New paper draft on models for terrorist activity

For those interested, I have uploaded my first take on a model for terrorist activity and methodologies to detect spurts/downfalls based on this model Linky. This is the draft version of the QMDNS talk mentioned here: Linky. A bit overdue... As is usual, feedback will be much appreciated.

In terms of India, the more relevant question is what does such a model mean for the maoist menace? Surely, detecting spurts in the activity in the past is not a difficult exercise if the model is reasonably accurate. But can new spurts be predicted (still under the assumption that the model is accurate)? Is the model accurate? Good questions all, for which I need better data. In any case, some answers will follow in September :).