came under tremendous pressure following the crackdown launched by the Rapid Action Battalion and decided to return to the State as their security was at stake. The ULFA men along with their family members came to Assam in two batches—28 in the first batch and three in the second batch. They were received at the international border in Tura sector by a team of police officers and a ULFA leader on bail and brought to Assam. However, they were not kept in police custody and the commander of the 709 battalion of the outfit, Hira Sarania was entrusted with the responsibility of keeping them in safe places.

Meanwhile, sentinel has this to add on what will be a momentous turn on GoA-ULFA parleying: Linky

Seven more top ULFA leaders may come to Assam from Bangladesh and Myanmar after the Durga Puja in order to speed up the peace process with the government. According to intelligence sources, the ULFA leaders in question are staying along the Arunachal Pradesh-Myanmar and Bangladesh-Meghalaya borders now. They are 109 battalion’s operation ‘wing commander’ Dristi Rajkhowa, 28th battalion’s Myanmar camp in-charge Jibon Moran, political wing leader Sujit Mohan, upper Assam finance secretary Michael Deka Phukan, 28th battalion’s ‘operation commander’ Bijoy Chinese, 709 battalion ‘commander’ Heera Sarania and 28th battalion’s ‘second lieutenant’ Antu Saodang.

7) Uranium mining impasse Linky

The new acting Syiem (Chief) of Hima (Chiefdom) of Langrin, Nangtei Singh Syiemiong, emphatically said that the voice of the people would guide him while taking any decision on the proposed uranium mining in the Mawthabah-Phudkylleng-Nongbahjyrin areas of West Khasi Hills. These areas are under Hima Langrin (Langrin chiefdom).
The decision of the Syiem is critical, especially when the Centre and the State Government have long been trying to persuade the local people to allow the proposed uranium mining. When asked, the newly appointed Syiemiong stated: “We are aware of the different points put forth by the government and different agencies. However, my decision will be in line with the opinion of the people”. He gave a strong indication that the Hima would continue to oppose the proposed uranium mining in the areas under his domain.

8) An op-ed on IMDT
Of Fake Fencing and Deportation Hoax Linky

The sorry plight of the barbed wire fencing along the border not only reflects total apathy of the political parties in power in the State and the Centre, but more seriously a commitment and sinister design on the part of the powers-that-be to keep the border open for unabated influx of Bangladeshi nationals into Assam in the interest of vote-bank politics indulged in mainly by the ruling Congress while a few other parties are following suit.

While the blame for failure to seal the border with Bangladesh should be borne by both the Congress and the opposition parties, statistics drive home the point that the lion’s share of the blame goes to the ruling Congress. However, the AGP in the State and the BJP at the Centre must also bear a significant quantum of the same. On this count, seemingly Sushma Swaraj alone had the guts to speak the truth that failure to fence the border was a collective political failure.

9) DHD whinefest Linky
NDFB whinefest Linky

Updates

1) Activists to launch movement for ‘Greater Jharkhand' Linky

The ‘Greater Jharkhand' would comprise Midnapore, Bankura and Purulia districts of West Bengal and Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Sundergarh and Sambalpur districts of Orissa, besides Jharkhand, founder president of the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), Surya Singh Besra told a press conference here.

2) Mizoram: Linky

Forty five villages in Mizoram were required to be relocated due to the fencing work on the Indo-Bangladesh border. Of the villages, 29 in Lawngtlai district, seven in Lunglei district and two in Mamit district needed to be relocated, Home Minister R Lalzirliana told the assembly yesterday.

3) Linky

On September 19 Maoists abducted seven policemen from Bhopalpatnam in Bijapur, over 500 km from Raipur, close to the Andhra Pradesh border. Three policemen were killed a day later. Assistant sub-inspector Sukhram Bhagat and constables B Toppo, Narendra Bhosle and Subhash Ratre are held captive. “The Chattisgarh government has established a backdoor contact with a section of the military unit of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist). It is holding secret talks with the rebels,” the reliable source told IANS. “We are looking into their (Maoists) demands. We have conveyed our intention that the deadline should be extended comprehensively. No demand can be met with a trigger on our heads,” the source said.

Meanwhile, Linky

Some CPI(Maoist) leaders are trying to field their wives and relatives in the forthcoming Assembly polls. At some places, they are themselves planning to contest the polls slated for October-November.

Sources said that a former area commander of CPI(Maoist), Prithi Raj Hembram alias Police Da, is contesting the polls from Chakai constituency in Naxal-infested Jamui district. He is trying his luck as a Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate. The constituency is presently represented by Falguni Prasad Yadav of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). Hembram hails from Chandramandi police station area of Jamui district. In police records, Hembram was named in 13 incidents of Naxalite violence in the region. “But he has been granted bailed in all the cases pending against him,” said Jamui Superinten-dent of Police Kamal Kishore Singh.

Devta Devi, wife of Gaurishankar Jha, a former zonal commander of Maoists’ north Bihar regional committee, is all set to contest the election from Riga seat in Sitamarhi district. Devta, who is at present block pramukh of Purnahia block in Naxal-hit Sheohar district, is lobbying for a ticket from a national party. Jha, who is credited with establishing the base of the Maoist outfit in Sheohar, Sitamarhi and East Champran, is currently lodged in Sitamarhi district jail.

Another Naxalite leader Sanjeev Yadav alias Vijay ji is trying to field his wife from Gurua Assembly seat in Gaya district. A member of Bihar-Jharkhand Special Area Committee, Yadav is trying to get a Janata Dal (United) ticket for his wife. Gurua is at present represented by Shakeel Ahmad Khan of the Rashtriya Janata Dal. Though Rajya Sabha MP and national spokesman of JD(U) Shivanand Tiwari denied that any Naxalite leader approached the party for a ticket from Gaya or Aurangabad, sources said that Yadav was in constant touch with some senior leaders of the JD(U). In 1990 Gurua was represented by a top Naxal leader, Ramadhar Singh alias Guruji.

Sources said that Singh’s son Ashok is making all out efforts to get a ticket either from the JD(U) or the RJD from Rafiganj seat in Aurangabad district. Intelligence sources said that at least half a dozen Maoists or their relatives would be contesting the forthcoming Assembly poll from different constituencies. While some of them would fight the elections as the official candidates of recognised parties, many others may contest as independents.

A politburo member Kameshwar Baitha has already been elected as a member of Parliament from Jharkhand’s Palamu. Baitha had contested the elections from behind the bars.

4) ULFA update Linky

The fleeing of a group of ULFA members, of whom five are said to be close to outfit commander-in-chief (c-in-c) Paresh Baruah, from Bangladesh to Assam last Wednesday has made Dispur go euphoric. It is as if a dialogue with the proscribed outfit could start any day. On Monday, the Centre’s interlocutor for peace talks with the ULFA, PC Haldar, met Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and discussed the peace process with the outfit. Gogoi said that the ULFA members who had deserted their camps in Bangladesh were in Assam "to join the peace process and are not in the custody of the police but in their own places among their own people." Therefore, as the Chief Minister said, the development "has made us more hopeful of holding talks at the earliest." He also said that more and more ULFA members were realizing the futility of an armed struggle and deciding to come and join the peace process.

What will be the centrality of the peace process? In an e-mail statement to the media on Monday, Paresh Baruah said, "Every member of the group, including me, has no complaints about going to the negotiating table for a respectable dialogue, but without compromising our ideology. There is no pro-talks or anti-talks group within ULFA." He harped on the "unity" of the outfit and rubbished the reports of a split in it. He said that there were differences within the outfit only on "the way to going to the negotiating table, which is a minor one."

How does one construe this? A realistic interpretation of the latest Paresh Baruah discourse cannot lose sight of the fact that he is still adamant when it comes to the "ideology" of the outfit, though this time there is no mention of a "sovereign Assam" outside the ambit of the Indian Constitution. The question now is whether Baruah has already dropped the demand for a "sovereign Assam" and replaced it with the "ideology" of the outfit, implying the advocacy of the cause of Assam within the framework of the Indian democracy in relation to the discrimination meted out to the State by New Delhi, or whether by "ideology" he still means "sovereignty", merely changing the word to mean the same thing. If the former is true, with Baruah on board one fine day, the peace process might yield the desired results. But if the ULFA c-in-c is still insisting on the absurdity of a sovereignty outside the purview of the Indian Constitution, he is either sending out the message that he has nothing to do with the peace process because he cannot at all dispense with the many illicit businesses on foreign shores in which he has huge stakes, or living in a fool’s paradise, failing to see the writing on the wall.

Can a man who has been the c-in-c of an outfit such as the ULFA for the past 31 years be living in a fool’s paradise? Can he be still unintroduced to the reality of the day — that in Assam there is no support for the ULFA-defined sovereignty and the educated youth, who are the future of the State, have nothing to do with such sovereignty because they want to be stakeholders in the happening of the India of the 21st century — an India poised to overtake China as the world’s fastest growing major economy by 2015? He cannot be. Baruah is informed by the fact of life in Assam, and yet he must pretend that he comes across starkly different facts of life because he must sustain the myth that he has championed Assam’s cause all along, despite the hijacking of his outfit’s agenda by hostile foreign powers in Bangladesh after 1990. Wisdom lies in doing away with such pretence; terrorism dressed up as insurgency cannot have any ideology.

It is meaningless for the ULFA leadership, especially Baruah, to cling on to the "sovereignty" demand when they know it only too well that the Government of India will never preside over its own dismemberment. And why should it? The people of Assam already enjoy the sovereignty bestowed on them by virtue of they being citizens of a sovereign nation-state. As simple as that.

Elsewhere, Linky

Central Government’s interlocutor PC Haldar today met the jailed leaders of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) in the Central jail here for a detailed discussion on the possibility of initiating the process of talks, while, three more members of the militant outfit returned from Bangladesh last night bringing the number of those who came back to the State within this week to 31.

5) Nepal SATP update:

There are sharp disagreements between the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) and the Nepali Congress (NC) on how to end the current stalemate on Government formation, reports Kantipuronline. The NC argues that the parties should agree to a ‘package deal’ on the fundamental issues of the new constitution, critical issues of the peace process and power sharing arrangements before its candidate for the Prime Minister’s (PM) post, Ram Chandra Poudel, withdraws his candidacy. The Maoist party, meanwhile, continues to stand by its previous position that the withdrawal should precede any deal. Speaker Subash Nembang convened a meeting of the Maoists, NC, Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and Madhesh-based parties on September 28 to break the deadlock, but in vain. The ninth round of the PM poll is scheduled for September 30.

6) Gorkhaland Linky

The Adivasi and Rajbangshi outfits of the Dooars and Terai and Cooch Behar district today said they would request Mamata Banerjee to visit the regions, the invitation opening up the Trinamul Congress scope to expand its base in north Bengal where the Left Front has been losing ground since last year’s Lok Sabha polls. The Adivasi and Rajbangshi pleas also mean the Congress, which in other circumstances could have cashed in on the erosion of the Left support base, will have to yield space to Mamata.
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For Trinamul, this is a chance to make inroads in the region. Unlike in the hills where the party can at best ride piggy back on the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha, in the plains Trinamul can count on the support of the tribals to set up its own base. The 2009 parliamentary polls revealed that the Left’s vote share had gone down significantly, compared to 2004, in the tribal-Nepali dominated Dooars and Terai and in Rajbangshi-concentrated Cooch Behar.

Adivasi leader Barla said one of the reasons for the tribals moving away from the Left was that despite several representations, the state government had done little to improve the infrastructure in the region. “Besides, tea workers who have been living in the gardens for generations have not been given land rights.” A CPM minister of north Bengal said: “The tribals and the Nepalis constitute nearly 80 per cent of the population of the Dooars and Terai and that is a cause for worry for the Left. Trinamul is likely to get good support from them’’.

7) Assam Rifles uvacha Linky

The Assam Rifles has set up a full-fledged field intelligence unit with the strength of 200 personnel to gather information on militants and smuggling activities along the Indo-Myanmar border, Yadava said. The setting up of the unit assumes significance in view of growing militant activities and largescale smuggling of arms from across the border. He said the officer-dominated unit was deployed in the sector headquarters all over the Northeast and the men working in the unit are well trained to gather intelligence along the Myanmar border.

The official said there was a need to beef up intelligence along the border, as many militants from the Northeast take shelter in Myanmar after leaving Bangladesh. The men posted at the unit will mingle with the local population to gather information. “Earlier we had only an ad hoc intelligence unit and now we have the full fledged unit,” the official said. Yadava admitted that there was movement of the Northeast militants along the border, but the difficult terrain and weather conditions hampered anti-insurgency activities. He added that 26 more battalions will be sanctioned by the Centre to guard the Myanmar border, but the delay was because of the pending decision on the part of the government whether the BSF should raise these battalions or not.

8) NSCN Linky

NSCN (I-M) chairman Isak Chishi Swu is expected to land in New Delhi soon for the next round of parleys with central leaders. Sources in the NSCN (I-M) said Swu’s coming was a sign of breakthrough in the Naga peace talks. “Major general” Phungthing Shimrang, the convenor of the ceasefire monitoring cell of the NSCN (I-M), admitted that there has been a breakthrough in the talks and Swu was expected to land in New Delhi soon though the date had not been fixed yet. Sources in the NSCN (I-M) said there was a problem with Swu’s travelling documents and Delhi was trying to clear them.

9) This one is in a special category of its own, thats why we have our "Incredible India" section: Linky

Violating protocol, Magadh University vice-chancellor (VC), Arvind Kumar, interrupted Bhutan Prime Minister Jigme Thinley while he was delivering a special lecture with a bouquet of demands. The note contained three demands, including financial assistance for the construction of a building for Buddhist studies on the university premises. Thinley politely turned down the demand for the financial help, saying it was not within his rights to grant funds for any construction work. The Bhutan cabinet and not the Prime Minister has the authority to make such commitments, he said. The two other demands pertained to a book grant and the establishment of a Buddhist chair in the department of Buddhist studies. The Bhutan Prime Minister accepted them.

The incident last night on the varsity premises embarrassed several dignitaries, including Gaya district magistrate Sanjay Kumar, who told the Telegraph “Besides violation of protocol, the incident revealed that the organisers of the Magadh University function were not even familiar with the basic etiquettes. Interrupting a foreign dignitary in the middle of his speech is something unheard of.”

Review of Malcolm Gladwell's book "Outliers"

Disclaimer: Can reveal the plot of the book in some detail.

AS: Malcolm Gladwell is a son of Jamaican parents with mixed heritage (often derisively known as coming from a "mulatto" background). His father was a mathematician and his mother was a school teacher. While growing up, he enjoyed certain societal advantages (peculiar to Jamaica) and certain critical coincidences that made him who he is today. In the book titled "Outliers," Gladwell goes on to propound a theory of how genius is NOT all inspiration, and how happenstances, however unimportant and queer they may have been, play a critical and sometimes unacknowledged role in the success story behind successes.

Review: Half-way through the book, my feelings for the book and the theory in it can only be described as 'awe-inspiring.' Despite such a glorious beginning, the book left me feeling too insipid to recommend it with glorious approval. Nevertheless, the book is a gripping page-turner, and surely the NY Times thinks so too.

The book starts by explaining how individual successes cannot be attributed to smartness alone and how the environment in which the people endure and inure themselves in is equally, if not more, important. The plot starts by studying the case histories of ice hockey players, IQ geniuses, chess players, music geniuses, software afficianados, hostile takeover attorneys (this, that, you name it) in brief detail and making us feel ashamed by our own petty imperfections. Yet in the midst of all this pomp and glory, the book pulls the curtains apart and describes in further (eerie!) detail as to how these success stories fruitioned in the first place. In some sense, for a fatalist and an imperfectionist such as me, this makes perfect sense!! Not only does the theory of how geniuses could have been planted on this morbid earth by the act of nature alone sound too vain, but it also adds a sense of Fairness and Justice in the way things are, however mean such a Fairness may be.

Critical to this book is the gripping tale of how the hoi polloi tend to miss the loads of hidden perspiration behind success stories. Whether this perspiration is nourished by "luck", happenstances, sheer hard work, curious coincidences or otherwise is immaterial though. The bottomline remains that every success story has a root cause that can "logically" and coherently explain why successes indeed become successes. After this initial introduction to individuals' success stories, Gladwell takes it one step ahead and pursues the same idea to organizations and entities. To Math students in the KIPP Program, to Korean Air, to himself, etc. And that is where the generalizations get a bit hard to believe.

For example, in identifying Math students, he makes the curious case that Math stalwartness is in some sense related to how much you work hard. While I can believe that as a statement and a general one at that, I somehow do not buy his logical conclusion that this hard working theme "explains" why "Asian" students end up being very successful in Math. Of course, by "Asian," Gladwell means the Orient. While it may be completely true that on average, the "Asian" students may fare better in Math all the way through the end of high school in comparison with their American counterparts, applying the same logic to outliers in Math is utterly unwarranted.

Any cursory observation of top-ranked Math programs will show the curious composition of graduate students. While there are certain patterns in the Statistics community and even within sub-fields of mathematics easily explained by Gladwell's idea of "concerted cultivation," making a grand case for it based on Orient vs. Occident does not gel well with observed phenomena. It also does not explain why the successful performance of the "Asians" as witnessed by the high school performances not translate in a per-capita sense to higher education.

The reality may be closer to the following: Math erudition (at least at the higher level) is complicated to explain. It is a curious mix of inspiration, perspiration, starting at the right age, at the right time, on the right problem standing on the shoulders of the right person, etc. Math is a team contest howmuchever someone convinces it to be otherwise. Same is true for most academic pursuits. People stand on the shoulders of giants and sometime can see a bit further ahead. Sometime that job is made easier by low-pass filtering existing information and sieving and winnowing facts from data. Sometime that job is made easier by presenting existing information in a form that is as compressed as possible and is malleable to conversion from one form to another. Sometime that job is eased by what people call serendipity or subconscious focussing. To allocate some grand theories about "Asian" uniqueness is as abstruse as trying to fit a theory to a reality where no theory may be deemed right. It is hard to extrapolate prejudices and individual virtues into one of a collective whole, even if such a collectivization makes perfect sense from a socio-psychological and heuristic viewpoint.

To paraphrase, every success is unique, has its own justifications, has a logic. However, this logic may not always fit a firm, yet easily exposable pattern. The problem, as far as I can tell, comes from trying to fit a single simple (however well-intentioned) theory to curious anecdotes that are rather complicated in reality. Gladwell's nuances make a good credible theory, but his convincing lacks the sucker punch beyond a few tales he regales. I would like his theory to be true, but any theory needs to stand on facts, and not on rhetoric.

Updates

1) India to renovate 11th century Shiva Temple in Laos Linky

India has agreed to renovate the Vat Phou or Wat Phou temple complex in southern Laos as part of deepening cultural and historical ties which have existed between the two countries for more than 2000 years. Wat Phou is a ruined Khmer temple complex in southern Laos. It is located at the base of Mount Phu Kao near the Mekong river in Champasak province. There was a temple on the site as early as the sixth century. The summit of Phu Kao is like Linga, the phallic symbol of Shiva, thus giving it the more popular name, Lingaparvat. "It is an ongoing restoration project which started in 2009. The work restarts again after the end of rainy season in Lao. It will take seven years for completion of the project. It will also help us to understand common cultural heritage of Lao," Secretary (East) in the Ministry of External Affairs, Vijaya Latha Reddy.

The inscriptions found in the area suggest that the ancient city itself was founded around the middle of 5th century. The site is now a major centre of Theravada Buddhist worship. In the 12 century, Wat Phou and Angkor Vat formed the axis of Khmer Empire which also were linked by a 200 km long ancient road between the two heritage sites. The Archaeological survey of India team arrived in June 2009 at Vat Phou and conducted studies of foundations, drainage problems, super structural elements as well as did the documentation, recording, survey work etc. for the Northern Quadrangle of temple complex.

2) From SAAG, Linky

What made Prachanda withdraw? Firstly, there was pressure from his own party colleagues who did not like the party being associated with the farce that had been going on with each round of election. Second, the party realised too late that it had no chance of getting its chairman elected as Prime minister. There was also the feeling that it was India that was preventing other parties from voting the Maoists into power again. Third, was the danger of the UML supporting the Nepali Congress in the next election and this had to be prevented at any cost! Fourth, was the embarrassment of the audio tape and this effectively prevented them from getting sixty and odd votes by “purchase.” The veracity of the tape has not been “vehemently” denied and people who ought to know, know that the conversation was genuine! Fifth- and this can only be surmised as an advice from the Chinese! Make a tactical retreat with your revolutionary credentials in tact when things do not go well.
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The Maoists would have done this much earlier, had it not been for the stubbornness of its chairman and the emergence of the tape finally ended his ambition!

3) Assam elections: Linky

Assam politics is expected to witness major realignment of forces ahead of the 2011 Assembly polls with the year-long honeymoon between the main Opposition Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formally getting over. The AGP late on Monday snapped ties with the BJP and decided to look for smaller regional allies. It even kept its doors open for the Left parties for an electoral understanding to fight the polls scheduled early next year. Meanwhile, the BJP was quick to react. “The people of Assam wanted an alternative government this time and pinned their hopes on the AGP-BJP combine to challenge the Congress. But the AGP, despite our last-minute appeal to keep the alliance going, decided against it,” Assam BJP president Ranjit Dutta said. “The people of Assam would now decide who was wrong and who was right in the next elections. We are now working towards fighting the polls with the help of smaller parties with whom we have already opened channels of communications,” he said.

4) From SATP

Sify.com reports that the State Cabinet at a meeting chaired by Chief Minister K. Rosaiah on September 20 extended the ban on the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) and its six front organisations for a further period of one year under the Andhra Pradesh Public Security Act. The earlier ban lapsed on August 16. State Information Minister J. Geeta Reddy told after the Cabinet meet that the frontal organisations of the outfit that are banned are: Radical Youth League, Rythu Coolie Sangham, Radical Students Union, Singareni Karmika Samakhya, Viplava Karmika Samakhya and All India Revolutionary Students Federation. It may be recalled that the State Government had lifted the ban on then People's War Group (PWG) in 2004 to facilitate a ceasefire and the first-ever direct peace talks between the Government and the Maoists. During the talks, PWG merged with Maoist Communist Centre (MCC) to form CPI-Maoist.

5) GoI's "chankianness" that is often derided can be explained by the following, in fact Smt. Rao quotes chankiya himself: Linky

To “join the ranks of the developed countries,” she said, India would have to maintain “an average growth of a minimum of 7.5 per cent GDP per year (and) achieve a 10-fold increase in per capita income in the next 30 years... At this rate of growth, by 2020, we should be able to be categorised as a middle income developing country.”
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Rao recalled that “the well-springs of India’s foreign policy as we began life as an independent nation” were “issues such as decolonisation, the creation of an Afro-Asian community of like-minded countries, the emphasis on the principles of peaceful co-existence based on mutual respect between nations”, among others. Not that such issues are no more relevant. But today, “driving our foreign policy priorities and our desire for strategic autonomy are factors of external security, internal security, the need for sustained economic growth, our energy security, maritime security and access to technology and innovation.” Adding growth as a rarely articulated dimension to foreign policy, Rao said: “Where our global role and our foreign policy comes into this growth story is to ensure that we create an environment, an external environment that is conducive to an increased flow of capital into the country.”

At the same time, the foreign secretary poured cold water on the idea touted by some in India and hoped for by many more in the US that New Delhi’s foreign and security policies could be anchored to those of Washington as Indo-US relations continue to blossom. “India is too large a country to be dovetailed into alliance type of relationships. In order to modernise our country we need to, and we have succeeded in, forging well-rounded strategic partnerships with all major powers.”
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Two decades ago, an Indian foreign secretary’s speech would have been replete with praise for non-alignment and similar ideas. Yesterday, Rao pointed out that last year in September, at its Pittsburgh Summit, the G-20 “was designated as the premier forum for international economic cooperation. We see the G-20 process as a move towards a more representative mechanism to manage global economic and financial issues”.

6) Blockade in Manipur Linky

Leaders of the United Naga Council met a Manipur government representative for tripartite talks with officials of the home ministry in Delhi today. This is the first time in five months — since the UNC launched a protest over autonomous district councils elections, Mao firing and the Okram Ibobi Singh government’s stand of not allowing NSCN (I-M) leader Th. Muivah to enter the state — that it has met a representative of the Manipur government.

The UNC leaders agreed to meet the representative after Union home secretary G.K. Pillai convened the tripartite meeting at the North Block today. Manipur was represented by its resident commissioner in Delhi, Rakesh Ranjan, while the UNC team was headed by its president Samson Remei. Before the meeting, the UNC team met Union home minister P. Chidambaram.

Meanwhile, small dog bites the dust in front of the big dog, or so the saying goes Linky

Naga organisations, which have used the economic blockade as a potent tool to press for their demands, have changed tack when administered their own medicine. The Naga Students’ Federation, which has been supporting the economic blockade imposed on Manipur valley by the United Naga Council and the All Naga Students’ Association of Manipur since May, today said the All Assam Students’ Union should not use blockade as a tool to resolve the Golaghat issue. The personnel of 12 India Reserve Battalion (IRB) posted in Nagaland had beaten up some students who were participating in an AASU demonstration near Golaghat on September 15 after which the students’ body decided to impose an economic blockade on Nagaland till the culprits were punished.

The AASU, which has been imposing blockades in Jorhat and Golaghat districts since Saturday, today expanded its agitation to Sivasagar, adds our Jorhat correspondent. Over 70 AASU members blocked the Amguri-Mokokchung road (National Highway 61) at Haluating near Amguri town since 11am. The president of AASU’s Sivasagar subdivision, Manoj Lahan, said if Nagaland did not take action against the guilty cops soon, AASU might expand its agitation to other border points.

Nepal more updates and reactions

Here is the contour of the agreement between CPN (ML) and CPN (M).

Sources say, there has been an agreement to make Jhala Nath Khanal the Prime Minister if a two-third majority is created and Pushpa Kamal Dahal the Prime Minister if only a simple majority is created. However, CPN (UML) leaders have not given any official response to the Maoist claim. They have neither refuted nor supported Maoist claim of the efforts to form a coalition. CPN (UML), with 108 seats, and UCPN (Maoists), with 237, seats will have a clear majority together. If the Madhes-based parties also support them, they can form a two-thirds majority without support of Nepali Congress (NC).

One can understand the reluctance of CPN (ML) to verify such claims. Probably the Marxist-Leninist are working to pull the Madhes front, which has 82 members, into the camp. That will make it 237 + 108 + 82 = 427 > 401, needed for a two-third majority. Jhalanath Khanal had earlier claimed that he was within 10 seats of 401, before he pulled out of the race, due to last minute breakdowns. Is this a saving-face mission? Possible. If so, Jhalanath's stature could rise even within the faction-ridden CPN (ML) camp. All for the better in future bargaining. Whatever it is, the Indian camp cant resist rubbing it in, even if unofficially.

Reaction from Telegraph: Linky

But for all that, Delhi is content to have successfully circumvented Prachanda’s return as head of government and keep in place a precarious power balance in Kathmandu that it can manoeuvre from time to time. On the face of it, the pro-active Indian mission in Kathmandu allays any suggestions of an interventionist role. Speaking to a leading Nepali weekly, ambassador Rakesh Sood assumed a duly correct hands-off tone. “Political stability,” he said, “is first and foremost the task of the Nepali political leadership…. It is not Indian policy that can bring about political stability but the desire and commitment of Nepali political leadership. As in the past, India has always indicated its willingness to support the efforts of the Nepali political leaders.”

Events over the past few months, though, would suggest a higher level of Indian intercession than what ambassador Sood, or the foreign office, would admit to. Especially when it has come to blockading Prachanda’s attempts at regaining power. When first elected Prime Minister as head of the largest party following the elections of 2008, Prachanda had been welcomed by India, if only grudgingly. Delhi had woefully misread the underpinnings of that campaign and a little startled that the Maoists had swept far ahead of the competition. Even so, it greeted the Maoists’ entry into the mainstream and hoped, perhaps, that they would slowly get co-opted into accepting the parameters of working under the Indian sphere of influence.

That expectation was jolted when Prachanda sought to install his own man as Nepali army chief, a move that India not only opposed but also saw as a sign that the Maoists would assert themselves more in power than the other Nepali political parties. The crisis over the army chief culminated in Prachanda’s resignation, and the suspicions that erupted from the episode have yet to die down. Each time Prachanda has looked close to tipping the scales in his favour, something has happened to scatter away the support he shored up among non-Maoist parties, especially the four Madhesi (Terai) parties who together account for 82 Constituent Assembly seats and could well have swung things Prachanda’s way.

Delhi has effected a few sophisticated interventions. Like the sudden Kathmandu visit, between the third and fourth rounds of polling, of Shyam Saran as the Prime Minister’s roving emissary. Saran, a former ambassador widely respected in Nepal, called Madhesi members of the Constituent Assembly for dinner during his trip and is believed to have argued against a vote for Prachanda. Saran’s counsel worked.

Updates

1)

Those who are below 18 years of age may be banned from political activity in Bangladesh under a draft policy for children announced here by the government. The age and definition of a child are proposed to be revised from the present 14 to 18 years, bringing in nearly 45 percent of the country's estimated 156 million population. The new child policy seeks to target ultra poor children under the protection of its social safety net, The Daily Star said.

2)

Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL), the state-run telecom operator in India will lay optical fiber cable (OFC) through Bangladesh to connect northeast India with the rest of the world. Recently speaking on the sidelines of launching WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) services in Tripura, BSNL General Manager Debkumar Chakraborty said, "BSNL will lay optical fiber from Agartala to Dhaka. Around 12 km optical fiber is needed to connect Agartala and Akhuwra (nearest town in Bangladesh to capital Agartala) telephone exchange. We will also be extending our network from Sabroom to Chittagong (in southeast Bangladesh) sea port and then to Ashugang (in eastern Bangladesh) port. Survey works are in progress and as soon as survey is over, cost implication will be calculated and I hope by the present financial year the work really starts,” he said.

He added that apart from overcoming the geographical isolation of the Northeast the new project will give relief to the present OFC passing through the hills which often gets disconnected. Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarkar launched the WiMAX service after a cultural programme on Thursday. Tripura is second state after Mizoram in the northeastern region to have the service where the Minister of State for Communications and Information Technology Sachin Pilot first announced it last July. According to BSNL, the WiMAX service will help to serve the people better in E-governance and literacy programmes particularly in the remote inaccessible areas of the state where landline broadband service has not been set up.

3) Tracking the mining mafia-cabal + one of the best kept secret sources of the maoist gajaana: Linky

A group of ministers today approved a draft mining bill that will make miners share 26 per cent of their profits with the local people. “All our suggestions have been by and large approved,” mines minister B.K. Handique told reporters today after the GoM (group of ministers) meeting chaired by finance minister Pranab Mukherjee. The draft bill will amend the existing Mines and Mineral Development and Regulation Act, 1957 and seeks to improve the conditions of tribals, who are affected the most by mining projects.

Large-scale Maoist insurgency in the mineral-rich districts in eastern and central India — there is a heavy concentration of tribals in these regions — has forced the government to rethink its development policies and laws. “People need to be compensated, that is widely accepted. Most mining areas are remote and backward. And sharing profits would empower them to integrate at their own pace,” Handique had told a conference of miners on Wednesday. In the draft of the bill, the mines ministry has proposed a fund — a district mineral foundation — from the miners’ profit to be used for local development. If a mine shuts down or runs into losses, firms should compensate the displaced by an amount equal to the royalty they give to state governments.

Curbs on state PSUs

The draft has provisions to dilute the rules that allow the preferential allotment of mines to state-run firms. Barring some exceptional cases, PSUs will have to bid along with private firms for mineral resources. This has been done as state-run units, in many cases, have later leased out, or entered into joint ventures, with private firms to develop the allotted mines. States are the biggest culprits in taking advantage of the existing MMDR Act’s provisions to sign deals with private firms under “special reasons”. The amended mining bill is likely to be brought before Parliament during the winter session.

Industry concern

The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (Fimi) had earlier opposed the new amendments and called for spending part of the royalty they paid to states for the development of the local people. Siddharth Rungta, president of Fimi, said during Wednesday's conference that the amendments “could provide an incentive to people to remain unproductive as they would get regular income without doing any work.” Miners in recent years have made huge profits and cut employment as metal prices zoomed globally and new capital intensive practices reduced the need for labour. However, sources alleged that the miners had to share part of their profit with Maoist groups. Besides Mukherjee and Handique, the group of ministers comprises home minister P. Chidambaram, Virbhadra Singh (steel), V. Moily (law), Anand Sharma (commerce), K. Bhuria (tribal affairs), Sriprakash Jaiswal (coal), Jairam Ramesh (environment) and Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia.

WSJ adds: Linky

The proposed law seeks to cut the time taken to allocate mines and simplify a process that currently requires companies to pass through a maze of approvals from federal and state governments. Currently, miners need separate approvals for surveying deposits and prospecting and mining, but under the new law, they are expected to get automatic mining approvals once they have made a discovery after prospecting.

4) Manipur blockade continues strangely even today Linky

The United Naga Council today extended its ongoing economic blockade along national highways for an indefinite period, dashing all hopes of free flow of supply trucks into Manipur. A UNC release stated it was intensifying its agitation on National Highways 39, 53 and 150 with effect from 6am tomorrow, when the current phase of economic blockade ends, as New Delhi had failed to respond to its grievances. All these highways are supply lifelines connecting the city to the rest of the country.

This is the fourth time since April this year that the UNC has either imposed or extended its economic blockade along the national highways, disrupting the supply of essential commodities to Manipur. The All Naga Students Association, Manipur, with full backing from the UNC, had imposed the first economic blockade of the year from April 11 against holding of elections to the six autonomous district councils. The blockade was lifted on June 18. The UNC imposed the second blockade from August 4 for 20 days, reiterating nullification of the ADC election and demanding a separate administrative arrangement for the Nagas in Manipur, among other demands. The UNC then extended the blockade for another 25 days, which will end tomorrow at 6am. This is the first time that the UNC is including NH150 under the purview of the blockade. Earlier, it was mainly confined to NH39 and NH53.

NH 39 is the better-maintained and shorter of the two routes, but the former passes through Nagaland before entering Manipur while NH 53 snakes through a longer stretch. But it is in a pathetic condition – landslide-prone and has several temporary bridges that cannot withstand the weight of goods-laden trucks. Manipur truckers have continued to avoid NH 39 citing extortion by militants and other organisations.

Nepal update

From SATP:

The Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda decided to pull out of the Prime Ministerial (PM) elections on September 17, in a bid to explore new ways to end the prolonged political deadlock, reports Kantipuronline. The Maoist Chairman agreed to withdraw his candidacy for the PM’s post in a three-point agreement signed with Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) Chairman Jhalanath Khanal. During the meeting held at Gairidhara in Kathmandu, the parties have reached an agreement to initiate the PM selection process on national consensus basis.

According to Himalayan Times, Prachanda said it would be fatal to isolate and exclude his party from the political process. Addressing the Nepali Congress (NC) 12th National General Convention underway in Kathmandu, Prachanda countered statements by leaders of other parties that late Girija Prasad Koirala had brought UCPN-M into the political mainstream. “Koirala did not bring me, but together we got into the peace process,” Prachanda said drawing brief jeers from NC workers and sympathisers assembled at Khula Manch in Kathmandu. “Girija Prasad Koirala did not bring me in the mainstream politics. The peace process started with his and my joint effort,” he claimed. Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Constituent Assembly Subas Chandra Nembang said there is absolutely no alternative to consensus among political parties to diffuse the existing imbroglio the country has been stewing in.

From IDSA: Linky

A month after the visit to Nepal by Shyam Saran as special envoy of the Indian Prime Minister, a delegation of 21 senior Chinese leaders led by He Yong, vice-premier and secretary at the secretariat of the 17th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, arrived in Kathmandu on September 11, 2010 on a six-day visit. This is the highest-level Chinese delegation to visit Nepal since the beginning of the peace process. The visit also coincided with news about a controversial audio tape purportedly containing a conversation between Krishna Bahadur Mahara, International Bureau Chief of the Unified CPN-Maoist, and an unknown Chinese, in which Mahara is heard asking for 500 million rupees to buy off 50 lawmakers required to form the government under Prachanda’s leadership.
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China has always been worried about chronic political instability in Nepal and the possibility of external powers using Nepal against its strategic interests. China viewed the monarchy as the most stable, credible and dependable partner and the mainstream political parties as pro-India. The King always played the ‘China card’ effectively to counter Indian influence. Chinese security interests, which have been China’s prime concern in Nepal, were also served by the King in the past. The King wielded tremendous power as the Commander-in-Chief of the army. After Nepal became a republic, China lost its most reliable partner (Monarchy). It realized that it has to choose between two major political forces in Nepal, i.e., the democratic parties, which were mostly pro-India, and the Maoists, a large party with anti-India and anti-US sentiments.
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In this context, China was deeply concerned when six Nepalese Parliamentarians visited Dalai Lama in Dharamsala in February 2009. Only after this did China start establishing good relations with other political parties like the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) and the Madhesi People’s Rights Forum apart from the CPN-Maoist.

It is well-known that even though Maoist leaders are posing themselves as anti-Indian, most are aware that at the end of the day they will have to deal with India, and that they cannot wish away the geographical, historical, cultural and socio-economic linkages between the two countries. It is almost certain that they will temper their policies towards India once they come to power. However, for the moment, the Indian policy of preventing Maoists from coming to power and the Maoist counter-tactic of mobilising popular opinion on the basis of growing anti-India sentiments in Nepal, seem to be pushing the Himalayan country deeper into uncertainty, which will not serve the interests of either country.

Interestingly, China and India have been competing for influence along the Nepal-China border. Soon after India provided development assistance of Rs. 100 million for the remote hill region of Mustang, China responded with financial assistance worth Rs. 10 million for construction of a library, science laboratory and school building with computers in Chhoser village (adjoining Jhongwasen district of Tibet) in the same region to counter Indian influence. The ambassadors of both countries have visited the area. China is also opening China Study Centres in Nepal along the Indo-Nepal border. Out of a total of eleven China Study Centres that China has built in Nepal so far, seven are along the Indo-Nepal border. In response to the Chinese attempt to extend the railway link from Tibet till the Nepalese border, India is also planning to extend its rail links to Nepal along the border. India has announced assistance worth Rs. 10.88 billion for the expansion of railway service in five places along the India-Nepal border. The first phase of expansion is scheduled to start from Birjung of Nepal which is about 350 kilometres south of Tatopani, the place to be connected by China through railways. The power-game between China and India is thus slowly unfolding in Nepal.

In this context, the controversial audio tape incident has had its effect. It has benefited the anti-Maoist forces the most. The leak seems to have stopped the Madhesi parties from supporting Prachanda’s candidature as PM in the seventh round of voting. At a time when the Nepalese media was in overdrive to nail the Indian Embassy for its alleged intervention in Nepalese politics, the tape controversy has successfully diverted popular attention towards China.

Meanwhile NC elections has this showdown: Linky

On Saturday, a day after the 12th general convention of the Nepali Congress kicked off in the capital with much fanfare, enthusiasm and great expectations, three senior leaders filed nominations for Koirala's mantle. They are Koirala's cousin and current acting chief of the party, Sushil Koirala, Koirala's former protégé Sher Bahadur Deuba who later fell out with his mentor and split the party, and a veteran leader, Bhim Bahadur Tamang.

All three have running mates who are vying for the post of general secretary. Sushil Koirala's partner is Prakash Man Singh, a former minister who had left the party in the past with Deuba. Man Singh is also the son of late Ganesh Man Singh, one of Nepal's most respected politicians who spearheaded the pro-democracy movement of 1990 that clipped the wings of King Birendra and reduced him to a constitutional monarch. Deuba, a three-time former prime minister, made history for being sacked by King Gyanendra for his failure to hold elections in the face of the Maoist insurgency, was reinstated and then finally sacked again and jailed. Deuba's running mate is former minister Bimalendra Nidhi, whose father Mahendra Narayan Nidhi was also a senior leader of the Nepali Congress. Tamang is fighting the election with Narahari Acharya, maverick Nepali Congress MP who had challenged Koirala's authority in the past.

The election is important because the new leadership will determine which way the Nepali Congress will move in future. If Sushil Koirala is defeated, the leadership of the Nepali Congress will move out of the Koirala clan, regarded as the Gandhis and Kennedys of Nepal. Also, traditionally, the Nepali Cngress has been a staunch ally of India and especially the Indian Congress. While Sushil Koirala is perceived as following Girija Prasad Koirala's line, Deuba is regarded as being close to the Americans while Tamang's views are not known yet. Given the persistent trend in Nepal elections of not being able to throw up a winner at the first go, the Nepali Congress has made provisions to hold a second round of election Wednesday if none of the three is able to muster 50 per cent of the votes. Only after the election is over will the Nepali Congress announce its decision about the prime ministerial polls.

Ok, things seem to be unfolding rather quickly in nepal in the long break I have been on.
1) The tape leak has had its intended effect with the Madhes front firmly divided into two columns, one spearheaded by Bijay Kumar Gachhedar and the other, by Upendra Yadav.
2) Without a consensus on the Madhes front, the maoists are clear that no finite number of elections will bring them to power.
3) This has either been realized by Prachanda out of his own volition or out of Dr. Baburam Bhattarai and Mohan Baidya Kiran's reinforcements. Either way it does not matter except to understand the context of Prachanda's future stakes in the next government, whenever it is formed.
4) Thus a deal with Jhalnath Khanal to let the CPN-ML forge a "unity" government.
5) This dispensation would exactly be analogous to the Caretaker government under Madhav Kumar Nepal, except that the other dominant faction of CPN-ML will run riot for a short while.

What this would mean for India, if it turns out to be the killer move for a deal:
1) Jhalnath Khanal, being a pro-maoist politician with a bit of a hidden anti-Indian agenda will confirm the passport deal with France.
2) While a Prachanda government might have been the proverbial middle finger to Indian mission to stall a pro-maoist dispensation at the top, the Jhalnath Khanal is an acceptable status quo between the maoists and GoI.
3) The weight of CPN-ML discordance will bring down this government at some point in time in the future. I believe this is going to be within a <1- 1 1/2 year frame, but all bets are off as to whether a Constitution can be framed within the duration of the course of this new dispensation.
4) There is no way else India-china bickering is going to head but towards the depths of the Mariana Trench. There is no real deep reason to fear the chini shenanigans beyond a point as Nepal is essentially wedded to India in terms of economy, society and lifestyle, independent of rhetoric. As GoI showed, if push comes to shove, any and all yakkitak between chini government representatives and Nepali politicians can be and will be recorded, and selectively leaked as necessary. To be fair, there will be pinpricks like the MRP scandal, Kantipur scandal, Hrithik Roshan scandal, YCL issue, etc. and more.
5) It behooves Indians to stop biting the bait of a pissing contest in terms of geographical anomalies/non-entities and learning the fine art of keeping neighbors in check via the sama-dhana-bheda-danda routine. Unfortunately, this is an education in process, even for the fine salesmen and women of the South Block.

Deganga Riots

A short twitter like post....

Tapan Ghosh on the Deganga riots : http://hindusamhati.blogspot.com/

Burma Update

Sid Gau, time to come back from hiatus :)

1) An old one to start with Linky
Reshuffle in army ensures Myanmar chief superiority

More than 70 senior military positions have changed, and top brass including the army number three have retired from their posts to stand in the November 7 poll — the country’s first election in 20 years — unnamed officials said. But uncertainty remains over the future of reclusive leader Than Shwe himself, who has controlled the country since 1992. Initial reports on Friday said he had stepped down from the army — a move later denied by officials.

A source close to the regime has since said the 77-year-old and his deputy Maung Aye are “likely to retire soon”, but it is not known when they will shed their uniforms, or what roles they will then assume in the political sphere. “The country is awash with rumours,” said Myanmar academic Aung Naing Oo, based in Thailand. “There are more questions than answers right now.” High on the list is whether Than Shwe will take on presidency of the country after the elections, which have been widely dismissed by activists and the West as a charade to legitimise military rule with a civilian guise.

“Until the day when we have the next president in the not too distant future, only then will it be clear what he will do. He has a lot of different stuff up his sleeve,” said Aung Naing Oo. “What he has created is a huge monster out of this system and he has to remain in some official position to control this monster.” Whatever his next formal role, the feared septuagenarian is moving carefully to maintain strong support in both the army and the new parliament, according to Win Min, a US-based Myanmar analyst and pro-democracy activist.

“In making this biggest reshuffle, General Than Shwe appears to believe that it is better that he hand-pick the new generation of military leaders whom he considers to be totally loyal to him before the elections,” he said. Win Min said the paranoid ruler could be sidelining officials who are more loyal to number two Maung Aye. This would not be the first time he has manipulated his political and military rivals to maintain a stranglehold on power: in 2004 he sacked and then jailed his own prime minister, the reformer Khin Nyunt. “By retiring many senior officers to run in the elections, Than Shwe also appears to believe that he can control the electoral process and its outcome in a way to make sure many of these retired officers will win,” Win Min added.

Myanmar’s all-powerful army is assured a quarter of the seats in the new legislature, in addition to the military retirees who will contest the vote as civilians in the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

2) Mizzima is awash with rumors Linky

Mizzima has learned from military sources that Burma's military dictator Senior General Than Shwe will officially resign his post in September. The ageing dictator will be replaced as head of the Armed Forces by General Thura Myint Aung, a close ally in his 50's. Our sources have also confirmed that the regime's second in command, Vice Senior General Maung Aye, will also follow Burma's notorious strongman into official retirement. Maung Aye, widely known for his alcoholism and loyalty to Than Shwe will be replaced by the former Chief of the Bureau of Special Operations Lt. Gen Ko Ko. According to sources, while it has yet be announced by Burma's state owned media General Min Aung Hlaing has already been promoted to become the junta's third ranking member, Joint Chief of Staff of the combined Army, Navy and Air Force. This powerful position was formerly held by the recently retired General Thura Shwe Mann. Quarter Master General Thiha Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo will soon be relived by former Naypyidaw Command head Maj. Gen. Wei Lwin.

Most of the senior officers holding the position of Lt. Gen. have already resigned, and have been replaced by Maj. Gen. rank officers, many of whom were regional commander chiefs. It is expected that many of Burma's newly resigned senior officers will contest Burma's upcoming November election. An election which many observers expect to be rigged.

Below are the names of other newly promoted senior officers and their rankings:
Current Post --- Former Post
1) Joint Chief of Staff of the Army, Navy and Air Force --- BSO 2 chief - Lieutenant General Min Aung Hlaing
2) Quartermaster General --- Naypyidaw Command chief Major General Wei Lwin
3) Adjutant General --- Coastal Command chief Major General Khin Zaw Oo
4) Military Appointment General --- Rangoon Command chief Major General Win Myint
5) Rangoon Command --- LID 77 chief Colonel Tun Than
6) Military Intelligence Headquarters --- Southwestern Command chief Major General Kyaw Swe
7) Chief of Military Ordnance --- Deputy Defence Minister Major General Thein Htay
8) BSO 1 - Kachin State, Mandalay Division, Chin State, Sagaing Division --- Northwestern Command chief Major General Myint Soe
9) BSO 4 - Karen State, Mon State, Tenasserim Division --- Southeastern Command chief
Major General Thet Naing Win

Abbreviations:
BSO – Bureau of Special Operations
LID – Light Infantry Division

3) Wow --- I am left speechless!

Burmese strongman and former Senior General Than Shwe is preparing for a five-day state visit to China. According to the Chinese news service Xinhua, the visit, on which Than Shwe will be accompanied by his wife, is scheduled for September 7 to 11. Having last visited China in 2003 as chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the upcoming sojourn comes shortly after several senior members of Burma’s armed forces abruptly retired their fatigues and declared themselves civilians in apparent preparation for the country’s November general election. Xinhua reports the latest tête-à-tête comes at the behest of an invitation extended to the Burmese leader from Chinese President Hu Jintao.

4) Meanwhile, some good movements on the Indian side, as ephemeral as they seem:
Linky

Manipur will import 300 metric tonnes of rice from Myanmar from this month to meet the scarcity of rice in the State, official sources said today. The State Government has received the nod of the Centre to import the rice from the neighbouring country. Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Minister Y Erabot yesterday inspected godowns of Food and Civil Supply department in the border town of Moreh in Chandel district through which the rice would be imported. Manipur Government principal secretary O Nabakishore and commissioner of the Consumer Affairs and Food and Public Distribution department P Vaiphei accompanied the Minister, sources said.

5) Linky

Trade ministers from the four northeastern Indian states bordering Burma are set to meet Burmese trade and investment delegates this month in the military-ruled country in a bid to boost border trade and overcome hurdles, an Indian Chamber of Commerce official said. The bilateral meetings organised by the chamber are to be held in Rangoon and Mandalay from September 13 to 16, attended by delegates of Myanmar (Burma) Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industries (UMFCCI) and the Burmese Foreign Affairs Minister Nyan Win, the chamber official said in Kolkata. The ministers and Burmese delegates will highlight border trade problems, attempt to promote a smoother trade relationship and look for fresh investments in each other’s countries, the official said. “We are taking representatives of four states bordering Burma – Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Mizoram,” the official said.
...
In 2001, a few items were added to the list and in recent years, the Indo-Burmese relationship has been strengthened significantly. On May 12, India added 18 categories for import and export to the permitted commodities, including bicycle parts, life-saving drugs, fertilizers, spices, incense sticks, salt and stainless-steel utensils. Manipur’s border post is Moreh, opposite Tamu in Burma, while Mizoram’s gate is at Champhai bordering Burma’s Chin State. The Indo-Burmese trade road No. 2, opened in 2004, linking Zokhawthar in Mizoram with Rihkhawdar in Chin State. Mizoram mainly imports blankets, leather shoes, slippers, life-saving drugs, fertilizers and livestock such as chickens, pigs and cows, said Lalrinliana Sailo, Mizoram Minister of Trade and Commerce, who will be on the Burma trip.

Meanwhile, Burmese and Thai ambassadors visited India in June and met Bijoy Krishna Handique, 75, India’s Minister of Mines and Minister of Development of the Northeastern Regional (DoNER), in New Delhi to discuss trade, tourism and road connectivity under the Kaladan River transport project. “The ambassadors are scheduled to visit Manipur and Mizoram from September 19 to 23,” S. C. Sharma Director of DoNER said. According to official statistics, Indo-Burma bilateral trade touched US$1.19 billion in 2009-2010, a 26.1-per-cent increase year on year. India is the fourth largest trading partner of Burma after Thailand, China and Singapore. Burma’s exports to India were US$1 billion while its imports from India were US$194 million, of a total of 1.19 billion in fiscal 2009-10.

6) Linky

State-owned oil companies Indian Oil (IOC) and Oil India (OIL) are said to be in talks with the Mumbai-based Essar Group to take up joint 20 percent shares in the shallow-water (A2) gas block. The Economic Times today reports that an Indian oil ministry official has confirmed recent visits to Essar by both IOC and OIL. “They are considering to jointly pick up 40 percent stake in Essar’s gas block,” he said. The field concerned is still said to be at the exploratory stage, with estimates of recoverable reserves yet to be determined.

Incrediblo, thy name is Indian politicso!

1) Rahul oxygen for Kosi’s terror twins Linky

The Congress has unwittingly given a fresh lease of life to Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav and Anand Mohan — the incarcerated underworld operators who were gasping for survival. Last year, the two dons, whose names once struck terror in the Kosi belt, were sentenced to life terms in prison. While Pappu was convicted in the murder of CPM legislator Ajit Sarkar, Mohan was found guilty for lynching IAS officer G. Krishnaiyyah in 1994. Both are serving term in jail. Their appeal against the order is pending in the Supreme Court. Their efforts to hold their sway through their wives suffered a body blow in last year’s Lok Sabha polls. While Ranjita Ranjan, wife of Pappu Yadav, lost her Lok Sabha seat, Lovely Anand, the wife of Mohan, was crushed in Sheohar, where the BJP’s Rama Devi won.

The Congress’ attempt to find a foothold in Bihar has apparently given a new lease of life to the two “dons”, whose political obituary pundits were busy writing, till the oldest party of India roped in the duo ahead of Rahul Gandhi’s visit on Saturday. Pappu Yadav has already established his control over the Youth Congress by getting his staunch supporter Lallan Yadav elected as its state unit president and his wife nominated as the party’s spokesman. Anand Mohan, too, has succeeded in getting Lovely serve the Congress in the run up to the assembly polls. Both Ranjita and Lovely canvassed in the Kosi belt’s hinterlands to ensure the success of Rahul’s visit. The walls in Saharsa were plastered with his pictures standing in the middle of Ranjita and Lovely. The posters described Rahul as the “future leader” of India while urging the people to respond to his call for a change of rule in the state.

2) Assam elections and freebies Linky

With the 2011 Assembly election nearing and about one-and-a-half months having already elapsed for his treatment in Mumbai, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is now racing against time to implement all the 87 populist schemes before the election. From New Delhi, Gogoi today instructed all the ministers to submit detailed progress reports on the implementation of his special schemes as well as the new development schemes/projects that had been announced in this year’s annual Budget latest by September 15. He also asked Employment Generation Mission Chairman CK Das to submit the progress report on employment-related matters by September 15. According to sources, Gogoi will start discharging his duties from September 13 at Dispur and oversee the implementation of all the populist schemes set to be implemented on a war footing.

The Chief Secretary has already set targets for the departments concerned for the implementation of the schemes. The departments have been asked to send all proposals of the schemes to the Planning and Development (P&D) and Finance departments well ahead of time. The agility on the part of the Chief Minister should have got applause from all quarters, but conscious circles in the State are taking it differently. “Had Gogoi been agile over the last nine years, the picture of the State would have been different today, the flood-ravaged Lakhimpur and Dhemaji districts would have got a lot of relief, the ageing embankments in the State would have got a fresh lease of life, and the State would not have lost crores of Central funds meant for various Centrally sponsored schemes and projects for which the Centre has refused to release the subsequent instalments due to the failure on the part of the State Government to submit the utilization certificates of the first instalments of the funds released,” they said. They are surprised at the unusual haste on the part of the Chief Minister to implement the short-term schemes at the cost of the long-term ones.

3) Gorkhaland Linky

The Gorkha Janmukti Morcha today claimed “victory”, with the Centre and the state “tentatively” agreeing to hand over excise, the regional transport authority and the management of forests and the cinchona plantation to the proposed interim authority for the Darjeeling hills. All three subjects had so far been outside the purview of the Darjeeling Gorkha Hill Council, which the new set-up will replace. However, contentious issues like the territorial jurisdiction of the new arrangement, its composition and the mode of appointing its members were not part of today’s official-level tripartite talks and have been left to be sorted out at the political round. Another point that remains to be thrashed out is the tenure of the interim set-up. While the Morcha wants it to end by December 31, 2011, the state government has been insisting that it should be stretched to five years.
...
At the same time, funds meant for the Border Area Development Project (BADP) is unlikely to be given over to the new authority as it is directly under the Union home ministry. The Morcha has demanded that the DGHC workers must be regularised before the new set-up is put in place. “The state government, which was represented by the home secretary has agreed to look into the matter,” said Giri. The council currently has 6,321 casual workers. The hill party today told the state and the Centre that if peace was to be restored in the region “at least the Gorkha-dominated areas of the Terai and Dooars” must be included in the interim set-up. “Detailed discussion on this would be taken up only at the political level,” said Giri. Sources in Delhi said it had been agreed that the new body would be called Gorkhaland Regional Authority.

Meanwhile, Linky

Darjeeling MP Jaswant Singh today refused to be dragged into the controversy over the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha’s demand to include the Terai and the Dooars in the interim set-up even as an anti-Gorkhaland outfit here demanded the BJP MP’s resignation for being “biased”. The Bangla O Bangla Bhasha Banchao Committee, which had called a 24-hour bandh here to protest the official-level tripartite talks with the Morcha and which coincided with the Citu-sponsored countrywide strike, burnt the effigy of the BJP leader a few hours ahead of his first visit to town.

“Since his election, Singh has never visited Siliguri or allocated any money from his local area development funds for the plains. So far, he has only visited the hills and has only worked for the interests of the Morcha. He has allotted money for the hills only, although his constituency includes the Siliguri subdivision also,” said Mukunda Majumdar, the president of the Bhasha Committee. “We demonstrated this morning against his political stand which encourages the partition of Bengal and we want him to resign from his post. A by-election should be held to elect a new MP from the Darjeeling parliamentary constituency who does not have any such biased political stance,” Majumdar said. His outfit is against the Morcha demand for a new state and the inclusion of the Dooars and the Terai in the set-up proposed for the hills.