Updates

Than Shwe and Tata Linky

Than Shwe drops in at steel city -- Myanmar general tours Tata Motors, takes a look at truck unit
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Notably, in March 2009, Tata Motors had signed a turnkey contract with Myanmar Automobile and Diesel Industries Limited, an enterprise under the Myanmar’s industry ministry, for setting up a heavy truck plant in the country. The plant is being set up under line of credit (LoC) from the Indian government. Sources at Tata Motors said the facilities planned at the Myanmar plant included a highly flexible chassis and frame assembly line along with a cab manufacturing, painting and trimming set-up. The plant is expected to become operational by the last quarter of 2010-11, with the capacity of producing 1,000 vehicles per year.

RS Pandey vs NSCN (IM) Linky

There is no breakdown in the ongoing talks here with the rebel National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), the Central Government’s interlocutor RS Pandey said on Thursday. “Talks are being held here in a cordial atmosphere. It will resume in the coming days,” Pandey told IANS. Pandey’s statement comes amidst media reports and speculation in security circles that the talks were ‘not moving ahead’. The interlocutor said there were talks on Wednesday between him and NSCN(I-M) general secretary Thuingaleng Muivah. “Today we had informal interactions. The talks will continue in the coming days.”
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Meanwhile, reports from Kohima said the United Nagaland Council (UGC) has threatened to resume the economic blockade on Manipur if the demands of the Naga people are not accpeted by July 31 by the centre. Pandey told IANS that the UGC threat and talks with NSCN, which are proceeding in an cordial atmosphere were two separate issues.

Right when the DHD scandal was brewing strong, Tarun Gogoi has a heart ailment. Why wont I also get a heart attack when I am forced to give a talk for clearly uninterested and uncaring folks? Linky

Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is leaving for Mumbai tomorrow for further treatment at the Asian Heart Institute (AHI) following a discussion with the vice-chairman of the Institute Dr Ramakanta Panda. He is likely to be operated on August 4. The cardio-vascular thoracic surgeon arrived in the capital late last evening and drove down to the Chief Minister’s Teen Murti Marg House straight from the airport at around 1 am. He conferred with the Chief Minister, his attending physician and examined the test reports. Gogoi was discharged from Max Hospital at around 7.30 pm and was put under rest. He advised Gogoi to come to Mumbai and get himself admitted at AHI. The Chief Minister has been diagnosed with two heart blockages in blood vessels. He may need to undergo two surgeries – a bypass surgery and another surgery to replace an aortic valve.

Border fencing Linky

Border Security Force (BSF) sources told The Assam Tribune that severe erosion and floods seriously affected border management and if immediate steps are not taken to deal at least with erosion, there is every possibility of border roads and fencing eroding away in parts of Dhubri district.

My ongoing crusade against the CWG Linky

The vigilance body has already confirmed the widely held suspicion: that of an officer-engineer-contractor nexus which has minted money by delaying the award of contracts till the last minute so that an alibi could be found to jack up cost and assign the work to "favourites".
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The CVC probe has found that almost all the organisations executing works for the Commonwealth Games — PWD, MCD, NDMC, CPWD and DDA — have "considered inadmissible factors to jack up costs". Higher costs have been justified by citing "urgent and emergent circumstances". The CVC report says that despite the higher rates, poor site management, delays and quality compromises have been observed in all the projects for which technical examination has been carried out. Items not on the bid papers were incorporated and accounted for at a higher price in many of the projects. The report says contractors failed to give any "logical reasoning for the exorbitant prices" they incorporated in their project costs.

It may not mean de javu to many folks here, but here is the Asiad82 document on how cheating was done:
The Impact of the Commonwealth Games 2010 on Urban Development of Delhi ---- An analysis with a historical perspective from worldwide experiences & 1982 Asian Games -- Vinayak Uppal Linky Two telling remarks

The [1982 Asian] Games had become an emotive issue, and anyone raising questions about it was unpatriotic and a traitor. One notices this
patterns in such events worldwide, where the supporters and organisers of such events make it a nationalistic issue whereby, even when what is at stake is billions of dollars.
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Though thousands of crores were spent at the time to develop world-class stadiums, the construction undertaken for the games was largely of a shoddy and poor quality, reflecting the haste in which they were built. The Player’s building was never completed, nor was the roof of the Talkatora swimming pool.

Miscellaneous posts

1) Linky

It has emerged that professionals from India took a third of the available US work visas under the H-1B category last year. Among foreigners living in the US on a temporary basis, India made up the largest group, second only to Mexicans. Last year there were 364,757 non-immigrant Indians residing in the US and 403,793 Mexicans. Among H-1B holders, the largest group by far were from India, with 123,002 people from the sub-continent taking H-1B US work visas last year. Overall, the leading source countries for non-immigrant residents of the US in 2009 were India, taking 36 per cent of the US visas; Canada with 6.5 per cent; the UK with 4.3 per cent and Mexico, taking 4.2 per cent.

In terms of the US student visas issued, students from five countries accounted for more than half the total number. These countries were China, taking 14 per cent; South Korea, with 13 per cent; India, taking 9 per cent and Mexico and Japan, who took 8.2 per cent and 5.6 per cent respectively. California and New York headed up the list of preferred destinations for holders of temporary US visas.

2) D. Udhayakumar on choosing Devanagari for the Rupee symbol (xlated from Ananda Vikatan with due liberties on Anglais-Tam xlation) Linky -- Paid website

It was one of the conditions of the competition that the proposed symbol should reflect India's culture and ethos. I believed that only a Devanagari character could reflect the entire cultural mileau of India. Our Puranas and Vedas are all written in a script that is close to Devanagari. If you say the word "India" outside India, the first thing that hits you would be Hindi and Bollywood. Since I thought from this global perspective of India, I could not avoid the Devanagari script. Why do you see it as a contest between Hindi and other languages? See it from the viewpoint that only a Tamil showed the world the importance of Hindi.

There is a message in this for Tamils. Hindi is a language that we should not avoid. I could come up with the symbol and understand the intricacies behind its construction only because I know Hindi. All this said, I am contributing to Tamil welfare too. My Ph.D. research is centered around the Tamil language. The scripts that we have been using for writing Tamil have been changing ever since man has been around. My research is focussed on understanding the reasons behind such changes and identifying those characters that can be easily represented in a computer. We call this field typography.

Gravitas?

Guest of honour:Myanmar military ruler Senior General Than Shwe and his wife Daw Kyaing Kyaing with President Pratibha Patil and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during a ceremonial reception at the Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi on Monday.

Photo courtesy: The Hindu

Treaty on Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters

India seems to have conclued this Treaty with many countries. The base legalese of the Treaty can be understood from the India-Australia treaty. Linky

Once in force, the Treaty will create an obligation under international law for Australia and the Republic of India to provide each other with mutual legal assistance in criminal matters including search and seizure, service of documents, taking of evidence, arranging for witnesses to give evidence or assist in investigations, and assistance with the location, restraint and forfeiture of instruments and proceeds of crime.

The Treaty provides the framework within which Australia and the Republic of India will provide assistance to each other, including which authorities will make and receive requests, the information which will be required to support a request for assistance, the grounds on which a request for assistance could be refused, how requests for particular types of assistance will be managed, costs and other matters relating to mutual assistance and the operation of the Treaty.

As in all of Australia’s mutual assistance in criminal matters treaties, the Treaty includes internationally accepted safeguards, including that assistance will not be granted where a request relates to the prosecution of a person for a military offence which is not also an offence under the general criminal law. The requested country will also have the discretion to refuse a request on the grounds specified in Articles 5(2) and 5(3). For example, a request may be refused if it relates to the prosecution of a person for an offence in respect of which the person has been tried and finally dealt with or pardoned. A request may also be refused if there are substantial grounds to believe that it has been made for the purpose of prosecuting a person on account of his or her race, sex, religion, nationality or political opinion, or that person’s position may be prejudiced for any of those reasons.

The Treaty would enable Australia to refuse assistance in death penalty matters. Article 5(3)(d) provides that a request may be refused where it relates to the prosecution of a person for an offence in respect of which the punishment which might be imposed on the person may prevent the requested country from complying under its domestic laws. Subsection 8(1A) of the Act obliges the refusal of assistance if a person is charged with, or convicted of, an offence that carries the death penalty unless special circumstances exists. Subsection 8(1B) provides that the Attorney-General may refuse assistance if he or she believes that the provision of assistance may result in the death penalty being imposed. Accordingly, the Treaty would enable Australia to refuse a request if compliance with that request would be in contravention of its legislation in relation to the death penalty.

Consultation outside the Australian Government was not undertaken for this legislative instrument as it relates to criminal justice and law enforcement matters. The legislative instrument does not have a direct, or substantial indirect, effect on business and does not restrict competition. The Treaty was the subject of a public hearing by the Joint Standing Committee on Treaties, which recommended binding treaty action be taken in Report 110, tabled on 15 March 2010. The Regulations are a legislative instrument for the purposes of the Legislative Instruments Act 2003.

The Regulations commence on the day the Treaty enters into force for Australia.
In accordance with Article 23 of the Treaty, the two countries must inform each other in writing of the completion of domestic implementation. The Treaty will enter into force thirty days after the date of the latter communication.

Comment: If one reads between the lines, India will pay Burma for the costs accrued in maintaining security in the border areas of Nagaland, Manipur and Arunachal. This may force Burma's "helpless" hand in not going after the NSCN (K), ULFA and NDFB. With the squeeze applied in three B-directions: BD, Burma and Bhutan, hopefully some new surrenders could happen. Or folks could just randomly appear at the Dawki border overnight just being fed up of running from the long arm of the law.

Regarding Than Shwe visit and Vietnam relations

Reply to Sid Gau:

Two comments:
1) The itin seems to be:
Sunday - Checks in at 10:30 AM at Royal Residency hotel near the Bodhgaya international airport. Visits the Mahabodhi temple with wife. Makes visit to Sarnath and Varanasi.

Monday - Arrives at the Mahabodhi temple in Bodhgaya at 5 AM, offers prayers and meditates for 5 hours. Checks out from the hotel at 12:45 PM.

Travel to New Delhi and is received by Preneet Kaur at the Indira Gandhi airport.

Checks in at ITC Maurya Hotel at about 6:30 PM.

Tuesday - As a guest of Pratibha Patil, he is accorded a ceremonial reception in the forecourt of Rashtrapati Bhavan. Pratibha Patil hosts a banquet in his honour. He is then called upon by M. Hamid Ansari, S. M. Krishna, and Sushma Swaraj. He then has a meeting with Dr. Manmohan Singh, which was followed by delegation level talks. Both MMS and Than Shwe witness the signing of five agreements concluded by the delegations.

Wednesday - Flies early morning to Hyderabad to visit the Tata Nano factory.

Thursday - Departs to Burma.

Comment: I did not see the PM make an exception to protocol and receive Than Shwe. He did meet him one on one. You know, symbolism has a lot of gravitas to both parties: US and Burma. We still seem cautious in certain matters, even if many would just be assured by the signals (both said and unsaid).
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2) I am mostly keen on the contents of the "Treaty on Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters" signed by PC and U Nyan Win.
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India, Vietnam agree to firm up defence ties Linky

Gen. Singh, marking the first visit to Vietnam by an Indian Army Chief in over a decade, also met his counterpart there, Deputy Chief of General Staff Pham Hong Loi, for talks on follow-up action. Two areas spotted for immediate cooperation were training of military personnel and dialogue between experts on strategic affairs on both sides.
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Defence Minister A. K. Antony is expected to visit Vietnam in October to participate in the first-ever regional meeting of political leaders in the defence field.

General Than Shwe is visting India

I see it as a positive sign that General Than Shwe is visiting desh in the guise of paying a two day pilgrimate to Bodh Gaya. As per reports he will be in desh for 5 days. General rarely travels outside Burma; and this visit is important as Burma tries to balance China and India. Wen Jiabo, the Chinese premier, visited Burma just about a month ago. Is China sending a message to India via Burma? Is Unkil sending message to Burma via India? We will see what happens in this visit. Clinton memsaheb has been vocal about human rights. Nothing new there. Let us see what happens in this visit.

I plan to get a small report out on this vizit.

Updates

1) Integration of the India-BD-Bhutan-Nepal power grids is one of those best-kept secret of Ind-BD relations, a quid pro quo if there is on transit, tariffs and telecom. Linky

Energy-starved Bangladesh has inked a landmark 35-year power transmission deal with India for the import of 250 megawatt electricity. The import of power is expected to start by late 2012. The state-run Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) yesterday signed the deal with the Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (PGCIL) at a ceremony in Dhaka. The agreement keeps the provision for Bangladesh to export power to India in the future while PGCIL was tasked to construct, own, operate and maintain a 400-KV double-circuit line to exchange 500-MW power between the two neighbouring countries soon after the system is launched.

On J-e-I happenings: Linky

A Bangladesh war crimes tribunal today issued arrest warrants against four detained leaders of the country’s largest Islamic party for alleged genocide during the 1971 liberation struggle that left millions dead during a bloody nine-month fight for independence.
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The tribunal office, in the Old High Court complex in capital Dhaka, wore a sombre look as the panel issued the warrants against Jamaat chief Matiur Rahman Nizami, secretary-general Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujahid, and assistant secretaries-general Mohammed Kamaruzzaman and Abdul Quader Molla. Nizami and Mujahid had allegedly led the Al-Badr force, a Jamaat militia believed to have slaughtered a number of Bengali intellectuals, including university professors, just before the December 16, 1971, surrender of Pakistani troops. Molla, according to a 1990 report of the People’s Enquiry Commission, was known as “butcher” in the Dhaka suburb of Mirpur in 1971.

All four were detained last month on charges ranging from obstructing police to sedition. The warrants would ensure they don’t go scot-free after getting bail for these offences, sources said. The order came a day after the prosecution submitted a petition to the tribunal to keep the detained Jamaat leaders in confinement “in the interest of smooth investigation”. “This is a red letter day... the court order has reflected the aspirations of the people. It is a matter of pride for the Bengali nation,” chief of the prosecution team Golam Arif Tipu said after the hearing.

“Evidence might be destroyed if they stay free which might hinder investigations. The arrest warrants need to be issued to assist investigations. They were active in committing crimes, including killings, genocide, looting, rape, arson as the collaborators of the occupation army at different places of Bangladesh during the liberation war.” According to official figures, about 3 million people were killed during the war, some 2,00,000 women were raped and millions were forced to flee their homes.

Elsewhere, Linky

Cattle smuggling to Bangladesh always remains a major cause of concern, but what is more disturbing is that items distributed through the Public Distribution System (PDS) at subsidized rates to poor families as well as seeds distributed free of cost to the farmers are also being smuggled out to the neighbouring country. Highly placed security sources told The Assam Tribune that a number of PDS items, particularly blue kerosene and sugar are being smuggled out to Bangladesh, which is a major cause of concern. Sources said that there should be a proper survey of the people living in the char areas located near the international border and ration cards should be issued accordingly so that the allocation of food items is fully need-based. Only the Border Security Force (BSF) cannot stop smuggling of PDS items as it is done in small quantities and not in bulk and there is need for coordination among the district administration, police and the BSF to check the menace.
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Sources said that to improve the situation, the work of fencing the international border should be expedited and there should be a second line of defence behind the BSF all along the international border. More police stations can be set up on the banks of the river Brahmaputra so that the riverine border is guarded properly, while security vigil on the chars needs to be intensified immediately, sources said. It may be mentioned here that the BSF has also been stressing the need for a second line of defence to improve border management and the issue has been raised by the senior officers of the border guarding force on different occasions at various levels.

2) A change in strategy on tackling maoists?! Linky

The joint forces today gunned down six Maoists, including a top leader and a woman, in an operation reflecting a nascent strategy shift: the troops could increasingly be carrying out risky night operations for bigger success against the rebels.

More on Sidhu Soren from Linky

Sidhu Soren, the secretary of the People’s Committee Against Police Atrocities, was third-time unlucky. Last year, police had zeroed in at least twice on the commander-in-chief of the Gana Militia, who had terrorised CPM supporters and dominated around 150 sqkm of the “Maoist territory” in West Midnapore and adjoining Bankura. However, on both occasions, Soren had managed to elude the police. In June last year, the joint forces had cornered Soren, whose real name was Bhuta Baskey, and his aides after they received information that the rebels were hiding in a forest in Kadashole, 15km from Lalgarh. The forces had killed two of Soren’s aides but the rebel leader escaped unhurt. A few days later, the police cordoned off a village deep inside Pingboni forest where Soren was camping but he again escaped. “But this time, we managed to shoot him dead in the forests of Metala,” a police officer said. “This is a big setback for the Maoists.”

Elsewhere, a close miss on getting Kundan Pahan Linky

Police today claimed to have shot dead two rebels — part of a 45-member squad led by CPI(Maoist) zonal commander Kundan Pahan — in an overnight operation in Arki, Khunti. While Pahan gave some 2,000 police and paramilitary personnel the slip, IG (operations) S.N. Pradhan said an eight-hour gun battle, which began at 8am on Sunday, destroyed a Maoist camp between Robo and Korba hills, about 100km from the capital, and inflicted twin casualties on the rebels.
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Senior police officers, however, remained tightlipped on how Pahan escaped the net. A permanent resident of Barigarha in Arki, the Maoist commander carries a reward of Rs 5 lakh on his head. He had joined the Naxalite movement after a land dispute with his uncle in 2000. Snatching rifles from policemen at Hembrom Bazar earned him the rank of an area commander soon. Later, Pahan killed a deputy superintendent of police to get promoted as sub-zonal commander. Sometime ago, he cleaned out Rs 5.07 crore cash and 1.5kg gold belonging to ICICI Bank’s Tamar branch to become CPI(Maoist)’s zonal commander.

Meanwhile from SATP

Times of India reports that Nagpur appears to be emerging as a new hub for the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoists) with security agencies suspecting that it is being used for transit, treatment and regrouping. With its proximity to Naxalite [Left Wing Extremists] hotbeds like Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand, sources also indicated that Nagpur was being used not just as a transit point but also for medical treatment. As per sources in the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), there are credible bits of information available to suggest that Naxalites from Naxal-affected States like Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand in particular, are increasingly using Nagpur as a transit point.

A sorry state of affairs on the Central Forces Linky

The highest attrition has been reported by Central Reserve Police Force with 3,522 personnel quiting their job, Minister of State for Home Affairs Ajay Maken told Lok Sabha in a written reply on Tuesday. It was followed by Border Security Force with 3,000 and Central Industrial Security Force with 1,417 personnel leaving the forces. In total, the attrition rate up to June 30 this year in the six paramilitary forces was 9,036. "The main reasons for attrition are superannuation, retirement, removal from service on account of disciplinary proceedings, death or disability, resignation and voluntary retirement. They also include "family, personal or domestic problems, separation from family for long durations, difficult duties in remote or hard areas, sickness, mental depression, psychiatric and emotional cases," Maken said. Other reasons cited by him were fear of punishment for wrong doings, attractive alternative employment and reduction of qualifying service for full pension after the sixth Central Pay Commission.

Salwa Judum Linky

"If I have indulged in violence, why is it that the Naxals or their people have not filed a single FIR (First Information Report with the police) against me? asks Mahendra Karma, the tribal Congress leader whose movement has been widely described as a State-supported vigilante group.
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The Naxalites have opened two fronts -- the gun-front and the public-front. The public-front is exemplified with demonstrations, bandhs etc, here they have spread their message so widely that on the national and international level it has divided people on this issue. The pro-Naxalites are also part of their public-front. The Naxals try and cover all their weaknesses, violence and the excesses of their gun-front through this public-front. Whose moral responsibility is it to stop the public-front of the Naxals? This responsibility rests with us leaders. But we are not in the field, we have given the Naxals a walkover. If they have been successful in reaching thus far, it is because of us netas (politicians). The answer to their guns is already being given by the security forces, but who should have countered their ideology? That moral responsibility was ours. How many people are countering them politically?
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Q. But all these charges can't be false.
A. So why haven't they -- the Naxals or their sympathisers or the human rights commission -- filed any FIR against me? I was waiting, why didn't they? I don't understand -- does it ever happen that in a movement the leader goes scot free and the rank and file gets caught? In the history of the world has there ever been a movement like this (the Salwa Judum) against political terrorism? Naxalism is political terrorism. India is emerging as a superpower and anti-democratic forces want to destablise the government, so they also get international support from such forces. Naxals are getting direct or indirect support. If this problem is not solved, then this country and its people will have to pay no less a price than what they paid for freedom. I am a democrat and live in a democratic system. If they are against our system, then it is a rebellion and should be crushed like one. The biggest drawback of our democracy is that democrats don't have a commitment to their democracy.
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Q. One of the reasons for tribal resentment is the government's failure to bring about development, infrastructure and progress.
A. Naxals are the biggest enemies of development. From 1947 whatever infrastructure, development, was made was destroyed by them. Their theory is to keep the tribals away from progress. If they want a revolution in these areas they have to keep progress away from the tribals. This is their hidden theory and we grieve that the Adivasi is not seeing any progress, that they are being displaced. Today wherever there are natural resources, there is a jungle, where there is a jungle, there are tribals. Exploration (for mineral resources) is being done for decades, but based on that when we talk of any industry, why do we talk about tribal exploitation only then? If that is so, why don't you stop the effects of those resources? What is buried in the ground for millenia can remain buried. It's not as if you don't exploit it, it will suffer any loss. You want the tribals to remain like that. What about their children? You have to listen to their voices. These people who support the Naxals don't want the Adivasis to get educated and progress. There is no concept of an educated Adivasi, we have no thinking about them. We have to think about them. It is unfortunate that they don't feature on our radar.

3) Assam NRC update Linky

Dispur today transferred Barpeta superintendent of police D. Mukherjee as commandant of 1st Assam Police Battalion giving in to demand for his removal in the wake of the police firing in Barpeta, in which five were killed on July 21. Shiv Prasad Ganjawalla will replace Mukherjee. The All Assam Minority Students’ Union had demanded the immediate removal of the SP and the deputy commissioner blaming them for the incident. Police had opened fire after alleged AAMSU supporters went on a rampage damaging vehicles, pelting stones at security forces in front of the DC’s office.
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Mukherjee’s transfer, however, has not gone down well with the police here with several senior officials saying it had become a routine affair to mete out such “punishment” under pressure. “This is nothing more than appeasement,” a senior police official said. “What do they (the government) expect us to do, sit around and get hit by stones and other assorted missiles that protesters freely use! What about those people whose vehicles were damaged, leave alone the injuries caused to the police personnel,” the official said.

From SATP, ULFA vs. Bangladeshis, yawn.

Sentinel reports that pro-talks ULFA ‘chairman’ Mrinal Hazarika has sought legal action against the All Assam Minority Students' Union (AAMSU) leaders involved in the Barpeta incident and said that the Bangladeshi issue has assumed serious proportions in Assam only because of the Jamiat. Reacting to statement issued to a section of the media by leaders of the AAMSU, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Jamiat that the ULFA leaders should be called Bangladeshis as they had stayed in Bangladesh for long, Hazarika said, “When war breaks out between two parties, one of them being a government, the party opposed to the government normally seeks the help of neighbouring countries. ULFA leaders did take refuge in Bangladesh but many of the ULFA men were active in Assam itself.”

On other ULFA matters, Linky

Police have issued an alert to thwart any attempt by Ulfa to raise black flags on the outfit’s martyrs’ day tomorrow. The banned outfit observes martyrs’ day against the killing of five cadres in Darrang district in 1991. “We have information that the cadres will try to hoist black flags to prove that the outfit is still a force to reckon with. We have alerted all the police stations to thwart any such attempt,” a senior police officer said.
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Police sources said Ulfa has hired a few persons, like it did during the “sainik divas” to hoist the outfit’s flag tomorrow. “Most of the flags the outfit had hoisted during the sainik divas were hoisted by hired persons,” the official said. He said the Ulfa commander-in-chief Paresh Barua is desperate to show the outfit’s strength when the Centre is pushing for talks with the jailed leaders.

4) NSCN (K) and China link from SATP

Hindustan Times reports that a National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) leader, Kughalu Mulatonu, said the Chinese found their way to militant camps in Sagaing division of Myanmar via New Delhi. The NSCN-K refers Sagaing division of Myanmar as Eastern Nagaland. The revelation came two months after the arrest of a Chinese spy, Guang Liang, near Kibithu in Arunachal Pradesh. The person claimed that he was from Henan province of central China. This division adjoining Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland is dominated by at least six Naga tribes and is easier to access from India. Mulatonu said from a camp near Dimapur in Nagaland: “Yes, they (the Chinese) openly and legally come to India via Delhi and meet us.” The Khaplang faction, led by S.S. Khaplang, a Myanmar-based Hemi Naga, retains control over most of the 30 Northeast militant camps in Sagaing division. “The government of India gets to know of such meetings well before they are held. The last of such meetings was in 2009,” Mulatonu said. He, however, declined to divulge what usually gets discussed at these meetings. Security agencies said the Chinese often get in touch with NSCN-K leaders, its rival National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and other Northeast militant groups camped in Sagaing Division to strike deals for small arms. “In all probability, the Chinese people visit the rebel camps to strike deals for small arms,” a Nagaland-based intelligence officer said on condition of anonymity.

5) Maldives Linky

The seeds of the present impasse go back to the 2009 parliamentary election when the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) led by Maumoon Abdul Gayoom managed to get a simple majority in parliament with the help of the People’s Alliance (PA) and some independents. President Nasheed’s Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has 28 MPs and the support of four independent MPs in the 77-member Parliament. Under the Maldives' system of government, the president handpicks his cabinet and each nomination must be approved by parliament. Parliament also has the power to remove a minister through a no-confidence vote. Though DRP gained control of the legislature it fell short of a two-thirds majority that it would need to impeach the president. At the same time, Nasheed cannot dismiss the assembly until it completes its full five-year term. The outcome has been a political deadlock.

Some of the opposition parties have not been happy with the education minister for his liberal views. To remove him from his post, the opposition-controlled parliament planned to bring a no-confidence motion against him. The cabinet however pre-empted the move by resigning en masse on 29 June. This decision also triggered a political crisis and left the country without any government for two weeks. The government claimed that opposition MPs were not allowing the executive to function properly and making it impossible for ministers to discharge their constitutional duties. On the same day police arrested three key opposition MPs for allegedly offering cash to bribe parliamentarians to vote against the government. This move worsened the crisis. Some key members of the opposition were also creating trouble for the government because they were not happy with its decision to privatize Male airport. These MPs, who are actually business tycoons, benefitted from the earlier system. Hasan Sayeed, leader of another opposition party Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP) was allegedly receiving huge legal fees from two MPs, Yameen and Gasim. Hence, his party was also opposing the government’s decision to privatize Male airport.

President Nasheed has attributed the ongoing political crisis to the constitution adopted on August 7, 2008, which is based on a presidential system of governance though it has also vested wider powers with Parliament, aimed at maintaining tenecessary checks and balances. This system becomes problematic in case parliament is controlled by the opposition as is the case in Maldives. It allows the opposition to obstruct the core functions of the executive, such as raising taxes and providing subsidies. Nasheed is of the view that only amending the constitution would bring political stability. He is also willing to change the political system into a parliamentary system and seek immediate re-election. Nasheed feels some laws passed in Parliament are making it difficult for him to play the role of the executive according to the constitution. He wants this to be rectified.

To defuse the crisis in Maldives, the international community has offered mediation. US Ambassador Patricia Butenis and Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa have mediated talks between the government and opposition parties. But the opposition leaders of Maldives feel that their mediation has already failed. The Commonwealth and the Inter Parliamentary Union (IPU) too have offered to mediate. President Nasheed believes that no amount of foreign mediation can solve the country’s internal political crisis. He has suggested the option of a Maldivian Repporteur acceptable to all parties, to take up the role of a peace envoy. This Maldivian Repporteur could be even a senior civil servant of Maldives.

Meanwhile, the government and opposition in Maldives have started a dialogue to ease tension on the advice of United States Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Robert Blake. Blake also felt that the current political unrest in the country could only be solved through dialogue and compromise. To facilitate talks, Nasheed has released opposition leader Yameen. In an attempt to reach out to the opposition, Nasheed has congratulated the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party on the fifth anniversary of its formation. He also expressed confidence that the DRP will cooperate with the government in its efforts to find an amicable solution to the current political impasse. Unfortunately, not everyone in Maldives is looking for a solution to the political crisis. A section of the opposition Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) MPs have declared that they will forward a no-confidence motion against President Nasheed to parliament for violating the constitution. Nasheed also seems to be prepared for all outcomes. The government is considering a referendum to decide on a system of governance, if negotiations fail. The government thinks that there is a need to define clear cut boundaries on the system of the governance.

Political instability in Maldives is not in the interest of India. The Indian government should encourage Maldivian-led mediation to defuse the political crisis in the Indian Ocean archipelago. Over the years, religious extremists have been gaining ground in Maldives. A political vacuum could be used by them to harm Maldivian democracy. Nasheed's popularity at home has waned, as he struggles to deliver the political and economic reforms he had promised, in the face of parliamentary resistance. More importantly, the peaceful transition to multi-party democracy that was taking place under President Nasheed has come under a cloud as a result of the present political crisis in Maldives.

The changing face of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam

AS: Sorry folks for the long break. Too many hard deadlines in the business.

Sorry to bother folks with TN matters, but it is amusing to note some statements and events.
1) Linky

“Though we adhere to the principles of rationalism and self-respect, we are not against temples and the beliefs of all,” said Agriculture Minister Veerapandi S. Arumugam.
...
Though the principles of DMK had been different, once in power, the party would never harm one's religious sentiments. “The DMK government in fact will never resort to the acts of hurting any one's feelings. But the acts of a few of those who claim to be Godmen are doing irreparable damages to their religion and faith,” he said. The Chief Minister had already asked the temple administrations not to favour any individuals when they come to worship since temples were common for all.

This coming from a loyal partyman whose leader asked for the credentials of some random aanjaaneyar!
2) Coming from 200 metres of one of these temples, I cant but not notice it: Linky

The Kapaleeswarar temple in Mylapore was on Monday awarded ISO 9001:2008 certification. Deputy chief minister M K Stalin handed over the certificate to Hindu religious and charitable endowments minister K R Periyakaruppan at the secretariat. The other two city temples — the Parthasarathy temple in Triplicane and the Dhandayudhapani temple in Vadapalani — have also got ISO certification, according to official sources. Early this year, the three temples had applied for ISO certification following an announcement by Periyakaruppan in the Assembly.
...
The three city temples had included their fixed assets, accounts and strict adherence to rituals for scrutiny by the ISO. According to HR&CE officials, Meenakshi Amman temple in Madurai and Srirangam Ranganatha temple will also apply for the ISO tag shortly. “We were waiting for the city temples to get certification and now we will ask these temples to apply,” they said.

Comment: The imminent calling of Paramapadham on our "Dear leader" will release a pent-up energy characrerized only by the arrival of yellow shawls, angapradakshnams, thee midhis, alagu kuthhal, etc. Dont be surprised if you see Dear leader's pic in the form of one of Shri Shiva-Vishnu's incarnation. My only advise is that: Dont stand in the way when Dear leader's coffin passes through to the burial yard in the Madras beach for your life and security is NOT in your hands. For even higher, bigger and thicker mortals such as Mata Biryanandha-mayi were beaten black and blue when Tam-land witnessed the previous rendition of saavu dance in 1987.

I have a further take on the "Janusian" case of Tamil nationalism, where anti-Hinduism was just the visible face. The invisible face used the anti-Hindu feelings to corral fissiparous tendencies in other religions and within Hinduism -- a casteist whine profile. But making this case to a non-Tam (especially, a Hindi-lover), who can only see the Tamil linguistic jingoism/fanaticism would take a while. A long-winded history lesson on the rise, fall, re-rise and eventual ebbing away of linguistic identities in South India would be necessary. But that would also take us into identifying the commonalities and differences in linguistic whine profiles in the Northeast India and Sri Lanka. Perhaps, when I have the time for this...

A case for data, rather than rhetoric

I am going to sink myself into a once in a bluemoon rant about brf. Berating brf here is neither productive nor constructive nor fun, but I have to take the liberty to rant this one time. So please indulge me, I promise to not indulge in this task for a looong time.

It is on the issue of data, statistics, facts, numbers, etc. The problem that typifies not only the pakistan thread, but also most other threads is a clear lack of data-points with which one can decipher trends and trade-offs for themselves rather than let experts spoon-feed these for them. A battle-cry for data comes when someone goes past the initial stage of rhetoric and wants to establish facts on a crystal-clear basis such that even a nay-sayer would find it hard to deny pithy maxims, whether they be on pakistan or India. That is the precise methodology with which one can win fencesitters to your side and put ostriches to shame. Data also helps one establish clear trends, the true turning points, the cataclysms, the strategic stalemates, the "Orange alerts" that produce a heightened sense of awareness without causing much damage on the ground, etc.

Specifically, questions on India bother me. How many "below the poverty line" people are there in India? Noone has been able to give a precise answer to this question -- with numbers varying from 30% to 90%, depending on who speaks and what axe that person has to grind. How many Muslims are there in India? Numbers go all the way from ~16% (official estimates) to 25% (if you ask the RSS folks). To top this, even the current census exercise is checkered with organizational issues such as lack of manpower, disturbed areas, lack of access to all the gullies and mohallas with only the phrase "unorganized chaos" coming close to capturing the mayhem in the madness. Similarly, how many Backward Castes people are there in India? Without knowing how many there are, we have a 50% cap on reservations. One glance at the "Know Your India" thread that started off as a repository of such information shows how a thread can and will get lost in the wilderness when rhetoric overwhelms data.

In the midst of all this accounting mess, if and when data-collection exercises get made, they are either hidden from the common man in the form of "Confidential" or "Top Secret" classifications even for the most useless trivia. Much of the data that is collected is hidden under the garb of OSA somuchso that even a simple access to mundane lists can get people into immense trouble. I can understand the political logic behind why easy access to data can be painful to certain vested interests, but why does brf have to be apathetic to scouring for data? Why focus on rhetoric instead? Needless to say, not all of the qualities of a subject can be expressed in the form of numbers and I am quite aware of this when it comes to citation indices and their liberal misuse in academe. But to stymie a call for data by using technicalities or diversions only muddies the waters rather than clarifies it, only grows the agyaan tree rather than prune it, only typifies the ostrich rather than the cheetah.

Vietnam BP bid and some posts

1) Linky

India won Vietnam's support on Thursday for its bid for crisis'hit BP Plc's energy assets in the South Asian country, as Hanoi stressed BP must give priority to its partners in the stake sale. The two nations, who are partners of BP in offshore gas fields in Block 06.1, appeared cozying up for splitting the British firm's stake between them after a meeting between India's Oil Minister Murli Deora and Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. "I had a very good meeting where the Vietnamese Prime Minister agreed with our proposal to takeover BP's interest (in an offshore gas field, a pipeline and a power plant - together known as Nam Con Son project)," Mr. Deora told PTI here. "He was supportive and asked us to work out details (of the bid)," he said without further elaborations.

ONGC Videsh Ltd, the overseas investment arm of State-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), already has 45 per cent stake in the offshore gas fields where BP has 35 per cent and the balance 20 per cent is with Vietnam's national oil firm PetroVietnam. Both OVL and PetroVietnam are keen to acquire BP's stake in the fields that currently produce about 14 million standard cubic meters per day of gas. "He (Dung) sounded very positive (on India making a bid for BP?s interest). I think we are making progress," Mr. Deora said, adding Vietnam gave enough hints that it will not come in way of BP selling its stake to India.

Vietnam's Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Huu Hao earlier said BP must give priority to its partners in sales of stakes in Vietnam assets before making offers to outside parties. In all likelyhood, OVL and PetroVietnam may arrive at an understanding to divide the BP's stake between them. "We are open to taking 1 per cent to 35 per cent stake," Mr. Deora said. "Since (India's first Prime Minister Jawarhal) Nehru to (former prime ministers) Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi and now (UPA Chairperson) Sonia Gandhi, India has always supported Vietnam. We have very good relations with them and we will be happy to extend our relationship." Besides the offshore fields, BP also has 32.33 per cent stake in a 371-km pipeline, built at a cost of $ 565 million, that ships the gas produced from the fields to onshore power plants. ConocoPhillips (16.7 per cent) and Petrovietnam (51 per cent) are other partners in the pipeline.

The gas produced from the fields is supplied to a 720 MW, $ 412 million Phu My-3 power plant where BP, Japan's Kyushu Electric Power and Singapore's Sembcorp have 33.3 per cent stake each. India is keen to take BP's stake in the pipeline project and the power plant. "BP has told the Vietnam government that they want to sell their stake in the Vietnam gas fields," Mr. Deora said. The British energy giant intends to sell all of its assets in Vietnam and Pakistan, except for its lubricants business, in its drive to raise $ 10 billion to help pay for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill clean up and compensation.

The Vietnamese assets are valued at about $ 966 million and the Pakistan business at about $ 690 million, according to investment banker UBS. "In principle, priority should be given to sell the stake to partners", Mr. Hao said. "If partners do not buy, then they can sell to outside parties." OVL had sold stake in the Lan Tay field in the block 06.1 in Vietnam to BP after winning the exploration license for the area in 1988. Mr. Deora flew into the Vietmease capital Hanoi on Wednesday and held discussions with top officials of Petrovietnam. Later he flew to Dalat, the venue of ASEAN Energy Ministers meeting. He met the Vietnamese Prime Minister on sidelines of the conference.

"The gas fields were originally allocated to us but due to foreign exchange crisis of 1990s, we had to farm?out (give away) some stake to BP. We will like to get back that stake," Mr. Deora said. China's CNOOC and Sinopec as well as Thailand's PTTEP may also be interested in BP's stake in the Vietnam project. Chinese oil majors could come up against political opposition in Vietnam, where suspicion of China runs high due to the territorial disputes between the countries in the South China Sea. Oil Secretary S. Sundareshan said India is interested in taking over Bk's stake in all the segments of the Nam Con Son project - the gas fields, pipeline and the power plant.

While OVL along with State-owned Oil India Ltd may takeover BP stake in the gas fields, gas utility GAIL India was interested in the British energy giant's stake in the pipeline. GAIL and refiner Indian Oil Corp (IOC) can together manage the power plants. Nam Con Son project's upstream part is the Block 06.1, located 370 km south-east of Vung Tau on the southern Vietnamese coast. The 955 sq km block has Lan Tay and Lan Do gas fields. Lan Tay currently produces around 14 million standard cubic meters per day of gas while Lan To is being developed currently.

OVL recouped all its investment in the project in 2006 and currently earns $ 35.40 million of net revenues, officials said. OVL has so far invested $ 217 million in the gas fields and has government approval to invest up to $ 377.46 million. ONGC Chairman and Managing Director R. S. Sharma, OVL Managing Director R. S. Butola, GAIL Chairman and Managing Director B. C. Tripathi, OIL Chairman and Managing Director N. M. Borah and IOC Director (Refineries) B. N. Bankapur are part of the high-level delegation Mr. Deora is leading. Besides Nam Con Son, BP also owns 75.9 per cent operating interest in Block 5?2 with Petrovietnam holding 24.1 per cent. It partners ConocoPhillips and PetroVietnam in Block 5?3. OVL also has two other exploration blocks - 127 and 128 in Vietnam. The gas fields in Block 06.1 were discovered in 1998 and were put on production in January 2003. The field produced an average of 12 mmscmd in 2009 and with additional compressors being put, the output will rise to 15 mmscmd.

2) Linky

“The Sino-Burma relation is not as good as before. It has become cold. Instead of a return visit to China [in the wake of a recent Chinese delegation to Burma], Than Shwe will make his next visit to India, which suggests a warmer and closer relation with India than with China,” he further speculated.

Just note that mizzima is the outlet for pro-democrazy voices in burma sitting outside, specially in Delhi, and bad-mouthing the junta. Not that the junta are saintly, but one has to take the mizzima assessment and statements with a pinch of Tata salt (no pun intended).
3) Different strokes for different folks Linky
It is certainly odd that GoI would provide kid-glove treatment for NSCN (IM) while it treats ULFA with the treatment they deserve, and the NDFB with utter derision. So why is GoI afraid of NSCN (IM)? NSCN (IM) has a strong nexus with the west as can be seen from Thuingaleng Muivah's refuge in Netherlands. Same can be said for A.Z.Phizo who was domiciled in London till his death. Is it the fear of the west? It cannot be the fear of extra-territorial disputes such as Manipur or NSCN (K)'s strategic depth in Burma. It has to be something else. I can naively claim the Baptists to be the zero point in this mess. But that just shuts out any logical reasoning from the picture. What is it, I want a more specific and histrionics-free answer.

Northeast and south east asia

Many reports today...

1) India eyes BP Vietnam stake Linky

India is pitching to buy British energy giant BP Plc’s stake in the $1.3-billion Nam Con Son gas project in Vietnam. Oil minister Murli Deora today flew to the Vietnamese capital with the heads of Indian oil firms to lay a claim on BP’s stake in two offshore gasfields, a pipeline and power project — together called Nam Con Son. “This is a great opportunity for us. The gasfields were originally allocated to us but because of the foreign exchange crisis of 1990s, we had to farm out (give away) some stake to BP. We will like to get that back,” Deora said ahead of his meeting with Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and government-run PetroVietnam.

BP is considering the sale of fields in Colombia, Venezuela and Vietnam to meet the $20-billion clean-up bill of the worst US spill. It had in June announced a $10-billion asset sale programme to pay the costs of compensating victims of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill caused by the blowout of the Macondo well in April. China’s CNOOC and Sinopec, as well as Thailand’s PTTEP may also be interested in BP’s stake in Vietnam’s largest gas project. ONGC Videsh, the overseas arm of state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, already has a 45 per cent stake in the offshore gasfields where BP has 35 per cent. The balance is with PetroVietnam.

2) NRC update in Assam Linky

Dispur has told the Centre that it would not be possible to define who is an “Assamese” without completing the process of updating the National Register of Citizens (NRC), 1951. The Union home ministry had yesterday asked the Assam government to expedite the process of the definition to ensure a decision on 100 per cent reservation of seats in the Assembly, Parliament and other local bodies for the state’s indigenous people.
...
“The very process of updating the NRC has not yet been able to progress properly due to division of opinions. While the minority groups want the update on the basis of the voters’ list of 1971, many non-minority organisations have demanded that the NRC be updated on the basis of the voters’ list published in 1952. The AASU, in its report submitted to the GOM, clearly stated that the NRC 1951 or the voters’ list of 1952 be taken as the benchmark to define the concept of indigenous Assamese people. So the government feels that it would be a politically immature step to take the final decision on the issue without waiting for the completion of the NRC update,” the source said.
...
AASU adviser Sammujjal Bhattacharyya termed the government step as an attempt to woo illegal Bangladeshis for votes. He said the AASU does not understand the logic of the NRC update to define who is an Assamese. He said considering the gravity of socio-economic aggression by illegal foreigners, the AASU also wants creation of a provision under the clause 7 of the Assam Accord to enable the people to assert an exclusive right over land and other natural resources in the state. He said since flood and erosion were fast eating up huge quantum of lands, Assam must come out with a proper land policy to protect the interest of indigenous people. “The AASU’s demand is being given due consideration,” a source said.

Linky

At least four persons were killed and more than 50 injured in clashes between activists of the All Assam Minority Students’ Union and police as well as residents here today. The Barpeta administration clamped Section 144 in the entire district while the AAMSU called a 12-hour Assam bandh — supported by the AIUDF — from 6am tomorrow. Police said hundreds of AAMSU activists and supporters gathered in front of the deputy commissioner’s office at 11am to take part in a scheduled dharna staged to oppose the process of updating the National Register of Citizens (NRC). The protesters shouted slogans against chief minister Tarun Gogoi and All Assam Students Union (AASU) adviser Samujjal Bhattacharyya and threw stones at the security personnel, injuring 10 police personnel, including two CRPF jawans. About 20 vehicles parked on the premises of the deputy commissioner’s office were also damaged.
...
The AAMSU has been demanding cancellation of the process of upgrading the NRC undertaken in Barpeta district and Chaigaon in Kamrup district as pilot projects in Assam. As part of the project, the citizens have been asked to attach some documents as proof of their Indian citizenship with the standard government form. These documents include the list of NRC 1951 and the electoral rolls of 1966 and 1971. The purpose of the NRC is to identify and enlist Indian citizens in the state. AASU alleged the incident was instigated by a pro-Bangladeshi lobby to throttle the process of NRC update. The AASU adviser told reporters there was no justification in AAMSU agitating on the issue since the NRC would be updated on the basis of the voters’ list of 1971.

“There are enough reasons to believe that migrants across the border who came to the state after 1971 are threatened by the NRC update. The lobby of these illegal migrants backed by organisations like AAMSU is now trying to create a communal divide in the state in the name of NRC update. The AASU will not allow the issue to take a communal colour,” Bhattacharyya said. Condemning the incident, the AGP said it was a complete failure on part of the district administration to control the situation. In a statement issued by the party’s Barpeta unit secretary, Liaquit Ali Khan, the AGP condoled the deaths and demanded a high-level inquiry into the incident.

3) ULFA vs. PC Haldar, NSCN vs. RS Pandey
Linky

Former director of Intelligence Bureau, P.C. Haldar, who was appointed an interlocutor for talks with the banned Ulfa, arrived here today on a three-day visit aimed at preparing the ground for negotiations with the outfit. According to sources, the basic objective of his visit is to asses the ground realities. “He will take opinion of a cross-section of people on initiating peace talks with Ulfa. He will also weigh the pros and cons of entering into a dialogue with the outfit without Paresh Barua,” a source said.

National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) ‘general secretary’ Thuingaleng Muivah wants more powers for Centre's interlocutor R.S. Pandey to accelerate the 13-year-old Naga peace talks, reports Nagaland Page. The Naga leader, who arrived New Delhi on July 15 with at least eight deputies for the next round of peace talks, would like to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Home Minister P. Chidambaram to convey this request, among others, before the official dialogue begins. Sources said the peace talks between the Centre's representatives R.S. Pandey, home ministry officials and a nine-member delegation of the outfit could be held next week.

4) Baptists vs. Catholics Linky

The minority Catholic community in a Nagaland village is allegedly facing persecution, with the predominant Baptists imposing fines and seizing property of people from the rival denomination for practising their faith — a rights violation deeply condemned by the Nagaland Baptist Church Council. Village authorities and a students’ union of Anatongre in Kiphire passed a resolution on March 18 stating that there shall be only Baptist Christian denomination in the village. They warned that Rs 50,000 would be imposed against those who bring in other religion/denomination to the village, their moveable and immovable properties seized and the defaulters expelled from the village. The Catholic Association of Nagaland highlighted this denial of right to religion in a memorandum submitted to the governor, after a Catholic Church was dismantled at Anatongre village on July 9.

5) Dima Hasao Linky

A 15-member delegation of the Indigenous Peoples Forum met Assam chief secretary N.K. Das today to press for the demand to bifurcate Dima Hasao (formerly NC Hills) district. The team, headed by the forum’s president A. Langthang, submitted a three-point memorandum to Das and demanded immediate and fruitful solutions to their problems. The demands include bifurcation of Dima Hasao district into autonomous council districts and Sixth Schedule status to both, renaming of the separate district as North Cachar Hills, steps to cancel the proposed wildlife sanctuary covering Boraille hill as it is the habitation of the indigenous people, and finally formation of a high-powered committee to look into the demands. Dima Hasao district is home to 18 different communities.

6) Burma issues and Than Shwe visit, thanks Al for posting that.
linky

Intelligence agencies are worried about the increasing presence of Chinese-origin businessmen in Myanmar, the concern being voiced ahead of next week’s trip by the head of the country’s military junta. The anxiety is expected to figure in the talks between General Than Shwe and the Indian side during his five-day state visit starting July 25, though he is also expected to invite Indian investment in a big way. The warning on the Chinese traders’ rising presence and influence — in the border areas as well as in the hinterland — assumes significance also because of the conclusion that their expansion has come at the cost of Tamils. The trend has been pronounced in the trade hubs of Mandalay and Tamu. “An intelligence report says within five years, Myanmar will be a Chinese colony,” a home ministry official told The Telegraph. The Tamil families have been there for over a century. Visitors couldn’t miss the aroma of idlis and sambar in Tamu, close to Manipur’s Moreh. “We would joke that the best south Indian food is found in Moreh,” said Pradip Phanjoubam, the editor of Imphal Free Press. That is changing now as Chinese businessmen overtake their Tamil rivals, many of whom are now said to be looking at greener pastures in Moreh.

The Indian worries have a parallel. In the villages of Arunachal Pradesh’s Kibitho — close to the Tibet-India-Myanmar tri-junction — local sources said the population of the Hans, the dominant ethnic Chinese group, had doubled over the past year. The sources even claimed that many of the new settlers were ex-Chinese servicemen. The Arunachal situation mirrors the tensions in Tibet where riots in 2008 traced their roots to Beijing’s policy of encouraging the Han majority to migrate to the region dominated by native Tibetans. The Dalai Lama, whom China had accused of having plotted the violence, had cited the Han migrations as a cause. Last year’s Uighur uprising in China’s Xinjiang was also blamed on discontent over Han settlers.

Myanmar is strategically important for New Delhi. Militants from Manipur and other states in the Northeast find shelter in the jungles of the country’s north. Myanmar is also a route for gunrunning and drug-smuggling. General Shwe could bring a bag of goodies when he comes calling next week, mainly investment opportunities in his country, including in hydro-power, oil and natural gas projects for an energy-hungry India. But religion, not business, will be the 77-year-old leader’s trump card as he tries to win over Indian hearts. Shwe — dubbed the “world’s third-worst dictator” behind North Korea’s Kim Jong Il and Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe by the Foreign Policy magazine — will start his Indian sojourn with a visit to Bodh Gaya and seek India’s assistance to help to restore a famous Buddhist pagoda, Ananda Temple, in Myanmar.

Myanmar wants the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) to restore the over 900-year-old structure. The temple whose architecture is similar to temples in Bengal and Orissa is located in Myanmar’s Bagan region. Shwe is scheduled to meet President Pratibha Patil, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other leaders during the July 25-29 visit. On his business itinerary will be meetings with barons, including one with Ratan Tata possibly to set up a vehicle plant. Myanmar produces only Jeeps and there is a huge demand of four-wheeler trucks and cars. A visit to infotech and pharmaceutical companies in Hyderabad is also on the cards.

Shwe’s visit is being viewed as yet another sign of India shedding its “moralistic” approach to foreign policy for a “pragmatic” one that requires it to deal with neighbours the way they are, not how they ought to be. Delhi had supported the movement for democracy led by icon Aung San Suu Kyi before it started engaging with the junta. “It (the ties with Myanmar) is a relationship that needs to be nurtured,” said a top foreign ministry official.

India and Myanmar have been working towards closer strategic and economic ties. General Shwe had visited India earlier in 2004. Then President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam went to Myanmar two years later. Maung Aye, Myanmar’s No. 2 general, came to India in 2008. Vice-President Hamid Ansari went there last year, as did the army chief. Foreign secretary Nirupama Rao and home secretary G.K. Pillai made trips earlier this year. Trade between the nations is over $1 billion (Rs 4,700 crore). But India does not have big investments in Myanmar. The only notable deal — by the Essar group which put in Rs 535 crore since 2007 — is in the upcoming Sittwe port, known as the Kaladan river project. The project, which includes making the Kaladan river navigable all the way up to a point close to Mizoram, is scheduled to start by 2013. This will complement Bangladesh’s Chittagong and Khulna ports that Dhaka has already offered India to cater to the Northeast.

I never realized Khulna was offered as a port by BD, I assumed only Chittagong was offered. This is news to me.

Nepal update on vote

Linky

The legislature parliament has failed to elect a new Prime Minister at the elections held Wednesday after motions filed by Nepali Congress and Unified CPN (Maoist) got rejected and CPN (UML) withdrew its motion. Unified CPN (Maoist) had fielded its chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepali Congress had fielded its vice president and parliamentary party leader Ram Chandra Poudel and CPN (UML) had fielded its chairman Jhala Nath Khanal for the prime ministerial race. At the voting that took place Wednesday evening, Maoist candidate Dahal failed to gain majority as only 242 lawmakers out 597 present at the House voted for him. 114 lawmakers voted against him and 236 lawmakers stayed neutral.

Likewise, NC candidate also failed to get majority as he secured only 124 votes in his favour. 235 lawmakers voted against him and 228 lawmakers stayed neutral. CPN (UML) withdrew its candidate Jhala Nath Khanal from the prime ministerial race after its efforts to secure a two-thirds majority at the parliament failed. The party had fielded Khanal as a candidate for the post of the Prime Minister only if two-thirds majority is assured before the votings. The Maoists had also pledged to support Khanal if he managed to secure a two-thirds majority.

As today's elections failed to elect a new Prime Minister, Speaker of the legislature parliament announced that the re-elections to the post of PM would take place on Friday. He has summoned the next meeting of the House at 1 pm, Friday. The schedule for the elections will be published later.

Comment: Only 5 non-maoist members supported PK Dahal. All the opposing votes should have come from NC as the CPN (ML) abstained (CPN ML has 108 votes). That says how much people are polarized against the maoists. Are the 118 others who stayed neutral waiting for some key concessions from the maoists? It is clear that the 82-strong Madhes parties want the assurance of a Madhes state, which noone promised, so they abstained. So is the stage being set for some kinda backroom deal before the Friday vote again? Only 10 non-NC members voted for RC Paudel. Almost all the maoists voted against RC Paudel. The rest including the CPN (ML) abstained -- I dont know the exact voting patterns, I am just guessing from the vote split and key facts published in bits and pieces.

The Jhalnath Khanal-led CPN (ML) abstained after getting hit with mud on their face. Jhalnath wanted to stitch a 2/3 majority in the Sansad, and would nt take anything short of that. The maoists assured them their support in case Jhalnath could come up with the 2/3 number given that 237 of the 601 are maoists. Simple calculation shows that Jhalnath needed to split the maoists rank and file -- across the Baburam Bhattarai and Mohan Baidya Kiran axis. Idiocy or plain charlatan behavior, god only knows. The maoists closed their rank and Jhalnath ended with not even a simple majority. Jhalnath claims to have 391 out of the 401 needed for 2/3 majority. I cant believe that, why will some of the maoist members support Jhalnath when there was a whip issued? In fact, there are enough rumours that Baburam Bhattarai was pissed with PK Dahal when Prachanda wanted to corner the PM post for himself. Baburam Bhattarai apparently chose to extend his support to Prachanda provided that Prachanda would not resign in the last minute in support of Jhalnath Khanal. Crazy!!! Really really crazy...

Now there is a possibility that a backroom deal can be stitched if NC chooses to support Jhalnath in return for CPN (ML) abstaining from NC motion and saving the NC h&d by a bit. And since PK Dahal and the maoists are close to Jhalnath than they are to MK Nepal or KP Sharma Oli, a cobbled consensus could still emerge. But this is going to be tricky. Such a consensus would nt have the Madhes support unless the Madhes demands are met. And noone, Jhalnath or Sher Bahadur Deuba or PK Dahal or KPS Oli or RC Paudel or Baburam Bhattarai can assure that. It goes against the Nepali h&d show to promise the Madhes-Terai people a separate province right next to the Kathmandu valley. Without the Madhes support, things are going to get violent as Upendra Yadav of Madhes Janadhikar Forum is going to act as the cat's pawn for Prachanda to stir up trouble as and when things take to a head.

All this begs the question: why not fresh elections? I am as clueless on this as you are. In India, we will right away have fresh elections if a consensus cannot emerge over years at a stretch. That is how we do it in our place, not quite so in nepal. Why, beats me? If the maoists are so powerful as they claim they are, why not prove it by getting an overwhelming mandate from the people? If the NC seems to have fresh ideas post-GP Koirala, why not prove it with the people? If Jhalnath is the consensus PM, why not prove it with the people? Why would nt someone or anyone use a god-given opportunity to prove to everyone who the boss is? The answer is clear: bankruptcy of ideas and Indian silence in not giving any party a takleef issue and allowing them to forge a consensus with the people. So far, the Narasimha Rao policy of "doing nothing is also a policy" has worked wonders in letting the maoists pull whatever little hair they have from their heads. One thing is clear: PK Dahal has divided and polarized everyone. Can the maoists actually come up with Baburam Bhattarai as a choice? That will mean asking the maoists to put their thinking cap on :). That will also mean Prachanda to actually not be greedy, kid me not, that is a surefire NO. Knowing Prachanda, greed is the first word in the Angrez lexicon. Can the Marxist-Leninists actually stop fighting publicly and crying openly about how they should be the right candidates? A joke, if there was any, would be better. Can the Congress-is actually have an issue to talk about? Yawn, even GPK has died, so what issue other than "we are nepalis now," do we have to talk about. Fun and mayhem never meant anything different, especially in nepal. Aye Gorkhali.
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Ok, a second take. I am as confused as everyone else, so I am trying to put two and two together in this strategic calculus/game.

Maoists:
Possible PM candidates
1) Prachanda -- pro-china in china, pro-India in India -- in short, a double-speaking untrustworthy person, spent a lot of time in Noida during the People's War phase
2) Dr. Baburam Bhattarai -- spent a lot of time in India, the key ideologue of the maoists, not pro-India in many sense, but not anti-India either, guarded in terms of India vs China calibration, irritated with Prachanda's greed to corner the PM post
3) Mohan Baidya Kiran -- pro-china, anti-Tibet, anti-India in many sense, irritated with Prachanda's greed to corner the PM post

Nepal Congress:
Possible PM candidate
1) Ram Chandra Paudel -- consensus candidate of NC, Sher Bahadur Deuba will be the remote control PM, pro-India, even the NC is pro-India in many sense esp post-GP Koirala

CPN (ML)
Possible PM candidates
1) Jhalnath Khanal -- pro-china in many sense, ambivalent about India, trying to co-opt India in supporting him, irritated with MK Nepal on MKN's lack of support for his candidacy, good friends with the Prachanda clique inside maoists
2) KP Sharma Oli -- pro-India in many sense, gets the support of MK Nepal, pretty much the opposite camp of Jhalnath Khanal, ambivalent about china

If Prachanda is thrown out and the maoists succeed in planting their PM, Baburam Bhattarai is going to end up as PM with support of Mohan Baidya Kiran. That is one pro-India element with a pro-china lobbyist. Besides that Prachanda is going to end up causing vertical divisions in the party over petty India vs china matters. If things could come to a head, Baburam Bhattarai has the ideological strength, but Prachanda has the YCL in his hands. This is going to be a violent one, if it could lead to the banishment of Prachanda and his double-speak, and Mohan Baidya Kiran's anti-India activities could be curbed, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai would make a nice combo with Dr. Ram Baran Yadav in steering nepal to a state of decency. But dont get too happy, Baburam Bhattarai can be as violent as anyone else, cutting his teeth during the bygone relatively more violent days of nepal.

If KP Sharma Oli can be propped up instead of Jhalnath Khanal, that will be excellent. A good replacement for the pro-India Madhav Kumar Nepal. But that is very unrealistic. Jhalnath Khanal holds the strongest possibility in CPN (ML) at this stage, especially with prachanda's overt support. But the maoists will be vertically divided against Jhalnath Khanal's stand. The Nepal Congress folk will remain ambivalent to Jhalnath and may even abstain. If Jhalnath's rise can result in cutting his size -- an oxymoron I know -- this may end up ok. But I doubt it, Jhalnath's overt and covert singing of the china tune will only end up hurting more in the long run.

I am not keen on analyzing Ram Chandra Paudel's case. It is as unrealistic as KP Sharma Oli's despite he being pro-India. One has to choose the right amount of success probability before venturing into a fantasyland.

Northeast (July 19. 2010)

1) Gorkhaland Linky

The Bengal government today asked the Centre to defer the tripartite talks with the Gorkha Janmutki Morcha. The home ministry, as a result, is unlikely to convene the negotiations on July 24, a date announced earlier by Delhi. A fax from Writers’ Buildings has requested the ministry to defer the talks, sources told The Telegraph. The probable postponement comes in the wake of evidence collected by Bengal police, which could nail top Morcha leaders in the Madan Tamang murder case. Phone conversations between Morcha general secretary Roshan Giri and cadres were reportedly recorded by the police before and after the murder on May 21. “We told the Bengal police to arrest (them) if they have the evidence,” said a home ministry source.

The Bengal government’s predicament is that it would be difficult to take action against Giri and others, who could be accused in the Tamang murder case, after sitting across the table with them. Moreover, the Darjeeling unit of the CPM — the party that heads the Left Front government in the state — is opposed to the talks. In Delhi, officials believe that Bengal would not like to go ahead with the meeting before the Assembly elections. The meeting was to discuss the Centre’s proposal for an interim authority for the Darjeeling hills on the lines of the DGHC, which earlier was an elected body.

For the Morcha, the fear is that the interim body could be equated with the Sixth Schedule status proposed by GNLF chief and former chairperson of the DGHC, Subash Ghisingh. “Right now, it is the internal dynamics of the Morcha and the Bengal government’s worries that are important,” said a source. Voice transcripts are admissible in court after tests at a forensic lab. But for the CPM-led government, elections are a priority and the talks may be conveniently pushed over to next year. North Block, however, would ideally like to continue its engagement with the Morcha, the source said.

SC on highway

The Supreme Court on Monday again directed the Centre and the Bengal government and parties agitating for and against Gorkhaland to stop blocking NH31A, the highway that links Sikkim with the rest of the country. The top court order came just days ahead of a proposed 24-hour bandh by the Morcha on July 25. The court was acting on a PIL filed by P. Bhandari, a resident of Sikkim, who said bandhs cut off the landlocked state completely, snapping supply of essential commodities.

2) DHD (J) Linky

The National Investigation Agency (NIA) today took further remand of commander-in-chief of Dima Halam Daogah (Jewel) Niranjan Hojai to take him to Delhi for “scientific tests”. Though the NIA had sought his custody for 10 more days, the court of the special judge, Adhir Kumar Das, extended the custody for seven days.

3) Manipur vs. Nagalim: Bah, wake me up later Linky

Manipur police submitted three chargesheets against NSCN (I-M) leader Th. Muivah and some of his cadres in a total of 324 cases registered against them, chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh told the Assembly today. He said the 324 cases were registered between August 1, 1997, and June 30 this year and that he would submit a detailed report of the nature of the crimes to the Assembly during the ongoing session.

“The cases were registered in connection with crimes committed within the territory of Manipur after the NSCN (I-M) ceasefire came into effect. Of these, chargesheets have been submitted in three cases, the final report of 179 cases were returned by the courts and investigations were on in another 142 cases,” Ibobi Singh said replying to a question by R.K. Anand, Opposition member of the Manipur Peoples Party.

4) Paging Kati, is this the blow-hot blow-cold from BD? Linky

The BSF has apprehended a self-styled sergeant major of the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), Joplin Pohtam, from the East Khasi Hills border early this morning.

Sentinel adds: Linky

Acting on specific information on Joplin’s movement from across the border, the BSF swung into action and apprehended him around 50 metres from the international boundary. BSF Public Relations Officer Ravi Gandhi said BSF troops apprehended the HNLC cadre at 4 am from near the border pillar 1272/3-S.

Meanwhile, the ULFA case seems to be heading the way of Anup Chetia, is this the squeeze you thought of? There is no talk of handover. Linky

Bangladesh authorities have slapped four cases against ULFA militant Ranjan Chowdhury and his associate whose arrest was announced on Saturday. A court in Kishoreganj in northeastern region remanded the two men to three-days custody of the paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion (RAB). The cases have been registered against Chowdhury under arms, explosive substances and anti-terror laws.

5) On Lower Subansiri Linky

Uncertainty looms large over the ongoing construction of the 2000 MW Lower Subnsiri Hydro Project at Gerukhamukh on the Lower Subansiri-Dhemaji districts of Arunachal and Assam respectively. A strong anti-dam lobby headed by AASU, Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) and Takam Mising Porin Kebang (TMPK) of Assam in recent times has shrouded a cloud of doubt over the project, which, nevertheless, progresses unhindered. Alleging indifferent attitude of both Assam and Arunachal state governments, the anti-dam alliance has repeatedly claimed that the ongoing dam construction at Gerukhamukh is devoid of technical assessment on the impact on the downstream areas. The protesting groups are of the opinion that districts on the banks of Brahmaputra in Assam would be the worst sufferers and have stoutly called for scrapping of the project. Several students’ organizations of Assam led by AASU and TMPK have been taking up a series of agitation programmes against the failure of NHPC and the state governments to honour the suggestions of the expert committee to keep the construction at abeyance till the final reports was submitted and studied.

Nepal update

1) Ram Chandra Poudel elected as Nepal Congress PM candidate. RC Poudel meets with KP Sharma Oli of CPN (ML) to win CPN (ML) support. But CPN (ML) is vertically divided between Sharma Oli camp and Jhalnath Khanal, who is known to be closer to the CPN (M) than to NC. The CPN (M) are canvassing for Prachanda's candidacy. But CPN (M) has given inclination that it will support Jhalnath's candidacy if a consensus eludes. Meanwhile, the Madhes parties -- MJF, MJF (Loktantrik), Sadbhavana, and one more -- have united in their stand on who to support. Makes for one nice convergence, this will end up in a win for RC Poudel and a NC-CPN (ML) government, if all is well.
2) Linky

India expresses fresh concern over Nepal passports

Kathmandu, July 17: Three months after the Nepal government scrapped a passport deal with India and awarded it to a French company, the growing controversy over the issue has made India express fresh concern about the threat insecure Nepali passports pose to India’s security. The Indian Embassy in Kathmandu this week sent a note verbale to Nepal’s ministry of foreign affairs, saying it was concerned that the security features in the new Nepali passports could be diluted. The letter said the Indian Embassy’s attention had been drawn to recent reports in the Nepali media expressing concern from different quarters on the issue.

Earlier this year, India had proposed that the contract for printing 4 million machine-readable Nepali passports be awarded to its state-owned Security Printing and Minting Corporation India Ltd. New Delhi was ready to offer the contract at rock-bottom rates as its primary concern about Nepali passports is their effect on India’s security. Following a bilateral treaty of peace and friendship signed in 1950, Nepalis don’t need a visa to travel to and stay in India and vice-versa. A Nepali passport holder can open bank accounts in India, hold jobs without employment permits and buy property.

The embassy letter to the foreign ministry said that its attention was drawn to ‘an unusually high incidence of loss of Nepali passports and frequent reports of misuse of Nepali passports by non-Nepali citizens’. According to the Indian ambassador to Nepal, Rakesh Sood, nearly 20 people arrested for terrorist activities in India last year came through Nepal and it is feared they used forged Nepali passports. The letter said the special relations between India and Nepal and the open border between the two neighbours allow visa-free movement of people. In addition, Nepali passport holders enjoyed privileges in India like engaging in commercial activities, opening bank accounts easily and applying for jobs. “These rights and privileges are granted to Nepali citizens on the basis of passport,” the letter said. “Any dilution of security standard of a passport is therefore a matter of concern.” India is asking Nepal to ensure that the new passports retain the security features discussed between New Delhi and Kathmandu. The fresh Indian worry comes after Nepal’s coalition government was forced to cancel the deal with the Indian company due to opposition by the Maoists and an order by a parliamentary committee to ask for tenders.

After India’s exit, four foreign bidders were shortlisted and the lowest bidder, French company Oberthur Technologies, bagged the deal by virtue of being the lowest bidder. However, the new deal too has had more than its fair share of controversies. First, two of Oberthur’s competitors sent written complaints to the foreign affairs ministry, saying the French firm’s bid hid technological deficiencies. Then a group of MPs, including a minister, accused foreign affairs officials of awarding the contract after receiving kickbacks and demanded an investigation. In an unusual step, Nepal still went ahead and awarded the deal to the French company even as the foreign affairs ministry said it would hold a probe.

Northeast (July 18, 2010)

Four reports today
1) Assam update Linky

Assam today took a step towards a bicameral legislature with the state Assembly unanimously adopting a resolution for setting up a Legislative Council or Upper House in the state. Parliamentary affairs minister Bharat Chandra Narah moved the resolution to create a Legislative Council in the state and recommend to the Union government that Parliament be moved to make laws to the effect as required under the provisions of Article 169 of the Constitution. Legislators cutting across party lines supported the resolution, which was passed by two-thirds majority.

Before one chooses to ask if it is a selfish decision, here is the main reason:

In his reply, Narah said the basic idea behind the creation of an Upper House is to offer representation to small ethnic groups, which were not represented in the state Assembly. “It is our responsibility to give equal representation to all the indigenous communities of the state,” he said. The Upper House cannot be more than one-third the total size of a Legislative Assembly. The proposed Upper House will have 42 members, as the total strength of the Legislative Assembly is 126.

So is it worth the exchequer to fund this decision, time will tell. On the Dima Hasao issue:

Chief minister Tarun Gogoi today told the Assembly that he is ready to recommend a CBI inquiry into all the departments of the Dima Hasao Autonomous Council and all the financial transactions of the council since 1996, as demanded by the Opposition. Gogoi made the statement during a discussion in the House on the Rs 1,000-crore scam in the autonomous council. At present, the CBI is probing financial anomalies in five departments of the council. The Opposition is demanding that the ambit of the probe be widened, covering all the departments.

2) Rebel groups join hands to prevent peace talks in North-east
Linky

All major police stations and camps of the security forces in the insurgency afflicted states of the North East have been put on red alert following intelligence reports that the major rebel groups of Manipur have come to the rescue of the decimated militant organisations of the region in general and Assam in particular. This fear was confirmed by the recent arrests of some rebel leaders in Manipur. The police and the Central Reserve Police Force on Friday jointlyarrested three hardcore rebel leaders with foreign currencies, Rs. 1 lakh in cash, two laptops, 3 pen drives and a Bangladeshi passport. They were picked up shortly after three bombs were plantedin Guwahati, allegedly by the anti-talk faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB).
...
The ULFA, the United National Liberation Front and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) had formed the Indo Burma Revolutionary Front on May 22, 1990, with this objective in view. They claim that the peoples of the NEand those from the Western part of Myanmar are racially similar and have a common future. Various other rebel groups had joined hands to form the Revolutionary Joint Committee on May 1,1991, the Manipur People's Liberation Front in 1999, the United Liberation Front of Seven Sisters in 1993 and the Self Defence United Front of South East Himalayan Region.

3) Kuki-Meitei rivalry and border trade
Linky

Indo-Myanmar border trade through Moreh in Manipur resumed today after Meitei Council Moreh (MCM) and two women’s organisations lifted the bandh they had called from 5am on Thursday. The bandh was called in protest against an alleged threat by cadres of the Kuki National Army (KNA) to M. Thoiba, a senior member of MCM. The bandh was called off after the intervention of State Planning Board deputy chairman Bijoy Koijam, who presided over a meeting of the community leaders last night. Chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh arrived at Koijam yesterday to defuse the tension between the Kuki and Meitei communities.

Now how many times should a CM arrive to solve a rivalry between two groups?! The genesis of this crisis Linky

Tension is mounting at the border town of Moreh in Manipur following an indefinite strike by the Meitei Committee Moreh (MCM) and the women vigilantes from Wednesday night. The strike is against the attempts by some Kuki tribal militants to kidnap office-bearers of the MCM. The MCM leaders told journalists that on Tuesday night the Kuki militants, armed with sophisticated guns raided all the houses of MCM office-bearers. When they could not locate the leaders, they told their families that if any cadre of the outfit was killed in the valley districts, the MCM leaders would be targeted. Under the Suspension of Operations agreement signed between the militants and the Union government, the Kuki tribals are barred from moving around with weapons and cannot indulge in insurgent activities. The MCM leaders said that on receiving information that the militants were looking for them, they had informed the security forces. It is alleged that nothing was done to nab the militants. The women vigilantes said that if the MCM leaders had not exercised restraint there might have been some untoward incidents.

As a result of the wild cat strike, hundreds of tourists and visiting traders have been stranded. Shops have pulled down shutters and there is no vehicular traffic. Police reports said that patrolling has been intensified to ensure peace in this shanty border town, which is the centre of the legalised border trade with Myanmar. No arrests have been made so far. The strike comes on the heels of the kidnapping of a trader in Imphal by some Kuki militants for a ransom of Rs.10 lakh. Though the wife of the trader had paid Rs.2 lakh after much haggling, he was not set free. Troopers of 23 Assam Rifles had rescued the trader after a 10-minute exchange of fire with the militants. Some Kukis were arrested and extortion letters and incriminating documents recovered from them, the police said.

4) Bangla low pay threat to China Linky

As costs have risen in China, long the world’s shop floor, it is slowly losing work to countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam and Cambodia — at least for cheaper, labour-intensive goods like casual clothes, toys and simple electronics that do not necessarily require literate workers and can tolerate unreliable transportation systems and electrical grids. Li & Fung, a Hong Kong company that handles sourcing and apparel manufacturing for companies like Wal-Mart and Liz Claiborne, reported that its production in Bangladesh jumped 20 per cent last year, while China, its biggest supplier, slid 5 per cent. “Bangladesh is getting very competitive,” William Fung, Li & Fung’s group managing director, told analysts in March.

The flow of jobs to poorer countries like Bangladesh started even before recent labour unrest in China led to big pay raises for many factory workers there — and before changes in Beijing’s currency policy that could also raise the costs of Chinese exports. Now, though, economists expect the migration of China’s low-paying jobs to accelerate. And while workers in Bangladesh and other developing countries are demanding higher pay, too — leading to a clash between police and protesters earlier this week in a garment hub outside Dhaka — they still earn much less than Chinese factory workers.

But Bangladesh has its own challenges to overcome. China’s combination of a vast population of migrant workers, many with at least elementary school educations, along with modern roads, railways and power grids in its industrial provinces, has bestowed it with manufacturing capabilities that countries like Bangladesh cannot offer. Most of Bangladesh, meanwhile, suffers blackouts six to seven hours a day because it has not invested enough in power plants and natural gas fields — deficiencies that the government is working on but that will not be eliminated quickly.