Pakistanisch hockey: eine Komödie, ohne gleich

A mild interlude.... 

Unlike many hockey fans in India, I am not in favor of an India-Pakistan hockey revival except as a prop to lift India up if (and god forbid that happenstance) India is doing far badly than Pakistan in hockey. Thankfully, those days seem to be far behind and even as I speak, I hope not to Manjrekar them. Nor for that matter am I a big fan of India-Pakistan bilateral cricket matches, despite the huge economic stimuli such matches can be for/in India. Nevertheless, I like to observe Pakistani hockey, its decline, its players and their socio-economic-cultural moorings, the flair for exquisite showmanship beyond the normal in some of them, and the state-of-affairs in terms of administration to see any signs/hope of common-sense -- a commodity that is often lacking in Indian hockey administration.

One such observation forced me to write this piece. The Pakistani hockey team is missing from the ongoing Commonwealth Games and therein lies the sad comedy of errors that is Pakistan hockey administration. 

Every major event such as the Olympic Games, Asian Games, Commonwealth Games, etc. has a deadline for each participating National Olympic Committee (NOC) to enter its final list of athletes that are eligible to compete at that event (having crossed a certain pre-set performance threshold, having met the drug-free compliance policy, etc. being the usual criteria). In the case of the Commonwealth Games, that deadline for all sporting events was set for June 11, 2014 (see Footnote 1) even though different sporting events had different/specific deadlines. In the case of hockey, this deadline was August 16, 2013 (significantly ahead of the Commonwealth Games, but understandable on account of organizational issues). 

Pakistan Hockey Federation (PHF) refused to send an entry (a list of players) by the August 16 deadline because it refused to recognize the authority of the Pakistan Olympic Association (POA), which had re-elected Syed Arif Hasan for a third-term Presidency in Feb. 2012. For the record, Syed Arif Hasan (Linky) is an ex-Pakistan Army guy. The International Olympic Committee (think of such notable examples as Juan Antonio Samaranch or even the famous one -- Pierre de Coubertin from Linky, or individual sports federation Presidents such as Leandro Negre, Sepp Blatter, etc.) does not forbid the re-election of the President for as long as he/she pleases (some tenures last decades) and as long as he/she is re-elected by a simple majority of the eligible voters in the POA elections which is usually overseen by a retired Judge and a government observer for purposes of neutrality (as is the case in India). However, the Pakistan government run Pakistan Sports Board (PSB) objected to the re-election citing its national policy of a two tenure, thus bringing it in direct conflict with the POA (Linky1, Linky2). 

A rival group (also, primarily led by Army men) in the POA went ahead and formed a splinter organization. Somehow this group obtained some traction from the Ministry of Inter-Provincial Coordination and the Federal government as also with the PSB, thus putting the continued recognition of POA in ambiguity (Linky1, Linky2). Leading the charge on the POA was an Army guy named Muhammad Akram Sahi, who happens to be the younger brother of Muhammad Afzal Sahi (Linky), a leading PML(N) politician and a close confidante of Nawaz Sharif. With Sharif's re-election in early 2013, the POA's recognitional ambiguity became one of revoked authority, much to the chagrin of the IOC. 

Given this background, back to PHF. PHF was/and is still led by Qasim Zia (a former Olympian to his credit) as well as a PPP politician (Linky) that was ruling Pakistan till the re-election of Nawaz Sharif. The National Sports Policy (NSP) of "two-tenures and no more" was brought in by the PML(Q) government in 2005 (Linky) and also seen in a favorable light by the PPP government (with which PML(Q) formed a coalition) as a means to pull the rug from underneath the feat of PML(N) backed politicians, army-men, administrators, businessmen and bureaucrats (the same complex ensemble that also thrives in India with the only major difference being replacing army-men with judges) that had dominated National Sports Federations (NSFs). Qasim Zia could not go past his party's diktats and its attempts at neutralizing power-grab attempts by its rival party. Hence, the PHF's reluctance to send in an entry to the Commonwealth Games. The change of tenure to the Nawaz Sharif government initially saw no change in the NSP because of the gains that the Nawaz faction would make by taking over the POA. However, as the crisis continued and the IOC stood steadfast in its attempts at de-recognizing Pakistan from the Olympic movement till the government gave in, and the slow realization of how the PML(N) would be the biggest loser from the insistence on the NSP meant that the Nawaz government slowly backed away and then recognized the Arif Hasan faction in the POA. So, the net result (see Footnote 2) of this tragi-comedic farce is that Pakistan still remains in the Olympic movement and its 62 member team is participating the Commonwealth Games after the Lahore High Court cleared their way. 

But the Pakistan hockey team missed out on its Sept. 16, 2013 extended deadline also and will miss the Commonwealth Games. They might have also not been able to defend the Asian gold at Incheon, but they barely managed to make the deadline for the hockey competition at Incheon and will hence compete there. However, there may be some confusion in the next few days since the official list of players did not include some well-known players. Yawn. 

Now what does this mean? For a team that missed out on the 2014 World Cup by failing to be in the top-3 (and even the top-4 lest some openings fall open following the automatic qualification of other teams -- Pakistan finished 5th behind 4th placed Japan and in any case, no trickle-downs happened to Japan also) at the World league semi-finals (see Footnote 3) at Johor Bahru in June-July 2013 (Linky), to be missing out on the Commonwealth Games, which would have exposed the team to much needed competition (from at least two of India, Newzealand, Australia and England) is sheer chutzpah of the highest order. To lack senses to the point till which the entry to the Asian Games was also threatened is serious ability to inflict crime on the well-being of many (there are many hockey families that depend on the sustenance of the paychecks from PHF, which in itself depends on the well-being of hockey) for the benefaction of a few select elites. Hopefully, for some Indians who are aware of such juvenile attempts at pointing a gun to one's own temple and the Army's stranglehold on almost every affair in the country, this is no news. 

In contrast, even at the height of the HI-IHF imbroglio/impasse, neither organization prevented the Indian team from making it to the 2010 World Cup (which conveniently was hosted in India and would have drawn considerable horror from everyone around even beyond the horrors that were the Kalmadi-run Commonwealth Games of 2010, if the IHF had protested legally). Nothing more than a symbolic protest was done to prevent the 2012-Olympics bound hockey team go to London, by which time the HI-IHF crisis had kind of blown away in favor of the HI. Despite such fortunate occurrences, it is highly improbable that the IHF (or the HI) would have prevented the Indian team from going for a certain event, provided they qualified for it. The contrast with Pakistan is thus complete. 

The absence of Pakistan paved the way for Trinidad & Tobago to make their long way to Glasgow and earn some experience at the hands of considerably superior hockey teams. So far, the essentially unranked women's team has given a fight to the much higher ranked Canadian team. The much lower ranked men's team has given a better fight to the more higher ranked Canadian men's team too. While T&T has got whipped by everyone else, Pakistan's loss is T&T's gain, even they will agree on this despite the pains from the whipping and the long healing time that might take. 

Does this mean that the Asian games are spooked for Pakistan? Time will tell, and hopefully they tell a better story for India. But if lack of matchplay experience is an excuse that has to be peddled following the usual ululation following a disaster in Pakistan, then the PHF will have none else to blame but themselves. And Pakistani hockey fans (if they still exist) have my deepest sympathies despite the considerable anathema I have for an India-Pakistan hockey contest. My extended condolences at missing the World Cup at The Hague. I still cannot forget/forgive Santiago 2008 and a 1008 poxes on the English team for the cheating they did to get to Beijing. And more pox on the Chinese team which took the host spot based on a dubious Doha Asiad outcome. Sadly, for Pakistan fans, there are no ready enemies to point at except the PHF. 

Footnotes: 

1) Several countries missed this June 11 deadline because of varying reasons and the Commonwealth Games Federation still accommodated them at a later date, but not without a fuss (Linky). 

2) The only close analog (I can think off-hand) at spooking oneself happened in the Indian tennis world: Linky. 

3) The biennial World league semi-finals (which is played in two pools) is the new FIH-adopted method to earn qualifications to the World Cup and Olympic Games, in addition to the five continental automatic qualifiers + the host. The host country needs to cross a certain threshold of qualification, which will be missed by Brazil by the end of 2014 (the deadline for host qualification) thus eliminating them from being a part of the hockey competition for the Rio games of 2016. Thus, seven spots will remain open from the World league semi-finals of 2014-15 for the Rio games. The World league events is a four round event with Rds. 1 and 2 being the feeder for the semi-finals and the semi-finals providing the teams for the final. The consequences of this system are: 1) continued dominance of the European teams at world events (more on this in a later post), 2) elimination of ad-hoc qualification events for entry to the World Cup and Olympic games thus avoiding a Santiago 2008 type "one failure meltdown" for teams like India, 3) possible redundancy in terms of qualifications for these events by being in the top-3 (for sure) or top-4 (with high probability -- there is a luck of the draw as India made it as the 4th ranked team in one of the pools while Japan missed out on the other pool), 4) a single unified and well-understood, well-bid qualification tournament, and 5) continuation of the Champions Trophy as a bling-only event without any big impacts on more ceremonial events such as Olympics or the World Cup. There goes another Pakistani invention. 

Comment on Pakistan hockey

Shazia Hasan writes the following on the state of Pakistani hockey (Linky). Unfortunately, I cannot agree with her more, the London episode is going to be a disaster unless of course the young Pakistani team is going to use that as the precise excuse to push above the bar, which has happened often in the past. But then this is not a long-term solution, sooner than later the "above the bar" adrenaline will cool down. I want people such as Shakeel Abbasi, Imran Warsi, Rehan Butt and Zeeshan Ashraf to play in the Olympics.

For one, the Hockey India apparatus has been toothless in fighting the FIH menace and there is no better candidate in today's world politics to thumb a nose at useless world bodies such as the UN or the NATO or Geneva Convention than Pakistan. At least such a behavior from PHF (under the express order of the ISI-D/Army) will make the spineless HI apparatus to follow the lead (hopefully!) and start hitting with the belt of being a billion+ person country.

For two, lo and behold, India and Pakistan meet each other, I dont want it to be a dud contest where one team comes up with a B-team and punches above the bar to make a vain attempt at winning the contest. For many, the Rome spectacle may have healed, but not for me. So sorry, but thats how life is. There is no camaraderie on the field, its a war, Total WAR. And thats the only thing I agree with the Johan Cryuff school of thought.

For three, there is no equal competition to the European toilet-sized nations, but the AHF. Unfortunately, this clique is a three-way split between India, Pakistan and Malaysia with the Koreans picking the jars at random. Datu S. Alagendra has his own axe to grind and its a zero-sum game in that sense, and it need not be so. While I dont love the Ordos ACT experience or the 4th place finish in the 2010 Asian Games or the locus standi of Qatar hosting the next Asia Cup, initiatives for events such as the World Cup, the Champions Trophy, etc., have come from Asia (sorry, could nt misappropriate the South Asian bug that is so common in Guardian-speak, if you get it!).

For four, it is mightily unfair to penalize Shakeel Abbasi or Imran Warsi (who did play for the team I will always rally behind, of course) for a crime of the PHF/FIH making. I just dont like the Cheetahs name, of course, its more like Madras Superstars or Madras Raakit-rajas, thats more in tune with the ethos of Madras.

For five, good subcontinental hockey is a dying (some say, dead) tradition and as much as I would like to see/hear about the likes of Rashid Mehmood, that should not be at the cost of people who are now suspended.

For six, this is most likely Sohail Abbas' last major event before his impending retirement, and noone wants to ruin it. The only equally-comparable event is to see Dilip Tirkey's fourth Olympics appearance get ruined at Santiago, followed by more ruinations at the Punjab Gold Cup, WC and the CWG.

PS: And the Indian media can learn a thing or two from the Pakistani media coverage of hockey, someone had to say it first. Pakistani media is more well-versed with the global machinations and the rulebook of different events than the Indian media has shown it to be from many past exhibits that I have noted. Unfortunate for a b+ country.

Two education related statistics (Pakistan, India and China)

On adult literacy levels in Pakistan over the years, from the article by Anne Goujon and Asif Wazir of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis:
Year -- No education -- Primary Incomplete -- Primary Complete -- Lower Secondary -- Upper Secondary -- Higher Education Qualified (first Male, then Female -- all numbers in percentages)

1972 M 68 03 10 14 03 02
1972 F 92 01 03 03 01 01

1981 M 66 -- 12 16 03 03
1981 F 88 -- 05 05 01 01

1998 M 48 06 12 24 05 06
1998 F 74 04 07 10 03 03

2005 M 34 05 15 29 08 09
2005 F 64 03 11 13 04 05

Observations:
1) From the above data, the percentage of literates in Pakistan is growing (in both males and females) over the years -- which should not be very surprising. Every country makes progress on literacy levels if you give them enough time.
2) But this is not how to read the above statistics. To me, the differential in literacy between males and females is a clear indicator of the level of violence in that society (see related posts: Linky 1 and Linky 2). In Pakistan, the illiteracy differential between females and males in Pakistan is 24% in 1972, 22% in 1981, 26% in 1998 and 30% in 2005.
3) From their more detailed paper (Linky), the literacy differential between males and females is 7% in 1951, 19% in 1961, 8% in 1972, 19% in 1981, 23% in 1998, 24% in 2004 and 24% in 2009. On both extremes (illiteracy differential as well as literacy differential), Pakistan is in pakistan (aka deep do-do) and the level of violence is consequently very much explainable.
4) Breaking these figures into provincial statistics from p. 13 of Linky, we have the following differential literacy rates:

Year Punjab Sindh NWFP Baluchistan
1972 19% 19.9% 18.4% 10.5%
1981 20% 18.1% 19.3% 10.9%
1998 22.1% 19.72% 32.57% 21.5%
2004 21.3% 19.80% 38.15% 26.41%

5) Clearly, Punjab and Sindh have stabilized in terms of differential literacy rates and if my hypothesis is correct, then the violence levels in Punjab and Sindh should be pretty much consistent from 1970 and up. Either this trend was not recognized before or the hypothesis of literacy differentials correlating to violence is not completely capturing the picture or the data is being fudged somewhere.
6) On the other hand, NWFP and Baluchistan see a massive jump in the differential literacy rates in the post-Soviet/Taliban setting. While the revolution in Iran (1979) marks the turning point in terms of an upshot for worldwide terrorism trends, the violence level in the neighborhood is slow by a good 10 years. This is not explainable. While terrorism/revolutionary activities spills over very quickly into the neighborhood, why is there a lag in Pakistan? Was it that the CIA arming of mujahideen also come with caveats that prevented a quick Talibanization of the Pakistani mindset?

Salary for higher ed in India, following up from Linky. Some comments from Linky:
1) Two countries -- China and India -- have been the focus of many global education watchers in recent years as they have moved rapidly to expand capacity and expertise in their university systems. The study shows India holding its own in international faculty salary comparisons (factoring in cost of living), but not China. This reality has led Chinese universities, Altbach noted, to offer very high Western-style salaries, to a very small number of academics (typically Chinese expats recruited home). The numbers are such a small share of the total Chinese academic labor pool that they don't influence the Chinese totals, he said, but without these deviations from salary norms, China couldn't attract those researchers. India, in contrast, does not permit universities to deviate from salary norms for superstars.
2) Another area where the countries differ is in the difference between entry-level salaries (averages for assistant professors) and those at the top of their fields (full professors). Across all 28 countries studied, the average ratio of the senior salary average to the junior salary average was 2.06 to 1 (factoring in the PPP). The gaps between senior and junior pay levels were greatest in China (4.3 to 1) and smallest in Norway (1.3 to 1). Western European nations generally had low ratios.
3) Monthly Average Salaries of Public Higher Education Faculty, Using U.S. PPP Dollars

Country -- Entry Level Pay -- Average Pay -- Top Pay

Armenia $405 $538 $665
Russia 433 617 910
China 259 720 1,107
Ethiopia 864 1,207 1,580
Kazakhstan 1,037 1,553 2,304
Latvia 1,087 1,785 2,654
Mexico 1,336 1,941 2,730
Czech Republic 1,655 2,495 3,967
Turkey 2,173 2,597 3,898
Colombia 1,965 2,702 4,058
Brazil 1,858 3,179 4,550
Japan 2,897 3,473 4,604
France 1,973 3,484 4,775
Argentina 3,151 3,755 4,385
Malaysia 2,824 4,628 7,864
Nigeria 2,758 4,629 6,229
Israel 3,525 4,747 6,377
Norway 4,491 4,940 5,847
Germany 4,885 5,141 6,383
Netherlands 3,472 5,313 7,123
Australia 3,930 5,713 7,499
United Kingdom 4,077 5,943 8,369
Saudi Arabia 3,457 6,002 8,524
United States 4,950 6,054 7,358
India 3,954 6,070 7,433
South Africa 3,927 6,531 9,330
Italy 3,525 6,955 9,118
Canada 5,733 7,196 9,485