Afghanistan Minerals! A game India has to play

Baghlan Province, Afghanistan

"Afghanistan is seeking investors for 'World Class' mineral resources" reads Bloomberg Businessweek's article title. Guardian helpfully provides the Baghlan Province's picture, a province where some of these minerals exist.

Is Afghanistan going to be the Saudia Arabia of South East Asia? Well some in India think so. The recent India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Pact while it does good to Afghanistan, India and America, one would advice some caution in rushing into these accords because of promise of richness from a 'foreign' source. It would pay India or any other country to do its own due diligence. It is just common sense. However, is there a way for India to conduct its own survey? Probably not. So due diligence is almost ruled out. India could use its connection in Afghanistan to investigate the truth of the matters. By the way, say, India manages to bag some mining areas and extracts the ores, how is it going to transport them out of Afghanistan? Through Pakistan. I do not think so. It has to be through Chah Bahar port in Iran. India better get into the good books of Iran. America won't like that. Tough luck for somebody - America or India.

There are several theories floating around the existence of minerals, some of them are:
1. There are no minerals, it is a just a ruse to motivate the good Taliban beat the crap out of the bad Taliban.
2. There are no minerals, it is just a ruse to motivate the regional players, like India, to enter Afghanistan and participate in the 'recovery'.
3. There are minerals, but the RoI is many years away. Considering we live in the times where Quarterly financial reports make headlines, can a company afford to spend capital in a country like Afghanistan and wait for years?

I say it is wise to be suspicious and play it with caution, and not rush into judgments and agreements. It is not like Pakistan is going to take away Afghanistan :-) You might believe in one of those (conspiracy) theories or think human ingenuity can address all problems of life, and if minerals exist in Afghanistan, some company will extract it and profit. So why not an Indian company, you ask me. I have no answer. This is where I invite you to ponder about reading rest of the blog :-) Is it worth your time, when I do not have any answer but just a gut feeling to be suspicious. Some times such gut feeling might have to take a back seat, especially when one considers China's presence in Afghanistan.

New York Times, a reputed newspaper is an institution in itself. It provides news, articles and commentaries to thousands of clients worldwide. Newspapers around the globe carry syndicate columns; one could say New York Times sets the American national agenda and talking points that are discussed threadbare by TV anchors and Radio talk-show hosts. New York Times has such a good reputation that Conservatives in America like to bash the newspaper, yet have to read it to stay on top of national and international news. So with such a reputation it is a ripe conduit for government leaks to reach the public. Through out the World, media and government enjoy a symbiotic relationship - they need each other to survive, it is more true for democracies. New York Times was used in the war mongering that led to Iraq war, it was so shamed that it had to publish an apology in 2004.

How much of the 2010 news about Afghanistan Minerals was really a news and not a American government plant? Only time will tell. Let us look at some of the startling news again.

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