Comment on LTTE and some other general comments

Precedent or "You got what you deserved": There is much consternation on Government of India's stance to vote against Sri Lanka at the UNHCR. While the vote led to an alignment of interests between human rights-peddlers of the free world and India, it comes amidst the drama of the U-turn on the "13th amendment and beyond" (Linky). Any Indian in his/her rightful mind would not argue twice when the Government of India takes the onus to speak the same forked tongue that statesmen from abroad indulge in, innit?!

Hero-ization of SL for putting down the LTTE: There is a dramatic heroization of the Government of Sri Lanka's efforts in defeating the LTTE militarily. Needless to say, while this was a great showcase for military pursuit against an unconventional status-quoist enemy, this was not an extreme exception by any means. In India, we have put down unconventional rebels with considerable venom over the years: Khalistani terror, Mizo National Front, etc. come to the forefront right away. As the border has been sealed, even J&K is slowly but considerably steadily moving to being a zone of peace where even borderline human rights violations get the short shrift of the people these days. Even as we speak, UPDS, ATTF and NLFT are in the long process of being coerced and socially and politically co-opted into accepting the path of democracy while a long-drawn battle on the NSCN-IM is unfolding at a politically glacial pace, but not so glacial for the counter-terror industry.

Further to speak, all this hero-ization business will fall by the wayside with the introduction of one silly statistic (see Footnote 1) from counter-terror literature: from 1970 to 1997, 74.72% of the world's terrorist groups lasted less than 1 year, 14.77% lasted between 1 and 5 years, 4.62% between 6 and 10 years, an equal 4.62% between 11 and 20 years and only 1.26% over 20 years. In other words, only 1 in 100 terrorist groups lasted longer than a generation and around 3 in 4 fell within a year. While that statistic can be read either way depending on your choice, it just speaks enormous amounts on how the writ of the State shall eventually prevail no matter what. Lo and behold, a terrorist group does indeed win "freedom", it has to morph overnight into becoming a legitimate Government (as happened in East Timor) and put the house in order. In other words, there are no permanent terrorist groups in the world, only permanent strifes in one form or the other.

More to speak, Sri Lanka does nt fit within the theme of one of the most deadliest places on earth even when the LTTE ran amok liberally in the North and East of Sri Lanka. That distinction goes to Latin America as FARC, Shining Path (or Sendero Luminoso as they called themselves), ELN, FMLN and other leftist inspired groups ran riot. The glory days of FARC and Shining Path are long since gone as Project Colombia has put down the narco industry quite badly. Even ETA and IRA were far more deadlier than LTTE and needless to say, both have been put down more or less. All this makes this dramatic hero-ization of the valor of the Sri Lankan army a moot point in some vague sense. Sure, many a soldier must have died valorously for his country and homeland, but to make it a tale of the day might be a theme for the naive.

Elsewhere, hockey group in the Olympics: India is clubbed with Germany, Netherlands, South Korea (the winner in the second leg of the qualifiers), New Zealand and Belgium at the London Games. Of these five matches, three are not-so-bad at all. Despite the high ranking of some of these opponents, wins should be the normative course against New Zealand, Belgium and South Korea. A draw against Germany should take us through to the semi-finals. Of course, for the Indian team conjuring up a draw or a defeat in the last minute is also not so abnormal, so take that bad omen with a punch of rum and salt!

Exasperated, but then what else is anew? Elsewhere, the developmental squad sent to Pakistan is loaded with players from one or two regions yet again. This time it is the turn of Coorg/Karnataka and Punjab. While some of the members in that squad are well entitled to even be in the National team, some are just baggages or rather unproven commodities with a big claim to a big-ticket exposure trip. This is the same incident that was seen at the Johor Bahru junior tournament where players from Punjab were stacked up, most of whom who took part in the WSH event have been let go and a new bucketload of prospects have been picked. A very professional way in which HI handles the junior leg of the sport. But that should not be surprising given that even worser treatment is meted out to coaches such as Mukesh Kumar and regular players like Sandeep Singh and Sardara Singh for playing in the Belgian league early last year.

Hostage taking incident in Orissa: The interlocutors for the Italians taken hostage by the Maoists are arrested Politburo member Narayan Sanyal, Dandapani Mohanty and Biswapriya Kanungo. D. Mohanty was an interlocutor in the Vineel Krishna hostage incident (along with Prof. Haragopal and late R.S. Rao).

And finally: Another series of silly statistics that puts down endless ululates (often me included!) on how the Indian academic market pays peanuts for its Professoriate. India has consistently ranked in the top 10 on paychecks adjusted PPP-wise (Linky) and is much better than even the US. Only Nigeria and Ethiopia best India on the ratio of monthly academic salary at public universities to the GDP per capita per month metric (Linky). India is one of the three countries to have housing projects mandated by law (Linky) and other supplementary benefits best the "poor pay" (Linky). All this confirms my long-held belief that NRIs who are gainfully employed in the education industry do not return to India not because of poor pay, but because the ecosystem of peer excellence has not reached critical mass, YET. When the critical mass is reached, the trickle shall become a deluge, needless to say.

Footnote 1: While this data is not exactly complete, it is not an unrepresentative sampling either.

Making Sense of the Manipuri Verdict 2012 -- Part II

We continue from the previous post (Linky) on interpreting the Manipur mandate 2012.

Manipur has nine administrative districts and 60 Assembly constituencies (see Footnote 1). The Imphal Valley has approx 60% of the state's population whereas the Hill districts have approx 40% of the population. Due to delimitation exercises done as late as 2011, the Valley has been divided into 40 Assembly constituencies and the Hill districts have 19 reserved (for ST candidates -- read as Kuki/Chin/Mizo and Naga tribal affinities -- only) constituencies and 1 general constituency (in Senapati district). The main candidate parties for the Assembly elections were: i) INC, ii) Manipur People's Party (MPP), iii) Naga People's Front (NPF), iv) Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), v) All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), vi) CPI, vii) CPM, viii) Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), ix) Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), x) BJP, xi) BSP, xii) Janata Dal (United), xiii) Janata Dal (Secular), etc. Of these, the first five are/were serious contenders to be meaningful participants in the Assembly debates with enough members to change the course of certain policy decisions, while the rear end had/has their pockets of influence in Manipur but not severe enough to dent the course of the main contenders.

First, some useful statistics from the elections and comparable data from the 9th Assembly elections of 2007. Most of the data have been sourced from:
1) Linky 1
2) Linky 2
3) Linky 3
4) Linky 4
5) Linky 5
6) Linky 6.

Voting percentage: 79.8% of the electorate (86.73% in 2007)
Overall seat wins: INC 42, AITC 7, MSCP 5, NPF 4, LJP 1, NCP 1 (In 2007, it was INC 30, MPP 5, NCP 5, CPI 4, RJD 3, NPP 3, Independent 10)
No. of women winners: 3 (Akoijam Mirabai, Okram Landhoni Devi (wife of Okram Ibobi Singh), Nemcha Kipgen)
In 2007, it was one when Okram Landhoni Devi won the Khangabok seat vacated by the resignation of CM Okram Ibobi Singh who had also won from Thoubal.
Big-time losers:
1) Radhobinod Koijam (former CM and NCP state unit President),
2) L. Jayantakumar Singh and 3) D. D. Thaisii (both Ministers in the previous Cabinet)
4) O. Joy Singh (veteran MPP leader)
5) Th. Chaoba Singh (another veteran MPP leader)

Lessons from the elections:
1) Toothless Opposition: The MPP, CPM, NCP, JD(U) and RJD had initially come under the People's Democratic Front umbrella to fight the incumbent INC regime and this combine soon became the People's Democratic Alliance of eleven non-Congress parties (with the inclusion of AITC, CPI, BJP, MSCP, NPP and NPF). While it may remain questionable (in the minds of a few) that the eventual outcome was whether a massive mandate for the Congress, it certainly was a mandate against an ineffective, toothless Opposition with nothing much in common except a visceral hatred towards INC rule. Very often have we seen such maha-parivars fail to usurp the sitting party and the Opposition has yet again made a big mistake in sensing people's moods and sentiments. The facts that the INC government was hobbled by many a scandal and handled the economic blockade (see Footnote 2) by the Nagas and the tit-for-tat from the Kukis rather poorly did not seem to have had any impact on the voters. In fact, from 30 seats in 2007, INC has increased its tally to 42 in 2012. More specifically,

For the first time in over a quarter century or more, a single party has won an absolute majority in the 60-member state assembly.

This is just a direct reflection of the quality of Opposition in the elections.

2) Congress' Performance: As for the INC, it stood in all the 60 constituencies. Of the 40 Valley constituencies, it won in 28 seats, came a strong second in 9, came a strong third in 2 and got washed out in Langthabal where its candidate Waikhom Shyama Devi was no match for other contestants. In the Hill constituencies, INC won in 14 of the 19 reserved seats and came a strong second in 5. In the Kangpokpi (Gen) seat in Senapati district, INC came third behind MSCP and AITC. Thus, INC could claim to have had an across-the-state presence amongst all the three sets of peoples -- Meiteis, Kukis and Nagas. The Meiteis of the Valley seem to have polarized strongly in favor of INC as witnessed by the strong showing of INC in the Valley. Or have they?

3) Kuki vs. Naga votes in the Hill constituencies: The NPF took to the hustings in 12 of the 19 reserved seats. Its performance was first in 4 seats (Chandel (ST), Karong (ST), Mao (ST) and Ukhrul (ST)), a second in 3 seats and a third in 5 seats. As noted above, INC came first in 14 of the 19 reserved seats and came a strong second in 5. The remaining seat was won by MSCP (which had come first in Tamenglong (ST)) ahead of the INC and NPF candidates. The Kangpokpi (general) seat was won by MSCP ahead of AITF and INC. Of the 9 Kuki dominated seats including Kangpokpi, INC has won in 8 and MSCP in 1, while in the 11 Naga dominated seats, INC has won 6, NPF in 4, and MSCP in 1.

4) More on the NPF flop-show: In the 12 seats where the INC and NPF had directly contested, the scorecard was INC 7-5-0, NPF 4-3-5. In terms of district-wise divisions, of the three seats in Tangkhul Naga dominated Ukhrul district (Chingai (ST), Phungyar (ST), Ukhrul (ST)), NPF could win only in one seat (Ukhrul (ST)) and that too by a slim margin of 70 votes over the INC candidate with the BJP candidate (Danny Shaiza who was an independent MLA in the 2007 Assembly) coming a strong third. Further, in Chingai (ST), an independent candidate (Khashim Vashum who was embroiled in a recent controversy Linky) had come second ahead of the NPF candidate.

In the three seats of the Kabui-Kacha Naga dominated Tamenglong district (Nungba (ST), Tamei (ST), Tamenglong (ST)), NPF had failed to win a single seat. In fact, in Nungba (ST) and Tamei (ST), the MSCP and AITC candidates had come second ahead of the NPF candidate, respectively. In Tamenglong, both MSCP and INC candidates had come ahead of NPF candidate. In the six seats of Senapati district, the NPF contested three and came 1-1-2 (Mao (ST)-Karong (ST)-Tadubi (ST)). However, in Mao (ST), the AITC candidate was a strong third behind NPF and INC. In the six seats of Churachandpur district, NPF contested one and came third (Heinglep (ST)) behind the INC and AITC candidates. In the two seats of Chandel district, NPF came 1-2 (Chandel (ST)-Tengnoupal (ST)) with the win in Chandel (ST) coming by a margin of 60 votes.

Thus, the NPF had provided a knockout win in only 2 of the 12 constituencies it had contested in. The numbers also indicate that the NPF seems to have had the backing of Mao-Maram-Anal-Maring-Paomei affinities, but not the Kabui-Kacha Naga-Tangkhul Naga affinities. For a party that had put its credibility at stake in terms of being the united Naga voice and the grand spearhead of the Nagalim campaign within the Manipur Assembly, such a show was a massively poor outcome. This intra-Naga dynamic should not be completely surprising. NPF which is also a part of the DAN government in Nagaland is dominated by Angami Nagas (Nagaland CM Dr. Neiphiu Rio and NPF founder Shurhozelie Liezietsu are Angamis), whereas NSCN (IM) is dominated by Tangkhul (Muivah) and Sema (Swu) Nagas and NSCN (K) based primarily out of Arunachal and Burma is dominated by Konyak (Khaplang) Nagas. Kacha Nagas have been at the forefront of the massive Kuki genocide of 1992-93 (see Footnote 3) in Tamenglong district and elsewhere and have migrated more towards Tangkhul Nagas and NSCN (IM) in this interregnum. Thus, even though the NPF was promised NSCN (IM) support in the pre-election setting, assuming that this support was forthcoming on the ground seems like a mirage.

5) Grand-Nagalim Project: The role played by Nagaland CM Dr. Neiphiu Rio in inflaming emotions in the Naga-dominated regions of Manipur when he was campaigning for NPF needs attention. In fact, Rio had stated the following at an election rally in Tamenglong district on January 19 (Linky):

Last year, Ibobi Singh and his cabinet decided that they will not allow the Naga Chief Minister to enter the State, but now that the elections have been announced, he no longer has the power to prevent me from coming here and meeting you. But if you let him win again I will not be able to come to Manipur to meet all of you.

Needless to say, that remark was in rather poor taste and the poor show of NPF was richly deserved.
Overall, the impression one gets from the NPF campaign is that the whole of Nagaland (DAN, INC as well as NSCN-IM, NSCN-K, NSCN-KK, NNC, Naga Hoho, etc.) is firmly behind the grand-Nagalim project. Only the methods adopted by the different actors change from time to time, some adopt democratic means, some use coercive means; some use legal means, some use extra-legal means, and so on. Nevertheless, despite all overall impressions of union, when it comes to tit for tat, things breakdown along tribal sub-affinities.

6) Comparison with 2007: Note that in the 2007 Assembly elections, the INC which had won a total of 30 seats took 25 from the Valley and only 5 from the reserved Hill seats (3 in Churachandpur district -- Churachandpur (ST), Hinglep (ST), Saikot (ST), one in Senapati district -- Karong (ST) and one in Tamenglong district -- Nungba (ST)). The Hill seats breakdown for 2007 was 5 in favor of INC, 3 (including Kangpokpi) for the NPP, 2 for the RJD, 1 for the NCP and 9 for independents supported by the NPF, ANSAM and the Naga combine. Here is a theory to explain the reversal in fortunes for MPP, NPP, NPF, RJD, INC, etc.

In contrast to the NPF's woes, INC has won 6 out of 6 seats in Churachandpur district, 3 of 6 in Senapati district, 2 of 3 in Ukhrul and Tamenglong districts, and 1 of 2 in Chandel district. While almost all of these wins do not appear to be massive/overwhelming and appear to be steals in a tri-cornered fight with a spoiler candidate, the endorsement of INC can only be logically explained as the Kuki side's tilt to INC (the only possible perceptible winner) as a backlash to the ANSAM enforced Naga blockade (see Footnote 2).

7) Rise of the Trinamool Congress: In contrast to what Nitin Gokhale states (Linky):

Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, never before a force to reckon with in Manipur, has won seven seats in the recent assembly elections, overtaking established political forces like the Manipur People's Party.

the rise of AITC should be seen in the light of: i) how a strong dynamic in West Bengal will always have (and has always had!) an influence in all the Northeastern states (not just Manipur), ii) the brand of minority politics wielded by the likes of AITC and CPM -- both of which are constrained by realpolitik of a rising and enlightening Muslim votebank and who are never shy of showing off their secular credentials, iii) how the AITC had become popular amidst the also-running Opposition parties as witnessed by its success in the bye-elections of 2011 (Linky).

8) Looking at the Trinamool performance more closely: The Trinamool Congress won in the following constituencies (winners in 2007 elections are given in parentheses):
a) Thounaojam Shyamkumar -- Andro by 10432 votes (T. Shyamkumar on MPP ticket)
b) Maibam Kunjo -- Hiyanglam by 17 votes (Elangbam Dwijamani Singh of INC)
c) Konthoujam Sharat Singh -- Konthoujam by 514 votes (Late Dr. Sapam Budhichandra Singh of INC)
d) Irengbam Ibohalbi Singh -- Oinam by 956 votes (I. I. Singh on MPP ticket)
e) Khumukcham Joykishan Singh -- Thangmeiband by 984 votes (Radhabinod Koijam of NCP)
f) Thongam Biswajit Singh -- Thongju by 603 votes (Bijoy Koijam of INC)
g) Oinam Lukhoi Singh -- Wangoi by 182 votes (Salam Joy Singh of NCP)
Thus, of the seven seats Trinamool won in 2012, three were sitting MLAs -- two won the elections in 2007 on a MPP ticket and one had won the bye-elections of 2011. Thus, Trinamool Congress has gained significantly due to defections from MPP. Further, three of the winning seats are in Imphal west district, two in Imphal east and one each in Thoubal and Bishnupur, all in the Valley area. This makes a case that Trinamool had a backing only in the Meitei areas and not much in the Kuki-Naga areas. Such a coarse analysis misses the big picture.

The Trinamool finished a strong second (several thousand votes) in 16 constituencies of which 6 were reserved constituencies (Churachandpur (ST), Henglep (ST), Saikot (ST), Saikul (ST), Singhat (ST), Tipaimukh (ST)), a strong third in 11 constituencies of which 4 were reserved constituencies (Mao (ST), Saitu (ST), Tadubi (ST), Tengnoupal (ST)), and a strong fourth in 4 constituencies of which one was reserved (Ukhrul (ST)). In other words, the Trinamool has been a strong candidate in 37 of the 48 seats it contested, making it the number 2 party in the state by any metric and the biggest riser from 2007. Of these 11 reserved constituencies, 5 are in Senapati district, 5 in Churachandpur district and one in Chandel district. In Ukhrul and Tamenglong districts (both Naga dominated), the Trinamool took to the polls in only 2 of the 6 constituencies getting washed out in both. Thus, a strong case can be made that the Trinamool is becoming the no. 2 party of choice of both Meiteis and Kukis.

9) Trinamool Trend: It may appear that the rise of Trinamool Congress is perhaps a temporary aberration of people putting more hope in the Trinamool than in the Opposition combine of Manipur. The moment there is a sense of de javu and hopelessness that Trinamool Congress is just another party is the moment it shall lose its rising stars -- the ball for which is in the court of the Trinamool, of course. On the other hand, if the AITC does snatch this ball (so-to-speak), it could be the alternate pole sorely needed in the Indian Northeast to the INC given that the BJP has seemed to have fallen off from its high of 1998-2004. More so, the rise of the Indian Northeast cannot be ensured without the co-option of West Bengal and AITC's rise augurs well for this prospect (also bringing with it all the pitfalls that already constrain West Bengal's polity today). In addition, AITC could be seen more hopefully by people in the Northeast to solve regional problems than the likes of BJP given the image manufactured by AITC so far. For example, prior to the elections, AITC had given support to withdrawal of AFSPA from Manipur. Further, a good showing in a few more states could give a fillip to AITC's seeking of National Party status, which will bring in its own added momentum (Linky) and the consequence of the bold standing up to the INC in coalition politics will have its own unintended consequences.

Overall,
1) In response to the Naga blockade crisis, the Meiteis of the Valley seem to have chosen to stick with the INC -- more or less the only credible choice -- and put AITC over the rest of the established parties such as NCP, MPP, MSCP, etc.
2) In contrast to an ambivalent 2007, the Kukis seem to have sided with the INC and partly with AITC.
3) The Nagas seem to have been vertically divided along tribal sub-affinities in terms of support to NPF (Nagalim issue and territorial sovereignty of Manipur).
4) This dynamic means that INC has been able to land a whitewash despite massively poor economic upliftment of the people of Manipur, enormous increase in extortion activities and the business of terrorism, and complete stalling of bureaucracy/officialdom over the previous five years. The fact that INC has not had any major success in any of the other four state elections except for a marginal performance in Uttarakhand means that this win stands out for its complete surprise.
5) If any of the Opposition parties have to make a dent into this quickly transforming INC bastion (along with Assam where the illegal votebank has become a de facto powerbroker), they have to see past the fractiousness of the tribal divisions and present a credible solution to Manipur's economic woes. The only seeming prospect as of now appears to be AITC, but it is a hope banked on hope rather than on performance. If such an alternative is not coming soon, it is advantage INC to maintain status quo in spite of poor performance. The INC should feel like the ball is in the Opposition court for they have to manufacture a win out of nothing in 2017 (or earlier).
6) Despite all the whitewashes, the bluster of NPF and the Opposition combine shall continue as the blame for the whitewash will fall on imaginary conspiracies.

Other Minor Facts:
1) The biggest margin of victory was achieved by the incumbent CM Okram Ibobi Singh from the Thoubal constituency. Other 10K+ margin winners include Thounaojam Shyamkumar of AITC from
Andro and Ginsuanhau of INC from Singhat (ST).
2) Out of the 60 newly elected MLAs of the Manipur Assembly, no MLA has declared criminal cases against him/her. 57 of the 60 are men and 3 are women. In terms of educational qualification, 49 out of 60 are graduates with only 4 being 10th Pass and below.
3) Out of all 60 MLAs analyzed from Manipur 2012 Assembly Elections, 16 are crorepatis. In 2007 Assembly Election for the whole of Manipur only 1 MLA was crorepati.
4) The MLA with maximum assets in Manipur is T.N. Haokip of INC from Saikot (ST) constituency with assets worth Rs. 10.07 crores followed by Ksh. Biren Singh of INC from Lamlai with assets worth Rs. 5.22 crores and R.K. IMO Singh of MSCP from Sagoiband constituency with assets worth Rs. 2.72 crores. Among major parties, the average asset per candidate for INC is Rs. 1.05 crores, for AITC is Rs. 69.8 lakhs, for MSCP is Rs. 97.43 lakhs, and for NPF is Rs. 68.5 lakhs.
5) The number of re-elected MLAs from 2007 is 35. Of these 35, the average asset value in 2007 was Rs. 20.02 lakhs. The average asset value of this set in 2012 is Rs. 1.18 crore. Of these,
a) T.N. Haokip of INC's asset worth increased from Rs. 29.73 lakhs in 2007 to Rs. 10.07 crores in 2012.
b) Ksh. Biren Singh of INC's asset worth increased from Rs. 14.23 lakhs in 2007 to Rs. 5.22 crores in 2012.
c) Kh. Govindas of INC's asset worth increased from Rs. 38.25 lakhs in 2007 to Rs. 2.49 crores in 2012.
Other notable increases include:
d) K. Meghachandra of INC's assets rose from Rs. 2.90 lakhs in 2007 to Rs. 2.06 crores in 2012.
e) Akoijam Mirabai Devi of INC's assets rose from Rs. 30.5 thousand in 2007 to Rs. 14.40 lakhs in 2012.
f) K. Ranjit Singh of INC's assets rose from Rs. 3.82 lakhs in 2007 to Rs. 1.70 crores in 2012.

Footnotes:
1) The smallest number that can be had for a Legislative Assembly is 60, unless there is a Constitutional exception by an Act of the Parliament (as is the case with Sikkim, Mizoram and Goa). See Linky for details.

2) When the Centre decided to hold ADC elections in Manipur, the All Naga Students Association of Manipur (ANSAM) and the Naga Students Federation (NSF) began a blockade of NH-39 in April 2010 to protest the decision. In May 2010, the crisis took a bitter turn when the State government disallowed NSCN (IM) general secretary Thuingaleng Muivah from visiting his village Somdal in Ukhrul. During the four-month long blockade, Manipur was strapped for severely needed resources like petrol, LPG and basic food commodities. As Kuki-Naga tensions worsened, the NSCN (IM) was accused of trying to stall the democratic process in Manipur where nearly 200,000 voters would vote. A year later, in 2011, Kuki groups from Manipur started a 122-day blockade to draw attention to their demand — declare Sarda in Senapati district an autonomous district for Kukis. Both blockades crippled the State economically and losses ran to the tune of Rs. 250 crore.

In fact, there is a precedent from 2002 and 2007 to the claim that economic blockades matter zilch in Manipur.

3) Within the Hill districts, Kuki and Naga militia have been at loggerheads since the 1990s, with Kuki groups asking for the establishment of an Autonomous District Council (ADC) in Senapati, and Naga groups, backed by the NPF and NSCN (IM), demanding that large chunks of the four Hill districts be part of Greater Nagalim since these areas were inhabited by Tangkhul Nagas.

Understanding the Manipuri Verdict -- Part I

Elections to the 10th Legislative Assembly of Manipur has just now been completed with the people's mandate counted and declared. It makes sense to understand the subtle and not-so-subtle meanings of this democratic mandate as Manipur is not only a frontier and fractured state, but also because this could have serious import on the business of counterterrorism in the Indian Northeast for a significant period.

But before this task can be undertaken, the numbers that make Manipur need to be understood. For this, we follow-up from Linky in our goal of understanding Manipur and its peoples.

1) There are nine administrative districts in Manipur: i) Bishnupur, ii) Imphal East, iii) Imphal West, iv) Thoubal, v) Churachandpur, vi) Chandel (formerly known as Tengnoupal), vii) Senapati, viii) Tamenglong, and ix) Ukhrul. A picture of the district map of Manipur is available at: (Linky).

2) Of these, the four districts of Bishnupur, Imphal East, Imphal West and Thoubal form the Valley or plateau region while the rest form the Hilly area. The area of Manipur is 22,327 sq km, of which 20,736 sq km is the surrounding Hills and the remaining area is the Valley. Clearly, the population density in the Valley is much much more than the density in the Hilly districts.

3) From the 2011 census, the population of the various districts of Manipur is as below (Linky). Also provided is the district's population percentage relative to the state's population in the 2001 census

Manipur total population: 2,721,756 = 100%

Valley population: 1,628,224 = 59.79% (2011) 61.54% (2001)
Bishnupur - 240,363 = 8.83% 9.08%
Thoubal - 420,517 = 15.45% 15.87%
Imphal West - 514,683 = 18.91% 19.37%
Imphal East - 452,661 = 16.63% 17.21%

Hills population: 1,093,532 = 40.18% (2011) 38.46% (2001)
Senapati - 354,972 = 13.04% 12.36%
Tamenglong - 140,143 = 5.15% 4.86%
Churachandpur - 271,274 = 9.97% 9.94%
Ukhrul - 183,115 = 6.73% 6.14%
Chandel - 144,028 = 5.29% 5.16%

Conclusion 1: Thus the population of the Valley districts has decreased slightly over the 2001-2011 census relative to the population of the Hill districts. But in terms of general trends, both the 2011 census as well as the 2001 census show similar behavior. This is in contrast to the 1991 census where dramatic changes were witnessed due to ethnic cleansing of Kukis from Naga-dominated territories by NSCN(IM), ANSAM and affiliated bodies so that a stake for Nagalim could be put.

4) As we know from Linky, Manipur is a four-way contest between the Meiteis, the Meitei Pangals, the Kuki/Chin/Mizo tribal affinities and the Naga tribal affinities. The precise contest as from the 2001 census is as follows:

Hill districts
a) Senapati district:
Population - 283,621 (- 100%)

Population excluding Mao-Maram, Purul and Paomata subdivisions - 156,513
Christians: 122,724
Hindus: 30,441
Muslims: 1,281

ST Population - 122,791
Thadou (Kuki): 72,535
Tangkhul (Naga): 8,329
Vaiphei (Kuki): 7,357
Rest: 34,570

Missing data on Mao-Maram, Paomei (Naga): 127,108

Estimate of Naga percentage in the district population: 47.75%
Estimate of Kuki percentage in the district population: 28.17%
Estimate of rest: 12.19%
Estimate of Meitei population: 10.73%

Assembly constituencies (6): Karong (ST), Mao (ST), Saikul (ST), Saitu (ST), Tadubi (ST), Kangpokpi (General)
----------------------------------------------
b) Churachandpur district:
Population - 227,905 (= 100%)
Christians: 213,186 (93.5%)
Hindus: 10,538 (4.6%)
Muslims: 2,573 (1.13%)

ST Population of district - 212,482 (= 93.23% of district population)
Thadous (Kuki group): 54,929 (25.9% of ST population)
Paite (Kuki): 45,549 (21.4%)
Hmar (Kuki): 37,998 (17.9%)
Rest: 74,006 (34.8%)

Assembly constituencies (6): Churachandpur (ST), Hinglep (ST), Saikot (ST), Singhat (ST), Thanlon (ST), Tipaimukh (ST)
----------------------------------------------
c) Ukhrul district:
Population - 140,778 (= 100%)
Christians: 133,966 (95.2%)
Hindus: 5,687 (4.04%)
Muslims: 881 (0.6%)

ST Population of district - 134,493 (= 95.54% of district population)
Tangkhul (Naga group): 127,035 (94.5% of ST population)
Thadou (Kuki): 5,268 (3.92%)
Simte (Naga): 718 (0.5%)
Rest: 1,472 (1.09%)

Assembly constituencies (3): Chingai (ST), Phungyar (ST), Ukhrul (ST)
----------------------------------------------
d) Tamenglong district:
Population - 111,499 (= 100%)
Christians: 105,791 (94.88%)
Hindus: 3,187 (2.86%)
Muslims: 1,431 (1.28%)

ST Population of district - 106,349 (= 95.38% of district population)
Kabui (Naga group): 60,893 (57.26 % of ST population)
Kacha Naga (Naga): 34,368 (32.32 %)
Thadou (Kuki) - 6,888 (6.47%)
Rest: 4,200 (3.95%)

Assembly constituencies (3): Nungba (ST), Tamei (ST), Tamenglong (ST)
----------------------------------------------
e) Chandel district:
Population - 118,327 (= 100%)
Christians: 109,128 (92.2%)
Hindus: 5,701 (4.8%)
Muslims: 2,318 (1.96%)

ST Population of district - 108,779 (= 91.93% of district population)
Thadou (Kuki group): 35,086 (32.3% of ST population)
Anal (Naga): 20,851 (19.2%)
Maring (Naga): 19,828 (18.2%)
Rest: 33,014 (30.3%)

Assembly constituencies (2): Chandel (ST), Tengnoupal (ST)
----------------------------------------------

Conclusion 2: Thus, Churachandpur district is two-thirds Kuki majority, Ukhrul is Tangkhul Naga (same affinity as Thuingaleng Muivah who was prevented from entering Ukhrul district in 2011)-dominated, and Tamenglong is Kabui-Kacha Naga dominated. On the other hand, Chandel is evenly split between Kukis and Nagas. For Senapati district, the figures are controversial because no census was taken for Mao-Maram, Purul and Paomata subdivisions and the numbers for other subdivisions is believed to be inflated at the edges (see Linky, for example). But it is also widely believed that these three subdivisions are (at least historically) dominated by Naga affinities, specifically Mao-Maram and Pangmei tribes. On the other hand, the complete stalling of activity in the Sadar Hills subdivision by Kuki blockades over the last year shows that these regions could be Kuki dominated. Using this intuition and the 2001 census figures, our best guesstimate is that in Senapati district, the Nagas are ~55% in the district, with Kukis around ~30%, and Meiteis around ~15% (give or take 1 or 2% points either side for the three parties). This explains why a general Assembly constituency (Kangpokpi) is delimited in the Senapati district for the Meitei/general population.

Valley districts:
f) Imphal West:
Population - 444,382
Hindus: 330,994 (74.48%)
Others: 73,705 (16.59%)
Muslims: 19,124 (4.3%)

ST Population of district - 21,118 (= 4.75% of district population)
Dominant ST group: Kabui (Naga) - 9,042
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g) Imphal East:
Population - 394,876
Hindus: 240,347 (60.87%)
Others: 67,741 (17.16%)
Muslims: 62,932 (15.94%)

ST Population of district - 24,712 (= 6.26% of district population)
Dominant ST group: Tangkhul (Naga) - 5,896
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h) Thoubal district:
Population - 364,140
Hindus: 221,096 (60.72%)
Muslims: 86,849 (23.85%)
Others: 50,819 (13.96%)

ST Population of district - 4,274 (= 1.17% of district population)
Dominant ST group: Thadou (Kuki) - 1,154
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i) Bishnupur district:
Population - 206,368
Hindus: 148,903 (72.15%)
Others: 38,763 (18.78%)
Muslims: 14,194 (6.88%)

ST Population of district - 6,143 (= 2.95% of district population)
Dominant ST group: Kom (Kuki) - 2,229
---------------------------------------------
Conclusion 3: Thus, except for Thoubal district, Hindus and Others (followers of Sanamahi religion, nature-worshippers, etc.) dominate over the rest of the religious affinities.

To follow next: What does the Manipur verdict really mean?

Reflections on Indian Hockey: March 9, 2012

Sorry for the extended break.

Now that more than ten days has passed by from the date the Indian men sealed their entry to the Olympic Games, and most of the media rejoicing has winded down, it is time for a quiet reflection on the state-of-affairs of the game in India today. First of all,

1) Needless Rejoicing: While many newspapers seem to be elated with the Indian win over causes ranging from: i) "We have re-entered the elite stage of Olympics participation after the Santiago debacle of four years back", to ii) "Indian hockey has turned a corner", to iii) "Let's turn our due attention to hockey now that the cricket team is not doing that great", to iv) "I am showing my displeasure at cricket for cornering all the moneys, all the attention, and all the emotions by turning focus to hockey", and more. Needless to say, facts point elsewhere on whether one has to rejoice or not.

Fact 1: India lost out in the finals at Santiago to Britain four years back, yes, true. But the facts behind the loss have not been clearly laid out YET. Mirroring the current edition, India started off the tournament with a bang beating Russia 8-0, followed by 7-3 and 18-1 wins against Austria and Mexico (rank minnows all of them) before losing a close game against Britain 3-2 with the winning goal scored in the 69-th minute by Rob Moore (a standard Indian technique -- hopefully -- of old where goals were conceded in the last few minutes of play). India rounded off the regulation games with a 4-1 win over Chile. In the final classification match-up, Indians slipped up badly to lose 2-0 and the road to Beijing ended in a whimper. While many excuses can be found for the Santiago meltdown and not everything has been said on what exactly transpired on the day before the Finals against Britain (Linky), the most pertinent one still remains the poor team selection and the remarkable nepotism that still goes unnoticed to this day in selection matters, and the qualifying format which disallows even one bad day at the office. Yet the 2008 Indian team was not too bad as the uninformed media made it by calls of National Shame this and that.

Fact 2: That brings me to the point that Indian hockey was never too bad to turn a corner so-to-speak. Yes, it has had its share of weaknesses ranging from poor starts to tournaments (even against minnows and no-namers) to poor finishes with dwindling levels of enthusiasm where penalty corners/strokes/goals were/are conceded essentially at random. While Pakistan and South Korea would fight it out for the bronze medals, the Indian team would look and sound devastated and miss even the few points that would have pulled them out of the FIH ranking rut. Most of these problems were/are attributable to poor overall fitness levels further pushed to a corner by an even poorer understanding of sports nutrition and scientific recovery techniques, a rather belated strategic understanding of the fast-changing rules of the game and how new opportunities are manufactured out of small pushes, and a lack of sports psychologist/mental trainer that was often the maxime causa behind catastrophic meltdowns, ultimate disasters and needless heartbreaks.

Fact 3: Qualifying for the Olympics is no big deal. Even with the standard that is Indian hockey of the post-64 era. Even with the astroturf, even today, even this very second with all the machinations that FIH heaps on Indian (and Asian) hockey. As someone wisely said, it is not the destination, it is the bloody journey. The state of Indian hockey is not to be seen only in terms of tournament performances, but generally in terms of where the team stands in terms of prowess, aura, fame, standing in the comity of hockey playing nations, oomph, pride and of course in terms of performance on the field. To rejoice at small happinesses shows the mindset of the poorly informed who have not been regaled with the tales of Jaipal Singh Munda's honor uber alles, Richard Allen's swats, Balbir Singh's pomposity, Ashok Kumar's winning goal, and more. Yes, more. There is more to Indian hockey that is unknown than people have the capacity to absorb and beam.

Fact 4: Even specific to the Olympic Qualifier at Delhi, it must have been more of a surprise to see the Indian team shown the door than otherwise. For example, India has had a formidable record against Canada even within the last ten years. The last time India and Canada had locked horns in 2009, India had whipped Canada 6-0 in a 7-test away series (Linky). Despite the Sydney meltdown against Poland where a semifinal clash was missed by a whisker, the last time India had met Poland in the 2011 Champions Challenge, it was a 7-0 whitewash (Linky).

Fact 5: Cricket and hockey are not in a zero-sum fight for moneys or attention. At the end of the day, in terms of national identity matters (both historical as well as current), first football and then hockey and of late, cricket have played their due roles. Despite various systemic problems that deserve attention, most sports in India have generated role models worthy of emulation and have played the grease in soothing the different regional and communitarian tendencies. Hockey can perfectly be labeled the "minority sport" for being the succor and hope (in order of legacy) for Anglo-Indians, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, people who fall under the Scheduled Tribes category, people from the Northeast of India and so on. While cricket's emancipating role is still questionable, even this game has been opening up these days to audiences unreached so far. Both cricket and hockey can and should co-exist side-by-side and the ultimate schadenfreude of rejoicing at the cricket team's dismal performance over the hockey team's rebounding fortunes make no sense.

All that said, let us look at some of the issues that not many mediamen/women have talked of openly so far.

2) Compare and Contrast: In 2011, India played four tournaments -- the Azlan Shah Cup where India is one of the regular visitors (finishing a tame sixth losing to South Korea), the inaugural Asian Champions Trophy at Ordos where we placed first, a four team event in Australia with Pakistan and Australia-A as the other teams where we ended up rock-bottom, and the Champions Challenge that was conveniently shifted out of India by FIH on the pretext of the HI-IHF administrative tussle (more later) where we lost the finals to Belgium. In all, India's overall record in 2011 was 23 played, 8 won, 7 lost, 8 drawn, 67 goals scored and 61 conceded. In 2010, India played six tournaments including the Commonwealth Games, the Asian Games, the World Cup and the SAF Games. In addition, India also appeared in bilateral series with Belgium, France, and Netherlands. Overall, the 2010 record was 40-20-11-9-153-99. Such a drop in participation in international outings in the pre-Olympics year is sheer madness and someone at the HI board should take the blame for this.

Incidentally, in 2011, 9th ranked Argentina's record was 15-10-4-1-56-25. 8th ranked Pakistan's record was 48-24-8-16-110-112 (yes, more than twice the games India played!) whereas for 7th ranked New Zealand, it was 28-9-14-5-68-71. For the top-ranked Australian team, while the senior team played in the Champions Trophy, the Oceania Cup, the four team event in Australia, a European tour to Netherlands, Spain and a five nation challenge in France, and the Sultan Azlan Shah Cup, the Australian under-21 team played in the Oceania Pacific Cup, the Johor Cup, and the four team event in Australia.

All this comparison and contrasting business hides one main fact that I would like to highlight: New Zealand is the new Britain of Santiago. When the British team beat India at the Santiago qualifiers in 2008, that performance came from behind an extraordinary glut of participation in elite hockey events such as the Champions Trophy 2007 event where they were an invitee without any real claim to the event (Linky). The story behind this bizarreness has not been told clearly so far. With Pakistan (the intended host of the 2007 event) suffering from too many internal security problems, the FIH decided to shift the event to Malaysia. There again, while India bidded to host the event, it was duly awarded to Malaysia because of the ruse of visa problems that Pakistani players could suffer from. Noone called the pony on this trick because only with the 2010 World Cup in Delhi did we see that the Government of India would not expressly deny visas to players, even Pakistani players without a case that is gold standard from a legal eagle point. In any case, PHF complained that the Pakistan team should have received the exposure their team would have had they hosted the event and hence, the FIH decided to accommodate Pakistan as an additional participant at the KL edition. To make it an even number and a full pool (go figure the logic for that argument!), the highest ranked at that point (was it?!) British team was invited as the eighth participant (Linky).

Compare that with the event being shifted out of India in 2011 in the last minute to New Zealand due to the scuffle between HI and IHF. India not only did not get compensated by virtue of precedent, but New Zealand benefited as the host. As the winner of the previous Champions Challenge (with the winning goal coming in the last five minutes in a flurry of questionable refereeing -- Linky), New Zealand had been a participant at the 2010 Champions Trophy in Germany. Back to 2011, in addition, two invitational spots were bestowed to Pakistan and South Korea. A six team event had again become an eight team event again, but with the host booted out not due to safety issues, but politics and sponsorship money issues (which had come into question due to the sub-judice nature of the matter at that point). In addition, the FIH played benefactor to other Asian teams that did nt deserve to be in the Champions Trophy in the first place because of the need to avoid complaints of pure bias against Asian teams. Needless to say, New Zealand's star has been rising in international hockey with their team ranked at an all-time high of 7th and beating Australia for the first time since 1988 in 2011. All this illustrates the Malcolm Gladwell maxim: performance is not only innate smartness or talent, but can also be replicated with practice (either that practice is earned or awarded in a collusory manner is immaterial).

3) Put the House in Order: Any de facto official sporting body that claims to run the game cannot be divested of such criminal negligence as not arguing in terms of precedence. Then there is the Court of Arbitration in Sport -- an avenue that Indian associations have taken to very easily these days in the light of the flurry of doping catches in athletics and weightlifting. The fact that HI was cahoots with FIH till the conduct of the 2010 World Cup (and beyond) only makes this departure from arguing for what benefits the team the most a serious anomaly that can never be excused. In fact, a sporting body such as HI that repeatedly puts its own interest ahead of the players' interest who play the game deserves even lesser mercy. On top of that, if such deeds as double-speak (in collusion with the FIH) happen on the World Series Hockey (WSH) event which would have financially benefitted the players, it deserves absolutely no sympathies. On WSH, from Linky

Sources said that the sports ministry is said to have played a key role in the negotiations and has told HI to ensure that it does not pressurise players who intend to take part in the event after the qualifiers.

When the HI called for a national camp immediately after the Qualifier win citing the Long Term Development Plan which had initially mentioned a camp from March 13, it can only be seen as yet another exhibit in the long plan to pull the rug from beneath the floor of WSH-IHF-Nimbus Television-players association, all to please FIH which has its own reasons to avoid IHF like a plague, most of which have to do with financial dealings rather than real care for Indian hockey. In any case, the last has not been said on this matter by the FIH and as S. Thyagarajan points out, the FIH would do well to stop acting like the overlords of hockey in India when they dont act as such overlords in Europe especially with the Eurohockey and indoor hockey leagues (Linky). And it is time that HI called the bluff on FIH for shaming them endlessly in a process that befits a school kid with a playful attitude.

4) Enough Rhetoric: But more than this criminal negligence rhetoric, focus should be on what events the Indian team will take part in the run-up to the London games. For top-ranked Australia, the dice is already loaded when they take on Netherlands and Argentina in a home invitational event in February, China and Japan in bilateral series in March, a European tour and test event scheduled for April-May, and a bilateral series with New Zealand in June leading to the Olympic Games. From what has been heard from the Long Term Development Plan, invitations have been received from Lahore and Santander (Spain) to take part in four nation events. The test event in London has also invited India and there is always the Azlan Shah Cup. Of these, the event in Lahore is saddled with the India-Pakistan conundrum and as much as I would like to see the hockey team go there (because we badly badly need the practice --- in contrast to any other sporting visits to Pakistan), this trip is too complicated at this stage. While it has an "in-principle" blessing from the Ministry of Sports and Youth Affairs, it is also going to need the blessings of the Ministry of External Affairs, Cabinet Committee on Security, the Prime Minister's Office, key members of the Parliament and even the BCCI for wider ramifications on what such a trip would mean for the more eye-catching Indian cricket team tour. Would that signal the final nail in the coffin of the November 26, 2008 Mumbai attacks "We will be revenged" showdown? Would that signal an all-round thaw in relations with Pakistan with the return of some bonhomie between elites that run the power circles at both sides? Would that be a one-off event and not a precedent? Would life still be ok if any further attacks happen on sporting teams to Pakistan? Too many questions, too many contenders and too few answers. Which is why HI should focus on the trip to Santander and may be even a wider Euro tour to shore up the dour Indian defence. And yes, the Indian defence is the shakiest of the lot. Will HI clean up its act and get going, your call is as good as mine.

5) What happened elsewhere: While WSH has been sputtering along, some other on-field and off-field incidents have left a sweet and sour taste in everyone who can observe's mouth. While the initial matches of the Olympic Qualifier were played before empty stands, the Finals was a riot act with the gates open to all and sundry. The essential reason: cheap tickets for the Finals in response to a poor showing for the expensive tickets of the first few days. Delhi has been a blessing in disguise as a sporting crowd for not only football matters (Dr. Ambedkar Stadium is always jampacked, and so is Major Dhyan Chand Stadium). The only one left behind is Feroze Shah Kotla and that is despite the Najafgarh man's exploits. The only explanation I can think of is that Delhi's Northeast/Bengali/Punjabi/illegal Bangladeshi population is growing at a far higher rate than the native residents of Delhi. Well, I could be wrong.

With Arjun Halappa and Rajpal Singh shown the final door, and they joining the long-since-departed Prabhjyot Singh who was the man-of-the-moment under Jose Brasa and the more recently departed "Michael-Chang-of-Indian-hockey" Dhananjay Mahadhik, the last could be close on the ring-a-ring-a-roses captaincy of the Jose Brasa era that was famously witnessed in the Canada tour of 2009. If Arjun Halappa and Rajpal Singh cannot make the top-48 of Indian hockey, someone has got to be snorting some real powerful stuff. There is only one true explanation: power politics, disciplinary action, and unrequited apologies.

That said, the top-48 of the squad are not the moral custodians of hockey talent in India. As coach Harendra Singh said recently, the WSH is throwing up new talent than the government-appointed Selection Committee of HI can see. One notable talent is the son of Vasudevan Bhaskaran, Laxman Karan. Sadly, like Dhananjay Mahadhik of the bygone era, Laxman Karan will get the eye-in very late, if at all. May be an ICL-like truce can be had down the line for hockey? May be. But, in any case, more players are streaming from the tribal belt of Orissa and Jharkhand and a big line-up of Manipuri players are also lurching in the limelite. Truly, Chinglensana Singh has opened up the Manipur sporting world to hockey after boxing, football and archery took their due shares. Having a foreign-born coach is no solution to India's hockey unending woes. An ideal coach is often not a former player, but when a former player becomes an ideal coach, it signals an opportunity that should be taken with both hands. Ramandeep Singh, Mohammed Riaz, Jude Felix, Dilip Tirkey, Jugraj Singh, AB Subbiah -- the coterie that is pushing up the Harendra Singh's of old is a nice sweet taste amidst the cacophony of yobs that yak more than they can deliver.

6) And finally: If there is one BIG problem that needs attention today, it is the administrative stalemate that is caused by the permanent spat of Hockey India with the other defunct body in the running of affairs -- the Indian Hockey Federation. Much of India's woes in hockey will dissolve itself if the administrative apparatus is efficient, transparent and accountable -- a far-cry from what it is now.